The Transformation Begins:European Agriculture

Before Economic Growth

• Stagnant European GDP p.c. before 1500• Primarily an agricultural economy 80-90% of

population works in agriculture.• Approximately (Current $) $500 per capita.

– What does this mean in terms of a standard of living?– Most of population lives in villages or small

farmsteads.– Similar to poorest regions of today’s world

• But! By 1700, nearly $1000 per capita.

Western European GDP per capita in 1990 International Geary-Khamis dollars (Source: Maddison, 2005)

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Household Expenditures---circa 1500

• Housing

• Clothing

• Food---80 to 90% of all expenditure– Hunger is not uncommon, nor is famine.

Housing

• Houses are one or two rooms

• Wooden, stone or wattle and daub with a thatched roof.

• Few barns---animals in house---problems of mice, rats and disease.

A Well-to-do Peasant in Middle Ages (poor Irish peasants 19th century)

Clothing• Typically, most people have two sets of

clothing, one for daily wear and the other for special days.

• Loose-fitting, woven; knitting not invented• If lucky they have an under-garmet of

linen.• Most clothing is woolen, only the wealthy

few might have some silk.• Leather shoes if they can afford them---

hence wooden or bast shoes.

Food—80-90% of Household BudgetTypical Northern European Diet

• Most important: cereals-grains-”corn”– Bread of rye or barley, sometimes wheat---

heavy, full of chaff and grit.– Porridges or gruels– Beer and ale

• Legumes (peas and beans) some fruit and vegetables

• Meat and fish relatively rare---mostly pork, beef and game for the wealthy (top 5% of population.

Was this a good diet?The Happy Peasants of Breughel

(1525-1569)

Measuring Health• Professor Robert Fogel of the University of

Chicago and 1993 Nobel Prize Winner---started field of Biometrics.

• How many calories do you need to survive?• Basal Metabolic Rate (BMR) is total energy

requirement that individual needs to maintain the body at complete rest and sustain vital functions but no work. – For contemporary 25 year old U.S. male BMR

is 1300-1400 calories per day. – If sedentary, some movement but no work, it

is 2300 calories. – For moderate activity, need 2750 calories

Caloric Consumption in pre-modern Europe

• We lack information on the period before 1700.• Average Daily Caloric Intake

– (Remember: Average American 25 year old requires 2750 for low level work)

• • England France• 1700 2365• 1750 2508 2290• 1800 3079• What’s the implication??????

Heights and the Standard of Living

• Caloric Intake at early ages influences growth– Height: the easiest to measure, the larger the

body the more calories that are required for maintenance

– Resistance to Disease– Intelligence

– So…what is the average height and weight of 20-29 year old Americans today?

Average Americans in 2008

• Males ages 20-29– 5’ 10” and 191 lbs., requiring 2750 calories for

moderate activity, 3066 active, and 3608 for very active

• Females ages 20-29– 5’ 5” and 161 lbs need 2274 calories for

moderate activity and 2577 for very active.

How Tall Were 18th century Europeans?

• In 1775 English males averaged 5’ 4” and their weight was 134 lbs.

• In France (3rd quarter of 18th century) average male height was 5’ 3 ½” and 110 pounds.

• In Norway and Sweden, 5’ 5”

Gillray: “French Liberty and English Slavery”

Consumption Unequally Distributed• Henry VIII was 6’ 2” and

heavy…..the ruling class were bigger!

• In France the bottom 20% of the labor force did not consume enough for 3 hours of light labor, while the bottom 20% of the English labor force had only enough calories for 6 hours of light work.

• Being fat---represented health, hence Brueghel’s paintings.

• But also Height was correlated with Health and Life Expectancy in populations.

Life Expectancy in Years

• Male English Landowners White American• Born 1425-1450 Males Projected• 2003• Age• 0 32.8 75.3• 10 34.5 66.9• 20 27.7 57.2• 30 24.1 47.8• 40 20.4 37.6• 60 13.7 20.5

European Population in 1500

• Low Incomes• Meagerly Nourished• Short Heights• Lowered Resistance to Disease• Shorter Expected Lifetimes

• DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME HIGHLY UNEQUAL

Land and Power in Medieval Europe• King “owned” all property and “gave” land to

tenants---nobles who in turn would give small parts to their tenants---knights---who in turn would give it to their tenants---peasants.

• Basic unit owned by a knight and the basic unit of economic organization was the manor

• Tenants owed their lords a mix of labor services and obligations, in-kind payments and money.

• The king was the state, few taxes in modern sense.

The Social and Economic Hierarchy

The Domesday Book 1080Oxfordshire

Shillings Pence

1 pound (£)= 20shillings (s) = 240 pence (d)

And then 1shilling = 12 pence

Markets Not Free

• Market for land was small, difficult to sell, complex of rights to land to crop, graze, glean, hunt, etc.

• Labor not free. Limited ability to sell labor. Serfs and freedmen. Obliged to stay on manor .

Basic Economic Unit—the Manor

Three Course Rotation (wheat, barley or rye, fallow)

Open Fields

Scattered Strips

The Village of Shilbottle

Agricultural Systems, circa 1300

The Manor House

Ploughing---Vincent van Gogh ( 1889)

The Sower---van Gogh, 1881

Harvesters---van Gogh, 1880s

Flailing and Gathering Hay (Vincent van Gogh, 1880s)

La Meridienne---Millet

The Gleaners---Millet

The Tithe Barn

Medieval Economy• Agriculture is dominant sector—80-90% of labor

force and output.• Grain is center of agricultural economy.• Manor is the basic unit of output.• Labor tied to the land, serfs and freemen owe

labor (corvée), in-kind and money payments. Lord of manor dispenses justice offers protection and controls various economic rights

• Open fields organization for the village’s production.

• Two Course and then Three Course Rotation of Crops

Medieval Agricultural Innovation• Switch from oxen to horses

– Horses can pull more. Cannot yoke the same way. Invention of the padded collar and horse shoes---appear around 800 A.D.

– Ox: pulling 120 lbs moved 2.4 feet per second or 288 foot/lbs per second. Horse: pulling 120 lbs. moves at 3.6 feet per second or 432 foot/lbs per second.

– Horses require special feed—oats. Moves towards 3 course rotation with oats.

– Ramsey Abbey in England 1125 A.D. 40 oxen and 2 horses, 1160 25 oxen and 8 horses. By 13th century only horses in use in Normandy (France). Very slow adoption.

• Heavy-wheeled plough. Cuts heavy wet, clay soils of Northern Europe. Team of 8 oxen or 4 horses to pull. A long furrow, changes shape of fields. Combined with 3 course rotation.

• Green ploughing in 13th century----plough under clover and peas that add nitrogen to the soil.

• More sheep, wool, food, parchment and fertilizer• Productivity up…..extensive to intensive agriculture in

Northern Europe.

Effect of the Black Death

• Followed Great Famine of 1315-1322

• Worldwide pandemic---killed perhaps 75 million people

• Spreads from ships coming to Italy from Middle East

• Born by rat-carried fleas, infected by Yersinia pestis

Population of England

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The Problem Remains: Low Productivity in Agriculture

• Land under cultivation in Western Europe about the same it is today---but a fraction of the population

• Capital: Ploughs, oxen, horses expensive, cost of capital high

• No pesticides or fertilizer except manure.• Labor not mobile, poor, little education, low caloric intake

• Bishopric of Winchester England 1209-1349, Yield per seed of grain Maximum Minimum

• Wheat 5.3 2.6• Barley 5.6 2.8• Oats 3.8 1.8

What’s the Solution?----everything seems costly?

Y = f (L, K, N)

Enclosure?

A B C D E A C B D A F

A B C

D E F

Scattered versus Consolidated

Technically, what needs to be done to enclose?

• Pasture, forest and waste and communal lands are not assigned

• Communal rights including gleaning and grazing and foraging eliminated

• Scattered strips are consolidated.• Need to reorganize drainage—large

investment• Need fencing to identify fields and prevent

cattle from wandering—large investment

Why Not Enclose?

A B C D E A C B D A F

A B C

D E F

Scattered versus Consolidated

Drought Loss

Flood Loss

Drought Loss

Flood Loss

Return and Risk

Risk Aversion

The Politics of Consolidation in England

• Common Law: All households in the village must unanimously agree to the division of the land. All households—tenants, cottages even those with only minor rights. Veto power for each household.

• Special Bill in Parliament. Alls 4/5 of landowners to vote for division. Poorer household cannot vote.

Prisoners’ Dilemma

Agree

Agree Veto

Veto

SMITH

JONES

280 J, 280 S 300 J, 260 S

260 J, 300 S 240 J, 240 S

Investment Cost

• Even for landlords. Drainage and Fencing represents a substantial requirement investment.

• Interest rates are high in the middle ages.

• When interest rates decline, enclosures increase.

Declining Cost of Capital

Percentage of Arable Land Enclosed in England and Wales

• 1500 45%

• 1600 47%

• 1700 69%

• 1800 82%

• 1914 94%

Politics

• English Civil War 1642-1649• King is beheaded• Parliament rules—controlled by landlords and

large merchants• Restoration 1660• 1688---the Glorious Revolution• Parliament in control of finances---controls

taxation, expenditure and debt• Stabilization of finances and the fall in the

interest rate on government bonds

• And what about other countries???? France?

Comparison of Two Villages:

Normandy and Lorraine

France?

• Circa 1750, yields are 25% lower than in Britain• Comparison of two villages

– Normandy: Number of strips reduced from 1386 in 1742 to 640 in 1666. Larger holdings, more marl, manure, vetch, peas, and fodder. Modest reduction in number of strips. Larger fields, higher yields

– Lorraine: Intendant of the Province La Galaizière conducts an experiment of consolidating the scattered strips. Rents (output) rise by 32%. Key problem grazing rights. Everyone in village and neighboring village has right to graze on harvested fields and hence a right to veto consolidation. Intendant provides a subsidy of 32,000 livres to buy out these rights. But value of increase in rents on 31,000!

French Revolution--1789

• Abolition in 1789 of all feudal rights----lords lose all their rights.

• Common field rights restricted to the villages, which retain right to enclose or keep open fields.

• Very slow transition to enclosure. No expropriation.

• Enclosure completed today but size of farms is smaller