Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D. – University Of Utah

December 3, 2009

Utah’s Demographic TransformationA View into the Future

Based on a paper with the same title, available on-line: www.bebr.utah.edu

Utah: Trend Toward Nation

0

1.3

2.5

3.8

5.0

Utah U.S.

2.12.5

3.64.3

Total Fertility Rates

1960 2006

Utah: Trend Toward Nation

0

1.5

3

4.5

6

Utah U.S.

2.623.15

5.275.17

Household Size

1900 2008

Utah: Trend Toward Nation

20.0

24.3

28.5

32.8

37.0

Utah U.S.

36.8

28.7

35.3

27.1

Median Age

2000 2008

Utah: Trend Toward Nation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Utah U.S.

34.4%

18.3%

11.4%

1.9%

Minority Share

1960 2008

-0.6%

0%

0.6%

1.2%

1.8%

2.4%

3%

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ual P

erce

ntag

e C

hang

e

U.S. Population Growth: 1900-2005

Growth Rate

High Immigration, High Fertility

Flu Epidemic and WWI

Immigration Restrictions

Great Depression

Baby Boom

Moderate Immigration, Low Fertility

0

30

60

90

120

150

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Mill

ions

of P

erso

ns

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.

U.S. Population by Region: 1900-2030

South Midwest Northeast West

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Ann

ual R

ates

Natural IncreaseNet MigrationPopulation Change

Utah: Net Migration, Natural Increase, and Population Change

Source: BEBR, University of Utah Analysis of UPEC data.

0

18

35

53

70

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

1.3

2.5

3.8

5.0

Uta

h Bi

rths

(tho

usan

ds)

US

Birt

hs (M

illio

ns)

U.S. Boom Peak: 1957

Utah Boom Peak: 1962

Utah Echo Peak: 1980-2

Utah Echo Echo Peak: 2010??

U.S. Echo Peak: 1990

2008 US Births Exceed 1957

Utah and U.S. Annual Births

Utah US

300,000

450,000

600,000

750,000

900,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

High Economic Growth and Fertility2002 BaselineLow Economic Growth and Fertility2005 GOPB Baseline

10

Utah School Age Population: Historical & Projected

Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008.

Utah Population 18-24 Years Old: Historical & Projected

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

18-24: High Economic Growth, High Fertility18-24: Baseline 18-24: Low Economic Growth, Low Fertility Cumulative Births 18-24 years priorBureau of Census 2005GOPB 2005

Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee. Births updated 2/2008.

Age wave hits college ages 2016 - 2025

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20080

10

20

30

40

Fore

ign

Born

Sha

re o

f Tot

al P

opul

atio

n

Num

ber o

f For

eign

Bor

n (M

illio

ns)

U.S. Foreign Born Population: 1900–2008

Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.

14.7%

12.6%

38.1

Share Millions

Utah Foreign Born Population: 1900–2008

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20080

50

100

150

200

25019.4%

17.6%

13.1%

9.5%

6%

4.3%3.6%

2.8%3.5% 3.4%

7.1%8.3%

Fore

ign

Born

Sha

re o

f Tot

al P

opul

atio

n

Num

ber o

f For

eign

Bor

n (T

hous

ands

)

Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey), Pew Hispanic Center, BEBR Calculations.

Share Number

226,440

Top Occupations of Utah’s Foreign Born

Assemblers & Fabricators Laborers / Material Movers,

Cooks Retail Salespersons

Maids/Housekeeping Customer Service Rep.

Construction Laborers Waiters and Waitresses

Janitors Truck Drivers

Production Workers Carpenters

Cashiers Post-secondary Teachers

Grounds Maintenance Workers Misc. Agricultural Workers

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.

Top Occupations Concentration Ratios of Utah’s Foreign Born

Medical Scientists Maids and Housekeepers

Packaging Machine Operators Fence Erectors

Plasterers & Stucco Masons Sewing Machine Operators

Chefs and Head Cooks Misc. Assemblers

Misc. Media Workers Woodworking Mach. Ops.

Grinding, etc. Machine Ops. Astronomers & Physicists

Dishwashers Drywall Installers

Baggage Porters Dancers & Choreographers

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census 2000, 5% PUMS.

College Graduate or Greater

High School or Greater

Less than High School

0% 23% 45% 68% 90%

46%

55%

18%

25%

75%

28%

38%

62%

22%

10%

90%

31%

13%

87%

30%

TotalNative BornForeign BornNaturalizedNot a Citizen

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS

Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Males 25 Years and Older (2000)

College Graduate or Greater

High School or Greater

Less than High School

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

40%

60%

21%

22%

78%

21%

33%

67%

21%

10%

90%

22%

12%

88%

22%

TotalNative BornForeign BornNaturalizedNot a Citizen

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS

Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Females 25 Years and Older (2000)

Utah’s Foreign Born Population: 1900 v. 2007

Northern America2.5%

Europe95%

Asia2.5%

Latin America63%

Africa2%

Northern America5%

Oceania3%

Europe11%

Asia18%

1900 2007

Minority Share of the Population: U.S., State of Utah, Salt Lake County

0%

12%

24%

36%

48%

60%

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 2030 20502% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2%

6% 8% 9%

15%18.3%19%

22%25% 27%

30%

1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1%5%

8% 10%

19%

24%27%

32% 34%37%

41%

12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%

17%20%

24%

31%34% 35%

40%45%

49%54%

USSalt LakeState of Utah

Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002), BEBR

Minority Share by Age Group: Utah and Salt Lake County – 2008

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

< 5 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84

25.4%24.5%

22.3%

19.6%

16.1%

18.3%

22.3% 21.8%

19.5%

15.3%

12.8%11.1%

9.8% 9.1% 8.4%7.5% 7% 6.7%

34.7%33.5%

29.9%

26.6%

22.6%

26%

30.1%

27.9%

24.7%

19.5%

16.2%

13.9% 13.2% 12.7% 12.5%11.2%

10.3%9.5%

Salt Lake CountyUtah2008 Average State Share

Sources: Bureau of the Census, 2008 Population Estimates.

18.3%

U.S. Minority Share by Age Group: 2010-2050

0%

17.5%

35%

52.5%

70%

Under 18 18 through 64 65 years and Older

42%

55%

62%

35%

50%

58%

29%

46%

54%

24%

40%

49%

20%

35%

45%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: Bureau of the Census.

Minority Contribution to Utah Population and School Enrollment Growth: 2000 to 2007

Minority33%

White Non-Hispanic67% Minority

65%

White Non-Hispanic35%

Population Growth Enrollment Growth

Educational Transition Points

100 Latina/o Elementary Students

40 High School Graduates

4 College Graduates

1 Graduate School Completion

<1 Doctorate

100 White Elementary Students

84 High School Graduates

26 College Graduates

10 Graduate School Completion

1 Doctorate

Source: Octavio Villalpando, University of Utah

0

240,000

480,000

720,000

960,000

1,200,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Less than 5 years old5 through 17 years old60 years and older65 years and older85+

Selected Age Group Projections for State of Utah

1,133,594

998,411

899,392

422,550

177,255

60+ > 5-17

0

24,000,000

48,000,000

72,000,000

96,000,000

120,000,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2046

Less than 5 years old 5 through 17 years old60 years and older 65 years and older85+

Selected Age Group Projections for State of U.S.

53,159,113

35,107,491

19,197,434

2009: 60+ > 5-17