Transportation Fuel Choices for Asia

The Role of Biofuels

Anthony Dixon

Singapore International Energy Week, 2014

Our Carbon BudgetBurnable Carbon for 80% probability of 2 - 3 degrees

• 2013 – 2049 900 Gt CO2

• 2050 – 2100 75 Gt CO2

• 380 Gt emitted 2000 - 2012

• Burnable carbon - only 30% of P1

fossil reserves of all listed energy

companies.

Source: Carbon Tracker Initiative

The Growth of MobilityPassenger travel and freight expected to double by 2050

Dulac, IEA (2012)

Low carbon fuels are key to achieving 2DS target

in transport

Dulac, IEA (2012)

Potential for Natural Gas Substitution for Oil

Global Oil Demand (Million bbl/d)

Citi (2013)

2 MM bbl/d in

Transport

Natural Gas Substitution

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Electricity Gas (LPG) Oil

Tera

Jou

les

g C

O2

eq

/MJ

TeraJoules g CO2 eq/MJ

Transport Fuels in Hong Kong (2012)

95

60

18682%

15%

3 %

EMSD, EPD, ASB

Energy GHG Emissions

Four Fundamental Challenges for Biofuels

• Achieving bona fide carbon reductions

• Competition for Land and Food

• Biomass supply and mobilization

• Cost

GHG Emissions – 1G and 2G Biofuels

Typical Values from Renewable Energy Directive Annex V; LUC from CIFOR (2011)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Fossil Diesel / Gasoline

1G Biodiesel, palm oil, no CH4 capture

1G Ethanol - Sugar cane

1G Ethanol - Sugar Cane - no LUC

1G Ethanol - Corn

1G Palm Biodiesel, no CH4 capture

1G Palm Biodiesel with CH4 capture

1G Soy Biodiesel

1G Rapeseed Biodiesel

2G UCO Biodiesel

2G Ethanol - Energy Crop

2G FT Diesel - Energy Crop

G CO2 eq / MJ

Land Use Change Cultivation Processing Transport

Savings of 68 % – 88%

9

Searchinger - Land Use Change

Searchinger et. al. (2008), Science, 319 (5867):1238040

Air Quality Co-benefits (biodiesel)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

TotalUnburned

Hydrocarbons

CarbonMonoxide

ParticulateMatter

NOx Sulfates PAH nPAH Ozonepotential of

speciated HC

Diesel B20 B100

Food v Fuel - 1G Biofuels

Global Veg Oil and Biodiesel

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Vegetable Oils Biodiesel

Mill

ion

s to

ns

per

yea

r

Palm Soybean

Rapeseed Sunflowerseed

Palm Kernel Peanut

Cottonseed Coconut

Olive Biodiesel

16% (0.7 EJ)

FAO, ASB, ethanol producer.com March 1st, 2012

36%

28%

12%

13%

4%7%

Feed and ResidualFuel EthanolRe-enters Feed Market as DDGExportHFCSOther

US Corn Usage (2011)

Global Land Area

UKERC (2011)

2G Technology at Commercial Stage

UKERC (2011)

• Abengoa cellulosic plant, Hugoton, US

• Agricultural residues – wheat straw,

corn stover, switchgrass.

• 25 MM gallons / yr

• 300,000 tons / year of dry locally

sources biomass

Estimates of Biomass Energy Potential

Slade et. al. Nature Climate Change, 2014

Estimates of Biomass Energy Potential

Slade et. al. Nature Climate Change, 2014

Mobilizing Biomass Estimates of Waste Oil from Major Cities in Asia

16

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Ton

s p

er a

nn

um

15 cities ~ 800,000 tons / yr

Cost Outlook - 2G Biodiesel

2012 2020

Cost Outlook - 2G Bioethanol

IRENA

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

Gra

ins:

201

2

Bra

zil s

uga

r ca

ne:

20

12

Enzy

mat

ic h

ydro

lysi

s: 2

012/

13

Enzy

mat

ic h

ydro

lysi

s: 2

02

0

Ind

ire

ct g

asif

icat

ion

: 20

20

Soy,

rap

ese

ed

, pal

m:

2012

Fast

pyr

oly

sis

(25

0 L

/ to

nn

e): 2

012

/13

Fast

pyr

oly

sis

(27

5-3

40

L /

to

nn

e):

202

0

FT h

igh

te

mp

: 20

20

FT lo

w t

emp

. (1

80 L

/T):

20

20

Conventional ethanol Advanced ethanol ConventionalBiodiesel

Advanced Biodiesel

20

12

USD

/ li

tre

of

gaso

line

or

die

sel e

qu

ival

ent

Cost Outlook to 2020 (Summary)

Ave 2012 fossil fuel prices in US ex-refinery

IRENA

20

The Biofuel Policy Landscape – Volume Targets

1. Angola E10 2. Argentina E5, B7 3. Australia (NSW) E4, B2, Planned E10 4. Brazil E20, B5, Planned E25 5. Canada E5, B2 6. ChilePlanned E5 7. China (9 provinces) E10, Planned E10/B10 8. Columbia E8, Planned E10 9. Costa Rica E7, B20 10. Ethiopia E5 11. E.U.10% Renewable Energy in all transport fuel by 2020 12. Fiji Planned E10, B5 13. India E5, Planned E20/B20 14. Indonesia E3, B2.5 15.Jamaica E10 16. Kenya E10 17. Malawi E10 18. Malaysia B5 19. Mexico E2 (Guadalajara), Planned E2 (Mexico City, Monterrey) 20.Mozambique E10 21. Nigeria E10 22. Panama E2, Planned E10 23. Paraguay E24, B1 24. Peru E7.8, B2, Planned B5 25. PhilippinesE10, B2 26. South Africa E10 27. South Korea B2.5 28. Sudan E5 29. Taiwan B1, Planned E3 30. Thailand B5 31. USA Renewable Fuelblended in increasing amounts year after year 32. Uruguay B2, Planned E5 33. Vietnam E5 34. Zambia B5, E10 35. Zimbabwe E10

(Source: Global Renewable Fuels Alliance, August 2013)

5

31

19 15

922 8

424

2332

26

11

21

2810

1617

2034

351

26

27

13297

253330

18

14

3

12

Investment Flows

System-Wide Thinking and Coordination

Three Conditions For Biofuel Scale

• Policy Certainty

• Increased Investment

• System-wide vision and coordination

Conclusions – 2G Biofuels in Transport

• An alternative fuel option now at commercialization stage

• 70%+ greenhouse gas emissions savings;

• Potentially significant share of transport energy

• No food vs fuel; reduced land use challenges

• Cost competitive by 2020

• Scale-up will require clear long term policy, large increases in capital investment, cross-industry vision and collaboration

Thank you

Natural Gas Vehicles

Market ShareWEO (2011)

Cost of 2G biofuel vs US feedstock supply (2050)

1G Biofuels in use today

2.5 EJ

IRENA (2012)