ulisses e. c. confalonieri roberta costa dias ulisses e. c. confalonieri roberta costa dias climate...

Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri

Roberta Costa Dias

Ulisses E. C. Confalonieri

Roberta Costa Dias

Climate Variability, Land Use and Malaria in the Amazon:

Preliminary Results from the State of Roraima, Brazil.

Climate Variability, Land Use and Malaria in the Amazon:

Preliminary Results from the State of Roraima, Brazil.

Program on Global Environmental Changes and Health

Department of Biological SciencesNational School of Public Health

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation

Program on Global Environmental Changes and Health

Department of Biological SciencesNational School of Public Health

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation

byby

Program on Global Environmental Changes and

Health

VECTOR–BORNE DISEASE INCIDENCEeg. malaria

VECTOR–BORNE DISEASE INCIDENCEeg. malaria

PRECIPITATION ANOMALYPRECIPITATION ANOMALY

VECTOR POPULATION DENSITY

VECTOR POPULATION DENSITY

CLIMATE SYSTEM

VARIABILITY

CLIMATE SYSTEM

VARIABILITY

Physical LinkagesPossible Associations

LIFE–CYCLE OF MALARIA PARASITE AND VECTORS

LIFE–CYCLE OF MALARIA PARASITE AND VECTORS

LAND USE PRACTICELAND USE PRACTICE

DEFORESTATIONDEFORESTATION

INCREASE IN MALARIA INCIDENCE

INCREASE IN MALARIA INCIDENCE

INCREASE IN MEAN TEMPERATURE

INCREASE IN MEAN TEMPERATURE

Physical LinkagesPossible Associations

Precipitation Anomaly Deforestati

on

CLIMATE

Hydrological Cycle

Forest Fires

LAND USE

PHYSICAL PARAMETERSeg. temperature; humidity

VECTOR BIOLOGYeg. reproduction; growth; longevity

MALARIA INCIDENCE

Dem

og

rap

hy

Beh

avio

ur

Dem

og

rap

hy

Beh

avio

ur

Conceptual Model for the Assessment of the Impacts of

Climate Variability on Infectious Diseases

Conceptual Model for the Assessment of the Impacts of

Climate Variability on Infectious Diseases

PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTIONS

PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTIONS

BIOLOGY OF VECTORS AND

DISEASE AGENTS

BIOLOGY OF VECTORS AND

DISEASE AGENTSVector control

Treatment of cases

PrecipitationTemperature

RunoffRelative humidity

Changes in habitatsChanges in animal

reservoirsChange in microclimates DEMOGRAPHY

BEHAVIOURINCOME

MOBILITYCULTURE

INFORMATIONOCCUPATIONINSTITUTIONS

DEMOGRAPHYBEHAVIOUR

INCOMEMOBILITYCULTURE

INFORMATIONOCCUPATIONINSTITUTIONS

HUMAN EXPOSURE

HUMAN EXPOSURE

INFECTIOUS DISEASES

INFECTIOUS DISEASES

CLIMATE VARIABILITYCLIMATE VARIABILITY

LAND COVER CHANGES

LAND COVER CHANGES

LAND USE PRACTICES

LAND USE PRACTICES

HYDRO–METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS

HYDRO–METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS

Climate System

Meteorological Variables

Precipitation

DECREASE IN MALARIA

INCREASE IN MALARIA

OUTBREAKS OF PLAGUE

OUTBREAKS OF LEPTOSPIROSIS

MOSQUITO LARVAE WASHED

AWAY

MOSQUITO BREEDING

INCREASE IN POPULATION OF RODENTS(RESERVOIR)

POOR DRAINAGE

RUNOFF

RAINFOREST

POOLS

SEMI-ARID

INCREASE IN ECOSYSTEM

PRODUCTIVITY

SEMI-ARID

POOR CARBAGE DISPOSAL

URBAN SLUMS

Mucajai

Boa Esperanca

Faz. Castelao

Mocidade

Faz. Altamira

Normandia (82014)

S. Joao do Cotingo

Faz. Bandeira Branc

S. J. Baliza

Base Alalau

Agrop. Boa Vista

Faz. Parana (Anaua)

Faz. Castanhal

S¡tio Sta. Maria

Faz. S. Jos‚

Caracarai (PCD)

Caracarai (82042)

Fe e esperanca

Faz. 3 PoderesFaz. Barauna

Terra Preta

Anau

Posto FUNAI

Missao Catrimani

Sta. Ma. Boiacu

Missao Surucucu

Faz. S. Joao

Maloca do Contao

Vila SurumuMarco BV-8

Agua Fria

Maloca Ailan

Boa Vista (82024)

Boa Vista (SBBV)Faz. PassarÆo

Col. do Taianu

Boqueirao

Tepequem

Malora do Erico

Faz. S. Lucas

Uaicas

Missao Auaris

Roraima

Roraima

Annual Precipitations in the Stations of S. M. Boiacu, Fé e

Esperança and Maloca do Contão

Annual Precipitations in the Stations of S. M. Boiacu, Fé e

Esperança and Maloca do Contão

0,0

500,0

1000,0

1500,0

2000,0

2500,0

3000,0

3500,0 Boiacu

Fe Esperança

Maloca Contao

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Boqueirão

Faz. S. João

Precipitação Pluviométrica nas Estações Boqueirão e Faz. São João,

1985–1990


1985–1990

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan

/90

Ma

i/90

Se

t/90

Jan

/91

Ma

i/91

Se

t/91

Jan

/92

Ma

i/92

Se

t/92

Jan

/93

Ma

i/93

Se

t/93

Jan

/94

Ma

i/94

Se

t/94

Jan

/95

Ma

i/95

Se

t/95

Jan

/96

Ma

i/96

Se

t/96

Boqueirão

Faz. S. João


1990–1995


1990–1995

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan/

85

Mar

/85

Mai

/85

Jul/8

5

Set

/85

Nov

/85

Jan/

86

Mar

/86

Mai

/86

Jul/8

6

Set

/86

Nov

/86

Jan/

87

Mar

/87

Mai

/87

Jul/8

7

Set

/87

Nov

/87

Jan/

88

Mar

/88

Mai

/88

Jul/8

8

Set

/88

Nov

/88

Jan/

89

Mar

/89

Mai

/89

Jul/8

9

Set

/89

Nov

/89

Jan/

90

Mar

/90

Mai

/90

Jul/9

0

Set

/90

Nov

/90

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700Surucucu Fé e Esperança

Precipitação Pluviométrica nas Estações de Surucucu e Fé e

Esperança, 1985–1990

Precipitação Pluviométrica nas Estações de Surucucu e Fé e

Esperança, 1985–1990

Precipitação Pluviométrica nas Estações Boqueirão e SOI, 1980–1985


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan/8

0Ab

r/80

Jul/8

0Ou

t/80

Jan/8

1Ab

r/81

Jul/8

1Ou

t/81

Jan/8

2Ab

r/82

Jul/8

2Ou

t/82

Jan/8

3Ab

r/83

Jul/8

3Ou

t/83

Jan/8

4Ab

r/84

Jul/8

4Ou

t/84

Jan/8

5Ab

r/85

Jul/8

5Ou

t/85

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4 Boqueirão

SOI



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan/

85Ab

r/85

Jul/8

5O

ut/8

5Ja

n/86

Abr/8

6Ju

l/86

Out

/86

Jan/

87Ab

r/87

Jul/8

7O

ut/8

7Ja

n/88

Abr/8

8Ju

l/88

Out

/88

Jan/

89Ab

r/89

Jul/8

9O

ut/8

9Ja

n/90

Abr/9

0Ju

l/90

Out

/90

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4 Boqueirão

SOI

Methodology (I)Methodology (I)

I – Malaria Rate per Month for Each Municipality:I – Malaria Rate per Month for Each Municipality: 2 municipalities up to 1983

8 municipalities from 1984 to 1996 15 municipalities after 1996

2 municipalities up to 1983 8 municipalities from 1984 to 1996 15 municipalities after 1996

II – Precipitation Data from 51 Rain Gauge Stations:II – Precipitation Data from 51 Rain Gauge Stations: 15 with reliable data from 1980

onwards 15 with reliable data from 1980 onwards

Methodology (II)

Methodology (II)

To compare ENSO indices (SOI; SST3) with malaria incidence at state and municipal level.

To compare ENSO indices (SOI; SST3) with malaria incidence at state and municipal level.

To compare rainfall intensity and duration with malaria incidence (measured by IPA) for every municipality.

To compare rainfall intensity and duration with malaria incidence (measured by IPA) for every municipality.

1980

9,74

18,66

12,09

14,79

13,69

7,56 7,85

10,08

17,56

15,26

21,48

10,17

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

1981

14,1212,02 11,59

7,39

8,83

6,63

10,58

11,34

18,02

11,03

10,29 9,52

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

1983

9,44

10,40 10,30

7,45

12,35 12,67

11,22

14,73

9,82

14,77 16,77

21,49

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

1982

20,43

16,96

26,87

16,66

16,1714,76

8,90

8,27

8,67

7,78

8,72

9,17

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

Annual Parasite Index for the State of Roraima – 1980–1998Annual Parasite Index for the State of Roraima – 1980–1998

1991

13,3312,87 11,96

9,86 9,10

7,54 7,56

11,21

11,16

7,767,958,88

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00

1990

11,368,80

17,25

13,14

13,01

12,72

9,78

10,67

6,70

7,03

8,09

11,40

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

1989

12,3212,17

6,509,08

15,63

10,91

9,26

6,73

7,92

7,809,58

10,66

0,002,004,006,008,00

10,0012,0014,0016,0018,00

1988

7,617,53

13,24

8,259,97

9,03

4,665,61

4,05

4,95

5,05

10,67

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00


1992

14,53

7,86

9,16

6,28

9,22

6,49

10,12

8,848,55

10,24

7,939,00

0,002,004,006,008,00

10,0012,0014,0016,00

1993

4,224,02

5,73 6,05

4,20

5,56

6,79

6,99

7,26

5,84

7,56 7,48

0,001,002,003,004,005,006,007,008,00

1994

10,81

9,768,51

5,48 5,81

10,25

9,69

14,98

6,15

7,10

5,38

13,29

0,002,004,006,008,00

10,0012,0014,0016,00

1995

13,05

16,6513,33

18,40

22,09

10,18

11,24

11,57

10,93

9,71

12,7115,79

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00


1996

7,238,49 8,00

8,61

6,87

15,52

14,83

15,1315,22

11,45

20,61

13,32

0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

1997

11,35

7,63

5,76

8,30

8,34

7,367,52

5,73

7,78

7,66

13,08

9,10

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00

1998

8,53

5,15

4,33

5,53

5,476,076,70

10,39

11,72

8,156,41

4,24

0,00

2,004,00

6,00

8,00

10,0012,00

14,00


Annual Parasite Index for Calendar Year and June/May

Periods in Roraima(1980-1990)

Annual Parasite Index for Calendar Year and June/May

Periods in Roraima(1980-1990)

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989 89

/90

88/8

9

81/8

2

87/8

8

86/8

7

85/8

6

84/8

5

82/8

3

83/8

4

80/8

1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16 Calendar

June/May

IPA for Malaria and SOI in Roraima

1980 a 1985


1980 a 1985

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan/

80

Mai

/80

Set

/80

Jan/

81

Mai

/81

Set

/81

Jan/

82

Mai

/82

Set

/82

Jan/

83

Mai

/83

Set

/83

Jan/

84

Mai

/84

Set

/84

Jan/

85

Mai

/85

Set

/85

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4IPA

SOI

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan/

85

Mai

/85

Set

/85

Jan/

86

Mai

/86

Set

/86

Jan/

87

Mai

/87

Set

/87

Jan/

88

Mai

/88

Set

/88

Jan/

89

Mai

/89

Set

/89

Jan/

90

Mai

/90

Set

/90

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4 IPA

SOI


1985-1990


1985-1990

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan/

91

Jun/

91

Nov

/91

Abr

/92

Set

/92

Fev

/93

Jul/9

3

Dez

/9

Mai

/94

Out

/94

Mar

/9

Ago

/9

Jan/

96

Jun/

96

Nov

/96

Abr

/97

Set

/97

Fev

/98

Jul/9

8

Dez

/9

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4 IPA

SOI


1991-1998


1991-1998

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40Bomfim Malária em Bomfim

Malária x Precipitação em Bonfim

1985–1990

Malária x Precipitação em Bonfim

1985–1990

Malária x Precipitação em S. M. Boiacu

1985–1990

Malária x Precipitação em S. M. Boiacu

1985–1990

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Sta. Ma. Boiaçu Malária em Caracaraí

Methodology (III)

Methodology (III)

To perform a cluster analysis of rain gauge stations from historical precipitation data.

To perform a cluster analysis of rain gauge stations from historical precipitation data.

To match the precipitation data above with the dominant ecosystem in order to have specific ECOREGIONS defined.

To match the precipitation data above with the dominant ecosystem in order to have specific ECOREGIONS defined.

To analyze the malaria incidence data for each ecoregion as related to climate variation, land use/demographic events and disease control activities.

To analyze the malaria incidence data for each ecoregion as related to climate variation, land use/demographic events and disease control activities.

ConclusionsConclusions

Malaria in Roraima is an endemic disease with a seasonal pattern: the high transmission season is November through January and the low transmission period from June to August.

Malaria in Roraima is an endemic disease with a seasonal pattern: the high transmission season is November through January and the low transmission period from June to August.

Malaria incidence in RR decreases with ENSO due to the low humidity associated with the precipitation anomaly (drought).

Malaria incidence in RR decreases with ENSO due to the low humidity associated with the precipitation anomaly (drought).

ulisses e. c. confalonieri roberta costa dias ulisses e. c. confalonieri roberta costa dias climate...

Documents

roraima slide

health slide

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malaria increase

malaria incidence increase

malaria incidence data

malaria rate

conclusions malaria