Transitioning to a low-Transitioning to a low-carbon futurecarbon future

- the world according to - the world according to

STAP!STAP!

Engineering a Transformational Shift to Low-Engineering a Transformational Shift to Low-Carbon Economies in the Developing WorldCarbon Economies in the Developing World

Washington D C, 20 March, 2013.Washington D C, 20 March, 2013.

Professor Ralph E H Sims, Professor Ralph E H Sims, Massey University, New ZealandMassey University, New Zealand

R.E.Sims@massey.ac.nzR.E.Sims@massey.ac.nz

Aim:To provide an update of recent scientific findings to assist GEF formulate its strategies and priorities for GEF-6, and help the world move towards a low-carbon, green economy.

Co-authors:Ravi RavindranathRalph SimsDiana Urge-VorsatzMilou BeerepootRajiv ChaturdeviLev Neretin

Global energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario (IEA WEO, 2012)

Gt OECDNon-OECD

New PoliciesScenario

7 Gt

15 Gt

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035

Current PoliciesScenario

450 Scenario

71%

29%

70%

29%

By 2035, COBy 2035, CO22 emissions rise to 44.1 Gt /yr in Current Policies; emissions rise to 44.1 Gt /yr in Current Policies; 37 Gt in New Policies ; but drop to 22.1 Gt in 450 Scenario. 37 Gt in New Policies ; but drop to 22.1 Gt in 450 Scenario.

Global energy-related CO2 emissionsabatement in the 450 Scenario

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Gt

450 Scenario

New Policies Scenario CO2 abatement 2020 2035Activity 2% 2%

End-use efficiency 18% 13%

Power plant efficiency 3% 2%

Electricity savings 50% 27%

Fuel and technology switching in end-uses

2% 3%

Renewables 15% 23%

Biofuels 2% 4%

Nuclear 5% 8%

CCS 4% 17%

Total (Gt CO2) 3.1 15.0

Energy efficiency reduces CO2 emissions by 6.4 Gt in 2035but share falls by 2035 as more renewables and CCS are used.

Chapter 1. The GEF – a financial mechanism for the UNFCCC.Chapter 1. The GEF – a financial mechanism for the UNFCCC.2. Need for urgent mitigation and adaptation actions.2. Need for urgent mitigation and adaptation actions.3. UNFCCC agreement on <2’C and stabilization targets3. UNFCCC agreement on <2’C and stabilization targets4. Energy efficiency technologies for mitigation.4. Energy efficiency technologies for mitigation.5. Renewable energy systems, policies and measures.5. Renewable energy systems, policies and measures.6. Urban systems, transport and infrastructure.6. Urban systems, transport and infrastructure.7. New technologies with large mitigation potential:7. New technologies with large mitigation potential: Short-lived climate forcersShort-lived climate forcers Agriculture, forests, other land use / REDD+Agriculture, forests, other land use / REDD+ GeoengineeringGeoengineering Carbon dioxide capture and storageCarbon dioxide capture and storage Nuclear energy.Nuclear energy.8. Transformational shifts and the role of the GEF.8. Transformational shifts and the role of the GEF.

Structure of the ReportStructure of the Report

Estimated economic GHG emission reduction potentials by sector and region in 2030 (IPCC, AR4 2007).

The GEF report confirms there are many technology The GEF report confirms there are many technology opportunities to reduce GHG emissions across all opportunities to reduce GHG emissions across all sectors, but they will require substantial resources, sectors, but they will require substantial resources, innovative means, and sustainable development.innovative means, and sustainable development.

The recommended focus for the The recommended focus for the new GEF Strategy towards a green new GEF Strategy towards a green

economyeconomy• Undertake an optimization approach to provide Undertake an optimization approach to provide systemic solutions systemic solutions rather than support single rather than support single technologies.technologies.

• Support Support more complete systems more complete systems that that encompass a combination of climate encompass a combination of climate mitigation and adaptation measures across the mitigation and adaptation measures across the key focal areas. key focal areas.

• “ “Green Cities” (including building designs Green Cities” (including building designs and improved transport systems) and and improved transport systems) and “Smart Food Systems” (including water, land, “Smart Food Systems” (including water, land, energy and climate), are energy and climate), are systemic themessystemic themes highlighted in the report. highlighted in the report.

Key messagesKey messages• The severity of climate change impacts will The severity of climate change impacts will

continue to impact on the delivery of global continue to impact on the delivery of global environmental benefits across all focal areas.environmental benefits across all focal areas.

The GEF should: The GEF should: • adopt strategies to screen for climate risks using adopt strategies to screen for climate risks using

appropriate indicators and incorporate resilience appropriate indicators and incorporate resilience enhancement measures in all of its programs;enhancement measures in all of its programs;

• focus on optimization of systems by supporting focus on optimization of systems by supporting countries leading the technology transition rather countries leading the technology transition rather than concentrating on single technologies;than concentrating on single technologies;

• support countries by identifying options for support countries by identifying options for achieving transformational shifts and “leap-achieving transformational shifts and “leap-frogging” opportunities towards low-C pathways;frogging” opportunities towards low-C pathways;

Key messages (continued)Key messages (continued)• encourage sustainable food supply systems encourage sustainable food supply systems

integrated with energy use, water use, nutrient integrated with energy use, water use, nutrient cycling, climate resilience;cycling, climate resilience;

• respond to climate change in urban systems by respond to climate change in urban systems by combining approaches to land use planning, combining approaches to land use planning, buildings, transport, water supply, waste buildings, transport, water supply, waste treatment, food security, chemical management, treatment, food security, chemical management, biodiversity and coastal management;biodiversity and coastal management;

• support policies, measures and practices at the support policies, measures and practices at the local government level that can engage with local government level that can engage with citizens on the climate change challenge and the citizens on the climate change challenge and the need to adapt.need to adapt.

• adopt the AFOLU approach to land use change, adopt the AFOLU approach to land use change, forests, soil carbon, methane emissions etc.forests, soil carbon, methane emissions etc.

Overall, the GEF should assist recipient Overall, the GEF should assist recipient countries to assess, select and evaluate: countries to assess, select and evaluate:

technologies, policies, measures, technologies, policies, measures, regulations, financial incentives and regulations, financial incentives and

needs, technology transfer mechanisms needs, technology transfer mechanisms and their institutional capacity, and their institutional capacity,

in order to enable them to rapidly make in order to enable them to rapidly make transformational shifts to a low-carbon transformational shifts to a low-carbon

pathway consistent with national pathway consistent with national sustainable development goals.sustainable development goals.

IPCC 5th Assessment Report

Working Group I: Climate science

report end of 2013Working Group II: Adaptation

report early 2014Working Group III: Mitigation

report mid 2014Synthesis report:

report late 2014.

What‘s new since AR4 in 2007?What‘s new since AR4 in 2007?

Choosing among Choosing among climate policies is climate policies is intrinsically an intrinsically an exercise in exercise in risk risk management management due due to the interacting to the interacting sources of sources of uncertainty. uncertainty.

Social systemSocial systemuncertaintiesuncertainties

Natural Natural systemsystemuncertaintiesuncertainties

WG IWG IClimate Climate sciencescience

WG IIWG IIAdaptatioAdaptatio

nn

WG IIIWG IIIMitigationMitigation

Hence AR5 will deal Hence AR5 will deal with interactions of with interactions of sources of sources of uncertainty.uncertainty.

Part I:Framing

Part II:Transformation

pathways

Part III:Policies & Institutions

IPCC - MitigationIPCC - Mitigation

Present and IAMs

Some cross-cutting issues:Some cross-cutting issues:

Bioenergy – annex in Agriculture.Bioenergy – annex in Agriculture.Life-cycle analysis – annex to Life-cycle analysis – annex to report.report.Costs and potentials ($/t COCosts and potentials ($/t CO2-eq2-eq).).Co-benefits and risks.Co-benefits and risks.Behavioural issues.Behavioural issues.Sustainable development Sustainable development impacts.impacts.Top down scenarios versus Top down scenarios versus bottom up analyses – over 1000 bottom up analyses – over 1000 scenarios considered.scenarios considered.

President Franklin D. RooseveltPresident Franklin D. Roosevelt