transitions & transition management for sustainable
TRANSCRIPT
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20-12-2002
Transitions & Transition Managementfor sustainable development
Jan RotmansOECD, 12-13 December
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?
• Our society faces structural, wicked problems which cannot be solvedwith incremental changes
agriculture, energy, water, health care, transport, ageing
• Increasing societal complexity forces us to think and act in a moreinnovative manner
• System complexity requires new way of looking at the nature of ourwicked problems
new problem perceptions and solutions
• Societal complexity requires a new way of governancenew steering paradigm
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NEW TYPE OF SOCIETAL PROBLEMS
Characterized by
large complexitystructural uncertaintyhigh stakessteering problems
Which cannot be handled by current policies and current research
we need structural changes in our thinking and acting
transitions
TRANSITIONS
A transition is a social transformation process with thefollowing characteristics
• structural change to society (or complex subsystem ofsociety)
• a long-term process that covers at least one generation• large-scale technological, economic, ecological, social-
cultural and institutional developments that influence andstrengthen each other
• interactions between developments at different scale levels
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EXAMPLES OF TRANSITIONS
• from industrial economy to services economy toknowledge economy
• from a communist system to a free market society
• from a coal-based energy infrastructure to natural gasenergy infrastructure
Sociaal-cultural capital
Ecological capital Economic capital
economytransport
energy
ecology
institutionswater
culturetechnology
co-evolutionary process
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Transition concept
sociological concept (Davis, 1945)
population dynamics
economic concept (Rostow, 1960)
from a planned economy to market economy
Innovation technological concept (Rip, 1998)
multi-level technology dynamics
Integrated Assessment concept (Rotmans, Kemp 2000)
multi-scale, multi-temporal, multi-domain
THE TRANSITION THEORY
• A theory with which the complexity and coherence of broad societalchanges can be ordered
• An analytical part which deals with the recognition of transitionpatterns based on multiple causality and co-evolution
• A steering part which deals with how to manage transitions into asustainable direction
searching for the genes of sustainability dynamics
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THE TRANSITION THEORY
Consists of three pillars
» multi-phase concept
» multi-level concept
» multi-change concept
Needs empirical validation
MULTI-PHASE CONCEPT
• Pre-development phasedynamic equilibrium with no visible change
• Take-off phaseignition phase where shift begins
• Acceleration phase
visible structural changes take place
• Stabilisation phase
new dynamic equilibrium is reached
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MULTI-PHASE CONCEPT
Time
System changeindicator
Stabilisation
Acceleration
Take-off
Pre-development
TRANSITION TO ‘INTEGRATED, CLEANAND INTELLIGENT TRANSPORT’
Carelectronics
IntelligentHighways
P + R, buslanes
Personalisedpublic transport
Fuel cellvehicles
CO2policies
Advanced collectivetransport (HST)
Reduction in pollutionand energy use
Organisedcar sharing
Mobilitycards andleasing
Anti -congestionpolicies
Urbancars
Integratedmobility
Clean andintelligentcars
Level ofintegration,amount ofbehaviouralchange
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MULTI-LEVEL CONCEPT
• Macro-levelslow societal trends and developments: political culture,worldviews, paradigms, demography
• Meso-levelsocial norms, interests, rules and belief systems thatdetermine strategies of institutions and organisations
• Micro-levelniche-level at which individual actors operate
MULTI-LEVEL CONCEPT
Macro level (landscape)
Meso level (regimes)
Micro level (niches)
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MULTI-CHANGE CONCEPTlemniscate of Holling
1. exploitationperiod of competition between entrepeneurs
2. conservationperiod of increasing rigidity and increasing connectedness
3. releaseperiod of destabilisation through strong feedbacks between
revolting elements and established aggregates
4. reorganisationperiod of innovative experiments with high uncertainty
Hollings “Lemniscate”
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MULTI-SCALE CONCEPT
Two different phases1. from exploitation to conservation
accumulation of capitalpre-development and take-off phase
2. from release to reorganisationinnovation and restructuringacceleration and stabilisation phase
USING TRANSITION CONCEPTS
we can analyse transition patterns in terms of:1. temporal dimension
speed, size, time period of a transition
2. scale level dimensionmicro-meso-macro-scale level of a transition
3. nature of changebreakdown, innovation and restructuring
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Can We Manage Transitions?
Yes
We can influence and guide the process
Direction and speed of transitions
No
We cannot command and control transitions
Uncertainty and surprises
Transition Management
• Evolutionary steering conceptgovernance, interactive government, networking
• Multi-actor governanceaims at system innovation and sustainability
• Adaptive and Anticipative managementuncertainty and complexity management
• Steering through learning
doing-by-learning and learning-by-doing
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Transition managementnetwork steering and self-steering
Desired situation:network steering and
self steering
Present situation: verticaland hierarchical steering
Macro developments
Transition management in practice
• Establishing and organising an innovation-network• Transition arena of forerunners and innovators
• Developing long-term visions• Transition goals, images and instruments
• Formulating and executing innovation experiments• Learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning
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Transition management versusCurrent Policy
Current policy: short-term goals, per period
Transition management offers a long-term perspective forshort-term actions
Transition management: aimed at realising long-term sustainable goals inmore than one step
Transition Arena- Long term- Frontrunners- Systeminnovation- Problem- andgoalsearching
Communicating Arenas
society
Arena for current policy- Short term- Peloton- Incr. improvements- Problem- andgoaloriented
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Communication with the home-bases
Home basegovernment
Home baseknowledge –institutes
Home baseNGOs
Home basecompanies
Transition arenaIndependentfacilitator
Networkorientedpolicy-teams,
supported by themanagement
DUTCH CASE-STUDY:TRANSITION TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY
Study for the Dutch Ministries of the Environmentand Economic Affairs
What are the major barriers and chances for this transition?
How could it be achieved?
What is the role of the Dutch government?
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CHANCES AND OBSTACLES FOR DUTCHENERGY TRANSITION
• Seems to be no reason for changeno calamities / nor direct cause
• Abundance of fossil energy sourceslow energy prices, low investment in alternatives
• Kyoto-protocolNetherlands could meet the Kyoto-climate targets (theoretically)
• Liberalizationshort-term focus on cost savings
• Fear for lock-in (energy companies)
Obstacles
CHANCES AND OBSTACLES FOR DUTCHENERGY TRANSITION
• Current energy supply is not sustainable
detrimental environmental effects
• Growing notion in society that a shift towards a more sustainable energy supplyis necessaryglobal environmental problems are energy-driven
• Netherlands is vulnerable in case of dependency on one energy carriertechnological monoculture
• Delay of energy transformation leads to future problems
future energy supply determined by current R&D investments
• Advisory bodies support and promote energy supply transitionenergy infrastructure has to change fundamentallyin the long run
Chances
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TRANSITION MANAGEMENT FOR LOWEMISSIONS ENERGY SUPPLY
Step-wise approach
• Formulating common transition goal
• Exploring final energy transition images
• Formulating intermediate goals
• Create public support
FORMULATE COMMONTRANSITION GOAL
• 50% CO2-reduction
• structural change of energy infrastructure (innovation)
• cleaner energy infrastructure
• safer energy infrastructure
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EXPLORE FINAL ENERGY IMAGES
1. Status Quo: current infrastructure remains intact, but final energy carriers will bemade of sustainable energy sourcesfinal energy carriers: natural gas, oil and electricityprimary energy carriers: sustainable / clean fossil fuel
infrastructure: remains the sametechnologies: conversion of biomass/coal
Three ‘blueprints’ for future Dutch energy supply
2. Hydrogen: hydrogen as final energy carrier instead of natural gas and oil
final energy carriers: hydrogenprimary energy carriers: sustainable / clean fossil fuelinfrastructure: adaptation of natural gas networktechnologies: fuel cells, hydrogen cars
3. All-electric: electricity as final energy carrier in all sectors of society
final energy carriers: electricityprimary energy carriers: sustainable / clean fossil fuelinfrastructure: large-scale electricity networktechnologies: elektric heat pumps / electric cars
E
H2
SQ
H2
EE
E
E
H2
H2
H2
SQ
SQ
SQ
SQ
System innovation
System optimalisation
• Transition management = keep 3 options open by anticipation and timely hookingup and steering
• No shock-wise development but gradual changes
• No transition management means lock out of certain options
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TRANSITION MANAGEMENT IN RELATIONTO CURRENT POLICY
Transition management ≠ fundamental criticism on current policy,but a means to put current policy into a longer-term transitionalperspective
For example:
Kyoto as first step toinnovation
Kyoto Kyoto+ Kyoto ++ (1)
(2)
Kyoto as improvement ofcurrent system
TRANSITION MANAGEMENT ANDCURRENT POLICY
Transition perspective adds somethingto current climate policy
Current policy (Kyoto and Kyoto+) will lead to lock-out of hydrogenand electric ‘blueprints’
Transition policy management:structured experiments from a long-term vision
Transition management = current policy +
long-term vision + innovation + coherence
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Actor analysis for energy case
• Opposing viewpoints on future energy supply
• energy transition is still in its pre-developmentphase
• None of the actors seem to be willing to take thelead
• All actors expect from the government a leadingrole
• Most actors have a preference for status-quo ‘blueprint’
a breakthrough is necessary
to realise a take-off
WHAT COULD BE THE ROLE OF THE DUTCH
GOVERNMENT?
Pre-development phase:
- Keep playing field broad- Start up a participative discussion- Strategic niche management
Take off fase:Mobilize actors(appealing perspectives /quality images)
Acceleration phase:Monitor promising developments --> steering among them --> choose
Stabilisation phase:Stimulate new regime(consolidation)
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CONCLUSIONS• A transition to a low emissions energy supply seems feasible
• This could only be realised in an international context
• For the Netherlands this would mean:– no direct forcing of the current energy infrastructure
– keep open multiple transition ‘blueprints’
– complies with Kyoto (and Kyoto+)-goals
– mobilises relevant actors
– organises a participatory process on energy transition
– formulates participatory-based policy corridor (within which major actorscould manoeuvre)
– coordinates innovative research into new energy carriers
– supports local and regional sustainability experiments