trade offs in large scale and small scale renewablescale ...energy units david mackay, sustainable...
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Trade offs in large scale and small scale renewablescale renewable energy solutionsAli Shakouri Baskin School of Engineering
energy solutionsBaskin School of EngineeringUniversity of California Santa Cruz
A k l d t ONRAcknowledgement: ONR, DARPA, AFOSR, CEA, NSF, DOE/EFRC, NASA/UCSC, CITRIS
CenSEPS Workshop: The Road to a 100% Renewable Energy System Milpitas, CA; 1 August 2011
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World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 1990-2035 13TW 2050: 25 30TWFuel Type 1990 2035 13TW 2050: 25-30TW
1 Quad = 1.055 x 1018J
2US Department of Energy; Energy Information Administration (2010)
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100% Renewable Energies by 2050A scenarioA scenario
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WWF International, Ecofys, & Office for Metropolitan Architecture (2011)
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Felix’s forecasts of US energy consumption
Nuclear
consumption in year 2000 (early 1970’s)
Natural gas
Vaclav Smil,Coal
Oil
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,Energy at the Crossroads, 2005
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All Renewables Are Diffuse
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Energy Units
6David MacKay, Sustainable Energy –Without the Hot Air
David MacKay Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air
A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Efficiency vs. Size (Conventional Engines)
7Contradiction Chains, Darrell Mann, Univ. of Bath, UK
A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Wind Turbine Evolution
20092009 average turbine size in US: 1.74MW
Boeing 747 Airbus A380
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Trend toward bigger turbine sizesCA-Denmark Summer Program 2008; Helge Aagaard Madsen, DTU Riso
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Installed project costs are on the rise after a long period of decline.rise after a long period of decline.
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2009 Wind Technologies Market Report, US Department of Energy
A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Learning Curves
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“Learning by Doing” cost reductions versus installed capacity for various electricity generating technologies (IEA, 2000)
A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Wind Turbine Installation
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A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Intermittency of Renewables
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C t iCapturing Solar Energy in space(Peter Glaser et al., 1970s)( )
Global SuperconductingTransmission GridTransmission Grid(Buckminster Fuller,1970s)
Visionary Technology Systems that could Enable a Gl b l E P d b R bl E
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Global Economy Powered by Renewable Energy.Marty Hoffert
A. Shakouri 8/1/2011Desertec
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ffi i 31%Energy Use = 99 2 Quad = 105 EJ → Power ~3.3 TW
US Energy Flow 2008
RejectedEnergy 61%
1.3TW
efficiency ~31% RejectedEnergy 58%
1.3TW
efficiency ~32%Nucl 8 45
Energy Use 99.2 Quad 105 EJ → Power 3.3 TW
Solar 0.09Electricity Generation efficiency 32%
Hydro 2.45
Nucl. 8.45
Wind 0.51
Geo R id ti l11.48
Generation39.97
Natural Gas 23.84
Geo 0.35 Residential
Commercial8.58
Coal22.42
Biomass Industrial
23.94
25%Petroleum37.13
Biomass 3.88
27.86
15http://eed.llnl.gov/flow
20%TransportationQuads
A. Shakouri 8/1/2011US Energy Flow 1950
EnergySources
Energy Consumption
Hydroelectric
Electrical Generation 4.0
RejectedEnergy 49%
efficiency~25%Natural Gas 6.1
Hydroelectric0.4
Residential & Commercial
Coal13.6
Industrial
26%Petroleum11.9
Total: 33.9 Quad → 1.13TWPopulation: 161M
Transportation
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Population: 161M
Lawrence Livermore National Lab., http://eed.llnl.gov/flow
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Denmark: From Centralized to Decentralized Power ProductionDecentralized Power Production
17A.G. Holmsgaard
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Electricity- Hot Water Cogeneration
Sun Irradiation
(optional: Tracking incident angle)80%
100%
W/W
]
total Z=0.001 total Z=0.003heat Z=0.001 heat Z=0.003elec Z=0.001 elec Z=0.003pump Z=0.001 pump Z=0.003
Total Efficiency(optional: Tracking incident angle)
Concentrator e g Fresnel lens
Tank
<80oC40%
60%
y ef
ficie
ncy [
W
Hot Water
0~60oC
80oCe.g. Fresnel lens
TE
Water cooling(Heat sink)water reservoir
Hot water supplyAir conditioning
0%
20%
Ove
rall e
nerg
Electricity
Pumping power0~60oC ( )
Pump0~60oC-40%
-20%
1 10 100 1000
Pumping power
Thermoelectric Device
1 10 100 1000Concentrate ratio (C>1)
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K. Yazawa, A. Shakouri, "System optimization of hot water concentrated solar thermoelectric generation,“ Proc. Thermal Issues in Emerging Technologies (ThETA 3), Dec 19-22, Cairo, Egypt, pp. 283-290, 2010.
A. Shakouri 8/1/2011CO2e/ Person
P l ti
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Population
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Large Scale vs. Small Scale Renewable Energy Solutions?gy• Renewable energies are dilute (distributed
generation makes sense)generation makes sense)• Large scale energy storage is a key
challengechallenge• There are opportunities for local co-
generation and the optimization of the energy system
• Solutions for developed and developing countries could be different
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