The  California  Electorate:  Demographics  and  

Engagement

Lisa García Bedolla University of California, Berkeley

The  Engagement  Gap 62%

17%

6% 11%

44%

34%

6%

14%

23%

60%

3%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Non-Latino Whites Latinos Blacks Asians

Likely Voters Population Unregistered Adults

SOURCES: Likely voters – 2014 PPIC Statewide Poll; Population – U.S. Census

Projected  Adult  Population,  2010-­‐‑2050,  by  Ethnorace

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

White, Non-Latino Black Mixed Race Asian Latino

Source: California State Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, Report P-3, “State and County Total Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity and Detailed Age.”

California’s  New  Electorate,  2030 Non-Latino

Whites 30%

Latinos 53%

African Americans

5%

Asian/Pacific Islander

12%

Mixed Race 4%

70% of

California’s new voters in 2030 will be of color

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Chico

FresnoMadera

Stockton

Monterey

Riverside

San Diego

Sacramento

Bakersfield

Los Angeles

Santa Barbara

San Francisco

San Luis Obispo

CA PipelineUnder 18 Citizens by Zip within CA Counties

Under 18 Citizen Counts0 - 5000

5000 - 10000

10000 - 15000

15000 - 20000

20000+

Missing Data

¯

Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips.

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Chico

Fresno

Madera

Stockton

Monterey

Sacramento

San Francisco

Northern CA Hotspots of Early Voters by Zip:Whites

Early Voter PercentagesMuch lower than average

Lower than average

Average

Higher than average

Much higher than average

Missing Data

County Boundaries

¯

Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips. (b) A hot spot is defined as an area that is overperforming relative to state averages for whites,whereas a cold spot reflects an underperforming area. In the legend, much higher than average = more than 1.96 standard deviations above the norm; higher than average = more than 1 standard deviations above the norm; average = at the mean level and under 1 standard deviation above or below the state average; lower than average = 1 to 1.96 standard deviations below the norm; and much lower than average = more than 1.96 standard deviations below the norm. (c) Map reflects patterns of early voter concentrations using within county estimates. County findings are presented by Californiaregions for summary purposes. Source: Proportions of early voters are based on data obtained from Political Data Incorporated (PDI) (downloadedon June 1, 2014).

0 – 5,0005,000 – 10,00010,000 – 15,000

15,000 – 20,00020,000+Missing DataCounty Boundaries

Number of Youth

Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips. (b) A hot spot is defined as an area that is overperforming relative to state averages, whereas a cold spot reflects an underperforming area. In the legend, much higher than average = more than 1.5 standard deviations above the norm; higher than average = more than 1 standard deviations above the norm; average = at the mean level and under 1 standard deviation above or below the state average; lower than average = 1 to 1.5 standard deviations below the norm; and much lower than average = more than 1.5 standard deviations below the norm. Counts represent number of individuals in each geographical unit of analysis who are under 18 citizens (native born or naturalized foreign born) This map assumes that the maturing population is constant and does not account for mobility or mortality. Source: Counts of youth are based on data obtained from the 2012 American Community Survey 5-year estimates.

Hotspots of Youth Entering Electorate 2012-2030by Zip Code

Key  Findings •  Latinos and Asian Americans less likely to register to

vote, regardless of income

•  Where people register varies across groups

•  Registration and voting rates vary significantly

across the state, and across ethnoracial groups

within geographic regions

•  Electoral reforms like early voting will not have the

same effect on all of California’s voters

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Chico

FresnoMadera

Stockton

Monterey

Riverside

San Diego

Sacramento

Bakersfield

Los Angeles

Santa Barbara

San Francisco

San Luis Obispo

Voting Propensity by Zip:Overall

Registered PercentagesMuch lower than average

Lower than average

Average

Higher than average

Much higher than average

Missing Data

¯

Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips. (b) A hot spot is defined as an area that is overperforming relative to state averages for whites,whereas a cold spot reflects an underperforming area. In the legend, much higher than average = more than 1.5 standard deviations above the norm;higher than average = more than 1 standard deviations above the norm; average = at the mean level and under 1 standard deviation above or belowthe state average; lower than average = 1 to 1.5 standard deviations below the norm; and much lower than average = more than 1.5 standarddeviations below the norm. (c) 1.96 standard deviations is inapplicable because the categories would not conform to the 0-100% range. Source: Registration propensities are based on registrars' data aggregated by Political Data Incorporated (download date June 1, 2014) and on 2012 American Community Survey 5-year estimates.

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Chico

Fresno

Madera

Stockton

Monterey

Sacramento

San Francisco

Northern CA Hotspots of Early Voters by Zip:Whites

Early Voter PercentagesMuch lower than average

Lower than average

Average

Higher than average

Much higher than average

Missing Data

County Boundaries

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Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips. (b) A hot spot is defined as an area that is overperforming relative to state averages for whites,whereas a cold spot reflects an underperforming area. In the legend, much higher than average = more than 1.96 standard deviations above the norm; higher than average = more than 1 standard deviations above the norm; average = at the mean level and under 1 standard deviation above or below the state average; lower than average = 1 to 1.96 standard deviations below the norm; and much lower than average = more than 1.96 standard deviations below the norm. (c) Map reflects patterns of early voter concentrations using within county estimates. County findings are presented by Californiaregions for summary purposes. Source: Proportions of early voters are based on data obtained from Political Data Incorporated (PDI) (downloadedon June 1, 2014).

Much lower than averageLower than averageAverage

Higher than averageMuch higher than averageMissing DataCounty Boundaries

Voting Percentages

Notes: (a) Data are presented for CA Zips. (b) A hot spot is defined as an area that is overperforming relative to state averages, whereas a cold spot reflects an underperforming area. In the legend, much higher than average = more than 1.5 standard deviations above the norm; higher than average = more than 1 standard deviations above the norm; average = at the mean level and under 1 standard deviation above or below the state average; lower than average = 1 to 1.5 standard deviations below the norm; and much lower than average = more than 1.5 standard deviations below the norm. 1.96 standard deviations are inapplicable because the categories do not conform to the 0-100% range. Source: Registration propensities are based on registrars’ data aggregated by Political Data Incorporated (download date June 1, 2014) and on 2012 American Community Survey 5-year estimates.

Voting Propensity by Zip Code,Overall

Policy  Recommendations   •  A representative electorate requires collective

commitment, effort, and outreach

•  State leaders and elections officials need to be

proactive to ensure eligible voters have access to

the ballot o  Registration needs to be as “automatic” as possible

o  Polling places need to be accessible in terms of language access and

access for voters with disabilities

o  Voters need to be educated about their eligibility and reforms such as

same day registration or early voting

o  “Overperforming” jurisdictions need to be studied to determine the

reasons underlying their success