update: navigating market volatility - amazon s3

23
Update: Navigating Market Volatility This presentation prov ides a rev iew of issues or topics of possible interest to Glenmede’s clients and friends, and does not prov ide personalized inv estment adv ice. It contains Glenmede’s opinions, which may change after the date of publication. Information gathered from third-party sources is assumed reliable but is not guaranteed. This presentation contains projections which, though arrived at in good faith, are not guaranteed. This document is not a recommendation of any particular inv estment. Actual results may differ materially from projections. Actual inv estment decisions for clients are made on an indiv idualized basis and may be different from what is expressed here. All inv estments hav e risk and are subject to loss. Clients are encouraged to discuss anything they see here of interest with their Glenmede representativ e. Peter Zuleba, CFA Director of Investment Management | [email protected] A member of the firm’s Management Committee and Director of Investment Management, Peter oversees the research, trading and portfolio management of equity, fixed income, alternative and risk-management strategies. Laura LaRosa Executive Director of Client Development | [email protected] Laura is responsible for broadening relationships with individuals, families, endowments and foundations. With her 30+ year career, Ms. LaRosa is a frequent speaker on portfolio management, fixed income, impact investing and investment strategy. Michael Reynolds, CFA Investment Strategy Officer | [email protected] Michael is a senior research analyst responsible for the development of investment strategies and policies methodologies applied to Private Wealth client portfolios.

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Page 1: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

Update: Navigating Market Volatility

This presentation prov ides a rev iew of issues or topics of possible interest to Glenmede’s clients and friends, and does not prov ide personalizedinv estment adv ice. It contains Glenmede’s opinions, which may change after the date of publication. Information gathered from third-party sources isassumed reliable but is not guaranteed. This presentation contains projections which, though arriv ed at in good faith, are not guaranteed. Thisdocument is not a recommendation of any particular inv estment. Actual results may differ materially from projections. Actual inv estment decisions forclients are made on an indiv idualized basis and may be different from what is expressed here. All inv estments hav e risk and are subject to loss. Clientsare encouraged to discuss anything they see here of interest with their Glenmede representativ e.

Peter Zuleba, CFADirector of Investment Management | [email protected] member of the firm’s Management Committee and Director of Investment Management, Peter oversees the research, trading and portfolio management of equity, fixed income, alternative and risk-management strategies.

Laura LaRosaExecutive Director of Client Development | [email protected] is responsible for broadening relationships with indiv iduals, families, endowments and foundations. With her 30+ year career, Ms. LaRosa is a frequent speaker on portfolio management, fixed income, impact investing and investment strategy.

Michael Reynolds, CFAInvestment Strategy Officer | [email protected] is a senior research analyst responsible for the development of investment strategies and policies methodologies applied to Private Wealth client portfolios.

Page 2: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18 1/19 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/202,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

Data through 03/16/2020Source: Glenmede, FactSet

S&P 500 Price Index

STOCKS ARE EXPERIENCING ANOTHER CORRECTION AFTER A YEAR OF GAINS

2

-28.1%-19.8%

The S&P 500 Price Index is a market capitalization weighted index of large-cap stocks. Data as of 3/16/2020 at 10:00am. One cannot invest direct ly in an index. Past performance may not be indicative of future result s.

Page 3: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

'20*'18'16'14'12'10'08'06'04'02'00'98'96'94'92'90

Number of Extreme Daily Moves in the S&P 5003-5% Moves 5-7% Moves 7%+ Moves

Source: Glenmede, FactSet Data through 3/13/2019*2020 data is year-to-date, whereas all other years' figures are for full year periodsData shown is the number of daily moves in the S&P 500 Price Index in each year of 3% - 5%, 5% - 7% and 7% or more. The S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index of large-cap stocks in the U.S. One cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance may not be indicat ive of future result s.

Only 3 Months into the Year, 2020 is Already One of the

Most Volatile Years in Recent Memory

MARKET VOLATILITY HAS BEEN EXTREME BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS

3

Page 4: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

BONDS PROVIDE PROTECTION IN A RISK-OFF ENVIRONMENT

4

36%

15% 16%

4% 6%

-43%

-53%

-19% -19% -20%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Dot-Com Bubble(May '00 - Oct '02)

Global Financial Crisis(Jan '08 - Mar '09)

European Debt Crisis(Apr '11 - Oct '11)

Xmas Eve Correction(Sep '18 - Dec '18)

Coronavirus(Feb '20 - Now)

10Y Treasury S&P 500

Source: Glenmede Data as of 3/15/202010-Year Treasuries returns are calculated using the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Bellwethers (10 Y) Index. Past performance is not indicat ive of future returns. These are unmanaged total return indices with cash flows reinvested. One cannot invest direct ly in these indices.

Page 5: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

AGENDA

5

1 How bad can this get?An updated assessment of the outbreak and implications for economics and earnings

2 What are the investment implications?Benchmarks to watch and potential opportunities for investors

Page 6: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

AGENDA

6

1 How bad can this get?An updated assessment of the outbreak and implications for economics and earnings

2 What are the investment implications?Benchmarks to watch and potential opportunities for investors

Page 7: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1/22 1/27 2/1 2/6 2/11 2/16 2/21 2/26 3/2 3/7 3/12

Number of Reported Active COVID-19 Coronavirus CasesChina Outside China

Source: Glenmede, Johns Hopkins University, World Health Organization Data through 3/15/2020

CASE COUNT IS NOW DECLINING IN CHINA, BUT RISING IN REST OF WORLD

7

The Number of Reported Active Cases Outside of China Has Well Eclipsed

Those Within China

Page 8: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

OTHER COUNTRIES APPEAR TO BE TRACKING A SIMILAR PATH AS CHINA

8

Other Countries Appear to be Tracking a Similar Path as China

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50Number of Days Since Hitting 100 Reported Active Cases

Number of Reported Active COVID-19 Coronavirus CasesChina - ex Hubei South Korea JapanIran Italy SpainGermany Switzerland US

Source: Glenmede, Johns Hopkins University, World Health Organization Data through 3/15/2020Data shown is the progression of reported active cases on a log-scale once the number of reported active cases has reached at least 100 in each country.

Page 9: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

THE U.S. ECONOMY IS LIKELY FACING RISK HEADING INTO Q2

9

1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0%

0.2%

-3.2%

4.2%

1.9%

0.8%

3.0%

0.2%

-8.2%

-0.2%

3.4%

-1.1%

4.9%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021

U.S. GDP - Multiple ScenariosPrior Baseline Delayed Recovery

Source: Glenmede Est imates as of 3/15/2020Data shown are Glenmede's proprietary est imates for the economic impact on economic growth from the coronavirus and oil shock in the U.S. in excess of inflat ion. Prior refers to est imates of the growth in real gross domest ic product (GDP) before the outbreak of the virus and the oil price shock. Baseline refers to Glenmede's base case est imate of the growth in real GDP account ing for the effects of the coronavirus and oil price shock. Delayed Recovery refers to Glenmede's est imate of the growth in real GDP assuming a longer shutdown of economic act ivity due to the coronavirus. These figures are project ions which, though arrived at in good faith, are not guaranteed.

Page 10: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

0.8%

-15.1%

20.1%

9.3%

4.0%

14.3%

0.8%

-38.7%

-1.0%

16.3%

-5.4%

23.4%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021

S&P 500 Earnings Growth (Year-over-Year)

Source: Glenmede, FactSet Est imates as of 3/15/2020Data shown in blue are actual result s for year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 Index. Data shown in gray are Glenmede's proprietary est imates for earnings growth in 2020 after account ing for the effects of the coronavirus and the oil price shock in Glenmede's est imat ion of the base case scenario. Data shown in red are Glenmede's proprietary estiamtes for earnings growth in 2020 after account ing for the effects of the coronavirus and the oil price shock in a scenario involving a delayed recovery. These figure are project ions which, though arrived at in good faith, are not guaranteed.

EARNINGS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A NOTABLE, TRANSITORY IMPACT

10

Page 11: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS FROM COVID-19

11

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

'18 '19 '20 '21 '22

World GDP Growth Previous Est. Base Case(1) Downside Case(2)

Source: Glenmede, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Est imates as of 3/15/2020Solid lines represent reported global GDP growth and dashed lines represent projected GDP growth in various scenarios. Previous Est . is the IMF’s latest projection prior to the coronavirus outbreak. Base Case and Downside Case are Glenmede's est imates.(1) Base Case represents the scenario where China, S. Korea, Italy, Iran, Japan, Italy and Spain experience a 2.7% reduct ion in 2020 GDP growth and the U.S., Germany and France experience a more modest 1.1% reduct ion in 2020 GDP growth. (2) Downside Case represents the scenario where government effort s to contain the virus precipitate either a steeper decline or a longer shut-down period for all nat ions, leading to a ~3.0% reduct ion to GDP growth for all count ries. Project ions are inherently uncertain and no guarantee can be given to their accuracy.

Page 12: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

THE FED’S ACCOMMODATION IS STACKING UP

March 3rd March 12th March 15th

Fed Cuts 50bps

$1.5 Trillion in Temporary

Liquidity

Cut Rates to Zero

$700 Billion in Quantitative

Easing

Global Currency Swap Facility

Eliminate Reserve

Requirements

The Federal Reserve Has Acted Swiftly and Comprehensively

12

Page 13: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

% of U.S. GDP % of World GDP

FISCAL STIMULUS IS KICKING IN, MORE IN THE PIPELINE

13

Global Fiscal Stimulus ~0.8% of World GDP U.S Fiscal Stimulus

~0.7% of U.S GDP

Proposed Congress Bill(Estimated)

$8.5 Bil

$40 Bil

$100 Bil

Source: Glenmede, Cornerstone Macro, UBS Data through 03/14/2020

Page 14: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

AGENDA

14

1 How bad can this get?An updated assessment of the outbreak and implications for economics and earnings

2 What are the investment implications?Benchmarks to watch and potential opportunities for investors

Page 15: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

STOCK MARKET CORRECTION LEAVES VALUATIONS MORE REASONABLE

15

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

Cash Bonds Stocks

10-Year Expected ReturnsBeginning of Year Now

Source: Glenmede, FactSet Data through 03/15/2020Data shown are Glenmede's est imates of 10-year expected returns. Stocks, Bonds and Cash are represented by the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI), the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index and the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Bellwethers (3 Month), respect ively. MSCI ACWI is a representative index of stocks in all developed and emerging countries. Actual returns may vary materially from expectat ions or est imates. One cannot invest direct ly in an index.

Beginning of Year

Now

Cash Looks Less Attractive, Stocks Looking Increasingly

Enticing

Page 16: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

A NUMBER OF ATTRACTIVE OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN EQUITIES

16

2.0% 1.8% 2.2%3.4%

4.2%4.9%

7.7%

9.0%

1.0%2.0% 1.9%

4.2%

6.0%6.8%

11.3%12.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Cash Muni1-10

CoreFixed

MuniHY

CorpHY

U.S.Large

U.S.Small

Int'l

Projected 10-Year Returns by Asset Class

EquitiesCash / Fixed Income

Source: Glenmede Data through 03/15/2020Data shown are Glenmede's proprietary est imates for 10 year expected returns for a number of asset classes. Proxy indexes for each asset class are as follows: Cash (Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Bellwethers 3M), Muni 1-10 (Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond 1-10 Index), Core Fixed (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index), Muni High Yield (Bloomberg Barclays Municipal High Yield 5% Tobacco Cap 2% Issuer Cap Index), Corp High Yield (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit Corporate High Yield BB Index), U.S. Large (MSCI USA Index), U.S. Small (Russell 2000 Index), Int 'l (MSCI AC World ex-U.S. Index). These figures are project ions which, though arrived at in good faith, are not guaranteed. One cannot invest direct ly in an index.

Light Colors = Beginning of Year Estimates

Dark Colors = Estimates Now

Page 17: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

WHAT OPPORTUNITIES HAVE BEEN CREATED BY THE CORRECTION?

17

Asset Class Viewpoint on Opportunity

U.S. Large-Cap Valuations are now more reasonable, but still above fair value.

U.S. Small-Cap Best U.S. opportunity. Below fair value after correction.

Int’l Developed Below fair value. Japan remains the cheapest market.

Int’l Emerging Best Int’l opportunity. Emerging Asia likely to recover first.

These statements are Glenmede’s opinions, which may change after the date of publication. Actual investment decisions for clients are made on anindividualized basis and may be different from what is expressed here. All investments have risk and are subject to loss.

Page 18: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

THE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) IS FLASHING A BULLISH SIGNAL

18

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '190

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Data through 03/13/2020Source: Glenmede, FactSet

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

The Chicago Board Opt ion Exchange’s Volat ility Index, or VIX for short , is a measure of the market’s expectat ion of volat ility based on derivat ives pricing on the S&P 500 Index. Past performance may not be indicative of future result s. One cannot invest direct ly in an index.

Implied Volatility is at Historically Extreme

Levels

Page 19: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

ALL 4 SENTIMENT INDICATORS ARE AT OR NEAR EXTREME FEAR LEVELS

19

VIX

AAII - % Bullish

Russell 3000 % Above 200MVA

Stock/Bond Ratio

Current value

12mo. Forward S&P 500 Performance at Current

Levels or Worse

75.5

Percentile

29.7%

5.1%

-24.8%

Source: Glenmede, FactSet Data through 03/12/2020The indicators shown include the Chicago Board Opt ions Exchange (CBOE) Volat ility Index, or VIX for short , the percentage of people who responded “bullish” to the American Associat ion of Individual Investors (AAII) sent iment survey, the percentage of stocks in the Russell 3000 index that are t rading above their respect ive 200-day moving averages and the stock/bond rat io, which compares the relat ive total return of the S&P 500 index vs. 10-year Treasuries relative to the 220-day moving average. Data shown includes the current value of each indicator, the percent ile rank of those values based on the indicators’ individual histories and a historical analysis of how the S&P 500 has performed after reaching current levels or worse in the past , including the percentage of t imes the S&P 500 posted a posit ive return and the average return in those scenarios. The S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index of large-cap stocks in the U.S. and the Russell 3000 is a market capitalization weighted index of large-, mid- and small-cap stocks in the U.S. Past performance may not be indicat ive of future result s. One cannot invest directly in an index.

IndicatorPositive

Return Freq. Average

Return

99.9%

78.8%

99.8%

97.4%

100%

84%

100%

99%

36.4%

16.5%

50.8%

31.9%

Page 20: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

MARKETS SEEM TO BE TRADING ON PEAK CASE COUNT SO FAR

20

94

99

104

109

114

119

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

95

97

99

101

103

105

107

109

MSCI China

MSCI Japan

MSCI Korea

0100200300400500600700800900

01020304050607080

Japan

0100200300400500600700800900

China (ex-Hubei)

South Korea

2/4/2020

3/10/2020

3/3/2020

Da

ily C

hang

e in

C

onf

irmed

Ca

se C

ount

Da

ily C

hang

e in

C

onf

irmed

Ca

se C

ount

Da

ily C

hang

e in

C

onf

irmed

Ca

se C

ount

Source: Glenmede, Johns Hopkins University Data through 3/12/2020Data shown in charts on the left are the daily changes in confirmed cases of COVID-19 by region. Charts on the right show each country’s stock market performance relat ive to the global equity market (MSCI ACWI) since the beginning of 2020, indexed to 100 at 12/31/2019. MSCI indexes are market capitalization indexes of large-cap stocks in each respect ive region. One cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance may not be indicative of future result s.

Page 21: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

AN INVESTOR’S TIME HORIZON INFORMS INVESTMENT STRATEGY

21

Average Return

Positive Frequency

6mo

2.0%

56%

1yr

14.0%

78%

3yr

43.9%

89%

5yr

71.1%

100%

10yr.

212.1%

100%

S&P 500 Total Return After Hitting a Bear Market (Down 20% from All-Time Highs)

Source: Glenmede, FactSet Data through 03/14/2020Data shown is the cumulat ive total return for the S&P 500 index after a t ransition from a bull market to a bear market . A bear market is defined as a 20%+ decline from all-t ime highs. Data in the table shows the percentage of t imes the S&P 500 posted a posit ive return and the average return from the day in which the S&P 500 enters a bear market . Data begins after World War II (1946). The S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index of large-cap stocks in the U.S.. Past performance may not be indicative of future result s. One cannot invest direct ly in an index.

Page 22: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

SUMMARY

22

1How bad can this get?• Expect a material economic and earnings impact,

primarily in Q2• Monetary policy has stepped up to the plate, look to

fiscal spend as the more potent stimulus ahead

2What are the investment implications?• Risk assets now sit at more attractive valuations• There have been signs of investor capitulation• Markets appear to be sensitive to turning points in new

cases• Market volatility creates opportunity for long-term

investors

Page 23: Update: Navigating Market Volatility - Amazon S3

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