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20-12-2002

Transitions & Transition Managementfor sustainable development

Jan RotmansOECD, 12-13 December

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?

• Our society faces structural, wicked problems which cannot be solvedwith incremental changes

agriculture, energy, water, health care, transport, ageing

• Increasing societal complexity forces us to think and act in a moreinnovative manner

• System complexity requires new way of looking at the nature of ourwicked problems

new problem perceptions and solutions

• Societal complexity requires a new way of governancenew steering paradigm

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NEW TYPE OF SOCIETAL PROBLEMS

Characterized by

large complexitystructural uncertaintyhigh stakessteering problems

Which cannot be handled by current policies and current research

we need structural changes in our thinking and acting

transitions

TRANSITIONS

A transition is a social transformation process with thefollowing characteristics

• structural change to society (or complex subsystem ofsociety)

• a long-term process that covers at least one generation• large-scale technological, economic, ecological, social-

cultural and institutional developments that influence andstrengthen each other

• interactions between developments at different scale levels

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EXAMPLES OF TRANSITIONS

• from industrial economy to services economy toknowledge economy

• from a communist system to a free market society

• from a coal-based energy infrastructure to natural gasenergy infrastructure

Sociaal-cultural capital

Ecological capital Economic capital

economytransport

energy

ecology

institutionswater

culturetechnology

co-evolutionary process

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Transition concept

sociological concept (Davis, 1945)

population dynamics

economic concept (Rostow, 1960)

from a planned economy to market economy

Innovation technological concept (Rip, 1998)

multi-level technology dynamics

Integrated Assessment concept (Rotmans, Kemp 2000)

multi-scale, multi-temporal, multi-domain

THE TRANSITION THEORY

• A theory with which the complexity and coherence of broad societalchanges can be ordered

• An analytical part which deals with the recognition of transitionpatterns based on multiple causality and co-evolution

• A steering part which deals with how to manage transitions into asustainable direction

searching for the genes of sustainability dynamics

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THE TRANSITION THEORY

Consists of three pillars

» multi-phase concept

» multi-level concept

» multi-change concept

Needs empirical validation

MULTI-PHASE CONCEPT

• Pre-development phasedynamic equilibrium with no visible change

• Take-off phaseignition phase where shift begins

• Acceleration phase

visible structural changes take place

• Stabilisation phase

new dynamic equilibrium is reached

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MULTI-PHASE CONCEPT

Time

System changeindicator

Stabilisation

Acceleration

Take-off

Pre-development

TRANSITION TO ‘INTEGRATED, CLEANAND INTELLIGENT TRANSPORT’

Carelectronics

IntelligentHighways

P + R, buslanes

Personalisedpublic transport

Fuel cellvehicles

CO2policies

Advanced collectivetransport (HST)

Reduction in pollutionand energy use

Organisedcar sharing

Mobilitycards andleasing

Anti -congestionpolicies

Urbancars

Integratedmobility

Clean andintelligentcars

Level ofintegration,amount ofbehaviouralchange

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MULTI-LEVEL CONCEPT

• Macro-levelslow societal trends and developments: political culture,worldviews, paradigms, demography

• Meso-levelsocial norms, interests, rules and belief systems thatdetermine strategies of institutions and organisations

• Micro-levelniche-level at which individual actors operate

MULTI-LEVEL CONCEPT

Macro level (landscape)

Meso level (regimes)

Micro level (niches)

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MULTI-CHANGE CONCEPTlemniscate of Holling

1. exploitationperiod of competition between entrepeneurs

2. conservationperiod of increasing rigidity and increasing connectedness

3. releaseperiod of destabilisation through strong feedbacks between

revolting elements and established aggregates

4. reorganisationperiod of innovative experiments with high uncertainty

Hollings “Lemniscate”

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MULTI-SCALE CONCEPT

Two different phases1. from exploitation to conservation

accumulation of capitalpre-development and take-off phase

2. from release to reorganisationinnovation and restructuringacceleration and stabilisation phase

USING TRANSITION CONCEPTS

we can analyse transition patterns in terms of:1. temporal dimension

speed, size, time period of a transition

2. scale level dimensionmicro-meso-macro-scale level of a transition

3. nature of changebreakdown, innovation and restructuring

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Can We Manage Transitions?

Yes

We can influence and guide the process

Direction and speed of transitions

No

We cannot command and control transitions

Uncertainty and surprises

Transition Management

• Evolutionary steering conceptgovernance, interactive government, networking

• Multi-actor governanceaims at system innovation and sustainability

• Adaptive and Anticipative managementuncertainty and complexity management

• Steering through learning

doing-by-learning and learning-by-doing

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Transition managementnetwork steering and self-steering

Desired situation:network steering and

self steering

Present situation: verticaland hierarchical steering

Macro developments

Transition management in practice

• Establishing and organising an innovation-network• Transition arena of forerunners and innovators

• Developing long-term visions• Transition goals, images and instruments

• Formulating and executing innovation experiments• Learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning

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Transition management versusCurrent Policy

Current policy: short-term goals, per period

Transition management offers a long-term perspective forshort-term actions

Transition management: aimed at realising long-term sustainable goals inmore than one step

Transition Arena- Long term- Frontrunners- Systeminnovation- Problem- andgoalsearching

Communicating Arenas

society

Arena for current policy- Short term- Peloton- Incr. improvements- Problem- andgoaloriented

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Communication with the home-bases

Home basegovernment

Home baseknowledge –institutes

Home baseNGOs

Home basecompanies

Transition arenaIndependentfacilitator

Networkorientedpolicy-teams,

supported by themanagement

DUTCH CASE-STUDY:TRANSITION TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY

Study for the Dutch Ministries of the Environmentand Economic Affairs

What are the major barriers and chances for this transition?

How could it be achieved?

What is the role of the Dutch government?

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CHANCES AND OBSTACLES FOR DUTCHENERGY TRANSITION

• Seems to be no reason for changeno calamities / nor direct cause

• Abundance of fossil energy sourceslow energy prices, low investment in alternatives

• Kyoto-protocolNetherlands could meet the Kyoto-climate targets (theoretically)

• Liberalizationshort-term focus on cost savings

• Fear for lock-in (energy companies)

Obstacles

CHANCES AND OBSTACLES FOR DUTCHENERGY TRANSITION

• Current energy supply is not sustainable

detrimental environmental effects

• Growing notion in society that a shift towards a more sustainable energy supplyis necessaryglobal environmental problems are energy-driven

• Netherlands is vulnerable in case of dependency on one energy carriertechnological monoculture

• Delay of energy transformation leads to future problems

future energy supply determined by current R&D investments

• Advisory bodies support and promote energy supply transitionenergy infrastructure has to change fundamentallyin the long run

Chances

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TRANSITION MANAGEMENT FOR LOWEMISSIONS ENERGY SUPPLY

Step-wise approach

• Formulating common transition goal

• Exploring final energy transition images

• Formulating intermediate goals

• Create public support

FORMULATE COMMONTRANSITION GOAL

• 50% CO2-reduction

• structural change of energy infrastructure (innovation)

• cleaner energy infrastructure

• safer energy infrastructure

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EXPLORE FINAL ENERGY IMAGES

1. Status Quo: current infrastructure remains intact, but final energy carriers will bemade of sustainable energy sourcesfinal energy carriers: natural gas, oil and electricityprimary energy carriers: sustainable / clean fossil fuel

infrastructure: remains the sametechnologies: conversion of biomass/coal

Three ‘blueprints’ for future Dutch energy supply

2. Hydrogen: hydrogen as final energy carrier instead of natural gas and oil

final energy carriers: hydrogenprimary energy carriers: sustainable / clean fossil fuelinfrastructure: adaptation of natural gas networktechnologies: fuel cells, hydrogen cars

3. All-electric: electricity as final energy carrier in all sectors of society

final energy carriers: electricityprimary energy carriers: sustainable / clean fossil fuelinfrastructure: large-scale electricity networktechnologies: elektric heat pumps / electric cars

E

H2

SQ

H2

EE

E

E

H2

H2

H2

SQ

SQ

SQ

SQ

System innovation

System optimalisation

• Transition management = keep 3 options open by anticipation and timely hookingup and steering

• No shock-wise development but gradual changes

• No transition management means lock out of certain options

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TRANSITION MANAGEMENT IN RELATIONTO CURRENT POLICY

Transition management ≠ fundamental criticism on current policy,but a means to put current policy into a longer-term transitionalperspective

For example:

Kyoto as first step toinnovation

Kyoto Kyoto+ Kyoto ++ (1)

(2)

Kyoto as improvement ofcurrent system

TRANSITION MANAGEMENT ANDCURRENT POLICY

Transition perspective adds somethingto current climate policy

Current policy (Kyoto and Kyoto+) will lead to lock-out of hydrogenand electric ‘blueprints’

Transition policy management:structured experiments from a long-term vision

Transition management = current policy +

long-term vision + innovation + coherence

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Actor analysis for energy case

• Opposing viewpoints on future energy supply

• energy transition is still in its pre-developmentphase

• None of the actors seem to be willing to take thelead

• All actors expect from the government a leadingrole

• Most actors have a preference for status-quo ‘blueprint’

a breakthrough is necessary

to realise a take-off

WHAT COULD BE THE ROLE OF THE DUTCH

GOVERNMENT?

Pre-development phase:

- Keep playing field broad- Start up a participative discussion- Strategic niche management

Take off fase:Mobilize actors(appealing perspectives /quality images)

Acceleration phase:Monitor promising developments --> steering among them --> choose

Stabilisation phase:Stimulate new regime(consolidation)

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CONCLUSIONS• A transition to a low emissions energy supply seems feasible

• This could only be realised in an international context

• For the Netherlands this would mean:– no direct forcing of the current energy infrastructure

– keep open multiple transition ‘blueprints’

– complies with Kyoto (and Kyoto+)-goals

– mobilises relevant actors

– organises a participatory process on energy transition

– formulates participatory-based policy corridor (within which major actorscould manoeuvre)

– coordinates innovative research into new energy carriers

– supports local and regional sustainability experiments