towards a low carbon transport future for the philippines · towards a low carbon transport future...

Towards a low carbon

transport future for the

Philippines Country Report

Presented at the Final Symposium of

“Study of Long-Term Transport Action Plan for ASEAN” Hotel Okura Tokyo – February 20, 2014

Jose Regin F. REGIDOR

Institute of Civil Engineering &

National Center for Transportation Studies

University of the Philippines

Population:

92 million 153 million

Senior citizens:

(2010) 6.8% (2030) 11% (2050) 15%

128 million

2010 2030 2050

(2030) 53% (2050) 54% Working:

(2010) 50%

2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

% U

rban

Po

pu

lati

on

(th

ou

sand

s)

Urban Rural % Urban

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gro

wth

rate

s

GD

P p

er C

ap

ita (cu

rren

t U

SD

)

GDP/Capita % Growth-GDP

actual

Urban and rural population

Economic performance

Source: UN, 2012

Source: ADBI, 2012

3

National

Spatial

Strategy

(2013)

This assumes that there is no aggressive push for rail

development in the country both for urban and long

distance services.

Source: WB, Transport Infrastructure Framework and Roadmap for the Philippines, Interim Report, 2013

FUTURE SCENARIOS

4

Alternative Passenger

Transport Demand Business As Usual Passenger

Transport Demand

Demand in billion passenger kilometers (BPKM)

467 BPKM 2050: 842 BPKM

283 BPKM 2030: 328 BPKM

5

Business As Usual Freight

Transport Demand

Alternative Freight

Transport Demand

Demand in billion ton kilometers (BTKM)

426 BTKM 2050: 748 BTKM

266 BTKM 2030: 305 BTKM

6

Case Characteristic Policies Future Image for Transport

PRIMARY CITY A. Rail transit such as MRT

to form a comprehensive

network.

B. BRT and bus transit for

other major routes and as

feeders to MRT.

C. Electric jeepneys and

tricycles as feeders to bus

and rail.

D. Hybrid and electric cars

will be dominant over

conventional cars.

- CBDs of high-density

developments will be

served by mass transit

systems;

- These will be

complemented by

modern 4- and 3-wheeled

paratransit;

- Most cars will be hybrid

or electric by 2050.

7


LARGE CITY A. Rail transit (MRT or LRT)

introduced starting 2025,

targeting perhaps at least 2

lines for each city by 2050.

B. BRT and bus are

introduced starting 2020

and 2015, respectively.

C. EV is pursued as

dominant mode for modern

jeepneys and tricycles.

D. Hybrid and electric cars

will replace conventional

cars though not as widely

as in Metro Manila.

- Large cities will have

mass transit systems;

- Modern jitneys will serve

feeder routes;

- electric tricycles will serve

residential areas and

local streets;

- Significant number of

cars will be hybrid or

electric.

8


CITY A. Bus introduced by 2020 to

serve main routes.

B. Promotion of electric and

LPG jitneys

C. Promotion of electric

tricycles

D. Promotion of hybrid and

electric cars.

- Smaller cities will have

buses serving main

routes;

- Mix of modern and

conventional jeepneys

and tricycles serve minor

roads and residential

areas;

- Significant NMT and

pedestrian facilities in

most small cities.

9


MUNICIPALITY A. Major routes to be served

by jitneys with capacities

similar to present day

jeepneys.

B. Promotion of electric

tricycles

C. Promotion of NMT

paratransit

D. Provision of pedestrian

facilities

- Major transport routes in

municipalities will be

served by jitneys instead

of tricycles;

- Tricycles will still provide

motorized transport in

many areas but those in

the CBDs will include

many e-trikes;

- Many areas will be

pedestrian and bicycle-

friendly.

10


INTER-

REGIONAL

A. Incentives for upgrade of

truck fleets

B. Incentives and

investments for regional

rail infrastructure

- Rail transport will become

the backbone of land-

based freight and

passenger transport by

2050;

- Trucks will run on hybrid-

diesel and natural gas.

11


INTERNATIONAL A. Airlines, particularly low

cost carriers, are given

incentives including

deregulation

B. Maritime transport

companies are given

incentives to upgrade

their vessels.

C. Easing of travel

restrictions such as visa

requirements across

ASEAN as well as other

countries

- International transport

will be dominated by air

(for passengers) and

maritime (for freight)

transport;

- There will be more travel

between ASEAN

countries as restrictions

across the region are

eased.

12

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

tCO

2/y

r/p

ers

on

PRIMARY CITY

BAU Alternative Target

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

tCO

2/y

r/p

ers

on

INTER-REGIONAL


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TT

W C

O2/c

ap

ita

(tC

O2/y

r/p

ers

on

)

NATIONAL


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

tCO

2/y

r/p

ers

on

LARGE CITY


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

tCO

2/y

r/p

ers

on

CITY


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

tCO

2/y

r/pers

on

NON-CITY


13

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TT

W C

O2

/ca

pit

a (

tCO

2/y

r/p

ers

on

)

BAU AlternativeTarget Target Alternative

OBTAINED RESULT

DESIRED RESULT

AGGRESSIVE BUT

REALISTIC POLICIES

AND PROGRAMS

DOUBLE EFFORT!

UNREALISTIC?

Further reduction requires, for example:

• Doubling passengers shifting from 2W/3W to bus and rail

• Significant shift of freight transport from truck and air to rail

14

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Exte

rnal

Co

sts

(b

illio

n p

eso

s)

Accidents Air pollution

Climate change high scenario Noise

Congestion (delay cost)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Exte

rnal

Co

sts

(b

illio

n p

eso

s)

Accidents Air pollution

Climate change high scenario Noise

Congestion (delay cost)

BAU ASI

CO-BENEFITS

15

Achieving the 0.33tCO2/person/year target will be difficult, but

possible. Time sensitive action is needed.

There is possible significant carbon reduction for the entire

country (esp. Metro Manila)

if suitable policies are implemented strictly

if quality data are available to support the analysis/evaluations

Implementation of policies is very dependent on the assumption

of good governance

Reference: Outcomes of Philippines Stakeholder Workshop, 2013 16

Climate Change Commission (CCC) said that GHG mitigation is

already in the national agenda.

However, they have no tools or methodology (e.g., NAMAs) for

quantitative assessment of mitigation.

DOTC already has a National Implementation Plan (NIP) for

transport and environment. NIP identifies mitigation options.

But there is no specific tool or methodology yet to enable the agency to

evaluate plans and programs at strategic and project levels.

Reference: Outcomes of Philippines Stakeholder Workshop, 2013 17

It is important to explain the benefits of the CO2 reduction using

the co-benefits approach.

The stakeholder workshop in Manila showed less appreciation or

concern about CO2 compared with other factors such mobility,

pollution and safety.

Health benefits due to CO2 reduction is easier understood or

appreciated.

Economic benefits are not limited to carbon reduction but

include benefits from associated concepts or parameters like

road safety, air pollution, noise and climate change.

18

Thank you!

Domo Arigatou Gozaimasu!

Maraming salamat!

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