Shaun McDaid (University of Huddersfield) & Kacper Rekawek (Polish Institute of International Affairs)

Political Studies Association of Ireland Conference, Derry/Londonderry 19-21 October 2012.

Up the (Main)stream without a paddle? The Irish Labour Party’s Electoral Future

Futurology? We don’t offer a philosophical or theoretical

reflection on how Labour might develop We draw on opinion poll evidence and from

examples of other periods in the party’s history, particularly 1987-1992, which saw the party make comparable gains

Fig. 12011 versus 2007 results

Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin 0

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Labour in 2011 – Major breakthrough? An ‘earthquake election’? (Gallagher and

Marsh, 2011; Hutcheson, 2011).

In 2011, Labour became the second largest party in the state for the first time

Highest share of vote since 1922

Largest number of seats ever (37)

How did this happen? Public confidence in party leader, Eamon

Gilmore Prevention and management of

factionalism within the party More centralised organisation control

over candidate selection, (see also Reidy, 2011), electoral literature etc. ‘Party pledge’.

Domination of leftist rivals, e.g. Sinn Féin

What kind of party is Labour? Major, minor, both – or neither? Major party – +15% of vote (Mair, 1987) O’Malley (2010) – <25% midpoint

number of seats as the two largest parties

Relevance – coalition potential (Sartori, 1976)

Does Labour require a new category?

A ‘mainstream’ party? What is a mainstream party? Often close to major party; potential

party of government; not ideologically constrained from coalition participation

More influence than a mass party of left or right, if less numerical support

Regularly poll more than its overall average in terms of %FPVs.

Labour’s average vote share 1923-2011

Figure 2. Changes in percentage of ILP vote

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General election

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Labour: a proximal mainstream party? McDaid and Rekawek (2010; 2012)

Coalition potential

Occasional party of government

Different from a relevant minor party, which need only be in government once

Consistently poll, on average, 10 per cent or more

Labour’s overall average is 11.25%, 1923-2011

Did Labour break the mould in 2011?

Has Labour now become a ‘major’ player in the Irish party system?

Will the 2011 election result in a re-alignment of the party system?

Second party strength in Ireland

Nov. 1982 1992 2002 20110

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Frankfurt’s way (and Albert’s way) Previous episodes from the party’s

history are instructive During the 1987-92 period, Dick Spring

made a name for the party by attacking Fianna Fáil

Yet, in 1992, it decided to coalesce with it

Electoral backlash “[W]e [ILP] didn’t succeed at all … We did

the opposite of what people wanted us to do. People wanted us to deal with Fianna Fáil and get rid of them, put them in their place, and … we join them! And when you join those people, the people who have given you that vote were aghast.”

(Interview with Joe Costello, TD)

Gilmore’s pre-election comments “If the Taoiseach's Government knew

Anglo-Irish Bank was insolvent and he asked the Irish taxpayer to bail it out and to pay the cost we are now paying for it, that was and is economic treason”.

“It’s Frankfurt’s way or Labour’s way.”

Gilmore’s post election comments “Those who make the call for not repaying

[Anglo-Irish uninsured bondholders] have never spelled out what those consequences are”. (Irish Times, 24 Jan. 2012)

"It's a bit of a sickener to have to pay it, there is no doubt about that.” (Breakingnews.ie, 25 Jan, 2012)

Party member’s views “Fine Gael and Labour will be the two

major parties going forward, certainly for the next five to ten years until things improve.” (Interview with Ray Kavanagh, National Executive)

Coalescing with Fine Gael “reinforces the previous pattern” and prevents the sought after left-right alignment. (Interview with Patrick Nulty, TD)

Effects Gilmore’s popularity sliding – 23% (Oct. 2012).

Enda Kenny/Gerry Adams most popular leaders

Poorer organisational coherence – Shortall resignation, ‘lack of support’, etc.

Internal divisions manifesting: Broughan, Nulty, Penrose, Shortall – although still no formal group like Labour Left, Militant, etc.

Loss of dominance of the Irish left – Sinn Féin now the leading voice

A pre-election backlash? (Red C Sunday Business Post poll data)

Sep June May0

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And the most recent poll …

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Irish Times 17 October 2012

Irish Times 17 Oc-tober 2012

Stuck in the mainstream? Fine Gael appear safe as the largest

party Fianna Fáil is holding up well (by some

measures the 2nd party) Sinn Féin are the big winners so far Labour could be the ‘biggest loser’ Evidence suggests a perpetuation of the

cycle, and return to ‘proximal mainstream’ status in the years ahead

Contact details Shaun McDaid, University of

Huddersfield – S.McDaid@hud.ac.uk

Kacper Rekawek, Polish Institute of International Affairs – rekawek@pism.pl