Voting and Opinion Forming

11/7/2011

Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form

• Upon completion of this course, students will be able to:– discuss and critically analyze political events in the

United States government– identify and explain the role of formal and

informal institutions and their effect on policy. – assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without

resorting to partisan bickering.

Office Hours and Readings

• Chapter 5• Chapter 4 (110-129)

• Office Hours– Tuesday 8-10:30– Wednesday 8-9

"The most accurate form of public opinion polling is the vote." Walter Dean Burnham

What is Political Opinion

• those opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed -- V.O. Key

• Why do politicians Follow it?

POLITICAL SOCIALIZATIONHow We Learn about Politics

Political Socialization

• The process of learning about political issues and forming opinions

• How we learn about politics

• Same as religion, culture and language.

We Learn the Apollo American Creed

• Freedom

• Equality

• Support for the System

We Are Proud to Be Americans

The Family

• We spend tons of time with them

• The more time, the more influence

Why Family is Important

• Socio-economic status

• Primacy Principle

• Structuring Principle

• It Ebbs as we get older

What We Take out of it: Party ID

• We often get our parents partisanship

• Values

What about Schools

• Teach the status quo

• Correlate with our parents

• Ritualizes Nationalism

The First Things We Learn

• Little kids confuse political and religious authority

• The Flag is Good

Early Childhood

• The President

• Police

• Neither can do wrong

Later On

• We learn more concepts

• Government as civics lesson

• We get more cynical

Off To College

• The Percentage of people going to college continues to rise

• College often correlates with parents SES

The College Effect

The role of your professors

The Role of Peers

• Often Reinforce our Parents views

• We do not tend to discuss politics

• Our friends often share our SES and values

Work Peers

• We work with people like us

• They share our SES

• Our views are unlikely to change

The Mass Media and Political Socialization

• We Receive a lot of information

• Not all of it sticks

• Those who could learn the most, watch the least

We Are Pretty Clueless

So What often shapes our views

• Projection

• Adoption

• Partisanship

DETERMINING POLITICAL OPINION

America is Obsessed with Polling

• Why Polls– Raise issues– Gauge support– Get specific opinions

• Everyone Uses them– Candidates– Media– Elected officials

The GOP

What is Sampling?

• selecting a representative part of a population

• To determine parameters of the whole population.

The Concept of Sampling• Blood Tests

• Food Tests

The Practicality of Sampling

• Time

• Money

• Size

How Can a Survey of 1000 People Represent 200 Million?

• Responses Cancel each other out

• No New opinions are added

KINDS OF SAMPLES

Convenience Samples

• Super-Fast

• Pick easy targets

• Find the first 100 people

Judgment Samples

• Find People who Match your criteria

• Find the first 1000 college kids

Self Selected Samples

• People Choose to Be in the Sample

• Certain people have much more incentive to participate

• Call-in, internet, text

TELEPHONE SURVEYSThe Best Way to do it

Why Phones?

• Fast

• Cheap

• Representative

Why Not Phones

• Low Response Rate

• Not everyone has a phone

PROBLEMS OF SAMPLING

No Sample is Perfect

• All samples have error

• Large Samples= Less Error

All Voters< Registered Voters< Likely Voters

Poorly Designed Samples

• 10 million ballots distributed

• 2.2 Million Responses

• Alf Landon Will defeat FDR (by a landslide)

Stopping too Soon• It was a close election

• They stopped polling

• They picked the wrong people

Question Bias

• Leading Questions

• Double Barreled Questions

A Bad Question

If you had to make up the SEU Budget, and could only keep one of the following activities which of the items would you keep?a. Faculty Lunch Colloquiumb. Expanded Library Hoursc. Reduced Parking Rates for International Studentsd. Discounted tickets for Topper Club members

Liars

• Socially Acceptable Questions

• Always Remember Homer Simpson's Code of the Schoolyard– Don't tattle – Always make fun of those different from you. – Never say anything, unless you're sure everyone

feels exactly the same way you do.

Always Check

• Who sponsored the poll

• How they got the sample

• How big was the sample

IS GOVERNMENT RESPONSIVE TO PUBLIC OPINION

Do they Listen?

• Government responds to opinion 2/3 of the time

• Sometimes they do not listen to public opinion

Why Not?

• General vs. Intense opinion

• Voting vs general public

• Opinion is only one form of participation

Opinions can change quickly

We Give answers to anything