update: navigating market volatility - amazon s3
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Update: Navigating Market Volatility
This presentation prov ides a rev iew of issues or topics of possible interest to Glenmede’s clients and friends, and does not prov ide personalizedinv estment adv ice. It contains Glenmede’s opinions, which may change after the date of publication. Information gathered from third-party sources isassumed reliable but is not guaranteed. This presentation contains projections which, though arriv ed at in good faith, are not guaranteed. Thisdocument is not a recommendation of any particular inv estment. Actual results may differ materially from projections. Actual inv estment decisions forclients are made on an indiv idualized basis and may be different from what is expressed here. All inv estments hav e risk and are subject to loss. Clientsare encouraged to discuss anything they see here of interest with their Glenmede representativ e.
Peter Zuleba, CFADirector of Investment Management | [email protected] member of the firm’s Management Committee and Director of Investment Management, Peter oversees the research, trading and portfolio management of equity, fixed income, alternative and risk-management strategies.
Laura LaRosaExecutive Director of Client Development | [email protected] is responsible for broadening relationships with indiv iduals, families, endowments and foundations. With her 30+ year career, Ms. LaRosa is a frequent speaker on portfolio management, fixed income, impact investing and investment strategy.
Michael Reynolds, CFAInvestment Strategy Officer | [email protected] is a senior research analyst responsible for the development of investment strategies and policies methodologies applied to Private Wealth client portfolios.
1/18 4/18 7/18 10/18 1/19 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/202,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
3,400
3,600
Data through 03/16/2020Source: Glenmede, FactSet
S&P 500 Price Index
STOCKS ARE EXPERIENCING ANOTHER CORRECTION AFTER A YEAR OF GAINS
2
-28.1%-19.8%
The S&P 500 Price Index is a market capitalization weighted index of large-cap stocks. Data as of 3/16/2020 at 10:00am. One cannot invest direct ly in an index. Past performance may not be indicative of future result s.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
'20*'18'16'14'12'10'08'06'04'02'00'98'96'94'92'90
Number of Extreme Daily Moves in the S&P 5003-5% Moves 5-7% Moves 7%+ Moves
Source: Glenmede, FactSet Data through 3/13/2019*2020 data is year-to-date, whereas all other years' figures are for full year periodsData shown is the number of daily moves in the S&P 500 Price Index in each year of 3% - 5%, 5% - 7% and 7% or more. The S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index of large-cap stocks in the U.S. One cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance may not be indicat ive of future result s.
Only 3 Months into the Year, 2020 is Already One of the
Most Volatile Years in Recent Memory
MARKET VOLATILITY HAS BEEN EXTREME BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS
3
BONDS PROVIDE PROTECTION IN A RISK-OFF ENVIRONMENT
4
36%
15% 16%
4% 6%
-43%
-53%
-19% -19% -20%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Dot-Com Bubble(May '00 - Oct '02)
Global Financial Crisis(Jan '08 - Mar '09)
European Debt Crisis(Apr '11 - Oct '11)
Xmas Eve Correction(Sep '18 - Dec '18)
Coronavirus(Feb '20 - Now)
10Y Treasury S&P 500
Source: Glenmede Data as of 3/15/202010-Year Treasuries returns are calculated using the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Bellwethers (10 Y) Index. Past performance is not indicat ive of future returns. These are unmanaged total return indices with cash flows reinvested. One cannot invest direct ly in these indices.
AGENDA
5
1 How bad can this get?An updated assessment of the outbreak and implications for economics and earnings
2 What are the investment implications?Benchmarks to watch and potential opportunities for investors
AGENDA
6
1 How bad can this get?An updated assessment of the outbreak and implications for economics and earnings
2 What are the investment implications?Benchmarks to watch and potential opportunities for investors
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1/22 1/27 2/1 2/6 2/11 2/16 2/21 2/26 3/2 3/7 3/12
Number of Reported Active COVID-19 Coronavirus CasesChina Outside China
Source: Glenmede, Johns Hopkins University, World Health Organization Data through 3/15/2020
CASE COUNT IS NOW DECLINING IN CHINA, BUT RISING IN REST OF WORLD
7
The Number of Reported Active Cases Outside of China Has Well Eclipsed
Those Within China
OTHER COUNTRIES APPEAR TO BE TRACKING A SIMILAR PATH AS CHINA
8
Other Countries Appear to be Tracking a Similar Path as China
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50Number of Days Since Hitting 100 Reported Active Cases
Number of Reported Active COVID-19 Coronavirus CasesChina - ex Hubei South Korea JapanIran Italy SpainGermany Switzerland US
Source: Glenmede, Johns Hopkins University, World Health Organization Data through 3/15/2020Data shown is the progression of reported active cases on a log-scale once the number of reported active cases has reached at least 100 in each country.
THE U.S. ECONOMY IS LIKELY FACING RISK HEADING INTO Q2
9
1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0%
0.2%
-3.2%
4.2%
1.9%
0.8%
3.0%
0.2%
-8.2%
-0.2%
3.4%
-1.1%
4.9%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021
U.S. GDP - Multiple ScenariosPrior Baseline Delayed Recovery
Source: Glenmede Est imates as of 3/15/2020Data shown are Glenmede's proprietary est imates for the economic impact on economic growth from the coronavirus and oil shock in the U.S. in excess of inflat ion. Prior refers to est imates of the growth in real gross domest ic product (GDP) before the outbreak of the virus and the oil price shock. Baseline refers to Glenmede's base case est imate of the growth in real GDP account ing for the effects of the coronavirus and oil price shock. Delayed Recovery refers to Glenmede's est imate of the growth in real GDP assuming a longer shutdown of economic act ivity due to the coronavirus. These figures are project ions which, though arrived at in good faith, are not guaranteed.
0.8%
-15.1%
20.1%
9.3%
4.0%
14.3%
0.8%
-38.7%
-1.0%
16.3%
-5.4%
23.4%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 2021
S&P 500 Earnings Growth (Year-over-Year)
Source: Glenmede, FactSet Est imates as of 3/15/2020Data shown in blue are actual result s for year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 Index. Data shown in gray are Glenmede's proprietary est imates for earnings growth in 2020 after account ing for the effects of the coronavirus and the oil price shock in Glenmede's est imat ion of the base case scenario. Data shown in red are Glenmede's proprietary estiamtes for earnings growth in 2020 after account ing for the effects of the coronavirus and the oil price shock in a scenario involving a delayed recovery. These figure are project ions which, though arrived at in good faith, are not guaranteed.
EARNINGS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A NOTABLE, TRANSITORY IMPACT
10
GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIOS FROM COVID-19
11
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22
World GDP Growth Previous Est. Base Case(1) Downside Case(2)
Source: Glenmede, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Est imates as of 3/15/2020Solid lines represent reported global GDP growth and dashed lines represent projected GDP growth in various scenarios. Previous Est . is the IMF’s latest projection prior to the coronavirus outbreak. Base Case and Downside Case are Glenmede's est imates.(1) Base Case represents the scenario where China, S. Korea, Italy, Iran, Japan, Italy and Spain experience a 2.7% reduct ion in 2020 GDP growth and the U.S., Germany and France experience a more modest 1.1% reduct ion in 2020 GDP growth. (2) Downside Case represents the scenario where government effort s to contain the virus precipitate either a steeper decline or a longer shut-down period for all nat ions, leading to a ~3.0% reduct ion to GDP growth for all count ries. Project ions are inherently uncertain and no guarantee can be given to their accuracy.
THE FED’S ACCOMMODATION IS STACKING UP
March 3rd March 12th March 15th
Fed Cuts 50bps
$1.5 Trillion in Temporary
Liquidity
Cut Rates to Zero
$700 Billion in Quantitative
Easing
Global Currency Swap Facility
Eliminate Reserve
Requirements
The Federal Reserve Has Acted Swiftly and Comprehensively
12
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
% of U.S. GDP % of World GDP
FISCAL STIMULUS IS KICKING IN, MORE IN THE PIPELINE
13
Global Fiscal Stimulus ~0.8% of World GDP U.S Fiscal Stimulus
~0.7% of U.S GDP
Proposed Congress Bill(Estimated)
$8.5 Bil
$40 Bil
$100 Bil
Source: Glenmede, Cornerstone Macro, UBS Data through 03/14/2020
AGENDA
14
1 How bad can this get?An updated assessment of the outbreak and implications for economics and earnings
2 What are the investment implications?Benchmarks to watch and potential opportunities for investors
STOCK MARKET CORRECTION LEAVES VALUATIONS MORE REASONABLE
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0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Cash Bonds Stocks
10-Year Expected ReturnsBeginning of Year Now
Source: Glenmede, FactSet Data through 03/15/2020Data shown are Glenmede's est imates of 10-year expected returns. Stocks, Bonds and Cash are represented by the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI), the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index and the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Bellwethers (3 Month), respect ively. MSCI ACWI is a representative index of stocks in all developed and emerging countries. Actual returns may vary materially from expectat ions or est imates. One cannot invest direct ly in an index.
Beginning of Year
Now
Cash Looks Less Attractive, Stocks Looking Increasingly
Enticing
A NUMBER OF ATTRACTIVE OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN EQUITIES
16
2.0% 1.8% 2.2%3.4%
4.2%4.9%
7.7%
9.0%
1.0%2.0% 1.9%
4.2%
6.0%6.8%
11.3%12.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Cash Muni1-10
CoreFixed
MuniHY
CorpHY
U.S.Large
U.S.Small
Int'l
Projected 10-Year Returns by Asset Class
EquitiesCash / Fixed Income
Source: Glenmede Data through 03/15/2020Data shown are Glenmede's proprietary est imates for 10 year expected returns for a number of asset classes. Proxy indexes for each asset class are as follows: Cash (Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Bellwethers 3M), Muni 1-10 (Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond 1-10 Index), Core Fixed (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index), Muni High Yield (Bloomberg Barclays Municipal High Yield 5% Tobacco Cap 2% Issuer Cap Index), Corp High Yield (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Credit Corporate High Yield BB Index), U.S. Large (MSCI USA Index), U.S. Small (Russell 2000 Index), Int 'l (MSCI AC World ex-U.S. Index). These figures are project ions which, though arrived at in good faith, are not guaranteed. One cannot invest direct ly in an index.
Light Colors = Beginning of Year Estimates
Dark Colors = Estimates Now
WHAT OPPORTUNITIES HAVE BEEN CREATED BY THE CORRECTION?
17
Asset Class Viewpoint on Opportunity
U.S. Large-Cap Valuations are now more reasonable, but still above fair value.
U.S. Small-Cap Best U.S. opportunity. Below fair value after correction.
Int’l Developed Below fair value. Japan remains the cheapest market.
Int’l Emerging Best Int’l opportunity. Emerging Asia likely to recover first.
These statements are Glenmede’s opinions, which may change after the date of publication. Actual investment decisions for clients are made on anindividualized basis and may be different from what is expressed here. All investments have risk and are subject to loss.
THE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) IS FLASHING A BULLISH SIGNAL
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'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '190
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Data through 03/13/2020Source: Glenmede, FactSet
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
The Chicago Board Opt ion Exchange’s Volat ility Index, or VIX for short , is a measure of the market’s expectat ion of volat ility based on derivat ives pricing on the S&P 500 Index. Past performance may not be indicative of future result s. One cannot invest direct ly in an index.
Implied Volatility is at Historically Extreme
Levels
ALL 4 SENTIMENT INDICATORS ARE AT OR NEAR EXTREME FEAR LEVELS
19
VIX
AAII - % Bullish
Russell 3000 % Above 200MVA
Stock/Bond Ratio
Current value
12mo. Forward S&P 500 Performance at Current
Levels or Worse
75.5
Percentile
29.7%
5.1%
-24.8%
Source: Glenmede, FactSet Data through 03/12/2020The indicators shown include the Chicago Board Opt ions Exchange (CBOE) Volat ility Index, or VIX for short , the percentage of people who responded “bullish” to the American Associat ion of Individual Investors (AAII) sent iment survey, the percentage of stocks in the Russell 3000 index that are t rading above their respect ive 200-day moving averages and the stock/bond rat io, which compares the relat ive total return of the S&P 500 index vs. 10-year Treasuries relative to the 220-day moving average. Data shown includes the current value of each indicator, the percent ile rank of those values based on the indicators’ individual histories and a historical analysis of how the S&P 500 has performed after reaching current levels or worse in the past , including the percentage of t imes the S&P 500 posted a posit ive return and the average return in those scenarios. The S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index of large-cap stocks in the U.S. and the Russell 3000 is a market capitalization weighted index of large-, mid- and small-cap stocks in the U.S. Past performance may not be indicat ive of future result s. One cannot invest directly in an index.
IndicatorPositive
Return Freq. Average
Return
99.9%
78.8%
99.8%
97.4%
100%
84%
100%
99%
36.4%
16.5%
50.8%
31.9%
MARKETS SEEM TO BE TRADING ON PEAK CASE COUNT SO FAR
20
94
99
104
109
114
119
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
109
MSCI China
MSCI Japan
MSCI Korea
0100200300400500600700800900
01020304050607080
Japan
0100200300400500600700800900
China (ex-Hubei)
South Korea
2/4/2020
3/10/2020
3/3/2020
Da
ily C
hang
e in
C
onf
irmed
Ca
se C
ount
Da
ily C
hang
e in
C
onf
irmed
Ca
se C
ount
Da
ily C
hang
e in
C
onf
irmed
Ca
se C
ount
Source: Glenmede, Johns Hopkins University Data through 3/12/2020Data shown in charts on the left are the daily changes in confirmed cases of COVID-19 by region. Charts on the right show each country’s stock market performance relat ive to the global equity market (MSCI ACWI) since the beginning of 2020, indexed to 100 at 12/31/2019. MSCI indexes are market capitalization indexes of large-cap stocks in each respect ive region. One cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance may not be indicative of future result s.
AN INVESTOR’S TIME HORIZON INFORMS INVESTMENT STRATEGY
21
Average Return
Positive Frequency
6mo
2.0%
56%
1yr
14.0%
78%
3yr
43.9%
89%
5yr
71.1%
100%
10yr.
212.1%
100%
S&P 500 Total Return After Hitting a Bear Market (Down 20% from All-Time Highs)
Source: Glenmede, FactSet Data through 03/14/2020Data shown is the cumulat ive total return for the S&P 500 index after a t ransition from a bull market to a bear market . A bear market is defined as a 20%+ decline from all-t ime highs. Data in the table shows the percentage of t imes the S&P 500 posted a posit ive return and the average return from the day in which the S&P 500 enters a bear market . Data begins after World War II (1946). The S&P 500 is a market capitalization weighted index of large-cap stocks in the U.S.. Past performance may not be indicative of future result s. One cannot invest direct ly in an index.
SUMMARY
22
1How bad can this get?• Expect a material economic and earnings impact,
primarily in Q2• Monetary policy has stepped up to the plate, look to
fiscal spend as the more potent stimulus ahead
2What are the investment implications?• Risk assets now sit at more attractive valuations• There have been signs of investor capitulation• Markets appear to be sensitive to turning points in new
cases• Market volatility creates opportunity for long-term
investors
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