Trends in Container Shipping

Olaf Merk

Stakeholder Meeting on Container Shipping

8 February 2019

OECD Conference Centre

Trends

1. Concentration

2. Vertical integration

3. Price

4. Service quality

2

1. Concentration (global carrier capacity)

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Top 4 Top 10

Capacity market shares global carriers (1998-2018)

Source: Alphaliner

1. Concentration (ship capacity per trade lane)

4

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Europe-North America

Far East-Europe

Far East-Europe and Europe- North America (February 2019)

Source: Alphaliner

1. Concentration (alliances)

5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Med-N America East Coast

N Europe-N America East Coast

Asia-Med

Asia-North Europe

Share non-alliances in East-West trades (2012-2018)

Source: Sea Intelligence

1. Concentration (alliances)

6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Non-alliance

THE Alliance

Ocean Alliance

O3

2M

CKYHE

G6

Market shares on Asia-North Europe trade lane, per quarter (2012-2018)

Source: Sea Intelligence

1. Concentration (alliances)

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Non-Alliance

THE Alliance

Ocean Alliance

2M

G6

New World Alliance

Grand Alliance

Market shares on North Europe- North America East Coast trade lane (2012-2018)

Source: Sea Intelligence

1. Concentration (ship size)

8

Source: Sea Intelligence

2. Vertical integration (feedering)

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

UK and Ireland Iberian Atlantic Baltic West Med Black Sea Adriatic and

Aegean

Common Dedicated

Share of common and dedicated operators in European regions

Source: Dynamar

2. Vertical integration (terminals)

10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Carrier-controlled operators Independent global terminal operators Other

Types of terminal operators in Europe (2007-2017)

Source: Drewry

3. Price

11

Source: Sea Intelligence

4. Service quality (direct liner connectivity)

12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0 transhipment 1 transhipment 2 transhipments

Share of countries that can be reached by German exporters with zero transhipment 2006-2016

Source: UNCTAD

4. Service quality (direct liner connectivity)

13

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0 transhipment 1 transhipment 2 transhipments

Country share that can be reached by Slovenian exporters with zero transhipment 2006-2016

Source: UNCTAD

4. Service quality (port-to-port connections)

14

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

Dis

tin

ct

po

rt

pair

s

Distinct port pairs on Asia-North Europe services 2012-2018

Source: Sea Intelligence

4. Service quality (port-to-port connections)

15

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

Dis

tinct

port

pairs

Distinct port pairs on Asia-Med services 2012-2018

Source: Sea Intelligence

4. Service quality (service frequency)

16

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

Asia-NEUR Asia-MED Linear (Asia-NEUR) Linear (Asia-MED)

Weekly service frequency on Asia-Europe trade lanes 2012-2018

Source: Sea Intelligence

4. Service quality (service frequency)

17

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19

NEUR-USEC MED-USEC Linear (NEUR-USEC) Linear (MED-USEC)

Weekly service frequency on Transatlantic trade lanes 2012-2018

Source: Sea Intelligence

4. Service quality (schedule reliability)

18

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Asia - Mediterranean

Asia - North Europe

Global average

Transatlantic Eastbound

Transatlantic Westbound

Schedule reliability on European trade lanes (2012-2018)

Source: Sea Intelligence

4. Service quality (blank sailings)

19

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Nu

mb

er o

f b

lan

k s

ail

ing

s

Asia-North Europe

Asia-Mediterranean

Number of blanked sailings on Asia-Europe trade lanes (2012-2018)

Source: Sea Intelligence

4. Service quality (blank sailings)

20

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

Cap

cit

y w

ith

draw

n b

ecau

se o

f b

lan

ked

sail

ing

s (

TE

U)

Asia-North Europe

Asia-Mediterranean

Capacity withdrawn because of blanked sailings on Asia-Europe trade lanes (2012-2018)

Source: Sea Intelligence

Impact on transport stakeholders

• What are the most relevant developments in

container shipping since the last Review of the

Consortia Block Exemption Regulation?

• What are the most important concerns now and

for the future for your organisation that the

Review should take into account?

21