Violence, Governance, Development

SOAS/Mo Ibrahim FoundationGovernance for Development in

AfricaAddis Ababa, 2012

ANALYTICAL LINKS: GOVERNANCE & VIOLENCE

Links between Governance & Violence

• Allocation of rights to violence• States as war-makers• Managing the violence problem: coalitions

and economic development• The perpetual and pervasive violence problem

Links, continued…

• Violence as lack of governance?

• Violence as reflection of governance?

• Violence as source of improved governance?

Rents, coalitions, violence

• Deterrent organizations, or credible threat• Generating rents so that violence reduces

value of privileges for elites• Or just have powerful organizations of force

that are subservient to law

TRENDS, LEVELS, CLASSIFICATION

Peace and Conflict, 2010, CIDCM

Spagat, Restrepo and Vargas

Source: Moser & McIlwaine, World Development, 2006

VIOLENCE AND DEVELOPMENT I

Grievance

• Growth (5 years before onset)• Repression (elections, press freedom, etc)• Inequality (Gini coefficient)• Ethnicity (ELF)

Greed

• Goodies (% of primary commodity exports in GDP)

• Rascals (% of 15-24 year old males in population)

• Education (number of years average schooling)

How to overcome constraints on collective action

• Direct, material rewards, now, to individuals• Coercion• Norms & ideology• Joint production (Kriger; Kalyvas) of violence by local

and national, outside and inside communities – intimacy

• Whatever’s easiest (economic or social endowments) but this will shape the form of conflict (Weinstein)

Friendly Fire?

• Regressing endogenous variables on endogenous variables

• Failing to reflect anything in the last 25 years of economic theory or technique

• Conclusions not justified by findings• Might be published in an IR journal but not in

a 3rd rate economics journal.

POST-CONFLICT AID

World Bank Post-Conflict Reconstruction Lending, 1980-98

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

year

US

$ m

illio

n

Africa post-conflict East Asia & Pacific post-conflictSuth Asia post-conflict Europe & Central Asia post-conflictMiddle East & North Africa post-conflict Latin America & Caribbean post-conflict

From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

Aid volatility coefficient

From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

Political His in KenyaFrances Stewart, “Kenya disturbances: note for discussion”, 2008

Frances Stewart conclusions

• Socio-economic HIs favour Kikuyu, regionally and within (e.g. within Rift Valley vis-à-vis Kalenjin)

• Political ‘elite bargain’ reflected in inclusive cabinets…till 2005.

• Political power offers elite benefits; socio-economic HIs facilitate mobilisation.