world bank.uganda promoting inclusive growth.2012

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World Bank.Uganda Promoting Inclusive Growth.2012

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  • 1.Public Disclosure AuthorizedReport No. 67377-UGReport No. 67377-UGUgandaPromoting Inclusive GrowthTransforming Farms, Human Capital and Economic GeographySynthesis ReportFebruary 2012 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPoverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit 2Africa RegionUgandaPromoting Inclusive Growth Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure AuthorizedDocument of the World Bank

2. Government Fiscal YearJuly 1 June 30 Currency = Uganda Shillings (UGS)Weights and Measures Metric System ABBREVIATION AND ACRONYMSABEKAlternative Basic Education for KaramojaASWGAgricultural Sector Working GroupBTVET Business, Technical, Vocational Education and TrainingCEM Country Economic MemorandumDRC Democratic Republic of CongoDSIPDevelopment Strategy and Investment PlanEAC East African CommunityFAO Food and Agricultural OrganizationGDP Gross Domestic ProductGIS Geographic Information SystemsGIZ Gesellschaft fr Internationale ZusammenarbeitHDI Human Development IndexHEHousehold EnterpriseIASSA International Arctic Social Science AssociationICT Information and Communication TechnologyIDP Internally Displaced PersonIFPRI International Food Policy Research InstituteILO International Labor OrganizationIASSA International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLFP Labor Force ParticipationLFPRLabor Force Participation RateMAAIF Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industries and FisheriesMDG Millennium Development GoalMoFPEDMinistry of Finance, Planning, and Economic DevelopmentMoPSMinistry of Public ServiceNAADS National Agricultural Advisory ServicesNAARI National Arid Agricultural InstituteNARONational Agricultural Research OrganizationNDP National Development PlanNGO Non Governmental OrganizationNDP National Development PlanPEAPPoverty Eradication Action PlanPMA Plan for Modernisation of AgriculturePMU Project Monitoring UnitPSFUPrivate Sector Foundation UgandaRAI Rural Accessibility IndexRIT Restructuring Implementation TeamSACCO Savings and Credit Cooperative OrganizationSME Small and Medium Enterprise 3. SPAM Spatial Crop Allocation ModelSSASub-Saharan AfricaUBOS Uganda Bureau of StatisticsUNHS Uganda National Household SurveyUPEUniversal Primary EducationUPPETUniversal Post Primary Education TrainingUSAIDUnited States Agency for International DevelopmentUVQF Uganda Vocational Qualifications FrameworkWDRWorld Development ReportVice President:Obiageli EzekwesiliCountry Director:Mercy TembonSector Director: Marcelo GiugaleSector Manager:Humberto LopezTask Team Leader:Rachel K. SebuddeThis report is prepared with financial support from the United NationsDevelopment Programme, Uganda; the United Kingdoms Department forInternational Development Trust Fund; the Diagnostic Facility for SharedGrowth Trust Fund that is supported by the governments of Denmark and theNetherlands and the Belgian Partnership for Poverty Reduction Trust Fund. 4. TABLE OF CONTENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................................. iPREAMBLE ................................................................................................................................................ iiiSUMMARY OF MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................................... vi1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 1 Structure of the Report.......................................................................................................................... 3 Data Sources, Challenges, and Recommendations for Future Analysis ............................................... 4PART A: PAST GROWTH, GEOGRAPHY OF PRODUCTION, AND GEOGRAPHY OFLIVING STANDARDS .............................................................................................................................. 52. GROWTH AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION ACROSS SECTORS AND GEOGRAPHY ...................................................................................................................................... 6 The Macro Economy and GrowthEvolution over the recent past..................................................... 6 Structural Transformation is under way .............................................................................................. 93. POVERTY TRENDS AND GEOGRAPHY OF LIVING STANDARDS ........................................ 14 Poverty Trend over the Past Two Decades ......................................................................................... 14 How did Poverty Decline? .................................................................................................................. 16 Geography of Living Standards: Inequality Persists .......................................................................... 17PART B: TRANSFORMING ACROSS SECTORS: FARMS AND HUMAN CAPITAL ................ 214. TRANSFORMING FARMS: AGRICULTURAL COMMERCIALIZATION ................................. 22 Prospects for Agricultural Commercialization ................................................................................... 26 Proposed Policy Recommendations ................................................................................................... 29 Addressing the Farm Level Constraints.............................................................................................. 30 Addressing the Beyond-the-Farm-Gate Constraints ........................................................................... 31 Addressing the Agricultural Institutional Challenges ......................................................................... 325. TRANSFORMING HUMAN CAPITAL............................................................................................ 35 Placing Labor in Past Growth ............................................................................................................. 35 Education and Skilling Matter ............................................................................................................ 36 The Challenge of building Ugandas Human Capital ......................................................................... 37 Towards a Strategy for Human Capital Transformation .................................................................... 43 The Strategy for Human Capital Transformation ............................................................................... 46PART C: TRANSFORMING ACROSS SPACE: TERRITORIAL INTEGRATION AND RURAL-URBAN TRANSFORMATION............................................................................................................... 496. TERRITORIAL INTEGRATION ...................................................................................................... 50 Integrating Through Factor Mobility .................................................................................................. 51 People Mobility for Prosperity ........................................................................................................... 51 Fluidity of Land for Prosperity of People ........................................................................................... 54Integrating through Mobility of Products and Technology .................................................................. 55 5. Sustaining Integration with Growth ..................................................................................................... 56 Having Policies for Integrating Leading and Lagging Areas ............................................................... 57Policy of Broadening Coverage, Quality, and Accessibility of Social Services ................................. 57Land Reforms for more Integration .................................................................................................... 59Targeted Intervention in Northern Uganda ........................................................................................ 62Overall Policy for Integration ............................................................................................................ 637. URBANIZATION: PLANNING FOR THE REALITY ...................................................................... 66 Tracking Ugandas Urban Trail............................................................................................................ 66 Weighing the Benefits and Costs of Urban Growth ............................................................................. 67 A Strategy for Efficient Urbanization in Uganda ................................................................................. 71PART D: CONCLUSIONS AND SUMMARY RECOMMENDATIONS........................................... 768. REFRAMING THE DEBATE FOR GROWTH INCLUSIVENESS .................................................. 77BIBLIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................................................................... 83APPENDIX: More than Meets the Eye: Comparability of Labor Data from the Integrated HouseholdSurvey 1992/93 and the Uganda National Household Surveys 14 ........................................................... 87BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................................................... 102 List of BoxesBox 3.1. Is it Time to Reconsider? A Closer Look at Ugandas Official Poverty Figures ............ 15Box 4.1. A Multitude of Agricultural Development Policies and Programs Pursued over the Past Two Decades..................................................................................................................... 23Box 5.1. Some Examples of Existing Skills Training and Development Programs ...................... 39Box 5.2. Four Lessons from the Asian Tigers Development Model of Human Capital Formation Education and skills strategy matched the stage of trans

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