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GWIT R E N D S
Explaining and analyzing key digital trends by demographics & market
MOBILE TIPPING POINTAs smartphones remain in the ascendancy, the moment is approaching when people will spend more time online on their mobiles than on all other devices combined.
Q12 0 1 6
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That consumers are spending more and more time online on their smartphones is hardly
dramatic news; for some time now, we’ve all seen internet behaviors being transformed
as a growing number of activities migrate away from desktop and laptop PCs towards
mobiles.
Even so, look at GlobalWebIndex’s harmonized, 34-market trended data on how much
time people are devoting to various devices each day and there’s one particularly striking
landmark on the horizon: by 2019, the average global internet user will be spending more
time on their mobile device each day than on their PCs, laptops and tablets combined.
It’s this moment that we’re calling the Mobile Tipping Point – and it’s one which brings
profound implications for how and when brands will communicate with consumers.
SETTINGTHE SCENE
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Device OwnershipFor the first time, late 2015 saw smartphones (87%) posting near-equal ownership figures
to PC/laptops (88%). Considering the relatively short period of time for which smartphones
have been available, that they have already drawn equal to more traditional devices underlines
just how quickly the mobile internet has transformed online behaviors.
Question: Which of the following devices do you
personally own? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex Q4 2015 /// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64
Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Internet Landscape > Access Points > Device Ownership
Device Ownership% of internet users who own the following
e-Reader: a digital reading device, e.g. Amazon Kindle, Kobo, Nook etc
Smart TV: a television that can connect to the internet
Smart Wristband: a digital wristband which typically tracks your health and fitness levels. Popular examples include Nike Fuelband, Jawbone Up, Adidas miCoach
Smartphone: a smartphone allows you to connect to the internet and download apps, e.g. an iPhone, BlackBerry or Android phone such as the Samsung Galaxy S6
Smartwatch: a watch which allows you to connect to the
internet and use apps. Popular smartwatches include Pebble, Sony Smartwatch, Samsung Galaxy Gear and the Apple Watch
Tablet: e.g. an Apple iPad, Samsung Galaxy Tab, Microsoft Surface, Google Nexus tablet
TV streaming stick/device: a digital media device which streams web content to your TV set, e.g. Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV Stick, Google Chromecast, Roku Streaming Player
NOTE: RESPONDENTS SEE THE FOLLOWING DEFINITIONS/ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES
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Broadly speaking, smartphone ownership rates by country tend to be higher in fast-
growth rather than more mature nations. Demographic patterns have a significant impact
here; in many fast-growth markets, internet penetration remains modest and online
populations are therefore more likely to be young, urban and comparatively affluent –
all of which favors higher smartphone ownership. In addition, mobiles have been more
fundamental to the development of the internet in fast-growth nations than they have in
more mature ones.
In contrast, developed markets typically have older online populations who retain a
stronger attachment to PCs and laptops (which have been widespread in these markets
for years). Even so, certain mature markets do boast high figures for smartphone ownership
– rates reach over 90% in South Korea, Spain and Singapore, for example. Moreover, there’s
no market where smartphones are failing to make a significant impact.
Meanwhile, close to half of internet users might have a tablet but their previous rates of
growth have stalled. Evidence suggests that the momentum behind tablets has waned as
they struggle to convince some users that they are must-have rather than just nice-to-have
devices. That tablet ownership is higher among 25-54s than among 16-24s is a clear sign
that the youngest demographics are still to become seriously enthused by these devices
(in contrast to mobiles, where younger demographics continue to post the strongest usage
figures). Clearly, it’s smartphones which remain the one to watch.
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DEVICE IMPORTANCE
Further evidence for the rise of mobile comes from a new addition
to our survey, asking respondents which device they believe is
most important to them for getting online.
Looking at the total internet population, laptops have a slim lead
over smartphones for this metric (34% vs 32%). However, if we
turn our attention to 16-24s, it’s clear that smartphones are by
far the most important device for this key age group. In contrast,
only 1 in 10 55-64s view smartphones in the same way.
By region, we once again see the clear importance of smartphones
to digital consumers in APAC and MENA, whereas laptops score
their highest figures in North America and Europe. So too is the
status of tablets as non-essential devices re-confirmed here.
Only 4% of online adults view tablets as their most important
device, rising to just 11% among tablet owners themselves. In
fact, tablets owners are most likely to identify smartphones as
their most important device.
% of internet users say the following is their most important internet device
Question: Which would you say is the most important device you use to access the
internet, whether at home or elsewhere? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex Q4 2015 /// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64
Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Internet Landscape > Access Points > Device Importance
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Second-ScreeningMobiles continue to break new ground when we turn our attention
to second-screening trends – having opened up a 16-point lead
over laptops.
Question: Which of the following devices have you
used while watching TV? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex
2012-2015 (averages across all waves of research
conducted in each year)/// Base: Internet Users Aged
16-64
Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Second-Screen Consumption > Second-Screen Devices
2nd Screening, by Device% who have recently second-screened via the following
Across GWI’s 34 countries, it’s now just 9 of them where laptops
remain in pole position (retaining particularly strong leads in
places such as Japan, Poland and Russia). However, with mobiles
ahead in 25 markets – with especially commanding positions in
many APAC and LatAm countries – it’s somewhat inevitable that
mobiles will soon take the lead in all places.
As might be expected, age has a strong impact here – 16-24s
lead the figures for mobiles and are almost 3 times as likely to be
second-screening via this device as 55-64s.
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TIME SPENT ONLINEWith mobiles experiencing strong rises when it comes to
ownership, to dual-screening and to perceived device importance,
it’s hardly a surprise that they’re capturing a bigger portion of
time spent online. However, it’s the speed of the increase which
is particularly arresting.
At a global level, mobiles jumped from 1.24 hours in 2012 to
break the 2-hour-per-day mark in 2015. Simultaneously, we
saw a steady decline in the amount time per day spent on PCs/
laptops. Although these changes for PCs/laptops are not drastic
– and although mobiles still have some distance to go before they
challenge the dominance of computers – the direction of travel
here is abundantly clear.
Rather than taking people away from PCs per se, though, the
bigger story here is that mobiles are encouraging people to go
online for an even longer period each day, including at times
and in locations that previously might not have been feasible
or desirable. The mobile internet isn’t replacing the PC/laptop
internet directly; rather, it’s increasing the total amount of time
we spend online.
Time Spent Online
Question: Roughly how many hours do you spend
on the following on a typical day? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex 2012-2015 (averages across all
waves of research conducted in each year) /// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64
Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Cross Media Consumption > Time Spent…
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Online Time by Age & Region
Currently, the youngest consumers in our research – the 16-24s – are already spending
an average of around 3.25 hours per day online on a mobile, representing an increase
from just under 2 hours back in 2012. Look instead at the oldest group of consumers within
our study – the 55-64s – and the picture is quite different; this group spends just 0.67
hours per day online on their mobiles. As a result, mobiles account for by far the biggest
proportion of total online time among the youngest age group; 44% is already via a mobile
and, as we explore below, 2016 will be the year that mobiles reach parity with and then
overtake computers for this age group.
Time Spent Online by Age
Question: Roughly how many hours do you spend
on the following on a typical day? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex 2012-2015 (averages across all
waves of research conducted in each year) /// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64
Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Cross Media Consumption > Time Spent…
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Among 55-64s, mobiles grab just 16% of time, meaning the
transition to mobile-first consumption will take much, much
longer. In fact, the oldest group is the only one where we’re not
seeing declines in time spent on PCs, laptops and tablets. Their
much-documented love of tablets is one of the reasons behind
this, but it does illustrate just how closely mobile consumption –
and therefore the Mobile Tipping Point – is linked to demographics.
Indeed, age-based patterns for mobiles become particularly stark
when we recognize that 16-24s spend 1.2x as much time as 55-
64s on PCs/laptops/tablets each day but devote 5x as much
time to mobile.
Differences are similarly strong at a regional level. In Latin
America, for example, the mobile web now accounts for over
3.5 hours per day, with the figure close to reaching a similar
mark in the Middle East. In contrast, daily time in North America
(1.84 hours) and Europe (1.57) lags behind. As before, this is
a combination of these two regions having older and more
nationally representative internet populations as well as a
stronger connection to PCs and laptops.
Time Spent Online by Region
Question: Roughly how many hours
do you spend on the following on a
typical day? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex
2012-2015 (averages across all waves of
research conducted in each year) /// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64
Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Cross Media Consumption > Time Spent…
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THE MOBILE TIPPING POINT
If current patterns continue without interruption, 2019
is forecast to be the year when mobiles will capture
more time than all other devices combined. The
importance of this really can’t be overstated: before
the end of the current decade, the “typical” internet
user across all of our 34 markets will be devoting more
online time to smartphones than all other devices/
screens.
Clearly, though, age will have a strong impact over this.
Look just at 16-24s and the Mobile Tipping Point will
be reached in 2016 (with 16-34s following closely
behind in 2017).
% of daily online time devoted to mobiles vs other devices
Question: Roughly how many hours do you spend
on the following on a typical day? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex Forecasts based on 2012-2015 data
/// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64
Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Cross Media Consumption > Time Spent…
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There’s similar variation at a country level, with the young populations of fast-growth
markets at the very forefront of the transition to mobile-first consumption. Leading the
pack are countries in the Middle East and Latin America. Across GWI’s 34 markets, 16-24
year-olds in places such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Mexico reached the Mobile Tipping
Point back in 2014 or early 2015. Now, the total online populations of these three markets
are set to follow suit, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE forecast to be the very first to make
the transition for their total internet populations in 2016.
Mobile Tipping Point, by CountryYear when people start spending more time online via mobiles than via all other devices combined
Question: Roughly how many hours do you spend
on the following on a typical day? /// Source: GlobalWebIndex Forecasts based on 2012-2015 data
/// Base: Internet Users Aged 16-64
Explore this data in PRO Platform /// Click here: Media Consumption > Cross Media Consumption > Time Spent…
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Elsewhere, 2020 is set to be a particularly key year. By this point, all three of the countries
with the largest internet populations in the world – the US, China and India – will have
moved past the Mobile Tipping Point. Given that these three together represent more than
half of the world’s internet users, the fact that mobiles are set to grab the majority of their
online time by the end of the decade is a hugely significant milestone. As is the fact that,
by 2020, many of the world’s top 10 biggest advertising markets will have made this
transition.
Towards the end of GWI’s 34 markets are some perhaps rather surprising stragglers,
including what most of us would think of as rather advanced tech markets like the UK,
Singapore, Germany and Sweden. Demographics are once again key here, though. If we
looked just at younger consumers in these markets, the transition will take place long
before 2020. In contrast, examine behaviors among the large numbers of older internet
users within their ageing populations and it’s clear that they remain much more attached
to traditional devices. They’re still embracing mobiles, but time spent on PCs, laptops and
tablets is not decreasing significantly and this causes an obvious delay to when they’ll
reach the Mobile Tipping Point. But that we’ll still see them reaching the Mobile Tipping
Point within the next 5 years in spite of this is yet another sign of just how much mobiles
are changing the game.
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• PCs/laptops will not be abandoned and will retain their importance for a long time to come. Nevertheless, as
mobiles continue to grab a larger share of the time that people spend online, the importance of mobile-optimized
content and strategies will become more and more pressing. Multi-device ownership and access means you
need to expect consumers to be engaging with you via any device and at any time, but the role of mobile within
this mix is bound to grow.
• Equally inevitable is that we’ll see the emergence of a bigger and bigger mobile-first audience – those individuals
who, despite having access to other devices, choose smartphones as their primary internet device. Without a fully
formed mobile strategy, that means you’re completely shutting the door to this ever-growing segment.
• Currently, mobile-first groups are usually associated almost exclusively with fast-growth markets – places
where the importance of the closely-related mobile-only segment has long been recognized. Nevertheless, look
at GWI’s data and it’s clear that mobile-first audiences already exist in all 34 countries. Markets like Saudi Arabia
and the UAE might top the list, but some mature markets feature here too – with small but important groups in
places like Sweden, Hong Kong, the US and UK already eschewing other devices in favor of mobile. Clearly, this is
a trend which needs to be on the radar of marketers working in all territories.
• To date, certain internet behaviors have made a much stronger transition to smartphones than others and,
among some demographics, it’s already legitimate to count things like social networking, video and music-
streaming as mobile-first activities. That means we’re already in the position to talk about the presence of truly
global mobile publishers – and hence, the opportunity to strike global deals.
IMPLICATIONS & FUTURE OUTLOOK
For further detail on this subject, please download the following:
GWI Device | Flagship Report
Digital vs Traditional Media Consumption | Insight Report
Device Preferences | Insight Report
Multi-Device Owners | Trend Report
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Jason ManderDirector, Research & Insight
E [email protected]@thejasonmander