Violence, Governance, Development

Mo Ibrahim FoundationGovernance for Development in

AfricaCCD Ghana/SOAS

CAUSE or CONSEQUENCE?

What we’ll (try to) cover

• Analytical Links• Trends• Violence and Development I• Violence and Development II

TRENDS, LEVELS, CLASSIFICATION

Peace and Conflict, 2010, CIDCM

Spagat, Restrepo and Vargas

Source: Moser & McIlwaine, World Development, 2006

Post-war violence problem

• The El Salvador issue• South Africa, Ethiopia, Angola…• Loser’s peace (USA); victor’s peace (Spain);

pacified peace (Liberia); divided peace (Afghanistan)

• What are the determinants of variation in post-war violence?

VIOLENCE AND DEVELOPMENT I

Grievance

• Growth (5 years before onset)• Repression (elections, press freedom, etc)• Inequality (Gini coefficient)• Ethnicity (ELF)

Greed

• Goodies (% of primary commodity exports in GDP)

• Rascals (% of 15-24 year old males in population)

• Education (number of years average schooling)

How to overcome constraints on collective action

• Direct, material rewards, now, to individuals• Coercion• Norms & ideology• Joint production (Kriger; Kalyvas) of violence by local

and national, outside and inside communities – intimacy

• Whatever’s easiest (economic or social endowments) but this will shape the form of conflict (Weinstein)

Friendly Fire?

• Regressing endogenous variables on endogenous variables

• Failing to reflect anything in the last 25 years of economic theory or technique

• Conclusions not justified by findings• Might be published in an IR journal but not in

a 3rd rate economics journal.

VIOLENCE AND DEVELOPMENT II

POST-CONFLICT AID

World Bank Post-Conflict Reconstruction Lending, 1980-98

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

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year

US

$ m

illio

n

Africa post-conflict East Asia & Pacific post-conflictSuth Asia post-conflict Europe & Central Asia post-conflictMiddle East & North Africa post-conflict Latin America & Caribbean post-conflict

From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

Aid volatility coefficient

From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper