the south african trade industry...the trade industry generated r3,17 trillion in income during 2015...
TRANSCRIPT
The South
African trade
industryAn overview2012 – 2015
Dr Pali Lehohla
Stats SA
26 October 2017
Retail
Wholesale
Demographic
dividend
Motor trade
Accommodation
Food &
beverages
Detailed data for five divisions in trade are now available
• Large sample surveys
providing data for 2015
• Detailed statistics on:
• Income
• Commodities sold
• Concentration ratios
• Expenditure
• Profit margins
• Employment
• Capital expenditure
Trade
industry
The trade industry is responsible for 15% of SA economic production
Shares of
nominal GDP
2016
14,2%
15,0%
12,0%
12,5%
13,0%
13,5%
14,0%
14,5%
15,0%
15,5%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
The trade industry contribution to GDP has grown slightly over the years
Income
The trade industry generated R3,17 trillion in income during 2015
1,13
1,331,49
1,56
2,39
3,17
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
2005 2006 2007 2009 2012 2015
R t
rilli
on
That’s just over R100 000 generated per second!
Wholesale52%
Retail26%
Motor trade19%
Food & beverages
2%
Accommodation1%
Wholesale trade generated just over half of total income in 2015
Total income
R3,17 trillion
Percentages have been rounded and may not sum to 100% Only includes formal business activities
R2 106 025m (66%)
R392 234m (12%)
R674 071m (21%)
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
Large enterprises Medium enterprises Small and micro enterprises
R m
illio
nLarge enterprises generated two-thirds of the R3,17 trillion in income
2015
Building material & hardware
32%
Machinery & equipment
22%
Food & beverages
19%
Other27%
What are the most popular sources of income in each industry (2015)?
Wholesale
Food & beverages
42%
Clothing16%
Medical & cosmetics
11%
Other32%
Retail
New vehicles
33%
Fuel29%
Parts18%
Used vehicles
17%
Other4%
Motor*
Food and snacks
81%
Non-alcoholic drinks
9%
Wines5%
Other5%
Food & beveragesAccommodation
*New and used vehicles includes both retail and wholesale sales
Cape Town14%
Johannesburg14%
Tshwane9%
eThekwini7%
Other districts51%
49%
Accommodation: almost half of available rooms* are in five cities
Eku-
Rhuleni
4%
*The unit of accommodation available to be charged out to guests; for example, a powered site in a caravan park or a room in a hotel.
Motor trade: vehicle sales* – number of units sold in 2012 and 2015
*Only includes retail sales; excludes wholesale sales of vehicles
Total: 412 819 Total: 384 860 Total: 412 964 Total: 378 499
Concentration
ratios
What do concentration ratios tell us?
If an industry is dominated by
a few large players, then it’s
regarded as monopolistic.
This can hinder competition
and present a barrier to new
entrants into the market
Proportion of income earned by the top 10 largest enterprises
Retail and accommodation are dominated by a few large companies
15%
15%
21%
38%
42%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Food & beverages
Wholesale
Motor
Accommodation
Retail
The motor trade industry has become less concentrated over time
Proportion of income earned by the top 10 largest enterprises
33%26% 23% 21%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2006 2009 2012 2015
And so has accommodation
Proportion of income earned by the top 10 largest enterprises
55%50%
44%38%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007 2009 2012 2015
Concentration in retail trade, however, has increased over time
Proportion of income earned by the top 10 largest enterprises
39% 40% 41% 42%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2009 2012 2015
Expenditure
A total of R3,09 trillion was spent by the trade industries in 2015
Wholesale52%
Retail26%
Motor19%
Food & beverages
2%
Accommodation1%
Total expenditure
R3,09 trillion
Percentages have been rounded and may not sum to 100%
What did each division spend money on?
17%
50%
85%
75%
83%
24%
20%
7%
10%
6%
58%
30%
9%
16%
11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Accommodation
Food & beverages
Motor
Retail
Wholesale
Purchases Employment costs Other expenditure
Profit margin
The profit margin rose in 2015 to 2,6%
1,8%1,9% 1,9%
1,6%
2,6%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pro
fit m
arg
in
Profit margin for the entire trade industry (net loss/profit after tax as a percentage of turnover)
Casino income contributed to accommodation’s high profit margin
Profit margin (net loss/profit after tax)
2,0%
2,0%
2,5%
2,6%
2,9%
9,9%
0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0%
Motor trade
Food and beverages
Wholesale trade
All trades
Retail trade
Accommodation
In fact, casinos contribute just over a third of total accommodation income
Accommodation 59%
Casino facilities
34%
Functions 4%
Other services
3%
2015
Employment
Photo: http://www.mediaclub.co.za, Chris Kirchhoff
The trade industry is the third largest employer in the formal business sector
Community services
27%
Business services
23%
Trade 22%
Manufacturing 12%
Other16%
Source: Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES), June 2017 (Table B)
The trade industry employed 1,9 million people in 2015
0,3 millionNumber of jobs
1
2
Retail – 44% (812 104 people)
3
4
5
Retail is the largest employer in the trade industry (2015)
Wholesale – 26% (490 037 people)
Motor – 15% (270 440 people)
Food & beverages – 9% (174 601 people)
Accommodation – 6% (109 196 people)
1
2
3
4
5
1,9 million
people
28%
34%
56%
57%
59%
47%
72%
66%
44%
43%
41%
53%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Motor
Wholesale
Accommodation
Retail
Food & beverages
All trades
Female Male
Female employees outnumber male employees in three divisions
2015
But employees in those three divisions earn the lowest salaries
Average income for all employees
R 174 135
R 126 151
R 84 380R 87 852
R 47 037
R 202 823
R 146 905
R 93 632 R 91 716
R 60 761
R 0
R 50 000
R 100 000
R 150 000
R 200 000
R 250 000
Wholesale Motor Retail Accommodation Food & beverages
2012
2015
Income vs employment (2015)
52%
26%
19%
2% 1%
26%
44%
15%
9%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Wholesale trade Retail trade industry Motor trade industry Food and beverages Accommodation
Income Employment
Income vs employment: large enterprises (2015)
70,3% 70,1%67,0%
61,7%
41,3%
50,6%
66,0%
40,3% 40,0% 39,3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Accommodation Retail Wholesale Motor Food & beverages
Income Employment
Capital
expenditure
Wholesale39%
Retail32%
Motor15%
Food & beverages
4%
Accommodation11%
Wholesale spend the most on acquiring new assets (2015)
Total capital
expenditure
R49,9 billion
Thank you