IMPLEMENTING STRUCTURAL REFORMS WITH THE OECD: THE

ROLE OF EDUCATION AND SKILLS IN PROMOTING INCLUSIVE GROWTH

Dirk Van Damme Head, Innovation and Measuring Progress Division,

OECD/EDU 23 June 2014

• Hesitant global economic recovery, but – Unemployment remains very high: >46 million

unemployed in OECD countries – The crisis has reinforced increase in income

inequality: income of richest 10% is 9.5 times that of poorest 10% (increase of 30% in 25 years)

Inclusive Growth: promoting inclusion and boosting long-term growth

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• Hesitant global economic recovery, but – Inequality increases in many other domains as

well: employment, health, education, housing, not only affecting overall quality of life, but also future economic growth and social cohesion

• Multidimensionality of inclusive growth

• Economic growth is important, but not sufficient for society’s progress if the growth dividend is not shared in a fair way

Inclusive Growth: promoting inclusion and boosting long-term growth

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Productivity Innovation

Human capital

Education

The role of education and skills in fostering growth – the standard view

GROWTH Income Competitiveness

4

Average number of years of schooling of the adult population

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

IND IDN CHN TUR BRA SAU MEX ZAF KOR ESP ITA RUS ARG FRA CAN JPN GBR AUS DEU USA

2010 1990 1970

Emerging countries catching up in education in quantitative terms

5

• But the average levels of educational attainment tell only part of the story, and a very minor one – Average skills level adult population only very

weakly related to economic output

6

The role of education and skills in fostering growth – the standard view

7

Average numeracy score unrelated to economic output

Australia Austria Canada

Czech Rep

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders UK

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

240 250 260 270 280 290

GDP per capita

Mean numeracy score

PIAAC 2012

• For social progress, the equitable distribution is more important – Equality of opportunity to education – Equitable learning outcomes – A well-balanced skills distribution

• Especially at the low ends of the distribution

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The role of education and skills in fostering inclusive growth

The role of education and skills in fostering inclusive growth

High social inequality

Unequal family

economic & cultural capital

Unequal education

opportunities

Wide distribution in learning outcomes

Unequal skills distribution

Low social mobility

Education Skills 9

The role of education and skills in fostering inclusive growth

High social inequality

Unequal family

economic & cultural capital

Unequal education

opportunities

Wide distribution in learning outcomes

Unequal skills distribution

Low social mobility

Education Skills 10

Australia Austria

Belgium Canada

Chile

Czech Rep. Denmark

Estonia

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Iceland Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Rep.

Slovenia

Spain Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

US

Singapore

Hong Kong-China Chinese Taipei

Macao-China Liechtenstein

Viet Nam

Latvia

Russian Fed. Lithuania

Croatia

Serbia Romania

Bulgaria United Arab Emirates Kazakhstan

Thailand Malaysia

PISA 2012 Shanghai-China

Socially equitable distribution of learning

opportunities

Strong socio-economic impact on student

performance

The role of education and skills in fostering inclusive growth

High social inequality

Unequal family

economic & cultural capital

Unequal education

opportunities

Wide distribution in learning outcomes

Unequal skills distribution

Low social mobility

Education Skills 12

Skills inequality relates to income inequality

13

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Rep Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany Ireland

Italy Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders

UK

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

55 60 65 70 75

Gini coefficient

Score-point difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles on the numeracy scale

PIAAC 2012

Especially, the share of low-skilled relates strongly to social inequality

Australia

Austria

Canada

Czech Rep Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany Ireland

Italy Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders

UK

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Gini coefficient

Percentage of adults scoring below Level 2 on the numeracy scale 14

PIAAC 2012

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While the share of high-skilled is positively related to economic output

Australia

Austria Canada

Czech Rep

Denmark

Estonia

Finland Germany

Ireland

Italy Japan

Korea

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Slovak Rep

Spain

Sweden

United States

Flanders UK

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

3 6 9 12 15 18 21

GDP per capita

Percentage adults scoring Level 4 or 5 on the numeracy scale

PIAAC 2012

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

Good to excellenthealth

Being employedHigh levels ofinterpersonal

trust

Participation involunteeractivities

High levels ofpolitical efficacy

High wages

Low skills impact negatively on social outcomes and can generate huge costs

scoring at Level 4/5 compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below Odds ratio

16

PIAAC 2012

• National differences in connecting education and skills distribution to social and economic outcomes are huge

• Hence, policies play a powerful role and can impact on each step in the process

• There is a lot of room for improvement towards inclusive growth

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But policies can have an impact on education systems improving quality and equity

But policies can have an impact on education systems improving quality and equity

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Education policies

But policies can have an impact on education systems improving quality and equity

Germany

Netherlands

Mexico

Sweden

OECD average 2003

Uruguay

Australia

Belgium

Austria

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Finland

France

Greece

Hungary

Iceland

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

New Zealand

Norway

Poland Portugal

Slovak Republic

Spain

Switzerland United States

Brazil

Hong Kong-China

Indonesia Latvia Macao-China Russian Federation Thailand

Tunisia

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-8-6-4-202468

Annu

alise

d ch

ange

in m

athe

mat

ics p

erfo

rman

ce

Change in the percentage of variation in mathematics performance explained by the PISA index of economic, social and cultural status (2012 - 2003)

Equity improved Equity deteriorated

Performance im

proved Perform

ance deteriorated

19

PISA 2012 - 2003

The OECD can help! Tailored policy advice

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The OECD can help! Education GPS: User-friendly knowledge management

http://gpseducation.oecd.org/

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• Making the analysis and identifying the policy challenges

• Helping to set the objectives of reform • Assisting in the national dialogue to foster the

acceptance of reform and its implementation • Monitoring outcomes • Identifying next steps

The OECD can help! The case of education reform in Mexico

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• Making the analysis and identifying the policy challenges

• Helping to set the objectives of reform • Assisting in the national dialogue to foster the

acceptance of reform and its implementation • Monitoring outcomes • Identifying next steps

The OECD can help! The case of education reform in Mexico

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A. Estudiantes: mejores resultados para todos Equidad y calidad: Promover la mejora educativa para niños de contextos socioeconómicos en desventaja y de poblaciones indígenas. Preparar a los alumnos para el futuro: Promover mayor cobertura de educación media superior y asegurar un uso efectivo de cualificaciones en el mercado laboral.

B. Instituciones: mejorar la calidad de las escuelas Mejora escolar: Profesionalizar la enseñanza y el liderazgo escolar atrayendo, desarrollando y reteniendo a los mejores candidatos a través de procesos sistemáticos y transparentes. Evaluar para mejorar los resultados de los alumnos: Proveer coherencia a través del sistema, construyendo capacidad y equilibrando las funciones de mejora y rendición de cuentas.

C. Instituciones: gestionar el sistema educativo Gobierno: Lograr un balance entre gobiernos federales y estatales, asegurando la capacidad y el involucramiento efectivo de diferentes actores. Financiación: Establecer un financiamiento más transparente y equitativo que alcance a aquellas escuelas y alumnos que más lo necesitan.

El marco de análisis y retos en México

Contexto: Política educativa en perspectiva

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• OECD will continue its work on Inclusive Growth – http://www.oecd.org/inclusive-growth/

• The OECD Directorate for Education and Skills (EDU) will structurally include work on Inclusive Growth in its 2015-16 draft work programme – The Centre for Educational Research and

Innovation (CERI) will have a project on ‘How skills contribute to Inclusive Growth’

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OECD’s work on Inclusive Growth

Thank you !

dirk.vandamme@oecd.org www.oecd.org/edu/

twitter @VanDammeEDU

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