towards a successful integration of wind power into europe’s electricity grids
DESCRIPTION
Towards a successful integration of wind power into Europe’s electricity grids. Contents. Study background and aims Approach & methodology Sample results Key findings Network strengthening Making best use of existing network capacity Wind / network technical compatibility - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Towards a successful integration of wind Towards a successful integration of wind power into Europe’s electricity gridspower into Europe’s electricity grids
ContentsContents
• Study background and aims• Approach & methodology• Sample results• Key findings
– Network strengthening– Making best use of existing network capacity– Wind / network technical compatibility– Costs and benefits– Policy issues
• Next steps• Acknowledgements
Background and AimsBackground and Aims
• Initiated summer 2007 by a consortium of TSOs from across Europe’s 4 synchronous areas
• With focus on:– Achieving Europe’s renewable energy targets– By addressing immediate and near-term network related
challenges concerning large scale wind power – In the context of a developing single internal market
ApproachApproach
• Detailed network models for Continental, Nordic, Great Britain and Ireland synchronous areas
• Collated existing national development plans to 2015 providing outlook to 2020
• Wind development scenarios consistent with TradeWind
• Market models and economic analysis supported by SUPWISci
• Project consultation including European Commission and other stakeholders
MethodologyMethodology
• Combine findings from detailed analysis of snapshots into context provided by year-round market modelling
• Year round modelling of wind in electricity market:– Measured wind time series spanning Europe– Day-ahead dispatch (national copper plates with designated cross-border
transfer capacities)– Within-day redispatch (key pinchpoints represented by linearised load flow
approximations)– Costs and operating patterns derived for fuel and CO2 price sensitivities
• Detailed analysis of load flow and system dynamics:– Challenging but realistic point-in-time snapshots – Key north & south wind patterns (selected from year-round data)– inform security assessments, operational demands and reinforcement
designs
LimitationsLimitations
• 2015 chosen as furthest future point for which detailed national development plans generally available
• Realistic snapshots do not show worst case conditions in every area:– EWIS is not a check on national plans– But focuses on demanding European conditions (market
interactions and continental wind patterns)
EWIS scenariosEWIS scenarios
• Best Estimate Wind scenario 2015 circa 140 GW wind
• Optimistic Wind scenario 2015circa 185GW wind optimistic but not impossible
• Enhanced Network Scenarioas optimistic wind scenario but with enhanced cross-border capacities(gives outlook beyond 2015)
• Reference Scenariowind as 2008 (circa 70GW)(identifies wind specific requirements)
Win
dPow
er
Exchange capacity
Best Estimate
Optimistic Wind Enhanced Network Scenario
EWIS scenario classification
Reference
DenmarkDenmark
GermanyGermany
UK & IrelandUK & Ireland
Year round statistical resultsYear round statistical results
Time (one year run)
Exc
hang
e
Congested Time
Congested Time
Exchange Duration Curve
Snapshots with context from databaseSnapshots with context from database
European Electricity Market Model
E2M2s
European Electricity Market Model
E2M2s
Scheduling Model SMScheduling Model SM
Joint Market Model JMM
Joint Market Model JMM
Generation Capacities;Seasonal Hydrores. Planning; Internat. Electricity Exchange
Generation Capacities;Seasonal Hydrores. Planning; Internat. Electricity Exchange
Electricity Prices;Cross-border Elec. Exchange
Electricity Prices;Cross-border Elec. Exchange
Input data base
Input data base
Wind and demand
data
Wind and demand
data
Output data base
Output data base
Unit Commitment;Reserve Usage
Unit Commitment;Reserve Usage
Wind & Load & Outage Scen.;Reserve Demand
Wind & Load & Outage Scen.;Reserve Demand
Scenario Tree Tool STT
Scenario Tree Tool STT
Green-X ToolGreen-X Tool
RES-E capacitiesCost of promotion
policies
RES-E capacitiesCost of promotion
policies
European Electricity Market Model
E2M2s
European Electricity Market Model
E2M2s
Scheduling Model SMScheduling Model SM
Joint Market Model JMM
Joint Market Model JMM
Generation Capacities;Seasonal Hydrores. Planning; Internat. Electricity Exchange
Generation Capacities;Seasonal Hydrores. Planning; Internat. Electricity Exchange
Electricity Prices;Cross-border Elec. Exchange
Electricity Prices;Cross-border Elec. Exchange
Input data base
Input data base
Wind and demand
data
Wind and demand
data
Output data base
Output data base
Unit Commitment;Reserve Usage
Unit Commitment;Reserve Usage
Wind & Load & Outage Scen.;Reserve Demand
Wind & Load & Outage Scen.;Reserve Demand
Scenario Tree Tool STT
Scenario Tree Tool STT
Green-X ToolGreen-X Tool
RES-E capacitiesCost of promotion
policies
RES-E capacitiesCost of promotion
policies
Low loadHigh wind NorthBest estimatePoint-in-time December 31st, 2015 06:00
MW
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
MW
h
020 Storage016 Fuel oil011 Sun010 Water_res008 Wind007 Nat_gas006 Coal002 Lignite009 Water005 Misc003 Biomass001 Nuclear
Po
int-
in-t
ime
SupWiSci consortium market model development (synergies to ongoing FP6 projects and TradeWind)
2015 risk assessments2015 risk assessments
•- Onshore installations
•- Offshore wind park cluster until 2015
•- Bulk power flow
•- Bottleneck
• Bulk DC power flow at rated line capacity
IrelandIreland UKUK NorthNorth
South WestSouth West Central EuropeCentral Europe SouthSouth
IEIEIEIE
SESENONO
FIFI
DDKK
NLNL
BEBE
FRFR
CZCZ
ATAT
DEDE
PLPL
DKDKSESE
CHCHNew pumping units SISI
NLNL
BEBE
FRFR
CZCZ
ATAT
DEDE
PLPL
DKDKSESE
CHCHNew pumping units SISI
Network strengtheningNetwork strengtheningConfirm existing + identify additionalConfirm existing + identify additional
• Longer-term measures ~€10.5b (€120/kW wind i.e. ~€4/MWh)
Stability & security assessmentsStability & security assessments
North South Mode (0,4 … 0.5 Hz)
• Security achieved with expected fault ride through performance
• Stability measures (stabilisers, etc) adequate but increasingly important as enhanced line ratings exploited
Balancing cost assessmentsBalancing cost assessments
1.6
1.92.0
2.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
BE LC BE HC OPT LC OPT HC
Case
EUR/
MW
h-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
CO2 cost CO2 startupcost
Fuel cost Fuel startupcost
OMV cost Total energycost
Cost types
mio
EU
R BE LC
BE HC
OPT LC
OPT HC
• Wind balancing costs €1.6-2.6/MWh of wind produced
Albers Equal Area Conic Projection
Effects of wind Effects of wind modelledmodelled on on increased crossincreased cross--border capacitiesborder capacities
-- Enhanced Network Scenario 2015 and beyond Enhanced Network Scenario 2015 and beyond --
• Additional capacities based on market model results
• Marginal values • Year-round average• Principal display of additional
capacities• No specific determination of
location and technical options
• Additional capacities based on market model results
• Marginal values • Year-round average• Principal display of additional
capacities• No specific determination of
location and technical options
Input Assumptions
Albers Equal Area Conic ProjectionAlbers Equal Area Conic Projection
Effects of wind Effects of wind modelledmodelled on on increased crossincreased cross--border capacitiesborder capacities
-- Enhanced Network Scenario 2015 and beyond Enhanced Network Scenario 2015 and beyond --
• Additional capacities based on market model results
• Marginal values • Year-round average• Principal display of additional
capacities• No specific determination of
location and technical options
• Additional capacities based on market model results
• Marginal values • Year-round average• Principal display of additional
capacities• No specific determination of
location and technical options
Input Assumptions
Cost-benefitsCost-benefits
• Also assessed:– Storage– Dynamic ratings– Enhanced demand side
• Potential for ~30 beneficial cross-border reinforcements @ €12,3b
Findings & RecommendationsFindings & Recommendations
• A pan-European network/market modelling approach is needed to identify measures to efficiently integrate wind– ENTSO-E is taking forward this demanding development task
• Identified additional/accelerated network strengthening measures to be considered– ENTSO-E has published in draft Ten Year Network Development
plan. Companies to take forward investment justifications
• Already planned reinforcements needed urgently – streamlined consenting crucial – Key schemes highlighted to policy makers
Findings & Recommendations (2)Findings & Recommendations (2)
• Funding of cross-border network strengthening requires regulatory assessment of European welfare (in addition to national regulatory scrutiny)– ERGEG (in advance of ACER) engaged on wind integration issues
• Additional short-term measures required– TSOs engaged in further development of operational switching, line
capacity management, phase shifters for power flow control, etc
• Inter-TSO cooperation essential for delivering short-term measures– Build on TSO Security Cooperation (TSC) and CORESO
Findings & Recommendations (3)Findings & Recommendations (3)
• Network code development & harmonisation– ENTSO-E has agreed to establish pilot working building on work
from EWIS and EWEA Grid Code group
• Market development (especially better network representation in day ahead and intra day markets)– EWIS modelling facilities available to regional initiative analyses
• Exchanging best practice and experience on TSO wind/demand forecasting and strategic management (e.g. see Spain)– Discussions and contacts to be continued within ENTSO-E
• Future options and policy developments– Links established between EWIS and Offshore Grid groups
• Continue work on wind integration for 2020 and beyond
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
• EWIS gratefully acknowledges: – the support of the European Commission DG TREN– the contribution of our modelling partners SUPWISci
(University of Duisberg-Essen)– the participation and collaboration of our key stakeholders,
especially the EWEA TradeWind study, IEA Task 25, Eurelectric & ENTSO-E
Our final report is available on:
www.wind-integration.eu