united nations technical mission on the drought …

MISSION REPORT

UNITED NATIONS TECHNICAL MISSIONON THE DROUGHT SITUATION

IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

TEHRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN

The Drought Situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran UN Mission Report, August 2000

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authorities of the I.R. of Iran and the UNDP Office in Tehran provided every possiblesupport to the mission, including full access to information, documents, statistics, and otherfacilities. They also provided official representatives and interpreters to accompany themission.

The members of the UN team would like to take this opportunity to express their gratitude toall officials of the Government of the I.R. of Iran, provincial and local authorities, and theUnited Nations Office in I.R. of Iran, who enabled the mission to achieve its objectives.

The mission would also like to thank the diplomatic community of the donor countriesrepresented in I.R. of Iran, and UN agencies, for their cooperation and support.


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TABLE OF CONTENT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

I. INTRODUCTION 7a. Regional Context 7b. Drought situation in the I. R. of Iran 7c. Technical Mission by the United Nations 7

II. STATUS OF THE DROUGHT AND ITS CONSEQUENCES 8a. Precipitation and Water Resources 8b. Health and Drinking Water Supply 9c. Livestock and Agriculture 11d. Environment impact 16e. Trans-boundary migration 17

III. NATIONAL RESPONSES TO DATE 18a. Institutional Set-up to Cope with the Drought 18b. National Emergency Relief and Budgetary Provisions 18

IV. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT 20

V. EMERGENCY NEEDS 21a. Drinking water 21b. Livestock and agriculture 21

VI. MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE: NATIONAL POLICY,STRATEGY AND ACTION TO COPE WITH DROUGHT 22a. Hydrologic and Water Resources 22b. Drinking Water Supply 24c. Livestock and Agriculture 25

VII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 26a. Conclusions 26b. Recommendations for Emergency Relief 28c. Recommendations for Medium-and long-term strategy 31

MAPS AND ANNEXES 35-67Map I: Map of the I.R. of Iran 36Map II: Drought-affected areas map 37Annex I: Estimates of damages 38Annex II: Analytical report on drought by the Ministry of Energy 39Annex III: TOR of the mission 62Annex IV: List of officials met 63Annex V: Programme of the Mission 65Annex VI: UN Agencies in the Islamic Republic of Iran 66


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

a. Main findings

A severe drought in 1999 followed by an extreme drought in 2000 has proved to be adisastrous combination for the I.R. of Iran. The worst in 30 years, the drought has seriouslyaffected 18 of the country’s 28 provinces, mostly in southern, eastern and central Iran.

According to some estimates, all but the 3 northern provinces are experiencing a shortage ofdrinking water. Some 37 million people, or more than 50% of the population, are affected bythe drought to varying degrees.

The drought disaster is placing an extreme strain on water resources, drinking water supplysystems, livestock and agriculture. It is the cause of great hardship and human suffering,impacting vulnerable groups, particularly in rural areas, who have no alternative source ofincome and are still feeling the heavy losses they incurred last year.

The drought has adversely affected nearly all drinking water supply systems in both rural andurban areas. In over 70% of rural areas, the flow of water has been disrupted to varyingdegrees – from moderate to severe. Almost 80% of drinking-water wells suffer from lowwater yield, a drop in the water table, intrusion of salt water, or complete dryness.

National health authorities are carefully monitoring the health situation. Any epidemic orunusual occurrence of disease in drought-affected areas is diligently checked, particularly forcholera (Eltor). No major health concern of large proportion has thus far been detected.However, as serious water shortages and other drought-related conditions are likely toworsen, a favorable environment for sudden outbreaks of diarrhoeal and communicablediseases could be expected.

As the drought continues, affected population’s dependency on mobile and stationary watertankers will increase dramatically. In spite of efforts made by the authorities, the supply ofwater to open-air reservoirs by mobile-tankers increases the risk of water contamination.

The drought has caused agricultural losses of 2.8 million tons in wheat and 280,000 tons inbarley, with an attendant loss of stubble as fodder resources. Areas normally sown to Alfalfafor hay for use by returning nomadic stocks are now almost non-existent.

The drought is severely impacting the number and productivity of commonly held livestock.This situation will worsen by early 2001, even with the advent of normal rain in November.Over 200,000 nomadic livestock herders have lost and are continuing to lose their onlysource of livelihood. Unless immediate measures are taken to arrest this loss, this populationmay be displaced.

The effects of drought on the livestock population will be felt beyond the immediate sixmonths. An estimated 800,000 small animals have died already of malnutrition and disease,and further deaths from starvation and dehydration will occur during the short term. The lossin reproduction among the surviving stock this year will impact household returns. The lossof breeding females, both from private herds and the national inventory, will be felt forseveral years after the drought has broken.

The drought is producing a spectrum of serious negative impacts, and taking a tremendoustoll on the environment. This disaster is affecting both human and natural environment. Manylakes and wetlands of international significance for waterfowl, registered sites protected bythe Ramsar Convention, are severely damaged. Several of them have dried up completely.


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If the current drought persists and the situation deteriorates, increased movement of displacedpersons towards Iran can be expected. In particular, drought-affected populations fromAfghanistan may cross the Iranian border in large numbers. These displaced villagers, whocome to Iran in search of water and pasture, are considered drought victims and not refugees.This eventuality is a matter of serious concern for the Iranian authorities, a number of UNagencies, and the international community.

With the acute water shortage, it is estimated that over 60% of the rural population may beforced to migrate to cities. The migration may put city-dwellers that are susceptible todisease, especially children at much higher risk. Unable to afford the expenses associatedwith medical care, some people are forgoing it altogether. This forced rural-urban migrationcould have serious social, economic, political and environmental ramifications.

The overall drought situation in Iran may further worsen in the months to come, as summertemperatures continue to rise and rain is not expected until November. The enormous scopeof the drought disaster is overwhelming the Government’s capabilities and resources, whichare already over-stretched.

b. Emergency Need for International Assistance

Immediate donor response in the following areas will be critical to assist the most seriouslyaffected populations.

Water

The greatest need in the affected provinces is for drinking water. The magnitude of the watercrisis is such that urgent donor response in support of the Government’s efforts is required.Priority needs include:

• A total of 10,000 mobile water tankers are required to deliver drinking water for rural,urban and nomadic populations, as well as for livestock. International assistance isrequested to supply a minimum of 1,000 tankers with a capacity of 18-24 thousand litres.

• 10,000 stationary tankers (e.g. plastic) of 5-10 thousand litres capacity.

• 750 km of ductile iron, Glass Reinforced Plastic (GRP), Heavy Duty Polyethylene (HDP),and PVC pipes for urban water supplies.

• 1,800 km of HDP pipes for rural water supplies.

• 2,000 chlorinators.

• 10 tons raw material and resin to produce HDP and GRP

• 100 chlorination gas cylinders.

• 300 submersible electric pumps with the capacity of 40-100 litres per second andpumping head of 100-150 meters.

• 400 submersible electric pumps with the capacity of 5-20 litres per second and pumpinghead of 50-100 meters.

• 150 ultrasonic well water meters.

• 100 leak detection instruments and accessories.

• Chlorine powder, aluminum sulphide, ferric chloride, and poly chlorite.

• 5 percussion well drilling machines.


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• 150 water analysis kits (chemical and biological).

• 50 water bottling and packing units.

• Experts/consultants on water quality management and hydrology.

Livestock/Agriculture

The second greatest need of the drought-affected population is for livestock and agriculturalsupport. Priority needs include:

• Water tankers (up to 400 units. A minimum of 180 units for immediate assistance on thebasis of an average of ten units for each affected province for provision of livestock waterfor immediate assistance)

• 28 tons of multivitamin and mineral feed supplements on the basis of an allocation of twotons per province. The Veterinary Organization will provide specifications for these andthe veterinary items (see below). The Ministry of Jihad will have responsibility forreceipting them on arrival and arranging their distributing through its provincialveterinary organizations and through the livestock raisers cooperatives.

• Up to one million tons of grain barley to be assigned to the worst affected provinces anddistributed through the cooperatives and under the administration of the Ministry of Jihadin proportion to the affected livestock units in each province.

• Veterinary supplies - preventive medicines (antibiotics and vaccines – 5 million doses ofFMD vaccine), filaricides against TBD, and 60 tons of livestock insecticide andacaracides (Cyclometrine/Asuntol) for external parasite control.

• Grant assistance to provide medium-term loans to drought-affected livestock raisers.

• Up to 1,500 electric pumps ranging from 3-185kw for provision of water for agriculturalholdings.

• 100 electro-diesel pumps.

• Grant assistance to provide medium term loans to drought-affected livestock raisers.

As in any other disaster, it is understood that international assistance would not substitute theGovernment’s efforts, but supplement them in the most critical areas. In order to expeditedelivery, local purchase of available items is recommended.

Medical Supplies

• The diagnostic laboratory kits for Tuberculoses, Cholera, Measles, Meningitis, Typhoid,Dysentery, Salmonelosis and Parasitic diseases;

• ORS powder, IVFs;

• Hypersonic Glucose Vial, Potassium Chloride and Bicarbonate Vials;

• Pesticides and poisons for vector control;

• Drugs, including: Tetracycline, Doxycycline, Ciprefloxacin, TMP-SMX, Erythromicin,Furazolidone, Chloramphenicol, Ampicilin, Ceftriaxone, Cefotaxine, Ceftizoxime,Metronidazole, Iodoquinol, Diloxanidefurlate, Parmomycin, Penicillin, Diloxanidefurlate,Parmomycin, Penicillin G, Gentamycin, Chloroquine, Primaquine, Quinine, Quinidine,Permethrine, (5%, 1%), Lindane, Malathione (0.5%), Ophthalmic Ointment Tetracycline,Clootimazole cream, Miconazole cream, Immune Globulin, Vitamin A Preparation,Botulism trivalent equine antitoxin.


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Constraints

The greatest constraint is time. To be effective, international assistance should be providedpractically immediately.

Donors can make their contributions directly to the Iranian Government or to relevant UNagencies (Annex VI). The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) isprepared to serve as a channel for unearmarked contributions to be used for reliefassistance. These will then be allocated in consultation with the Government of Iran andrelevant organizations in the United Nations system. Funds should be transferred to OCHAaccount No. CO-590.160.0, Swift code: UBSWCHZ12A at the UBS AG, P.O. Box 2770, CH-1211 Geneva 2, with reference: OCHA - Iran - Drought. OCHA provides donors with writtenconfirmation and pertinent details concerning the utilization of the funds contributed. Forcoordination purposes, donors are requested to inform OCHA Geneva of bilateral reliefmissions/pledges/contributions and their corresponding values by item.


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I. INTRODUCTION

a. Regional Context

Central and South Asia are currently suffering from severe drought. The countries mostaffected are Afghanistan, India, I.R. of Iran, Pakistan, and Tajikistan. Additionally, Mongolia,northern and western China, Iraq, Uzbekistan, Syria and Jordan are experience droughtconditions, giving the drought a regional aspect. Drought is now considered to be a recurringphenomenon in the region. Making sustainable long-term solutions and mitigationprogrammes a regional and country-specific requirement. Also, emergency relief operationsare called for to address specific requirements of each affected country.

b. Drought Situation in the I. R. of Iran

A severe drought in 1999 followed by an extreme drought in 2000 has proved a disastrouscombination for Iran. It has affected 18 of the country’s 28 provinces, mostly in southern,eastern and central areas. According to some estimates, all but 3 northern provinces nowhave a shortage of drinking water, while some 37 million people, or more than 50% of thepopulation are affected to varying degrees.

The crisis is compounded by other factors, including population growth, an increased level offood requirements, an increase in cultivated land, and an increase in the number of livestock.Together with the present drought situation, these factors have placed an extreme strain onwater resources both for potable and agricultural uses. The shortage of water is leading tohuman suffering and greater hardships among more of the population. In particular, it hasseriously affected the most vulnerable groups, particularly the nomadic population and othersliving in the rural areas.

As summer temperatures continue to rise and rains are not expected until November, thesituation may worsen and turn into a disaster in the months to come. Even if sporadic orregular rainfall materializes, it will only decrease the likelihood of longer-term damages,while the present situation is unlikely to change. The magnitude of the drought isoverwhelming. In spite of the Government’s efforts, its resources are already over-stretched.

c. Technical Mission by the United Nations

Subsequent to the information provided by the Government on damages as a result of theextreme drought, the UN Resident Coordinator issued a short press release on the droughtsituation on 9 May 2000. In late May, two staff member from UNDP and FAO in Tehranvisited four of the hardest-hit provinces (Sistan-Baluchestan, Ilam, Khuzestan and Khorasan).Their mission report and related videotapes confirmed the seriousness of the situation andindicated that the drought was intensifying. A UN Inter-Agency Task Force on Drought wasestablished in I.R. of Iran to monitor the situation closely and to facilitate coordination amongUN agencies in the I.R. of Iran. In Geneva, the UN Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC)formed a Drought Task Force to monitor the drought situation in Asia. It is chaired by theOffice for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) of the United Nations.

Recognizing the severity of the situation, the United Nations and the Government jointlyagreed to field an inter-agency needs assessment mission, as well as to provide some limitedlogistics support and relief items. UNDP covered part of the cost of the mission under a projectthat was approved on 17 July 2000 with a total UNDP contribution of US $85,000. OCHA,UNICEF, FAO, WHO and UNESCO also participated and contributed financially. It is hoped


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that the mission will help raise awareness of the serious situation and generate internationalsupport to complement the Government’s efforts.

The mission, which was led by a representative of OCHA and comprised of representativesfrom the participating agencies, visited the I.R. of Iran from 23 July to 5 August 2000 andreported its findings to the international community.1 Field visits were limited by time to thethree provinces of Hormozgan, Fars and Yazd. These were considered representative enoughof the overall situation, and enabled the mission to obtain a reasonably representative view ofthe drought throughout Iran. The following main activities were carried out in a limitedamount of time:

− reviewed the existing data and information available on the drought− met with relevant central and provincial authorities.− visited the hardest hit provinces to assess immediate requirements.− analyzed the effect of drought-related factors on relevant technical sectors.− identified needs for immediate international assistance.− formulated proposals for a medium and long-term strategy to mitigate the impact of

future droughts.

The Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran and UNDP Office in Tehran prepared theground for the mission and backstopped the mission. This report was prepared in closecollaboration with all UN partners present in Tehran, and in consultation with relevantnational authorities.

II. STATUS OF THE DROUGHT AND ITS CONSEQUENCES

a. Precipitation and Water Resources

The precipitation in Iran occurs almost exclusively in winter and early spring, the climate isthus Mediterranean rather than Central Asian. Annual rainfall is an average 252-mmannually, ranging from less than 50 mm in the deserts to more than 1600 mm on the Caspianplain. Most rivers are small and steep and those in the interior of the country end in desertdepressions. The Karun River, which with a length of 890 km is the largest, is the onlynavigable river. Most rivers are seasonal. Approximately 90% of the country is arid to semi-arid. Summer and winter temperature ranges are extreme. The winter temperatures in themountains are very low and precipitation there is mostly snow. The snow can and in somecases does melt very quickly, causing destructive flash floods and the disappearance ofprecious surface and groundwater reserves.

Precipitation has been far below average for the second consecutive year in most parts of thecountry. For the hydrological year 1999-2000 it was only 62% (132 mm) of the normalaverage (212 mm), following the already low 1998-99 figure of 81%. These figures do notfully depict the severity of the diminishing precipitation, nor within-and-between-regionaldiscrepancies – this year, in large parts of Yazd and Sistan-Baluchestan precipitation was lessthan 50 mm. Within regions there were also some areas where no rain has fallen for the last30 months. The statistical probability of such a drought occurring is once every 30 years.

1 The mission was comprised of Mr. Vladimir Sakharov (OCHA) team leader, Dr. Kewmars Khosh-Chasm(WHO) health expert, Dr. Mandana Askarinasab (UNICEF) Monitoring and Evaluation Officer, Dr. FrederikHendrik Verhoog (UNESCO) hydrologist, and Mr. Rodrick Oliver Kennard (FAO) consultant livestock expert.The mission was accompanied in the field by Mr. Hassan Azadeh from the Disaster Task force of the Ministryof Interior, and Mahmoud Yazdi of the Ministry of Interior. Mr. Haoliang Xu, UNDP Deputy ResidentRepresentative coordinated the exercise with the support of Dr. Soudabeh Amiri, UNDP Consultant.


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The surface water flows mainly between January and mid-April. The data shows a substantialdecline for this year, and depending on location of the basin measured, ranged from 40% to92%. The river flows that were already low in 1999 have declined further in 2000. The lossof surface flow has impacted negatively on water storage in behind-dam reservoirs and in thereplenishment of underground aquifers. The eastern part of the country has been mostaffected.

Groundwater was also replenished much less in the present hydrological year, due to lowerprecipitation and the exceptionally quick snowmelt during a warm period in April. The worsthit regions are those in the east, south and southeast regions where reserves are at extremelylow levels and in several areas are completely exhausted. In southern Fars the groundwaterhas become saline and in Yazd, 2500 qanats are completely dry. In these provinces there ismuch less water available for agriculture. The situation is also serious in the centralprovinces. In short, the regions most affected by water shortages are: southern Sistan-Baluchestan, western Hormozgan, eastern Fars, western Karman, most of Yazd and parts ofcentral Isfahan. Less seriously, but still badly affected are areas around Orumieh lake, theMarkazi province, and adjoining regions in the neighboring provinces of Tehran and Semnan,northeastern Iran as a whole, and Khorasan in particular.

Map 2 attached depicts the present seriousness of the situation. A more complete picture ofthe impact of the drought from a hydrological and water resources perspective is provided inAnnex 2.

b. Health and Drinking Water Supply

Health

Available data indicate that to date there is no particular epidemic as a result of the drought.However, due to the magnitude of disruption to supply systems for safe drinking water in therural areas, the population is exposed to higher risks of enteric, diarrhoeal and water borndiseases particularly in Hormozgan, Southern Fars and Yazd. Some reports indicate cases ofskin and eye infections due to the lack of adequate water and consequent deterioration ofsanitary conditions. The poor condition of livestock and the number of animals infected withenteric and skin parasites increase the probability of zoonotic diseases among drought-affected people. The risk of deteriorating health and increasing child and maternal morbidityand mortality is also increasing due to pre-existing malnutrition in the under-developed areasof some provinces,

With exception of diarrhoeal diseases and measles to some extent, there is no evidence of achanging pattern in other diseases such as meningitis and respiratory tract infection. Ingeneral however, the drought has adversely affected the epidemiological pattern of certaincommunicable and contagious disease within and outside the borders of Iran. As a regionalphenomenon the drought has forced the migration of drought victims to neighboringcountries. Considering this and the general weakening of natural immunity, the risk ofepidemic is likely to worsen if the situation continues.

Drinking Water Supply

Prior to the deterioration of conditions, close to 96% of urban and 87% of the ruralpopulation had access to safe drinking water. More than 700 piped-water networks weresupplying disinfected water at an average rate of 200-300 litres per person per day in theurban areas, while over 10,000 piped-water networks and individual piping systems suppliedan average of 150 litres per person per day in the rural areas. There has been a severe drop inwater per capita provided both through the urban and the rural water supply systems. The


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quantity of urban water supply has now fallen between 10-90% while on average, thequantity of water now supplied in urban areas has fallen by an estimated 30%, or a reductionof 1.8 billion cubic meters annually.

Besides reduced quantity, the lack of surface water flow and ground water recharge hasresulted in a deterioration in the water quality of surface and ground water and in many citiesdrinking water is rapidly becoming less potable. In the larger cities such as Abadan,Khoramshahr, Qom, and Zahedan, the capacity of urban water supply has been substantiallylost.

Out of the 700 urban water supply networks, 94 suffer from severe water shortages, and assuch unable to supply sufficient water to approximately 5.6 million people. More cities arelikely to fall into the water-scarce category during the 3rd quarter of 2000, and encounterwater crisis. Since in all probability there will be no substantial rainfall from now untilNovember, more than 10 million urban dwellers are expected to face some forms of watershortage by the end of September 2000. Tehran water authorities have begun issuingwarnings that the city and its environs will face serious shortages starting next month.

Currently the populations of many towns and cities in the south are supplied by mobile water-tankers. The reliance on tankered water is expected to increase drastically in the next twomonths. In the hardest hit provinces such as Sistan-Baluchestan, there is now waterrationing.

In the rural areas, many wells, springs and streams have gone completely dry and thesituation there is much worse. About 4.4 million persons in 6,538 villages in 21 provinceswho are served by 3,287 water systems are now affected. Due to severe water shortages,these water supply systems are no longer able to provide adequate water. If this rapid patterncontinues, over 7,000 piped water systems will have failed by the end of September.

Consequences of the drought on drinking water supply

Falling water tables, reducing water yields from wells and failure of water supply systemshave created a water crisis in many drought-affected areas. There are reduced river flows andan inability to harvest water for water supply systems has compounded the problem. Thedrought has affected 9,136 qanats (underground water canals), 3,721 springs and a largenumber of wells in Khorasan province alone. More than 475 rural water supply systems in theFars province have also been severely affected.

Rivers and streams are no longer moving and the stagnant pools they have become areincreasingly polluted. In the southern provinces and elsewhere, the traditional water cisterns(Berkeh) built on seasonal floodwater beds are almost dry. The residues of polluted waterremaining in these cisterns are used for drinking purposes because there is no otheralternative. This poses a severe health risk. Water in some aquifers has become undrinkable.

Large number of cities and villages are relying on water tankers to meet minimum waterneeds. More than 300 villages and approximately 140,000 people in Hormozgan provincealone now rely entirely on tankers. As water shortages become more general, this reliance ontankers must increase. Sistan-Baluchestan, Khorasan, Hormozgan, Fars, and Yazd) are theprovinces most severely affected by shortages of safe drinking water. Serving villagers withmobile and stationary water tankers has become arduous and expensive. It is felt that thereare no alternatives for an urgent provision of potable water.

Tankered water is sometimes only provided at specified times or on certain days. Thisintermittent system of supply increases the risk of contamination. The rationing, by forcing


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households to store water in whatever containers are available, increases the risk thatimproper containers are used.

Delivery by tankers increases the probability of water contamination and as a health threat, isa concern of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME). MOHME hasidentified deterioration in drinking water quality, for example in rural Kermanshah province,since the drought began. Out of the 757 rural drinking water samples tested there, 43% hadbacteriological contamination. Similar tests conducted in Fars indicated levels ofcontamination as high as 33%.

Provincial authorities are forced to cover the cost of water transportation by tankers andpeople are paying $0.75 per cubic meters, which for a drought-affected family is anexorbitant cost. The drought has demonstrated the fragility and precariousness of waterresources used for water supply. Since majorities of the water networks are affected and thelevel of vulnerability goes across the board, there appears to be a need to review the rationaleand standards for water resource planning and programming.

Being cognizant of its importance, the national authorities have already begun evaluatingtheir present plans and programmes and are devising long-term strategies to mitigate watershortages. For instance, in some regions water is pumped from long distances away to thetargeted areas sometimes from several hundred kilometers. Naturally such schemes requirehuge investments.

A large number of such schemes are already under construction. Due to the lack of funds andrequired materials (e.g. pumps, pipes, fixtures, etc.), many are not progressing as planned.Presently the provincial and local authorities are severely short of budgets, credits and financialfacilities to cope with the minimum needs of the drought-affected people.

The authorities are concentrating on locating tankers to augment the heavily damaged watersupply systems to cope with the immediate water shortages caused by the drought. Theemergency operation has forced the postponement or at least temporary shut down of long-term development of water supply projects.

c. Livestock and Agriculture

Livestock

Livestock provide the livelihood of persons engaged in commercial sheep fattening, dairycattle and poultry and they are the main support base for large numbers of nomadic livestockherders. The Government estimates the population of sheep and goats at 81 million heads,with nomadic sheep and goats comprising 80% of these. There are about eight million nativeand improved cattle. The native cattle are raised by the nomads mainly, as are camels,although some cattle (dairy and fattening) are also held by sedentary livestock raisers in theperi-urban areas. Poultry are raised commercially in specialized enterprises for meat andeggs.

Nomads constitute the majority of livestock raising families who rely on the rangelandentirely, occupying rangeland in twenty out of the 28 provinces in the country. An estimated1.3 million persons in 200,000 nomadic households are dependent on the range to someextent, owning between them about 22.5 million livestock, which with the exception of somecattle, are almost entirely sheep and goats. Their flocks may have as many as 500 animals,with some seen by the mission having upwards of two thousand sheep and goats. Thesehouseholds rely entirely on their animals for their living, normally deriving income from thesale of milk, cheese, wool and mohair, and from the sale of fattened spring lambs. TheOrganization of Nomadic Affairs in the Ministry of Jihad reports 85% of these livestock to be


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drought affected. The other rangeland users, whose reliance on it the Ministry of Jihad reportsas varying between five and 90% of feed needs, are the traditional sedentary sheep producers.

The IRI has approximately 90 million hectares of rangeland, distributed among all of theprovinces. It varies considerably in quality and thus its capacity to support animals. Figuresreleased by the Technical Bureau of Range Management within the Ministry of Jihad, showthat the area, quality and productivity of the rangeland has declined substantially in recentyears. Its total reported area in 1963 was 100 million hectares and it had a quality whichranged from good (450 kg. annual DM/ha/annum) to poor (30 kg. DM/ha/annum), producingan estimated 14 million tons of dry matter overall. The 1980 records, which are the mostrecent, show a ten percent loss in the overall rangeland area and a fall in productivity to 10million tons of DM, as well as a per-hectare loss of productivity for all three rangelandclasses since 1963. In spite of efforts to arrest this decline, the Technical Bureau estimatesthat poor quality rangeland has increased further to 43 percent of the total, while the area offirst grade rangeland is down to just over nine million hectares, or less than half of the 1963figure.

Rangeland Characteristics in Iran (1963-2000)

1963 Good Average Poor TotalArea (million ha) 19 25 56 100Dm (kg./ha) 450 150 30 330Total usable DM(million tons)

8.55 3.75 1.68 14

1980Area (million ha) 14 16 60 90Dm (kg./ha) 290 92 26 215Total usable DM(million tons)

4.06 5.52 0.42 10

2000Area (million ha) 9.3 37.3 43.4 90Loss since 1963 (%) 49 149 78 90

Source: Forest and Range Organization, Technical Bureau for Range management,Ministry of Jihad.

Because it is considered by its users as a ‘free’ resource, most sheep and goats and somecamels are raised on these seasonal pastures for as long as possible throughout the year. Thisis often year-round. In general these animals are moved between summer and winterrangeland areas for part of the year, and they are grazed on crop stubble and are hand-fed onthe agricultural areas during the remainder, availability permitting. Their reliance onsupplementary feeding and crop residues versus grazing varies between areas and depends onthe quality of rangeland and the local availability of crop residues. Data developed in its five-province study by the Technical Institute suggest that 230 sheep units, each of 40-kgliveweight, need 530 hectares of rangeland to support them for eight months of the year.Compared with the 90-million hectares of rangeland available, the national flock requires atleast 180 million hectares to support them for this period at this stocking intensity, and morethan 270 million hectares if they are supported on the rangeland year-round. At these figures,and ignoring the feed demands of camels and nomadic cattle, the national rangeland in goodseasons is probably overstocked by a factor of more than three hundred percent.


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Besides nomadic livestock production, commercial sheep and goat fattening, and dairyproduction, are also practiced in those provinces which have reasonable areas of irrigatedagriculture. This more intensive raising of livestock relies on the locally produced alfalfa hay,wheat straw and sugar beet pulp, some of which may be imported from other provinces suchas Isfahan. In Yazd province for example, the large numbers of dairy cattle and poultry thereare fed with locally produced maize, wheat bran and barley, supplemented with someimported grain and concentrates. The poultry sector in Yazd is supported similarly on localand imported feed grains, but it also relies on imported Soya-bean and fishmeal.

Effects of Drought on Livestock Production

Rainfall during the twelve months 1998-1999 was substantially less than the 30-year average.Water tables have fallen beyond the reach of pumps and bores, and wells for drinking andstock water are rapidly becoming dry. A number of streams and rivers normally providingenough summer flow for stock water and irrigation purposes have reduced to a trickle. Thewatering points have remained usable only by excavating the dry riverbeds. As wells arebecoming brackish, further consumption of stock and irrigation water during the next threemonths, until the expected rains in November, will result in more of these sources of stockwater failing entirely.

The present shortage is compounded by the wide geographical distribution of livestockraisers, making it impossible to supply stock water to all of the animals affected. While theprovincial authorities are providing some stock by tanker now, they already haveconsiderable logistical difficulties in supplying water in this way, and this situation willworsen as more watering points fail.

The rangeland is without most of its vegetation, in some areas is severely degraded and ingeneral cannot sustain the livestock numbers even of two years ago. Official estimatesclassify all of the rangeland in the worst affected provinces (Khorasan, Sistan-Baluchestan),as poor to extremely poor, with average vegetation coverage down to as little as 12% - thiscomprising mainly low salt-bush and standing artemesia spp. which is dry and weathered andwithout nutritional value. In the higher elevation where ground cover is usually goodthroughout the year, it is completely non-existent. By the end of 1999, the production of drymatter (DM) on rangeland in Khorasan had reportedly fallen by two thirds to 20 kg. perhectare, down from the 63 kg per hectare production of normal years. Mission observation ofrangeland vegetation in Hormozgan, Khuzestan, Fars and Yazd provinces, indicate a furtherloss of dry matter for the first six months of 2000. Losses of similar magnitude are likely onthe rangeland of other provinces.

Such overgrazing and drought has contributed substantially to rangeland degradation. Newgrass cover has failed to develop and establish with the little rain that occurred in late 1999 orhaving developed, the new growth was grazed before it became mature. With the littlevegetative cover the rangeland now has generally, it is considerably more exposed to the riskof erosion by wind and water. The reduction in rangeland grazing and the failure of stockwatering points has forced livestock raisers to congregate around the watering points whichare still functioning. This has further degraded localized areas of rangeland in their immediatevicinity.

There are no available data on the number of households affected by the drought, although itis clear that drought is affecting more people daily. In the areas where the drought has beenmost severe, it has impacted critically both on livestock and the incomes of livestock raisers,particularly those of the nomads. The mission interviewed households in Hormozgan


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Province which reported having lost between half and all of their livestock, while somevillages in the same province even camels were dying and almost no livestock remained.Raisers in the agricultural areas of Yazd consistently report this year’s lamb crop to be downby up to fifty percent of normal production. Local government in Khuzestan estimates thatfive percent of surviving lambs have been sold underweight to date and have had to bedisposed of well before their normal turnoff age of six months. The Government also statesthat liveweights among surviving animals are down by about eight percent. Where thedrought has been most severe, the households already affected are in considerable difficulty,with neither agriculture nor livestock to support them.

The effect of the drought on livestock has not been uniform between provinces and betweenareas in the same provinces. There is little feed and water in Hormozgan, Southern Khorasan,Northern Sistan-Baluchestan provinces and elsewhere, where deaths from starvation and lackof water have been most commonly reported and raisers in some cases have lost all of theiranimals. In Yazd and Fars provinces however, few deaths from starvation have been reportedalthough enforced sales have been common and production and liveweights are down. Reallosses in these and the provinces where irrigated agriculture continues will be deferred untilfeed and water supplies for agricultural purposes fail entirely.

On government data and information the mission obtained during field interviews, it has beendifficult to arrive at a fair estimate of the proportion and number of animals which have diedduring in the drought so far. The Government puts the national level of sheep and goat deathsat over 800,000 head, or a negligible one percent of all small ruminants. Farmer interviews onthe other hand, suggest that individual flock losses lie anywhere between 20 and 100 percent,both of lambs and adults. If losses on this scale are the norm, the official figures haveunderestimated the real position greatly. However, while it is certainly true that some raisershave lost their flocks entirely and others have lost or sold up to half their animals, losses ofthis magnitude may not have been widespread and it is difficult on available evidence to formthe conclusion that such whole-flock mortality has been common. It is certainly true thatflocks of up to 2,000 animals are still in evidence and flocks of between two and five hundredanimals are common – but this is known with certainty only in the provinces the missionvisited. Against these considerations and imperfect data, and given that individual flocks havebeen reduced considerably over wide areas, a more appropriate provisional figure formortality so far, probably lies between one and ten percent of all livestock.

Feed supplies will disappear over the short-term and stock will have to walk longer distancesto water as watering points fail, making more deaths from starvation and lack of water likelyas the drought continues. These losses will accelerate now that having lost their bodyreserves, the survival of most animals now depends only on the feed available. The feedresources which might otherwise have carried present livestock until after the rains, will beseverely tested with the influx of nomadic raisers moving down from winter to summerpasture over the next few weeks.

On the longer-term, the sector will be effected more by factors which relate to the number ofbreeding females remaining, and by their ability to reproduce effectively, than by theimmediate loss of the animals which have already died. Of greatest significance, is that thesheep and goats are generally in poor condition and their condition is worsening by the day2.The poor condition of the breeding females means that fewer than usual will conceive in

2 Depending on province, veterinary authorities in the Ministry of Jihad report having to destroy between 30 and 50 percent of sheep andgoats purchased in the buyback programme, because of emaciation.


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autumn, and the lamb crop the spring following will be smaller3. The ewes which lamb willdo so in poor condition. They will also milk poorly and many of their lambs may starve.

The government buyback programme has absorbed 1.2 million sheep and goats thus far,while private fatteners have also taken an estimated two million head for fattening andslaughter. For the most part these animals have been the less useful aged breeders and surplusmales and their removal has allowed the flocks to retain a higher than usual proportion offemale breeders, while reducing pressure on the rangeland and to some extent, supportingliveweight prices. This has enabled some female to be retained, but they are now beginning tobe sold, and are entering the fattening units in increasing numbers. The mission was shownunits in Yazd holding as many as 800 ewes. These, and females in similar units will beslaughtered and lost the national flock, while with the increasing loss of feed, more are alsolikely to starve outside the units. Either way, significant numbers of breeding females arelikely to have been lost to the national flock by the time the drought ends. With smallerindividual flocks post-drought, livestock raisers will find it difficult to recover theirlivelihood for some time. From a smaller national breeding base, it will also be increasinglydifficult for the country to match local production of red meat with the demand for itdomestically.

The feed shortage during the last twelve months has resulted in a smaller than normal lambcrop and fewer surviving lambs in the spring. The Government provided the mission withfigures suggesting that a 40% reduction in offtake had already occurred in 1999. Farmerinterviews in a number of provinces also confirm losses of this magnitude. Milk production isalso reported down by 70% in more than half the national flock, while rising feed prices andfalling revenues have also meant that household incomes are lower. The price of grain barleyhas doubled to over US$130 per ton during the past year, Alfalfa hay to US$135, and wheatstraw has also doubled to US$36 per ton. Livestock raisers who would normally buy grainand hay for summer and autumn feeding, now find they cannot. Some raisers interviewedhave sold their stock entirely because of this, or are being forced to sell a few animals at atime to feed the remainder. The increased feed prices have also made dairy production, lamband cattle fattening and poultry production enterprises unprofitable also. While a number ofcommercial production units are still operating now, at present input/output cost ratios theowners of a number the mission visited, are facing closure.

Nomadic livestock are reported to be moving into Iran from Pakistan and Afghanistan inlarge numbers. This movement has increased the risk of epidemic disease outbreaks (FMD4

and rinderpest in cattle, PPR and FMD in sheep and goats). The Government is confident thatwith the exception of PPR, the risk to Iran from most of these diseases has been largelycontained as a result of its interventions. The Government considers the main threat of FMDto be from both the Arab and Kurdish areas of Iraq, although little drought-related livestockmovement into Iran from Iraq has been reported to date. About half of all small ruminants arevaccinated against enterotoxaemia and significant numbers of large and small ruminants aredipped or sprayed against external parasites. The dippings are on the rise in direct response tothe increased parasite burdens the weakened livestock are carrying. With ticks and tick bornediseases (TBD) increasing, government is also concerned about the developing resistance ofblood parasites to the chemicals normally used in treating TBD. In respect of TBD, theMinistry of Health also reports a rise in the number of cases of Congo-Crimea-Fever.

3 Ministry of Jihad estimates at least 20% fewer conceptions.4 There is concern on the part of veterinary authorities that the SAT2 viral strain of FMD may be introduced.


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Agriculture

A total of 14.3 million hectares are under cultivation. Of these, 12.7 million hectares areannual crops and 1.6 million hectares are permanent crops. Rain-fed agriculture is practicedover 6.3 million hectares, but a lack of rainfall precludes cultivation in many areas.

Some 7.9 million hectares, or about half of the total arable land in I.R. of Iran is irrigatedfrom groundwater. Water for irrigation is the single most important factor for cultivation.About 70% of landholders have less than 5.5 hectares, of which less than half on average isirrigated. Most of these small-scale farmers cultivate marginal lands limited by slope anderosion. Wheat and barley comprise about 43% and 13%, respectively, of the total irrigatedand dry land arable areas, while fodder crops, particularly Alfalfa, are about seven percent.Most of the latter is based on irrigation.

The Government is pursuing policies aiming at self-sufficiency in basic foods whilemaintaining low consumer prices. Cropping inputs are subsidized, although the subsidies arebeing slowly phased out. In addition to the adverse effect of water shortage, the sector hasalso been hampered by other constraints including excessive bureaucracy, restrictive tradepolicies and lack of up to date farming techniques.

Effects of Drought on Agriculture

At the outset, it is noteworthy that while the impact of the drought is greatest on theagriculture sector, the effects are generally more developmental with long-lasting adverseconsequences. There are also some immediate hindrances caused by the drought.

The drought has affected both the rain-fed and irrigated areas. The most affected provinces in1998-99 were in the west and north of the country, notably West Azerbaijan, Kurdestan,Zanjan, Ardebil, Kermanshah, Gilan, Lorestan and Markazi. Irrigated and rain-fed wheat andbarley for that year were about 6 million and 2 million hectares, respectively, whileproduction was down by 4.3 million and 0.8 million tons. Fodder crop plantings were justbelow one million hectares for the year. The drought was more extensive during 1999-2000.Wheat and barley plantings for the year were 4.9 million and 1.5 million hectares (80% and75% of the previous year’s areas), while production was down by 2.8 million and 280,000tons respectively from the 1998-99 level.

While grain production has been lower for the last two years, the area of available cropstubble for use as fodder has also been proportionately less. Areas normally sown to Alfalfafor hay used by returning nomadic stock are smaller. Production of Alfalfa is down 38% to4.1 million tons. The decrease of production is greatest in the hardest hit provinces. Forexample, the authorities in two of the provinces visited indicated that the supplies of alfalfaand wheat straw are imported into Yazd and Fars from other provinces. These factors haveresulted in the price hikes as the prices of grain barley and Alfalfa hay are doubling over thelast twelve months. These feedstuffs are reported to be unprocurable or too expensive insome of the affected areas. Livestock raisers in Yazd province report the areas of wheatstubble as being adequate to supply only one fifth of their requirements.

d. Environment Impact

The drought is producing a spectrum of serious negative impacts and taking a tremendous tollon the human and natural environments. The most significant negative effect on the humanenvironment is increased air pollution. Unusual high levels of total suspended particles (TSP)have covered large areas. This is considered to be a consequence of the regional drought


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Lake BakhteganLake Bakhtegan in Fars Province, thesecond largest lake in I.R. of Iran, hasseriously suffered. Because of theprolonged drought it has shrunk andbecame divided into two parts. Themajor part of the lake, together with itssurrounding wetlands, has alreadydried up. The main river that feeds thelake has also disappeared. This uniquelake has a combination of fresh andsalty waters. The area around the lakeis an important breeding site for manyspecies including migratory birds.

problem and it seems that the high TSP levels are also due to winds from the ArabianPeninsula.

The worst damaged elements of the natural environment are the fresh water ecosystems andhabitats, wetlands, vegetation and biodiversity with adverse effects on protected areas.Most rivers and lakes in the affected provinces are drying up, or have already disappeared.The impact and severity of the extremely low water flows is becoming much moreapparent. Lower levels of oxygen are putting fish at risk in the water domains that stillexist. Habitats are disappearing and ecosystems are becoming unhealthy. The aquatic lifeforming part of these ecosystems has disappeared or is under extreme stress due to the lossof habitat.

Most lakes and wetlands of internationalsignificance for waterfowl, registered as protectedRamsar Sites, are severely damaged. Several havealready dried up. Among them are Bakhtegan-Nairiz, Hamoun-e-Saberi, South end of Hamoun-e-puzak, and Gavkhouni.

Trans-boundary rivers have also been adverselyaffected. In particular, the Hirmand riveroriginating in Afghanistan has been completelydry for the past five months. Consequently, theSistan region that depends mostly on Hirmand forits water supply has lost its primary mater source.In addition, Hamoon, a large lake in Sistan-Baluchestan that normally receives water fromHirmand has disappeared completely. This lakeformerly irrigated some 650,000 hectares of agricultural land.

Several other important ecological areas are severely damaged. An estimated 9.6 millionhectares of forest and woodlands are endangered, while important afforestationprogrammes and projects to combat desertification, carried out by central and provincialauthorities, are at risk. Another potentially harmful result of the present drought isdiminished vegetation cover that could cause serious floods in many regions, when rainsarrive in the spring.

e. Trans-boundary migration

Trans-boundary migration of population and movements of livestock have been reported.With further deterioration of the present situation, increased movement of affected peoplefrom neighboring countries towards I.R. of Iran may be expected. In particular, drought-affected populations and their livestock from Afghanistan may cross the I.R. of Iranianborders in larger numbers. This will undoubtedly exacerbate the already serious water andfodder shortages in the region and put even more pressure on the ecosystem. Thesedisplaced villagers, who come to I.R. of Iran in search of water and pasture, are consideredas drought victims and not refugees. Consequently, no traditional refugee protection isprovided to them. This eventuality is a matter of serious concern for the I.R. of Iranianauthorities, a number of UN agencies, and the international community at large.


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International Assistance to DateUnder its poverty alleviation programme,the Italian government is planning toprovide some relief items to the drought-affected population in Sistan-Baluchestan.While no specific details are provided, theJapanese government has indicated itwould provide some emergency items toaddress the water-shortage in one of themost seriously affected provinces. TheEuropean Union recently approved Euro400,000, to be provided through the DutchRed Cross, for emergency relief in Iran.UN agencies such as UNDP (US$60,000),UNICEF (US$ 75,000) and OCHA havealready allocated funds and areconsidering additional contributions to thedrought relief effort. Other UN agenciessuch as FAO and UNFPA are evaluatingmedium and long-term drought-assistanceprojects. The UN also proposescoordinating with the donor community insupporting the Government’s droughtmitigation efforts.

III. NATIONAL RESPONSES TO DATE

a. Institutional Set-up to Cope with the Drought

National Structure

Emergency relief operations in the I.R. of Iran are the responsibility of the Ministry of theInterior through its national Disaster Task Force (DTF), whilst emergency relief responseacross sectors are the responsibility of the appropriate line ministries, coordinated by theDTF. If a disaster is classified as being ofnational significance, the national DTF takescontrol. If necessary, it can call upon otherGovernment authorities such as the military toassist with relief operations.

Provincial/Regional Structure

The national structure of the Ministry of theInterior is mirrored at provincial level. TheGovernor General and his heads of departmentcomprise the provincial DTF, which coordinatesdisaster response and relief from within theprovince, as well as other aid entering it. Themain activities of the post-disasterreconstruction programmes as well as thefunding for them are also controlled at this level.If the magnitude of a disaster is sufficientlylarge, there is a formal arrangement forneighboring provinces to respond to assist anaffected area. As soon as a disaster is notified,the neighboring areas are obliged to respond.

Local (District) Structure

Each district in I.R. of Iran is headed by agovernor, who reports to the Governor Generalof the province and has a number of sub-district governors. The district-level DTFs have akey role in managing the immediate search and rescue operation and the relief phase whichfollows. The governors play a key motivating role, mobilizing resources both within andfrom outside respective districts, as required.

The Red Crescent Society of the I.R. of Iran (RCSI)

RCSI is one of the main implementers who carry out the relief work to provide assistance tothe affected population. It is organized in a structure similar to the DTF, with national,regional and local representation.

b. National Emergency Relief and Budgetary Provisions

General

For the current drought crisis, the Government has concentrated its efforts on providing watertankers and domestic water purifiers to meet the immediate needs of people and livestock.


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Helping the Nomadic PopulationIn Fars province’s Dasht Bakan,, Government’nomad settlement initiative has provided farmsand rangeland to nomadic tribes. Members ofextended tribal families receive 10 hectares offarmland and the required pasture to raisecrops and livestock. It follows a communityparticipation model allowing tribalcommunities to use their own resources undera long-term loan with low interest rates (4%).The community is responsible to develop andmaintain the land and pasture whilecontrolling land use. Nomadic cooperativesfacilitate the purchase of required seeds andlivestock as well as fortify the sales of thecrops and livestock buy-back. The programmeis well received by many of the drought-affected nomads in the Fars province whohave joined the settlement. Setting up similarsettlement schemes nationwide, as bestpractices could support the Government’smedium and long-term strategy to address theneeds of the nomadic population.

There are also provisions of emergency food supplies for the most seriously affectedpopulations, especially the nomads. Emergency fodder supplies for livestock, as well as theGovernment’s procurement programmes to minimize livestock losses are among the otherrelief measures taken. The Government has also approved a US$ 290 million emergency aidpackage, which will be delivered primarily in the form of loans and grants. However, it maytake some time for such loans/grants to reach the intended populations.

Health

While the health sector is strengthening its water quality surveillance programme in badlyaffected provinces, there is still a need for additional effort to ensure the safety of drinkingwater. Particularly, where the community relies on rainwater collection and cisterns fordrinking water supply, there is a greater need for water quality surveillance.

The MOHME has established an emergency drought committee for all health-related aspectsof the drought in all provinces. They have provided special training for the health staff. Suchtraining programmes have to be strengthenedand more systematic for nationwide application.

The health sector, as a part of its expanded andeffective primary health system, is diligent in itsefforts to detect any cases of communicablediseases particularly Cholera (Eltor). Greaterattention to drought-related diseases willstrengthen the current remedial actions taken bythe health authorities to improve the diseasecontrol programmes.

Water Supply

Due to water shortages caused by the drought,there are pressure disturbances in the urbanwater supply system leaving some areas withoutwater. As an immediate remedial measure,urban water supply authorities have devisedmany engineering and system managementtechniques to ensure equitable water distributionto as many areas within each city as possible.Other measures including water rationing duringthe day and storing during the night. Repairinglinkages in fixtures have been also adopted.Many new wells have been drilled and the existing wells have been deepened. The traditionalQanat water structures have been repaired or augmented and more water is being pumpedfrom the rivers. Water intakes from rivers are shifted to other sections of the river to maintainwater quality. Greater reliance on use of mobile and stationary water tankers is another majoremergency response for water distribution in both urban and rural areas.

Resettlement of Nomadic Population

The local authorities are encouraging some nomadic populations to be resettled in areascloser to major roads. Such temporary settlements greatly facilitate provision of water andother essential items required by the drought-affected nomadic population. However, takinginto account traditional nomadic lifestyle, customs, practices and other ethnic differences,while quite effective, such resettlement programmes can be carried out only on a limited


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Sistan-BaluchestanSistan-Baluchestan is among the worst hitprovinces by this year’s drought. It is facing anexceptional water crisis. The Sistan regiondepends mostly on external sources for its watersupply, mainly originating in Afghanistan.Hirmand, the only major river, has beencompletely dry for the past five months. As forthe southern part of the province, located alongthe coastal strip, the bulk of the water comesform seasonal rainfall. Based on the Ministry ofEnergy sources, there has been almost no rainfor the last 30 months.

scale. Greater sustainable incentives have to be introduced using community-basedparticipatory approaches.

Livestock

The Government has responded to the effect of the drought on livestock through:

• Buyback schemes for drought affected sheep and goats to a maximum of two millionanimals nation-wide. A total of 1.2 million animals have been purchased and killed, orfattened and slaughtered for meat production to date at a total cost of 250-300 billionRials (US$30.5 – 36. million). In combination with private purchase and slaughter, thereis a removal programme. Under this programme, it is expected that five million animalswill be removed from the national flock.

• Provision of emergency feed. The Government normally imports 600,000 tons of grainfor livestock support, in addition to local production, and has approved an additional300,000 tons as immediate drought support. Between 250 and 300,000 tons have alreadybeen distributed and a further 300,000 tons are on order. The domestic emergencydrought requirements are in the order of one million tons for 1999/2000, leaving ademand shortfall of about 700,000 tons. The Government has not yet allocated funds forthe grain, which has been arranged and financed by the Livestock Support Unit of theMinistry of Jihad.

• Provision of drinking water by tankers to remote livestock areas.

• Provision of loans to livestock raisers giving them an opportunity to defer paybacks. Inaddition, small loans at subsidized interest rates (10%) are provided through localMinistry of Jihad offices to some livestock raisers. At the time of the mission, the loanswere for one year to a to a ceiling of US$ 1,000.

• Provision of veterinary medicines and vaccines, acaracides for tick infestation and otherinsecticides for external parasites.

• Livestock-Rangeland balancing initiatives and greater nomadic resettlement programmesto minimize overuse of pasture.

IV. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTBased on official sources, the losses caused by the drought to date are estimated at $1.7billion. Annex I provides the breakdown of damages. The Government reports and earlieranalyses indicate that in the 18 affected provinces:

• Some 37 million people, or more than 50% of the population, are affected by the droughtto varying degrees.

• 60% of the rural population in the farming andlivestock-rearing sectors may be forced to move tocities;

• 10 million people urban and rural areas areexperiencing a shortage of potable water;

• Agricultural losses of 2.8 million tons in wheatand 280,000 tons in barley, with an attendant lossof stubble as fodder resources;


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• Areas normally sown to alfalfa for hay used by returning nomadic stock are now almostnonexistent;

• Crops in 8.4 million hectares of orchards and irrigated and non-irrigated farms have beenlost;

• 9.6 million hectares of forests, woodlands are endangered;• 20% of the livestock population—65% of which is nomadic livestock—have either died

or had to be slaughtered.

The vicious circle of disruption of economic activities, curtailment of the livelihood,malnutrition and increases of the risk of water borne diseases contribute to a scenario ofa critical human suffering unless urgent preventive and remedial actions are taken.Despite the I.R. of Iran’s exemplary primary health care system, disruption of agriculture,livestock farming, severe water shortage and consequent deterioration of sanitation impedehuman development.

The economic burden of drought on the drinking water supply sector is huge. As water is notflowing through water supply networks a considerable investment is not utilized. In the meantime, as the urgency for normal maintenance is not present, the systems rapidly fall into astate of disrepair. In addition to these, the cost of supplying water with tankers willcontinuously escalate. Since hauling water with tankers is a very costly operation and as itsfinancial burdens rapidly grow, a huge resource from scarce development budget is divertedto emergency operation. The cost increase of such magnitude cannot be borne by the peopleand the Government is not in a position to subsidize indefinitely.

As water shortage will worsen, further affecting agriculture and livestock production andmore severely impacting on some of the most vulnerable segments of the population. Peoplein rural areas without adequate water for agriculture and livestock or without alternativemeans of income due to lose of livestock or crops will be forced to move to cities and createsocial, economic and environmental problems in urban areas. Drinking water shortage is oneof the main causes of migration, especially for the poor, as they cannot afford paying for thewater.

V. EMERGENCY NEEDS

a. Drinking water

Provision of drinking water is the highest priority. Based on the requirements of the threeprovinces visited by the mission, rough estimates suggest that only for these three provinces aminimum of 500 more mobile water tankers are urgently needed. Estimates for the countryput the figure at 10,000 as the minimum.

Heavy-duty, large plastic water containers mounted on ordinary trucks might be used forwater delivery. These containers are urgently needed. It might also be useful to investigatethe possibility of manufacturing them in the country. It is evident that a considerable numberof pumps, motors, chlorinators, and pipes are required in addition to those provided so far bythe Government. There is also a need for the development banks or multi/bilateral donors to

The persisting and intensifying drought is placing an extreme strain on water sources, livestockand agriculture in the country, leading to rural-urban population migration and exacerbating thealready critical unemployment situation in cities. Ultimately, the drought situation is causing agreater hardship of the affected population and human suffering.


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grant an emergency line of credit to finance drought mitigation efforts of the provincialauthorities.

b. Livestock and Agriculture

Livestock

Immediate supply of up to one million tons of feed grain for daily maintenance rations of 150grams of uncrushed barley per head. This figure assumes a target ruminant population of 40million sheep and a six-month emergency-feeding regime. The shortfall between the totalGovernment allocation and the immediate needs of livestock in the drought-affectedprovinces is in the order of 700,000 tons; distribution of grains through the provincialcooperative chapters and female breeding goats and sheep targeted; introduction of a subsidyon feed grain and fodder for the duration of the present crisis; provision of additionalveterinary medications, mineral mixes and multivitamins; water tankers for urgent supply anddistribution of livestock water; relaxation or extension of existing short-term, livestock-related loans, for small holders; provision of short-term loans at subsidized interest rates ofinterest and a minimum term of two years to cover household sustenance and purchase ofemergency livestock feed.

Agriculture

The short-term agricultural needs include drought resistant planting materials for wheat andbarley, enabling farmers to plant immediately when the rains break.

Chapter VII provides a list of urgently needed items for emergency relief.

VI. MEDIUM AND LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE: NATIONAL POLICY,STRATEGY & ACTION TO COPE WITH DROUGHT

a. Hydrologic and Water Resources

A logical response to the climatic situation in Iran is to construct water reservoirs to collectwater in winter and release it when it is most needed by farmers. Larger reservoirs can keepwater for some years as well as producing electricity. In Iran in 1994, a total of 27 largerstorage reservoirs were in operation with a total regulation capacity of 39.2 cubic km. At thattime, 24 other reservoirs were under construction with a design regulation capacity of 11.5cubic km. These reservoirs were to have a double function – irrigation and urban watersupply. In many of the rural areas, surface runoff is captured and stored in artificialdepressions or cisterns. In normal years, these cisterns will contain water during the entire dryseason.

The ingenious traditional Qanat water system is the ideal way to access the groundwater thatis the other main source of water in Iran. Using wells that are connected by canals, theQanats bring water from the foothills to the plane for irrigation and drinking. At presentmany wells are still functioning and with appropriate expansions of the Qanats greaterground water could be accessed if there is good winter precipitation.

A large part of the rainwater in small and large desert depressions is lost to evaporation,while many groundwater sources in arid and semi-arid areas are saline or at least brackish.This limits their use, particularly in relatively flat areas. However, if there is sufficientprecipitation at the end of the winter and spring, the soil will still be humid when the warmseason starts and can support fodder crops or wheat and other food crops.


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Arid and semi-arid areas like those in Iran are characterized by low average rainfall (below250 or 300 mm a year), but even more by a very high variation in annual figures. Thisvariability occurs both on the short and long term and means that it is not uncommon thatthere are series of years with much less than average precipitation.

The hydrological knowledge and hydro-geology of the country is well studied anddocumented by the Iranian meteorologists and hydrologists. As technically defined byUNESCO/WMO glossary of hydrology drought refers to a period of abnormally dry weathersufficiently prolonged for the lack of precipitation to cause a serious hydrological imbalance.

The general hydrological situation in Iran is such that there is indeed a serious hydrologicalimbalance due to a long period of insufficient precipitation. However, is this year’s drought2000 abnormal? Based on reliable data, Iran had its lowest rainfall in 32 years. Consideringother factors such as lack of fodder, major reduction of agricultural production and seriousdrinking water shortages, it is certainly a long dry period with significant consequences. Infact, Iran is affected by an extreme case of drought.

Recurrence of Drought

How unusual is the situation? Drought should be considered as a recurring phenomenon inthe arid and semi-arid climates like in Iran. There will be always dry periods covering severalconsecutive years. These periods are often so long that the normal reserve strategies in therural areas break down unless the people move out of the area. Short-term migration might bethe only practical solution, which was used in the past but might appear abnormal now.However, when the drought period is over, the ecology of the area, in particular the pasturesthat had time to recover will be restored encouraging the people to return. In particular, forthe nomadic population, this seems to be the only feasible solution. Therefore, it is suggestedthat the recurring phenomenon of drought has to be accepted as part of the normal life incountries such as Iran.

The way to address this recurring phenomenon is to build much more water reserves tominimize migration. Also, drought mitigation strategies should be introduced for droughts ofsmaller magnitudes, say those that recur every 5 years. The local population can more easilyminimize the adverse effect of such droughts. However, for a severe drought such as thepresent one, the Government together with the international community will have to join theirefforts to avoid or mitigate the crisis.

Forecasting and Prediction

In the prevailing climate and, in particular, in arid and semi-arid regions like Iran, theprecipitation occurs in winter. By the end of winter season in mid-April, a reliable predictionof a potential drought situation for a given year can be made and the Government can decideon its mitigation programmes with a great degree of confidence.

At the end of last winter, the figures for accumulated rainfall since November 1999established a basis for comparative statistical situation analysis with prior years. Of course,the later the analysis, the greater will be the reliability of the forecast. The predictions shouldnot be made earlier than February in any given year since they will not be reliable. However,due to climatic complexities, the prediction of the exact magnitude of the drought situation isnot possible, as was the case this year.

While regional forecasts that are based on long-range global climatic models are not yetoperational, climatic driving forces and relationships are becoming clearer every year. Itseems appropriate for Iranian meteorologists and hydrologists to further strengthen theirclimatic data exchange programme with other countries in the region, to enhance research for


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regional forecasting. Also, adaptation and testing of global meteorological models tominimize uncertainties could improve future forecasting and prediction. Such measureswould be highly useful in early warning signals to prepare for emergency relief.

Water Management Improvement as a Tool to Mitigate Drought

In Iran, the irrigation efficiency is generally estimated at 30%. If this figure is correct, itmeans that much more can be produced with the present water resources. Also, suchestimates imply that there is no real water shortage but that it is mismanaged. It may alsomean that if adequate water management programmes are implemented water reserves to beused for drinking, fodder and food production could be provided to sufficiently address thedroughts.

Improved water management programmes will only alleviate the consequences of droughts ifthey are used to increase water reserves. Other types of reserves such as those for food orfodder could be included under such programmes. If the improved water management is usedfor increasing agricultural production alone, as it seems to have been the case in Iran, therewill be even a greater vulnerability to drought. As with increased production, there is a higherdemand for water and greater possibility of overuse of land and pasture and thus a greaterchance for drought.

The other practical strategy is to drastically reduce water use as soon as a drought situation isidentified. In the case of Iran, once around mid-April a drought, irrespective of its magnitude,is predicted, irrigation of annual crops have to be prohibited in order to keep sufficientdrinking water for the people, livestock and orchards. In such a case, the farmers have to bein one way or another convinced to strictly follow the regulation. Using food in reserve andmoney could be an incentive, if considered necessary. The role of community informationdissemination systems and networking at the grassroots, particularly through village councilscould facilitate greater participation by the rural population. Many drought mitigationstrategies and responses derived at the local level and determined by the local communitiesthemselves have proven to be more effective in other countries with similar situations.

b. Drinking Water Supply

Water scarcity has entered a new phase as droughts are now considered a recurringphenomenon, though this view is not fully shared by all. At late 1950s and early 1960s theaverage per capita water available to people in Iran was approximately 6,000 of cubic meterper person per year. Before the current drought, it was 2,000 of cubic meter per person peryear. While in the last 40 years there is almost a 70% drop in per capita water consumption,the rate of water utilization has dramatically increased but the efficiency in water utilizationhas not accordingly improved.

In agriculture, for example, with exception of some horticulture, flood irrigation is still beingused. For domestic water supply system, apart from the time of severe shortage, nosystematic water saving and conservation is practiced. In industry the principle of “pollutefirst, clean later” is mostly followed, and there has not been any substantial effort for use ofclean industries and cleaner production. In the meantime the use of water by people continuesas if there is no shortage and it is business as usual.

The time has come for a critical and comprehensive action on water scarcity in relation tosustainable development. As a cross cutting issue, it should examine all sectors such asagriculture, industry, urbanization, commerce and health for better quality of life along long-term development scenarios. In such an exercise all concerned and the various stakeholders


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must be involved including people at the grassroots, professionals, scientists, officials anddecision-makers. Some key points to be considered are:

- Drinking Water Security- Water Conservation- Water-conscious Strategy- Water-conscious Attitude and Practices

Drinking Water Security implies to ensure the availability and capacity for the delivery ofadequate safe drinking water to safeguard health and quality of life. In water resourcesmanagement, the priority should be accorded to provision of safe drinking water. This incertain areas, especially where water has to be transported from one locality to another at along distance away, has many social and political ramifications. But, in view of prevailingdrought and its impact, it seems the principle of drinking water security is necessary.

Water Conservation is not something new. However, since it is not comprehensively adheredto, it is noteworthy. Water Conservation implies optimizing the use of water. In agriculturethe use of drip irrigation, spray irrigation, growing crops that do not need too much water,wastewater reuse and other water saving measures may achieve water conservation. Measuressuch as preventing wastage in water supply, using water saving fixtures, recycling andwastewater reuse in industry, preventing the pollution of water bodies, preventing soilerosion, water dams and water harvesting are part of water conservation.

Water-conscious Strategy aims at investment and development in areas that do not requiretoo much water. For example, on priority basis the investment may be allotted to thedevelopment of industries, which have cleaner production and do not need too much water ascompared to growing a crop that needs a lot of water with poor economic returns. Water-conscious Strategy should include national strategic corps, creating markets and building upskilled human resources.

Creating Water-Conscious Attitude and Practices is self explanatory and implies to raise theawareness of everyone, ordinary people, professional, planners, managers, decision makers,about the water crisis and the need to use water more judiciously.

c. Livestock and Agriculture

The Government planners would benefit from having a clear objective and programme ofconservation and regeneration for the national rangelands. This would include someconception of what the rangeland should eventually become and support over the medium tolong term. A defined objective for the rangeland would enable the Government to setdevelopment targets and make initiatives for protecting the resource and increasing itsproductivity over the long-term. In this regard, the movement of rural families to the citiesbecomes less likely if, through appropriate policy and programmes, the rangeland can bemade productive enough for livestock raisers to maintain enough animals in direct associationwith the range to provide for their long-term household security.

The Government well recognizes the value of its rangeland as a resource upon whichlivestock can be produced economically and well. However, implicit in achieving sustainedproduction from it, must be a programme of effective management, while adjusting andmaintaining the balance between livestock numbers and grazing capacity. The measurestaken by the Government to move nomads into sedentary agriculture/livestock activities thusfar are not lively to solve this problem. On the other hand, conferring traditional rangelandusers with the ownership to defined grazing areas imparts proprietary interest in, and bettermanagement of a valuable resource over which individuals formerly had no control. Such an


26

approach has considerable long-term promise and is already being piloted in a number ofareas in the country. This approach might be expanded.

There are also opportunities for the introduction of watershed management principles 5 to thesame areas, both as a means of improving fodder productivity from the range itself, as well asensuring the availability of water for a variety of purposes. National policy in respect of therangelands might incorporate the long-term development of:

- Long-term, private ownership of the rangeland- Soil conservation and watershed management

More appropriate rangeland management implies some de-stocking on the short-term. Themovement of livestock from the range to achieve this demands some nomadic householdsadopt a change in livestock raising systems. There are proven opportunities for ruminantproduction (subject to lower input costs) by relying on hand feeding rather than grazing, inalternative livestock and livestock production systems. Logically, these might be moreintensive sheep rearing and dairy production.

The Government might adopt policies which facilitate transfer of some former rangelandusers into the enterprises just described, and support them with training6 and technical inputs(breeds, information). In developing this policy, it might be useful to consider increasing theuse of feed grains from countries having a comparative advantage in grain production. As anagricultural issue, the reallocation of marginal rain-fed agricultural land from cereals mightallow Iran to develop a comparative advantage in horticultural (cashews, pistachios, dates,stone fruit) or other agricultural products. Medium term credit packages enabling livestockraisers or agriculturists to adopt alternative systems may prove essential for such a switch inproduction.

Agriculture

Some medium to long-term policy strategies could include:

• Improved efficiency of water use in the irrigation of cereal crops upon which livestockdepend, in part, by charging for irrigation water, and use of better varieties;

• Subject to continuation of a policy of reliance on domestic production, increasing theoverall production of cereals and fodder crops;

• Measure production of all agricultural products, not in terms of production per unit ofarea, but in terms of water volume and cost;

• Increased use of treated sewage water for irrigation.

VII. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

a. Conclusions

The present drought in the I.R. of Iran is a disastrous combination of an unprecedented twoconsecutive years of drought – a severe drought in 1999 followed by an extreme drought in2000. It is seriously affecting 18 of the country’s 28 provinces, mostly in southern, eastern 5 Abkhandary – a pilot project of effective watershed management has already been established anddemonstrated on over one thousand hectares in Fars province.6 For example, the Dairy Training Centre in Yazd Province which is owned jointly by the Ministry of Jihad andthe local Dairy Farmers Cooperative, might be supported in providing sheep production courses to farmers, inaddition to its regular dairy training programme.


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and central areas. According to some estimates, all but 3 northern provinces now have ashortage of drinking water.

Some 37 million people or more than 50 % of the population are affected by the drought tovarying degrees. The situation may worsen in the months to come, as summer temperaturescontinue to rise and rains are not expected until November.

If immediate mitigation measures are not taken, the situation could become a disaster in themonths to come. The central, provincial and local authorities have identified drinking wateras the most urgent priority as some 10 million people in rural and urban areas are affected bya severe water shortage. Also, the drought has seriously damaged the numbers andproductivity of livestock and the situation will worsen until early in 2001 even with theadvent of normal rain in November.

Government estimates suggest that over 800,000 sheep and goats have died or had to beslaughtered. This accounts for 20% of the livestock population, 65% of which is nomadiclivestock. Individual flocks have disappeared entirely in some districts. As a whole, thelivestock sector is and will continue to be affected more profoundly by the drought than theimmediate figures of mortality suggest. The loss of breeding animals, both from individualflocks as well as the national inventory, will be felt for several years after the drought is over.

While the adverse impact of drought on the agricultural sector is more on the long-term, thedrought has decreased both the rain-fed and irrigated crop production. For instance, wheatand barley plantings for the year were 4.9 million and 1.5 million hectares (80% and 75% ofthe previous year’s areas), while production was down by 2.8 million and 280,000 tonsrespectively. Areas normally sown to alfalfa for hay used by returning nomadic stock are nowalmost nonexistent. With neither agriculture nor livestock to support them, the nomadichouseholds, as the most vulnerable segment of the population, are in grave difficulty facingan uncertain future.

The drought is producing a spectrum of serious negative impact and taking a tremendous tollon human and natural environment. The most significant negative effect on the humanenvironment is increased air pollution.

The elements most damaged in the natural environment are the fresh water ecosystems andhabitats, wetlands, vegetation and biodiversity with adverse effects on protected areas. Lowerlevels of oxygen are putting fish at risk in the water domains that still exist. Habitats aredisappearing and the aquatic life forming part of the ecosystems have disappeared or areunder extreme stress due to the loss of habitat. Many lakes and wetlands such as Bakhtegan-Nairiz, Hamoon-e-Saberi, the Southern part of the Hamoon-e-puzak and the Gavkhouni havecompletely dried up. As estimated 9.6 million hectares of forest and woodlands areendangered, while important afforestation programmes and projects to combat desertificationare at risk. Due to diminished vegetation cover, serious floods could be expected in severalregions next spring.

Trans-boundary migration of population and movements of livestock have increased. Withfurther deterioration of the present situation, increased movements of drought –affectedpopulations, particularly from Afghanistan, may cross the I.R. of Iranian borders. Thesedisplaced Afghan villagers are considered as drought victims and not refugees. This is amatter of serious concern for the I.R. of Iranian authorities, a number of UN agencies, and theinternational community at large.

The Government has responded to the drought with great effort. The institutional set-up tocope with the immediate and longer-term needs is in place. Central, provincial and localauthorities of the Ministry of Interior and other relevant line ministries are providing


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emergency relief items to the drought-affected people to the extent possible. The Governmenthas concentrated its efforts on providing water tankers, domestic water purifiers, foodsupplies and fodder to meet the immediate needs of people and livestock. It has approved aUS$ 290 million emergency aid package, which will be delivered primarily in the form ofloans and grants. However, it may take some time for such loans/grants to reach thepopulation intended.

The enormous scope of the drought disaster is overwhelming the Government’s capabilitiesand resources. A number of unmet needs and response gaps require urgent assistance for theinternational community.

b. Recommendations for Emergency Relief

National Actions

Health and drinking water

• The shortage of drinking water supply is the most severe impact of the drought andshould receive the highest priority to mitigate the drought situation. In addition to whatthe international community can provide, the supply of mobile and stationary watertankers from Government resources should also receive the highest priority. Details onother priority items such as pumps, motors, chlorinators, and pipes have to be providedsoonest.

• The health sector should monitor the occurrence diseases regularly and have an activerole in the drought task force. The safety of water supply through strict monitoring ofwater disinfection has to be the highest priority of the health workers in the field,especially for the cisterns. This is especially of high importance in the under privilegedand remote areas of the drought affected provinces.

• All emergency drugs and medical supplies should be accessible in the drought-affectedareas. These include ORS, antibiotics, different vials and also laboratory diagnostic kitsand materials. All technical health experts and staff should be prepared for the probableoutbreaks.

• It will be necessary to have a public education and awareness raising campaign on safedrinking water, including the distribution of chlorine to the families and give them anorientation on safe access to water.

Livestock

The distribution of grain barley presently on order for importation to I.R. of Iran should beexpedited. The Government should also offer grant assistance providing immediate andmedium term loans to drought-affected livestock raisers and it should facilitate the provisionof water for livestock as matters of urgency.

International Assistance

The mission recommends donor countries and organizations to provide immediate assistanceto mitigate the effects of the disaster on the people most seriously affected in the I.R. of Iran.As in any other disaster, international assistance is not a substitute for the Government’sresponsibilities, but would supplement their efforts in the most critical areas. Assistance isrequired in the following areas:


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Drinking Water

The greatest need of the people in the affected provinces is potable water. The magnitude ofthe drinking water crisis is such that urgent donor response in support of the Government’sefforts is immediately required.

Priority Needs

• A total of 10,000 mobile water tankers are required to deliver drinking water for rural,urban and nomadic population, as well as for livestock. International assistance isrequested to supply a minimum of 1,000 tankers with a capacity of 18-24 thousand litres.

• 10,000 stationary tankers (e.g. plastic) of 5-10 thousand litres capacity.

• 750 km of ductile iron, Glass Reinforced Plastic (GRP), Heavy Duty Polyethylene (HDP),and PVC pipes for urban water supplies.

• 1,800 km of HDP pipes for rural water supplies.

• 2,000 chlorinators.

• 10 tons raw material and resin to produce HDP and GRP

• 100 chlorination gas cylinders.

• 300 submersible electric pumps with the capacity of 40-100 litres per second andpumping head of 100-150 meters.

• 400 submersible electric pumps with the capacity of 5-20 litres per second and pumpinghead of 50-100 meters.

• 150 ultrasonic well water meters.

• 100 leak detection instruments and accessories.

• Chlorine powder, aluminum sulphide, ferric chloride, poly chlorite.

• 5 percussion well drilling machines.

• 150 water analysis kits (chemical and biological).

• 50 water bottling and packing units.

• Experts/consultants on water quality management and hydrology.

Livestock/Agriculture

The second greatest need of the drought-affected population is livestock and agriculturesupport.

Priority Needs

• Water tankers (up to 400 units. A minimum of 180 units for immediate assistance on thebasis of an average of ten units for each affected province for provision of livestockwater).

• 28 tons of multivitamin and mineral feed supplements on the basis of an allocation of twotons per province. The Veterinary Organization will provide specifications for these andthe veterinary items (see below). The Ministry of Jihad will have responsibility forreceipting them on arrival and arranging their distribution through its provincialveterinary organizations, thence through the livestock raisers cooperatives.


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• Up to one million tons of grain barley to be assigned to the worst affected provinces anddistributed through the cooperatives and under the administration of the Ministry of Jihadin proportion to the affected livestock units in each province.

• Veterinary supplies - preventive medicines (antibiotics and vaccines – 5 million doses ofFMD vaccine), filaricides against TBD, and 60 tons of livestock insecticide andacaracides (Cyclometrine/Asuntol) for external parasite control.

• Grant assistance to provide medium term loans to drought-affected livestock raisers.

• Up to 1,500 electric pumps ranging from 3-185kw for provision of water for agriculturalholdings.

• 100 electro-diesel pumps.

Health

For prevention of diseases the Government has supplied the necessary drugs, pesticides anddiagnostic kits already as part of their routine operation. The Ministry of Health needs toconstitute emergency stockpiles of the following supplies in case of a communicable diseaseoutbreak.

• The diagnostic laboratory kits for Tuberculoses, Cholera, Measles, Meningitis, Typhoid,Dysentery, Salmonelosis and Parasitic diseases;

• ORS powder, IVFs;

• Hypersonic Glucose Vial, Potassium Chloride and Bicarbonate Vials;

• Pesticides and poisons for vector control;

• Drugs, including: Tetracycline, Doxycycline, Ciprefloxacin, TMP-SMX, Erythromicin,Furazolidone, Chloramphenicol, Ampicilin, Ceftriaxone, Cefotaxine, Ceftizoxime,Metronidazole, Iodoquinol, Diloxanidefurlate, Parmomycin, Penicillin, Diloxanidefurlate,Parmomycin, Penicillin G, Gentamycin, Chloroquine, Primaquine, Quinine, Quinidine,Permethrine, (5%, 1%), Lindane, Malathione (0.5%), Ophthalmic Ointment Tetracycline,Clootimazole cream, Miconazole cream, Immune Globulin, Vitamin A Preparation,Botulism trivalent equine antitoxin.

Donors can make their contributions directly to the Iranian Government or to relevant UNagencies (Annex VI). The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) isprepared to serve as a channel for unearmarked contributions to be used for reliefassistance. These will then be allocated in consultation with the Government of Iran andrelevant organizations in the United Nations system. Funds should be transferred to OCHAaccount No. CO-590.160.0, Swift code: UBSWCHZ12A at the UBS AG, P.O. Box 2770, CH-1211 Geneva 2, with reference: OCHA - Iran - Drought. OCHA provides donors with writtenconfirmation and pertinent details concerning the utilization of the funds contributed. Forcoordination purposes, donors are requested to inform OCHA Geneva of bilateral reliefmissions/pledges/contributions and their corresponding values by item.

In order to expedite delivery, purchase of available items locally is recommended.

Constraints

The greatest constraint is time. To be effective, international assistance should be providedpractically immediately.


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c. Recommendations on Medium and Long-term Strategy

National and International Actions

Water Management

An appropriate strategy providing a durable and sustainable solution is recommended tominimize the impact of the drought. Such a strategy could be developed and implementedthrough international technical cooperation and assistance.

• There is an increasing need to exchange information and know-how and become familiarwith the experiences of other countries in preparing for droughts, assessing droughtdamage and mitigating its consequences. A 10-day workshop is proposed in whichspecialists from selected countries exchange information on drought management withtheir counterparts in I.R. of Iran. The workshop will facilitate identification of practicalmeasures for drought preparation and mitigation.

• It is important that the detailed information on the present drought is compiled for each ofthe affected regions inclusive of rural and urban areas. Such information would enablethe Government to establish a computerized drought information database. The nationalDrought Committee at the central level together with drought committees at the provincialand local levels should be the focal points to gather the required information and establish adata bank for national use. This information is essential for the preparation of strategiesfor the mitigation of drought in future. It is proposed that a special unit within theDrought Committee is established with responsibility for collecting and updatinginformation on the present drought and its related consequences.

• The drought situation provides an excellent opportunity to evaluate the national watersupply programme. A rapid evaluation procedure for national water supply and sanitation inrelation to drought needs to be prepared by the relevant ministries including the Ministry ofEnergy, Jihad and MOHME. The evaluation process can examine current policies,strategies, management, administration, design standards, planning norms, technicalprocedures, material, skilled human resources, etc. Help can be sought from theinternational community for the development of this rapid evaluation. As an outcome ofsuch a rapid evaluation, individual action plans along with listing of the areas of needscould be identified at the central, provincial and local levels and relevant programmes couldbe formulated accordingly.

• A Forum on Water, Drought and Sustainable Development needs to be prepared jointlyby the Ministries of Interior, Energy, Jihad, Agriculture and MOHME. It is suggested thata technical advisory committee assists the forum. It is recommended that theinternational community is approached to financially support the Forum. The Forumshould prepare a comprehensive action document on:

- Drinking Water Security- Water Conservation- Water-conscious Development- Creating a Water-conscious Attitude

Prediction and Forecasting

By April of each year, the development and location of a possible drought situation can bepredicted. At such time, the national, regional and local authorities can decide on waterrestrictions to be applied to minimize future impact.


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Establishment of a regional research and training centre for climatic forecasting of droughtsand floods is proposed. The existing Meteorological Centre in Mashad could be a goodvenue for this purpose.

Preparation of a drought Mitigation Plan to address both short-term and medium-term issuesis proposed. For this purpose, all stakeholders, both governmental and non-governmental atvarious levels, should be fully involved and proactively participate in its preparation andimplementation. Some considerations for the Plan are highlighted below:

- A comprehensive list of potential emergency and relief items is required;- Regional drought vulnerability maps;- Emergency measures to be taken in any given drought situation with emphasis on

possible short-term and long-term scenarios;- A Water Vision for I.R. of Iran with established targets and benchmarks for the next

25-30 years in order to formulate a water-crisis programme of action;- Take into account the combination of recurrent droughts and floods;- A regulatory policy or legislation to be approved by the Parliament for nationwide

implementation of the Drought Mitigation Plan.

Health

The following actions are suggested:

• The systematic exchange of information between the Ministry of Health and MedicalEducation (MOHME) and the drought committees at the central, provincial and locallevels needs to be strengthened for regular analysis and reporting on drought relateddiseases.

• Steps need to be taken by the Ministry of Jihad and MOHME to improve water quality inwater cisterns (Berkehs), including the installation of floodwater inlets and nets andventilation ports to keep debris, flies, birds and insect away.

• The drought-affected population will be at risk for reduced food intake andcommunicable diseases. The reduced food intake will lead to protein-energy malnutritionmicronutrient deficiency, especially iron and iodine. The communicable diseases include,water borne diseases such as diarrhoeal (including cholera) and typhoid fever. TB,Malaria and problems that could result to low immunization coverage.

• To cope with these risks there is a need for more rigorous surveillance of communicablediseases and malnutrition. A more diligent effort should be made to ensure supply of safewater, maintain sanitation standards, food hygiene, and to adopt a nutrition strategy foraccess to safe nutrition. More attention to malaria and TB control is also needed.

• If there is population movement and drought-affected people are displaced, then inaddition to the above measures, attention should be given to reproductive health andsexually transmitted diseases (STD). Measles vaccination must be carefully controlledfor children under five. Lastly, mental health needs of drought-affected patients andstress-induced conditions must be considered. The strategy to cope with health problemsof the drought-affected population should include emphasis on better coordination, supplyof essential drugs, targeted public health interventions (like control of cholera, meningitis,typhoid and malaria, through vaccination and health education).

• The MOH and MED should take the lead in more vigorous water quality monitoring andcontrol.


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Relevant UN Activities in I.R. of Iran

In relation to longer-term issues, UNDP and FAOare supporting a number of projects that will combatdesertification and drought. A land and watermanagement programme in the Hable-Rud regionintegrates land use issues relating to the highlandsand river basins. It would incorporate communityrequirements in the national planning andpolicymaking process and help prepare andsubsequently implement the National Action Plan toCombat Desertification.

A number of pipeline projects are to be supported byUNDP and the Global Environmental Facility(GEF) to address the root causes of recurringdrought. A carbon sequestration initiative is plannedfor a large semi-arid area south of Mashhad,involving tree planting and offering community-based initiatives to reduce land degradation. WithUN support, UNIDO is also developing amethodology for cleaner industry in I.R. of Iran. Themethodology has so far proven to significantlyreduce the consumption of fresh water by industry.

FAO is also assisting the Ministry of Agriculture inseveral fields of agricultural production andinstitutional capacity building. It has an ongoingregional cooperation project to address localdeficiencies in identifying and controlling Foot andMouth Disease (FMD) while strengtheningcollaboration between I.R. of Iran and Turkey inrespect of FMD. Other FAO technical cooperativeprogrammes such as the construction ofgreenhouses for vegetable production andimproving water collection systems for rain-fedorchards, also address the effects of drought, butindirectly.

Livestock and Agriculture

Government planners would benefit from having a clear objective and programme ofconservation and regeneration for the national rangelands. A defined objective for therangeland would enable the Government to set development targets and make initiatives forprotecting the resource and increasing its productivity over the long-term. A programme ofeffective rangeland management adjusting and maintaining the balance between livestocknumbers and grazing capacity is needed.

Conferring traditional rangeland users withthe ownership to defined grazing areasimparts proprietary interest in, and bettermanagement of a valuable resource overwhich individuals formerly had no control.Such an approach has considerable long-term promise and is already being piloted ina number of areas in the country. Thisapproach might be expanded.

There are also opportunities for theintroduction of watershed managementprinciples such as Abkhandary to the sameareas, both as a means of improving fodderproductivity from the range itself, as well asensuring the availability of water for avariety of purposes. National policy inrespect of the rangelands might incorporatethe long-term development of:

- Long-term, private ownership of therangeland

- Soil conservation and watershedmanagement

More appropriate rangeland managementimplies some de-stocking on the short-term.The movement of livestock from the rangeto achieve this demands some nomadichouseholds adopt a change in livestockraising systems. There are provenopportunities for ruminant production(subject to lower input costs) by relying onhand feeding rather than grazing, inalternative livestock and livestockproduction systems. Logically, these mightbe more intensive sheep rearing and dairy production.

The Government might adopt policies to facilitate transfer of some former rangeland usersinto the enterprises just described, and support them with training and technical inputs(breeds, information). In developing this policy, it might be useful to consider increasing theuse of feed grains from countries having a comparative advantage in grain production. As anagricultural issue, the reallocation of marginal rain-fed agricultural land from cereals mightallow Iran to develop a comparative advantage in horticultural (cashews, pistachios, dates,


34

stone fruit) or other agricultural products. Medium term credit packages enabling livestockraisers or agriculturists to adopt alternative systems may prove essential for such a switch inproduction.

With regard to agriculture, some medium to long-term policy strategies could include:

• Improved efficiency of water use in the irrigation of cereal crops upon which livestockdepend, in part, by charging for irrigation water, and use of better varieties;

• Subject to continuation of a policy of reliance on domestic production, increasing theoverall production of cereals and fodder crops;

• Measure production of all agricultural products, not in terms of production per unit ofarea, but in terms of water volume and cost;

• Increased use of treated sewage water for irrigation.

Areas for Future UN Support

A number of UN agencies may be helpful in enhancing the efforts of national disastermanagement.

WHO may through its usual collaboration with the national health sector continue to assist inhealth assessment and identifying health priorities, formulating a plan of action, anddetermining requirements for medical supplies

WHO and other relevant international agencies such as UNESCO and UNICEF may providetechnical and/or financial support for the above Evaluation and Forum.

To assist the national meteorological and hydrological capacity building of the country WMOshould consider providing technical assistance to improve short-term and long-term drought-related forecasts. The I.R. of Iranian authorities have already requested expert support fromWMO.

FAO Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) ismandated within the UN system to constantly monitor the food supply and demand situationthroughout the world, and alert the international community of impending serious foodshortages. A follow-up to the mission would be to assist in formulation of a proposal fornational early warning systems, as a medium-term measure.

UNEP may consider possibilities to assist the Department of Environment in the developmentof procedures for rapid environmental impact assessment in drought situations. Also,proposals on wetlands, biodiversity and preservation of wildlife could be prepared andsubmitted to UNDP for potential financing under the Global Environment Facility (GEF).

Regional Co-operation

It is suggested that a regional conference is convened to address, in particular, the followingissues:

• National and regional coordination networks to reduce the effects of drought and toexchange information and know how and establish links for regional drought response aswell as develop regional plans and mitigation activities.

• While political boundaries are important in planning and responding to droughts,improving the geographical/regional effects of drought need to become better-integratedinto future drought preparedness and response.

• Cross-border livestock migration is a regular feature of rangeland use in all of the countries in theregion. Rangeland management (as well as issues of disease transfer) is an important issue for allconcerned.

united nations technical mission on the drought …

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