Water scarcity in the Arab world:

how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’?

Rania el Masri, Ph.D.Environment and Energy Policy Specialist

Cairo, May 8, 2012

2

State of our water commons

3

1958

-196

2

1963

-196

7

1968

-197

2

1973

-197

7

1978

-198

2

1983

-198

7

1988

-199

2

1993

-199

7

1998

-200

2

2003

-200

7

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Mauritania

Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia UAE Yemen

Total renewable water resources per capita, 1958-2007 (m3/capita/yr)

4

Total renewable water resources per capita (2008) (m3/capita/yr)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Water Crisis level (< 500)

Absolute water scarcity level (< 165)

Water scarcity level (< 1000)

5

Kuwai

tUAE

Qatar

Yem

en

Saud

i Ara

bia

Libya

Bahra

in

Jord

an

Alger

ia

Djibou

ti

Tuni

sia

Oman

Egyp

t

Syria

Moroc

co

Leba

non

Suda

nIra

q

Maurit

ania

-

500.00

1,000.00

1,500.00

2,000.00

2,500.00

3,000.00

3,500.00

4,000.00

Total renewable water resources per capita (2008 and 2016) (m3/capita/yr)

Absolute water scarcity level (< 165)

Water Crisis level (< 500)

Water scarcity level (< 1000)

6

Bahra

in

Jord

an

Yem

en

Tuni

sia

Saud

i Ara

bia

Qatar

Alger

ia

Egyp

t

Moroc

co

Leba

non

Libya

Oman UAE

Syria Ira

q0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1955 1990 2000 2025

Freshwater availability: 1955-2025(m3/capita/yr)

7

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1960 1999 2025

Annual per capita water supply; 1960-1999; projections for 2025

8

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

annual per capita water supply (m3/capita/yr)

Available Renewable Water Resources per capita, 1950 -

9

Qatar

Kuwai

t

Saud

i Ara

bia

Oman Ira

q

Jord

an

Leba

non

Syria

Moroc

co

Alger

ia

Tuni

siaLib

ya

Egyp

t

Maurit

ania

Suda

n

Yem

en

Wor

ld0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Population Percent change, 1961-2007

10

Total fertility in the Arab world: 1970 - 2010

Although fertility rates in the Arab world are declining…

11

Population growth (millions): 1970 - 2025

Bahra

in

Oman

Qatar

Saud

i Ara

bia

UAE

Kuwai

tIra

q

Leba

non

Syria

Jord

an

Egyp

t

Alger

ia

Moroc

co

Tuni

siaLib

ya

Yem

en0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 2001 2025

12

population growth: 1950-2050

Arab region: among the fastest population growth rates (> 2%/year) GCC population: to

double by 2040 Maghreb population:

to double by 2060

13

State of our water commons Decreasing supply

Aquifers and groundwater heavily mined Increasing demand (decreasing supply per capita)

Population growth Increasing urbanization, Increasing economic and

social demands

PlusProjected impacts of climate change

decreasing supply and increasing demand

14

Impact of climate change on water availability in Middle East and North Africa in 2050Source: Milly et al., published in Nature.

15

State of our water commons: leakage

16

Water supply and uses

For the Near East as a region, it is estimated that only 30% of the flood water used in irrigation ever reaches the crop. (UNDP, HDR2006)

17

Djib

ou

ti

Ku

wa

it

Ba

hra

in

Jo

rda

n

Ma

uri

tan

ia

Qa

tar

Alg

eri

a

Om

an

So

ma

lia

Le

ba

no

n

Ye

me

n

Tu

nis

ia

Mo

roc

co

Eg

yp

t

UA

E

Su

da

n

Sa

ud

i Ara

bia

Sy

ria

Lib

ya

Ira

q0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Area equipped for irrigation Rainfed cultivated area

Although irrigated agriculture accounts for more than 80% of water use in the region, irrigated areas are limited and represent only 29% of the arable lands and 32% of the cultivated areas

18

Algeria

Bahrai

nEg

ypt

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait*

Leban

onLib

ya

Morocco

Oman** OPT

Saudi A

rabia

Syria

Tunisia UAE

Yemen

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Unaccounted-for Water (%) (2010)

Source: World Water Intelligence, 2011

19

Impacts of our water crisis

20

Som

alia

Maurit

aniaLib

ya

Yem

en

Suda

nIra

q

Alger

ia

Moroc

co OPT

Djibou

ti

Oman

Syria

Tuni

sia

Comor

os

Jord

an

Egyp

t

Kuwai

t

Leba

non

Qatar

UAE0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Djibouti Iraq Morocco Oman Somalia Sudan Yemen0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Rural Urban

Population without access to improved water sources (2010)

Internal differences in access to improved water sources (2010)

Impact of water crisis: who gets water?

21

Som

alia

Mau

ritan

ia

Suda

n

Com

oros

Djib

outi

Yem

en

Mor

occo

Iraq

Tuni

sia OPT

Alge

ria

Egyp

t

Syria

Libya

Jord

an

UAE

Om

an

Kuw

ait

Leba

non

Qat

ar

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Som

alia

Maurit

ania

Djibou

ti

Comor

os

Yem

en

Moroc

co

Tuni

sia Iraq

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Rural Urban

Population without access to improved sanitation facilities (2010)

Internal differences in access to improved sanitation facilities (2010)

Impact of water crisis: whose water is clean?

22

(Potential) impacts of decreased supply and Increased demand

Direct impacts … increased cost … decreased quality (eg: increased

salinization) Indirect impacts

… increased poverty … increased health risks …risk to livelihoods in agricultural sector

Decreased ecosystem health

23

Responses to our water crisis: getting to sustainable

24

HUMAN SOCIETY

ENVIRONMENT

State: water security crisis

IMPACTS

Human well-being:

Economic, social goods & services

RESPONSES

Mitigation and adaptation

PRESSURES

DRIVERS

Ecosystem services

Farmer liveilhoods

Population growth

Increased consumption

Increased resource exploitation

Climate change

Agricultural mismanagement

Decreasing supply

Decreasing quality

25

Current Responses Desalination

GCC: more than 50% of their domestic water use consumption comes from desalination

Energy usage: drinking oil? Impact on marine life

Privatization UAE, Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco: PPP Bottled water consumption (UAE and Lebanon) Risk of cost

Reuse of drainage water Practiced on a large scale in Egypt More limited scale in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

26

Additional necessary responses Reduce consumption (from repairing

infrastructure to family planning) Develop a water commons Develop fair pricing – not ‘full cost recovery’ Plan for all water resources in a comprehensive

package Sequential water use Wise agricultural management (from exporting

virtual water to farmer support) Water as a human right

27

HUMAN SOCIETY

ENVIRONMENT

State: water security crisis

IMPACTS

Human well-being:

Economic, social goods & services

RESPONSES • Reduce consumption• Develop a water

commons• Water as a human

right

PRESSURES

DRIVERS

Ecosystem services

Farmer liveilhoods

Population growth

Increased consumption

Increased resource exploitation

Climate change

Agricultural mismanagement

Decreasing supply

Decreasing quality

28

Water under occupation and apartheid: Palestine

29

Theft of Palestinian Water