trends in the atlanta region and buckhead — demographics and growth seminar – 2013

Metro Atlanta and

Buckhead

Demographics and Economics

Mike Alexander, AICP

Research and Analytics Division Manager

Atlanta Regional Commission

[email protected]

First a TEST!!!

So You

Think

You

Know

the City

of

Atlanta?

Which Area Added

The Most Population,

2000-2010?

This Southwest Atlanta tract has

added the most people with 4,267.

Which Area Has The

Highest

Concentration of

Those With At Least A

Bachelor’s Degree?

91.8% of the population have at

least a Bachelor’s Degree, in this

tract of South Buckhead.

Which Area Has The

Highest

Concentration of

Children Under 5

Years Old?

This Thomasville Heights tract has

20% of the population at age 5 or

younger.

Which Area Has The

Highest

Concentration of

People Over 65

Years Old?

The highest concentration of people

over age 65 is in this Buckhead

tract, with 27.3%.

Which Area Has

The Most

Children Added

Under Age 5?

The highest number of children

under 5 added is in this Western

tract, with 386.

Which Area Has

The Most People

For Ages 65 and

Over?

This Buckhead tract has 2,150

people over age 65, the highest in

the city.

Which Area of

Atlanta Has The

Highest Median

Household Income?

Atlanta’s highest median household

is $150,631 in this Buckhead tract.

How Have

Metropolitan

Atlanta and

Buckhead Grown?

Southeastern Population

Growth 2000 to 2010

County Net Change

Red to Tan = Growth

Blues = Loss Source: US Census

Metropolitan Growth 2000 to 2010

Source : Census Bureau, 28-County MSA

Total Hispanic Black White Total Hispanic Black White

Houston 1,231,393 745,935 214,928 85,643 Tampa, FL 387,246 203,566 72,970 57,482

Dallas 1,210,229 634,449 233,890 158,283 Chicago 362,789 462,377 (58,255) (193,010)

Atlanta 1,020,879 276,993 473,493 106,267 Minneapolis 311,027 77,162 83,464 63,623

Riverside 970,030 767,440 58,919 5,613 San Diego 281,480 240,383 (7,887) (48,786)

Phoenix 941,011 418,706 80,318 320,370 Philadelphia 278,196 181,963 93,161 (140,551)

Washington 785,987 341,107 155,648 58,019 Boston 215,058 128,911 54,009 (136,692)

New York 574,107 760,983 (67,709) (558,563) San Francisco 211,651 205,545 (37,595) (185,650)

Miami 557,071 608,865 191,658 (267,991) Baltimore 157,495 72,425 74,124 (66,652)

Los Angeles 463,210 583,070 (85,025) (361,772) St. Louis 114,209 31,582 36,764 7,349

Seattle 395,931 147,023 36,061 27,015 Detroit (156,307) 41,147 (37,603) (194,535)

Metro

2000-2010 Population Change MSA

Metro

2000-2010 Population Change MSA

Buckhead Population Growth

66,772

77,787

80,465

33,930

40,313

41,564

20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000

2000

2010

2013

Households Population

Source: ESRI Demographics

Since 2010

Source: US Census Estimates

A Lot of Growth

Diversity

50.7 54.361.1

54.750.1

67.9

39.547.8

31.8 34.7

48.252.8

64.758.1

36.5

67.1

48.7

32.1

7.4

24.0

17.2

15.0

23.0

16.8

10.6

6.9

19.9

16.315.4

20.7

5.2

7.6

11.6

25.4

6.4

6.4

4.7

6.8

7.0

5.0

7.812.0

16.4

3.6

11.7 6.0

6.3

6.6

8.3

4.5 11.4

10.8

31.9

10.2

21.228.0

4.2

36.029.6

44.8 41.8

23.8 25.9

8.3

30.1

47.7

16.8 14.4

Metropolitan Ethnicity As a % of Total Population 2010 Census

Atlanta has a relatively small share of Hispanic Population compared to other metro areas.

White African American Other Hispanic

Source : Census Bureau 2010

Census

-100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Atlanta

Spalding

Rockdale

Fayette

Clayton

Walton

Barrow

Carroll

Bartow

DeKalb

Newton

Coweta

Douglas

Hall

Paulding

Cherokee

Forsyth

Cobb

Henry

Fulton

Gwinnett

White

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Other

County Race & Ethnicity Change,

2000 – 2010 (US Census)

The Buckhead Superdistrict

2013 Population by Race Comparison

11.6%

0.1%

0.3%

2.6%

5.0%

4.9%

32.4%

54.7%

7.4%

0.0%

0.2%

2.1%

3.1%

4.5%

10.6%

79.5%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%

Hispanic Origin (Any Race)

Pacific Islander Alone

American Indian Alone

Two or More Races

Some Other Race Alone

Asian Alone

Black Alone

White Alone

Buckhead Atlanta Metro


Distribution of Race-2010

More than 200,000 Gwinnett

residents were born in a

different country!Source: U.S. Census

0 5 10 15 20 25

0 - 4

5-9

10-14

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 34

35 - 44

45 - 54

55 - 64

65 - 74

75 - 84

85+

Buckhead Atlanta Metro

2013 Age Comparison


20 County Area Compared to Nation

2010 Census 20-County Area

Baby Boomers:

Born between

1944 and 1963

GI and Silent

Generation:

Born before

1944

Generation

X (BABY

BUST):

1964 to

1977

Generation Y

(ECHO,

Millennial)

1978 to 1992

Generation

Z:

1993 to 2010

-10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%

<5

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Female

Male

Nation

Where Millennials Live 2010 (AGE 15-30)

Health

Oh Yeah… Place Matters!

Source: County Health Rankings

Male Change in Life Expectancy

Source: County Health Rankings

1999 to 2009

Source: http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/

2009 Male Life Expectancy


2009 Female Life Expectancy


Death Rates: Major Cardiovascular Diseases

Source: GA Dept. of Health (OASIS)

Education

34.1

46.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Pe

rce

nt

Metropolitan Statistical Area

HS-

BAC+

20 Largest MSAs: Educational Attainment, 2010

US: Bachelor 30.9% BLUE Equals

Percent without High School Diploma

50Source: American Community Survey, 2010 1-Year

US: 30.9%

51

Source: American Community Survey 2007-2011

Educational Attainment

Buckhead (SD) 75% with Bachelor’s Degree

164 5

15 2010 7 8

17 13 11 9 14 12 196 1 3

18

2

216 18

9 18

513 3 10 12 15 6 11

7

14 1920

4

17

11 1215 7

9 510

19

48

146

313 1

17 20 162 18

15 135 8 14 17 20

1

199 2

11 166 12 10 3 4

187

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Science/Engineering Business Education Arts/Humanities

Source: 2009 American Community

SurveyNote: The American Community Survey relies on sample data to develop estimates. The figures shown are the midpoint for a range of

possible estimates at the 90 percent confidence level. Since a range of estimates is possible for each metro area, the ranks may not

be exact.

Degree Type by Metro Area

(Ranks for each degree on chart)

High School Graduation Rates

88.4

86.27

82.32

81.9

78.23

76.21

76.01

74.85

74.82

74.74

73.35

72.73

72.35

70.98

70.05

68.53

67.56

67.08

66.22

66.2

64.22

64.14

58.82

58.65

58.43

56.01

51.96

51.48

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Decatur City

Forsyth

Buford City

Carrollton City

Fayette

Cartersville City

Paulding

Coweta

Cherokee

Walton

Cobb

Hall

Henry

Douglas

Fulton

Social Circle City

Gwinnett

Carroll

Bartow

Rockdale

Barrow

Newton

Spalding

DeKalb

Gainsville City

Marietta City

Atlanta Public Schools

Clayton

Graduation Rate, 2010-2011 NEW METHOD %

54

Source: GA DoE

Socioeconomics

2013 Income Comparison

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

<$15,000

$15,000 - $24,999

$25,000 - $34,999

$35,000 - $49,999

$50,000 - $74,999

$75,000 - $99,999

$100,000 - $149,999

$150,000 - $199,000

$200,000+

Buckhead Atlanta MetroSource: ESRI Demographics

Atlanta MSA and the Nation

Source: BLS, CES SAE series

Recent Atlanta MSA Trends by Industry MAY

Source: BLS, CES,

SAE

Recent Atlanta MSA Trends by Industry August

Source: BLS, CES,

SAE

Large Metros Employment Change

Source: BLS CES SAE

Source: Zillow

Foreclosures Shifting 2007

PSQM

Source : Equity

Depot 66

Source :

Equity Depot 67


PSQM

Source : Equity

Depot

68


PSQM

Total Employment Change

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2010-2012

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2000-2010

Source: BLS, CES SAE

10-County Employment Change

-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Professional and Technical Services

Retail Trade

State and Local

Administrative and Waste Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Accommodation and Food Services

Other Services, except Public Administration

Wholesale Trade

Finance and Insurance

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Transportation and Warehousing

Construction

Manufacturing

Information

Educational Services

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Federal Civilian

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Federal Military

1990 1990to2011Source: REMI, BLS

Employment Change 2010 to 2012

Buckhead added

7,510 jobs

3rd Superdistrict in

Job Change

N Fulton and N

DeKalb 1-2

96, 471 Total Jobs

6th largest

Superdistrict

Employment Performance Comparison

3.86%

0.52%

-5.94%

-2.78%

4.44%

6.43%

-3.73%-5.51%

1.14%

8.44%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

05to2006 06to2008 08to2009 09to2010 10to2012

Metro Atlanta Buckhead

Source: ARC Estimates (GA Dept. of Labor Data)

Buckhead Prof Sc Tech job increase 2005-2012 4,161 (12%) is

22% of the total increase for the 20-County Region

Buckhead Employment Sectors (2011)

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

Public Administration

Manufacturing


Construction


Other Services (excluding Public Administration)




Information

Administration & Support, Waste Management and…

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade




Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Source: Census LEHD On the Map

Commuting Patterns to work in Buckhead

Where Residents go to

WorkWhere Workers Live

How Will We

Change?

New Census Projections

77

South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast

to grow the most.

Population Growth Comparison

United States 20-County Area Rest of Georgia

(139 Counties)

Source: Plan 2040 Forecasts, 2009

20-County Population

Trends: Draft

Forecast 2013

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

5,278

7,887

in T

housa

nds

Total Population

Average Annual %

Region’s Aging ProfileDRAFT Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Ages 0-4

Ages 5-9

Ages 10-14

Ages 15-19

Ages 20-24

Ages 25-29

Ages 30-34

Ages 35-39

Ages 40-44

Ages 45-49

Ages 50-54

Ages 55-59

Ages 60-64

Ages 65-69

Ages 70-74

Ages 75-79

Ages 80-84

Ages 85+

Age Pyramid

2010

2040

DRAFT Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)

87

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

Ages 85+

Ages 80-84

Ages 75-79

Ages 70-74

Ages 65-69

Ages 60-64

More Diverse

71%

60%

50%

47%43%

40%

25%

28%

32% 31% 31% 30%

2%4%

7% 8% 9% 9%

2%

7%

11%14%

17%

22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

White Black Other Hispanic

Source: Plan 2040 Forecasts

20-County

Forecast

Area

24% 24%20%

68% 67%

60%

8% 9%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Age 65 and Older

Age 16-64

Age 0-15

Labor Force Share Getting Smaller

1,456,824 29%

3,103,125 63%

384,991 8%

Workers and Dependents - 2005

0-19

20-64

65+

2,086,038 25%

4,559,462 55%

1,610,823 20%

Workers and Dependents - 2040

0-19

20-64

65+

Roughly 1.6 workers for every dependent today. By 2040, roughly one-to-one

Source:

Census and

ARC

Plan2040

Forecast

89

Who is

(was)

moving to

Atlanta?

County Growth

Buckhead

2040

Population

113,961

44%

Increase

20-County Employment Trends:

Draft Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

4,824

in T

ho

usa

nd

s

Total Employment

1.99%

1.28%

1.24%Average Annual % Change

20-County Employment Change by Sector:


-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800




State Government

Federal Civilian


Information




Administrative and Waste Management Services


Construction



Wholesale Trade

Local Government

Manufacturing

Retail Trade

1990 1990-2013 2013-2040

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800


Federal Civilian

Information


State Government


Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade






Local Government

Retail Trade

Construction

Administrative and Waste Management Services



1990 1990-2013 2013-2040

20-County Employment Change by Sector:


Buckhead

2040

Employme

nt 135,272

54%

Increase

Metro Atlanta and

Cobb County

Demographics and Economics

for the

Traton Homes 2013




[email protected]

THIS IS A

VIDEO MAKE

IT PLAY BY

CLICKING

Employmen

t

Blue

Served

by Heavy

Rail Transit

Urbanized Area 1950 to

2010

Source: US Census, ARC

Growth Creates Demand for Infrastructure: Are We Prepared? TRANSIT (same scale, yellow transit lines and red transit stops)

Meeting Transportation

Challenges

Source: Plan2040

“If you want to be a leader, you’ve got to be a reader.”

David Noebel, religious leader and writer (1937–)

Questions?




[email protected]

http://www.neighborhoodnexus.org/http://www.atlantaregional.com/

http://www.neighborhoodnexus.org/



http://www.atlantaregional.com/

trends in the atlanta region and buckhead — demographics and growth seminar – 2013

Data & Analytics

area of atlanta

buckhead tract

total population

southwest atlanta tract

metro atlanta

metropolitan atlanta

city of atlanta

tract of south buckhead