valuation of ibn sina(16-062)

7/27/2019 Valuation of IBN Sina(16-062)

1/27

Particulars 2008 2009 2010

Sales local 1,048,849,721.00 1,268,838,599.00 1,593,976,869.00

Sales export 3,459,000.00 9,030,247.00 11,197,217.00

Total sales 1,052,308,721.00 1,277,868,846.00 1,605,174,086.00

Less: COGS 652,854,439.00 785,469,076.00 985,455,871.00

Gross profit 399,454,282.00 492,399,770.00 619,718,215.00

Less: Operating expense 346,729,133.00 436,859,745.00 541,294,206.00Operating profit 52,725,149.00 55,540,025.00 78,424,009.00

Plus: Other income 8,907,577.00 13,736,889.00 16,315,157.00

Less: Interest expense 4,750,860.00 5,098,143.00 8,810,133.00

Less: Contribution to WPPF 2,708,660.00 3,056,132.00 4,091,859.00

EBT 54,173,206.00 61,122,639.00 81,837,174.00

Less: Tax 10,887,997.00 11,888,975.00 21,766,279.00

Net income 43,285,209.00 49,233,664.00 60,070,895.00

Less: Dividend 20,700,000.00 22,500,000.00 24,750,000.00

Transfer to the reserve 22,585,209.00 26,733,664.00 35,320,895.00

Depreciation 18,329,727.00 21,351,296.00 29,142,027.00

EBIT 58,924,066.00 66,220,782.00 90,647,307.00

Year 2008 2009 2010

O.Profit Margin 0.056 0.052 0.056

Total Asset turnover 2.049 2.115 2.566

Interest Burden 0.919 0.923 0.903

After tax Retention Rate 0.799 0.805 0.734

Financial Leverage 2.722 2.804 2.328

ROE 0.2294 0.2286 0.2235

Year O.Profit Margin Total Asset

turnover

2008 0.056 2.049

2009 0.052 2.049

2010 0.056 2.049

2011 0.046 2.049

2012 0.046 2.049

Year O.Profit Margin Total Asset

turnover2008 0.056 2.049

2009 0.056 2.115

2010 0.056 2.566

2011 0.056 2.530

2012 0.056 1.916


2/27

2011 2012

1,742,256,868.00 1,989,191,317.00

13,003,947.00 20,229,980.00

1,755,260,815.00 2,009,421,297.00

1,075,620,508.00 1,230,093,156.00

679,640,307.00 779,328,141.00

600,677,497.00 691,743,272.0078,962,810.00 87,584,869.00

6,545,189.00 8,745,677.00

6,890,878.00 4,672,712.00

4,534,458.00 4,364,659.00

74,082,663.00 87,293,175.00

19,166,092.00 20,466,758.00

54,916,571.00 66,826,417.00

32,400,000.00 45,360,000.00

22,516,571.00 21,466,417.00

28,449,258.00 33,878,653.00

80,973,541.00 91,965,887.00

2011 2012

0.046 0.046

2.530 1.916

0.915 0.949

0.741 0.766

2.110 1.586

0.1671 0.1011

Interest Burden After tax Retention

Rate

Financial

LeverageROE % Change

in ROE

0.919 0.799 2.722 0.2294

0.919 0.799 2.722 0.2123 -0.0745

0.919 0.799 2.722 0.2314 0.0897

0.919 0.799 2.722 0.189 -0.1831

0.919 0.799 2.722 0.1875 -0.0079

Interest Burden After tax Retention

Rate

Financial

LeverageROE % Change

in ROE0.919 0.799 2.722 0.2293

0.919 0.799 2.722 0.2367 0.0325

0.919 0.799 2.722 0.2872 0.2129

0.919 0.799 2.722 0.2832 -0.0139

0.919 0.799 2.722 0.2145 -0.2426


3/27

Particular 2008 2009 2010

PPE 257,913,228.00 332,846,136.00 330,214,386.00

Investment 35,610,290.00 44,734,790.00 52,642,690.00

Deferred tax asset 0 1,455,601.00 19,872.00

Total non-current assets 293,523,518.00 379,036,527.00 382,876,948.00

Inventory 60,035,472.00 62,231,701.00 66,404,326.00

Accounts receivable 597,737.00 864,243.00 1,399,999.00Advance, deposits and prepayment 78,397,048.00 85,469,907.00 95,826,901.00

Cash 81,100,322.00 76,491,016.00 79,105,353.00

Total curent asset 220,130,579.00 225,056,867.00 242,736,579.00

Total asset 513,654,097.00 604,093,394.00 625,613,527.00

Share capital 90,000,000.00 90,000,000.00 108,000,000.00

Tax holiday reserve 4,392,110.00 4,392,110.00 4,392,110.00

Gain on marketable securities(unrealized)

Retained earnings 94,284,460.00 121,018,124.00 156,339,019.00

Total equity 188,676,570.00 215,410,234.00 268,731,129.00

Long-term loan 27,826,722.00 39,937,517.00 48,733,411.00

Deferred liability 31,542,490.00 40,307,990.00 51,544,925.00Deferred tax liability 954,912.00 - -

Total non-current liability 60,324,124.00 80,245,507.00 100,278,336.00

Short-term loan 169,591,739.00 186,608,862.00 55,390,859.00

Current portion of LTD 6,892,620.00 19,776,124.00 16,942,137.00

Accounts payable 14,232,048.00 19,209,329.00 51,462,325.00

Accrued expenses 16,976,210.00 22,937,534.00 54,302,216.00

Other liabilities 26,223,324.00 25,811,246.00 36,941,204.00

Income tax liability 22,696,081.00 25,616,177.00 30,074,904.00

Deposits 8,041,381.00 8,478,381.00 11,490,417.00

Total current liability 264,653,403.00 308,437,653.00 256,604,062.00

Total liabilities 324,977,527.00 388,683,160.00 356,882,398.00

Total equity & liabilities 513,654,097.00 604,093,394.00 625,613,527.00

Number of outstanding shares 900000 900000 1080000


4/27

2011 2012

329,163,404.00 372,063,184.00

69,249,190.00 347,245,066.00

515,498.00 4,765,377.00

398,928,092.00 724,073,627.00

83,398,069.00 105,024,268.00

1,613,644.00 2,065,406.00108,897,414.00 110,234,856.00

100,893,291.00 107,178,866.00

294,802,418.00 324,503,396.00

693,730,510.00 1,048,577,023.00

129,600,000.00 162,000,000.00

4,392,110.00 4,392,110.00

329,744,761.00

194,751,076.00 165,179,622.00

328,743,186.00 661,316,493.00

14,613,771.00 27,550,613.00

64,555,130.00 78,469,945.00- -

79,168,901.00 106,020,558.00

41,174,320.00 22,083,628.00

21,598,086.00 23,458,900.00

56,005,021.00 54,908,751.00

60,693,123.00 67,313,140.00

38,644,820.00 39,463,320.00

50,447,636.00 56,387,361.00

17,255,417.00 17,624,872.00

285,818,423.00 281,239,972.00

364,987,324.00 387,260,530.00

693,730,510.00 1,048,577,023.00

12960000 16200000


5/27

Particulars 2008 2009

Sales growth rate(local) 0.21

Average sales growth rate(local)

Sales growth rate(export) 1.61

Average sales growth rate(export)

COGS in proportion to sales 0.62 0.61Average proportion

Operating expense in proportion to sales 0.33 0.34

Average proportion

Growth rate of other income 0.54

Average proportion

Growth rate of investment 0.26

Normalized average

Long-term loan in proportion to PPE 0.11 0.12

Average rate of Long Term Loan in Proportion to PPE

Total loan 204,311,081.00 246,322,503.00

Average loan 225,316,792.00

Interest rate 0.02

Average interest rate

Normalized interest rate

current portion of longterm loan in proportion to lonterm loan 0.25 0.50

Short-term loan in proportion to sales 0.16 0.15

Average proportion

Growth rate of PPE 0.29

Average growth rate

Cash outflow from purchase of assets

Proportion of contribution to WPPF to sales 0.00 0.00

Average

Tax rate 0.20 0.19

Average tax rate

Dividend payout ratio 0.48 0.46

Average dividend payout ratio

Depreciation rate 0.07 0.06

Average

Growth rate of deferred tax asset 0.12

Normalized growth rate


6/27

Inventory in proportion to sales 0.06 0.05

Average proportion

Accounts receivable in proportion to sales 0.00 0.00

Average proportion

Advance & prepayment in proportion to sales 0.07 0.07

Average proportion

Growth rate of deferred liability 0.28

Average growth rate

Accounts payable in proportion to sales 0.01 0.02

Average proportion

Accrued expenses in proportion to sales 0.02 0.02

Average proportion

Other liabilities in proportion to sales 0.02 0.02

Average proportion

income tax liability in proportion to EBT 0.42 0.42

Average proportion

Growth rate of deposits 0.05

Average growth rate

Growth of share capital -

Average rate

Retained earnings calculation

Beginning balance

Add:Surplus during the year

Less:Dividend paid

Ending balance


7/27


8/27

0.04 0.05 0.05

0.05 0.05 0.05

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.06 0.06 0.05

0.06 0.06 0.06

0.28 0.25 0.22

0.26 0.26 0.26

0.03 0.03 0.03

0.02 0.02 0.02

0.03 0.03 0.03

0.03 0.03 0.03

0.02 0.02 0.02

0.02 0.02 0.02

0.37 0.68 0.65

0.51 0.51 0.51

0.36 0.50 0.02

0.12 0.12 0.12

0.20 0.20 0.25

0.16 0.16 0.16

165,179,622.00 204,092,360.55

81,612,297.26 93,531,653.83

42,699,558.72 48,935,766.77

204,092,360.55 248,688,247.61


9/27

2015 2016 2017

0.18 0.18 0.18

0.64 0.64 0.64

0.61 0.61 0.61

0.34 0.34 0.34

0.12 0.12 0.12

0.15 0.15 0.15

0.10 0.10 0.10

270,769,692.76 319,810,283.37 379,302,759.75

250,366,822.38 295,289,988.06 349,556,521.56

0.05 0.05 0.05

0.10 0.10 0.10

0.56 0.56 0.56

0.08 0.08 0.08

0.10 0.10 0.10

(46,325,032.51) (51,070,748.89) (56,302,634.91)

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.23 0.23 0.23

0.52 0.52 0.52

0.08 0.08 0.08

0.05


10/27

0.05 0.05 0.05

0.00 0.00 0.00

0.06 0.06 0.06

0.26 0.26 0.26

0.02 0.02 0.02

0.03 0.03 0.03

0.02 0.02 0.02

0.51 0.51 0.51

0.12 0.12 0.12

0.16 0.16 0.16

248,688,247.61 301,372,974.89 369,581,768.18

110,496,505.39 143,055,372.64 169,814,649.61

57,811,778.10 74,846,579.36 88,847,034.64

301,372,974.89 369,581,768.18 450,549,383.15


11/27

1. Perpetual growth rate is 2%.

2. Capital expenditures will be financed by long-term loan and equity share.

3. Since longterm loan has increased every year , so there was purchase of ppe every year.

4. Risk-free rate is 8.37%.

5. Interest rate has been normalized at 10%.

6. To normalize the affairs it was assumed that IBN Sina's investment will increase by 15% rate each year.

s


12/27


13/27

Time Monthly closing - IBN Sina DGEN IBN Sina return DGEN return

30/12/ 2012 84.10 4,219.31 0.01 0.00

29/11/ 2012 83.30 4,210.58 0.68 (0.06)

31/10/ 2012 49.50 4,493.92 (0.49) (0.01)

30/09/ 2012 96.60 4,544.41 0.16 0.02

30/08/ 2012 83.30 4,446.87 0.04 0.0730/07/ 2012 79.90 4,159.17 (0.11) (0.09)

28/06/ 2012 89.60 4,572.88 (0.02) (0.03)

31/05/ 2012 91.50 4,734.33 (0.32) -

30/04/ 2012 134.50 4,734.33 0.03 (0.05)

29/03/ 2012 130.60 4,990.32 0.02 0.06

29/02/ 2012 128.40 4,695.41 0.14 0.13

31/01/ 2012 112.70 4,153.96 (0.17) (0.21)

29/12/ 2011 135.30 5,257.61 (0.89) (0.00)

30/11/ 2011 1,185.00 5,268.55 0.00 0.05

31/10/ 2011 1,184.25 5,036.50 (0.09) (0.15)

29/09/ 2011 1,302.00 5,910.20 (0.02) (0.05)

25/08/ 2011 1,328.75 6,212.00 (0.00) (0.04)

31/07/ 2011 1,334.50 6,459.62 0.00 0.06

30/06/ 2011 1,330.00 6,117.23 (0.01) 0.06

31/05/ 2011 1,336.75 5,758.26 (0.23) (0.05)

28/04/ 2011 1,738.25 6,050.85 0.05 (0.05)

31/03/ 2011 1,652.75 6,352.10 0.48 0.22

28/02/ 2011 1,119.00 5,203.08 (0.29) (0.30)

31/01/ 2011 1,570.75 7,484.23 (0.03) (0.10)

30/12/2010 1,615.75 8,290.41 (0.08) (0.04)

30/11/2010 1,748.50 8,602.44 0.11 0.0831/10/2010 1,576.00 7,957.12 0.11 0.12

30/09/2010 1,423.75 7,097.38 0.00 0.07

31/08/2010 1,421.00 6,657.97 0.03 0.05

29/07/2010 1,381.50 6,342.76 (0.06) 0.03

30/06/2010 1,464.50 6,153.68 (0.04) 0.01

31/05/ 2010 1,520.75 6,107.81 0.01 0.08

29/04/ 2010 1,508.50 5,654.88 0.01 0.01

31/03/ 2010 1,494.50 5,582.33 (0.06) 0.00

28/02/ 2010 1,591.75 5,560.56 (0.06) 0.04

30/01/ 2010 1,688.50 5,367.11 0.09 0.18

30/12/ 2009 1,552.50 4,535.53 (0.02) 0.04

26/11/ 2009 1,581.25 4,380.95 (0.01) 0.30

29/10/ 2009 1,592.00 3,364.26 0.08 0.09

30/09/ 2009 1,473.25 3,083.89 0.12 0.05

31/08/ 2009 1,321.00 2,941.28 0.03 0.01

30/07/ 2009 1,277.75 2,914.53 0.08 (0.03)

30/06/ 2009 1,181.75 3,010.26 0.07 0.17


14/27

31/05/ 2009 1,103.75 2,572.18 0.02 0.01

30/04/ 2009 1,082.40 2,554.36 (0.11) 0.04

31/03/ 2009 1,217.75 2,446.92 0.00 (0.05)

26/02/ 2009 1,216.00 2,570.96 0.14 (0.03)

29/01/ 2009 1,062.75 2,649.49 0.07 (0.05)

30/12/2008 995.75 2,795.34 0.01 0.1330/11/2008 990.25 2,468.92 (0.05) (0.10)

30/10/2008 1,043.00 2,748.60 (0.01) (0.07)

25/09/2008 1,058.50 2,966.82 0.08 0.06

31/08/2008 979.75 2,791.20 (0.07) 0.01

30/07/2008 1,048.50 2,761.05 (0.05) (0.08)

30/06/2008 1,106.00 3,000.49 (0.13) (0.05)

29/05/2008 1,269.75 3,167.99 0.16 0.03

30/04/2008 1,091.50 3,072.85 (0.11) 0.02

31/03/2008 1,233.25 3,016.49 0.35 0.03

28/02/2008 910.50 2,931.38 0.25 0.01

31/01/2008 728.50 2,907.17

Covariance 0.005714538

Variance of market return 0.009166741

Beta 0.623399085

Market return 0.01

Market return -yearly 0.13


15/27

Particulars 2012 2013 2014

Sales (local) 1989191317 2,337,672,481.57 2,747,203,139.47

Sales (export) 20229980 33,215,885.96 54,537,625.83

Total sales 2009421297 2,370,888,367.52 2,801,740,765.30

Less: COGS 1230093156 1,457,602,601.39 1,722,487,099.72

Gross profit 779328141 913,285,766.13 1,079,253,665.58

Less: Operating expense 691743272 803,751,786.03 949,814,497.78

Operating profit 87584869 109,533,980.10 129,439,167.80

Plus: Other income 8745677 9,767,213.03 10,908,069.24

Less: Interest expense 4672712 13,443,050.01 21,286,590.56

Less: Contribution to WPPF 4364659 5,818,264.48 6,875,595.24

EBT 87293175 100,039,878.64 112,185,051.24

Less: Tax 20466758 23,101,966.86 25,906,622.15

Net income 66826417 76,937,911.77 86,278,429.09

Less: Dividend 45360000 40,253,919.95 45,140,879.16

Transfer to the reserve 21466417 36,683,991.82 41,137,549.93

Depreciation 33878653


16/27

2015 2016 2017

3,228,478,389.95 3,794,066,978.38 4,458,739,535.40

89,546,087.53 147,026,968.45 241,405,627.51

3,318,024,477.48 3,941,093,946.83 4,700,145,162.90

2,039,894,065.07 2,422,952,032.63 2,889,610,455.82

1,278,130,412.41 1,518,141,914.20 1,810,534,707.09

1,124,839,168.47 1,336,065,139.99 1,593,390,106.85

153,291,243.94 182,076,774.21 217,144,600.23

12,182,182.81 13,605,118.80 15,194,260.39

25,036,682.24 29,528,998.81 34,955,652.16

8,142,578.21 9,671,618.13 11,534,363.25

132,294,166.30 156,481,276.07 185,848,845.21

30,550,371.39 36,135,842.06 42,917,623.67

101,743,794.91 120,345,434.01 142,931,221.54

53,232,359.47 62,964,738.13 74,781,623.50

48,511,435.44 57,380,695.87 68,149,598.04


17/27


18/27

2015 2016 2017

498,524,123.95 549,594,872.84 605,897,507.75

528,116,339.75 607,333,790.72 698,433,859.32

1,275,748.06 1,275,748.06 1,275,748.06

1,027,916,211.76 1,158,204,411.61 1,305,607,115.13

163,843,288.79 194,610,316.49 232,092,091.70

2,696,690.51 3,203,083.85 3,819,994.98

211,015,158.76 250,640,274.21 298,913,369.83

244,479,043.57 305,176,042.87 34,415,480.11

622,034,181.63 753,629,717.42 569,240,936.62

1,649,950,393.39 1,911,834,129.03 1,874,848,051.75

254,503,582.03 295,860,414.11 343,937,731.40

4,392,110.00 4,392,110.00 4,392,110.00

335,523,467.00 342,378,123.00

301,372,974.89 369,581,768.18 450,549,383.15

895,792,133.92 1,012,212,415.29 798,879,224.55

13,586,722.28 14,978,598.92 16,513,064.81

155,537,347.08 195,379,262.89 245,426,947.82

169,124,069.36 210,357,861.80 261,940,012.63

249,613,851.64 296,487,155.66 353,590,320.187,569,118.84 8,344,528.79 9,199,374.75

77,386,492.63 90,943,627.55 106,875,801.07

87,807,041.63 103,189,724.97 121,267,259.90

70,889,645.33 83,308,614.77 97,903,230.60

67,006,030.99 79,256,625.80 94,131,085.52

24,762,009.05 27,733,574.41 31,061,742.53

585,034,190.11 689,263,851.94 814,028,814.57

754,158,259.47 899,621,713.75 1,075,968,827.20

1,649,950,393.39 1,911,834,129.03 1,874,848,051.75


19/27

Risk-free rate 0.08

Market return 0.13

Beta 0.62

Cost of equity 0.11

Cost of debt 0.10

After tax cost of debt 0.08

Total market value of equity 1,362,420,000.00

Book value of debt 73,093,141.00

Weight of equity 0.95

Weight of debt 0.05

WACC 0.11


20/27


21/27

2016 2017

194,610,316.49 232,092,091.70

3,203,083.85 3,819,994.98

250,640,274.21 298,913,369.83

448,453 ,674 .55 534,825 ,456 .51

90,943,627.55 106,875,801.07

103,189,724.97 121,267,259.90

83,308,614.77 97,903,230.60

277,441 ,967 .28 326,046 ,291 .58

171,011,707.27 208,779,164.93

29,539,748.81 37,767,457.66


22/27


23/27

2017 2018

220,804,497.37

169,814,649.61

52,630,014.74

(56,302,634.91)

37,767,457.66

98,982,949.06 100,962,608.04

0.59

58,399,227.60

652,445,885.48


24/27

Particulars

No. of outstanding shares 16,200,000.00

Sales per share 12.40

Operating cash flow 92,265,012.00

Operating cash flow per share 5.70

EPS 4.13

par value/ Face value 10.00NAV per share 40.82

Price per (30/12/2012) 84.10


25/27

Different Market ratio IBN Sina Reneta GSK Square

Price earning multiple 20.36 16.87 28.15 21.69

Price to par value 8.41 73.95 57.00 23.73

Price to sales 6.78 2.72 1.24 3.38

Price to cashflow 14.77 37.81 13.01 17.24

Price to NAV 2.06 4.12 4.62 3.86

Price with respect price earning multi 119.51

Price with respect to par value 371.52

39.02

Price with respect to cashflow 138.35

Price with respect to NAV 190.47

Pharmaceuticals

Price with respest to sales


26/27

Ambee

57.61 28.94

22.67 37.15

1.61 3.15

38.63 24.29

8.67 4.67

Average relative valuation 171.77

Industry average


27/27

j

After tax

Retention Rate

Financial

Leverage

O.Profit

MarginROE =

Total Asset

Turnover

Interest

Burden

valuation of ibn sina(16-062)

Documents