mozambique promoting rural development for inclusive growth

MOZAMBIQUEPromoting Rural Development for Inclusive Growth

-- Could Chinas Experiences Be Relevant?

Guo LiThe World Bank, Pretoria Office

Growth Seminar , MaputoFebruary 9 -11, 2011

*

Brief introduction

Important Aspects of a Rural Development Strategy and Recent Findings on African Agriculture

Chinas Experiences in the Past Three Decades

Conclusions

*Mozambique Growth Seminar: China Rural Development

Why rural and agricultural development is important?

Supplying labour to the rest of economy;Producing low cost food to keep wages down for workers in the industrial sector;Producing fibre and other crops for production in other parts of the economy;Supplying commodities that can be exported and earn foreign exchange;Raising rural incomes Therefore, rural and agricultural development is a strong option for poverty reduction, enhancing food security, and stimulating growth in other parts of the economy.

*Mozambique Growth Seminar: China Rural Development

*Mozambique Growth Seminar: China Rural DevelopmentRelationship between agricultural and economic growths in 93 developing countries, 1980-1998 (Huang et al., 2002)

Chart1

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-8.5

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5.4

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4.5

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2

4.1

2.2

5.3

2.5

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-4.7

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3.3

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4.8

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4.2

4.4

4.3

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0.1

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1.9

4.2

5.5

0.1

4.8

3.5

1.2

1.6

2.9

3.7

4.2

4.9

5.8

-5.1

2.6

2.8

3.5

4.2

3.3

7.4

7.7

3.6

3.7

2

3.5

6.1

1.5

5.5

7.4

2.9

4.1

5.7

3.8

11.1

5

2.3

6.7

4

5.7

0.6

4.2

8.6

4.6

7.9

5.9

7.2

3.9

Agricultural GDP growth rate (%)

GDP growth rate (%)

Sheet1

PopulationGNP per capitaGDP

millionU$average increase per yearGDP

Country(District)199819981980-901990-981980-901990-981980-901990-981998gdpgdp%agrind

65Kuwait21.314.710000

83Myanmar440.66.30.550.510.15906.3510.1

88Nicaragua5-24.1-5.88.72.1-4.83404.18.7-4.8

103Saudi Arabia211.613.40.7-2.31.5601.60.71.5

121Turkmenistan5-9.60-9.600

41Ethiopia611001.14.90.22.80.46.51004.92.86.5

28Congo, Dem. Rep481101.6-5.12.52.90.9-11.758110-5.12.9-11.7

18Burundi71404.4-3.23.1-2.44.5-7.849140-3.2-2.4-7.8

105Sierra Leone51400.3-4.73.11.51.7-7.844140-4.71.5-7.8

89Niger10190-0.11.91.72.2-1.71.7411901.92.21.7

39Eritrea42005.292005.200

74Malawi112002.53.928.92.91.3392003.98.91.3

82Mozambique17210-0.15.76.64.8-4.58.5342105.74.88.5

85Nepal232104.64.842.38.77.3402104.82.37.3

116Tanzania322102.93.71.8462102.93.71.8

23Chad72303.74.62.35.48.10392304.65.40

102Rwanda82302.2-3.30.5-5.22.5-0.634230-3.3-5.2-0.6

17Burkina Faso112403.63.53.13.43.83.1322403.53.43.1

76Mali112500.93.73.33.34.37.6452503.73.37.6

73Madagascar152601.11.32.51.50.91.5312601.31.51.5

19Cambodia112805.52.210.7512805.52.210.7

22Central African Republic33001.41.51.63.51.40.2553001.53.50.2

90Nigeria1213001.62.63.32.9-1.11.2323002.62.91.2

130Yemen, Rep.163003.84.36.4183003.84.36.4

122Uganda213203.27.42.13.6513.3433207.43.613.3

63Kenya293304.22.23.31.23.92293302.21.22

67Lao PDR53306.73.44.56.111.9523306.74.511.9

118Togo43301.72.35.64.51.12.6423302.34.52.6

129Vietnam783304.68.64.35.113.3263308.65.113.3

131Zambia10330113.6-4.90.8-4.7163301-4.9-4.7

3Angola123403.7-0.40.5-4.36.43.614340-0.4-4.33.6

9The Bangladesh1263504.34.82.71.54.97233504.81.57

66Kyrgyz Republic5350-7.3-1.2-1246350-7.3-1.2-12

115Tajikistan6350-16.4350-16.400

12Benin63802.94.65.55.234393804.65.24

46Ghana1839034.212.83.34.4373904.22.84.4

80Mongolia34005.40.11.41.96.7-2334000.11.9-2

50Haiti8410-0.2-2.5-0.1-4.9-1.7-2.731410-2.5-4.9-2.7

77Mauritania34101.84.21.754.93.4244104.253.4

79Moldova44103-14.1-7.1-1331410-14.1-7.1-13

53India9804305.86.13.13.476.7254306.13.46.7

5Armenia4480-10.30.2-18.141480-10.30.2-18.1

92Pakistan1324806.34.14.33.87.35254804.13.85

8Azerbaijan8490-10.5-2.74.219490-10.5-2.74.2

104Senegal95303.132.81.44.341753031.44

49Guinea754054.41.62254054.41.6

70Lesotho25704.47.22.267.19.2115707.269.2

20Cameroon.146103.40.62.155.9-3.3426100.65-3.3

132Zimbabwe126103.623.13.43.2-11861023.4-1

54Indonesia2046806.15.83.42.86.99.9166805.82.89.9

29Congo, Rep36903.313.41.65.20.21269011.60.2

31Cte d'Ivoire147000.73.50.32.44.45.1257003.52.45.1

51Honduras67302.73.62.73.23.33.8237303.63.23.8

25China123975010.211.15.94.311.115.41875011.14.315.4

1Albania38101.51.81.98.12.1-9.7638101.88.1-9.7

111Sri Lanka1981045.32.21.54.66.5228105.31.56.5

123Ukraine50850-13.1-21.4-16.412850-13.1-21.4-16.4

127Uzbekistan24870-1.9-1.6-528870-1.9-1.6-5

94Papua New Guinea58901.95.71.84.11.98.9288905.74.18.9

44Georgia59300.4-16.332930-16.300

13Bolivia81000-0.24.21610004.200

114Syrian Arab Republic1510201.55.9-0.66.610205.900

97Philippines75105013.311.5-0.93.61710503.31.53.6

16Bulgaria812303.4-3.3-2.1-3.15.2-5.5231230-3.3-3.1-5.5

81Morocco2812504.22.16.70.333.21612502.10.33.2

37Egypt, Arab Rep.6112905.44.22.72.95.24.21712904.22.94.2

72Macedonia, FYR21290-0.11.9-4.6121290-0.11.9-4.6

62Kazakhstan161310-6.9-12.7-10.2101310-6.9-12.7-10.2

100Romania2213900.5-0.6-0.2-0.8151390-0.6-0.2-0.8

61Jordan515202.55.46.8-3.11.76.8315205.4-3.16.8

36Ecuador12153022.94.42.71.23.71215302.92.73.7

2Algeria3015502.71.24.62.62.3-21215501.22.6-2

48Guatemala1116400.84.21.22.2-0.24.32116404.22.24.3

59Jamaica3168020.10.62.32.4-0.4716800.12.3-0.4

95Paraguay517602.52.83.62.90.33.12517602.82.93.1

35Dominican Republic817703.15.50.43.63.66.11217705.53.66.1

55Iran, Islamic Rep.6217701.744.54.83.33.8177044.83.8

38El Salvador618500.25.3-1.11.30.15.41318505.31.35.4

84Namibia219400.93.51.82.9-1.23.31019403.52.93.3

119Tunisia920503.34.42.81.73.14.51420504.41.74.5

10Belarus102200-6.1-5.9-7.8142200-6.1-5.9-7.8

117Thailand6122007.67.43.93.19.891122007.43.19

101Russian Federation1472300-7-6.9-8.192300-7-6.9-8.1

68Latvia224303.5-8.52.3-10.84.3-15.972430-8.5-10.8-15.9

71Lithuania42440-5.2-1.4-10.1142440-5.2-1.4-10.1

96Peru252460-0.35.92.75.5-0.97.1724605.95.57.1

27Colombia4126003.64.22.91.652.91326004.21.62.9

30Costa Rica4278033.73.12.82.83.31427803.72.83.3

109South Africa4128801.21.62.92.700.9428801.62.70.9

93Panama330800.54.32.51.7-1.36.3730804.31.76.3

120Turkey6331605.44.11.31.17.851531604.11.15

40Estonia133902.2-2.1-4.3-5.953390-2.1-4.3-5.9

128Venezuela, RB2335001.1231.11.63.54350021.13.5

69Lebanon435607.73.22.11235607.73.22.1

14Botswana2360010.34.83.30.110.23.1436004.80.13.1

75Malaysia2236005.37.73.827.210.81236007.7210.8

107Slovak Republic5370020.61.6-0.42-6.5537000.6-0.4-6.5

98Poland3939001.84.5-0.7-1.6-1.34.7439004.5-1.64.7

78Mexico9639700.72.50.81.41.13.2539702.51.43.2

52Hungary1045101.3-0.21.7-3.80.21.164510-0.2-3.81.1

32Croatia54520-1-4.4-8.24520-1-4.4-8.2

15Brazil16645702.73.32.83.123.2845703.33.13.2

24Chile1548104.27.95.95.23.56.8848107.95.26.8

33Czech Republic1050401.7-0.250400

126Uruguay361800.43.904.2-0.21.2861808

64Korea, Rep.4679709.46.22.82.112.17.5679706

4Argentina368970-0.45.30.72.1-1.34.6789707

108Slovenia297601.40.20.8597605

99Portugal10106903.12.3-0.40.5106900

47Greece11116501.82-0.121.3-0.5116500

110Spain391408031.9-2.5-0.43140803

87New Zealand4147001.83.23.82.21.13.7147000

57Israel6159403.55.4159400

56Ireland4183403.27.5183400

21Canada31200203.33.21.21.23.11.8200200

58Italy58202502.41.20.11.320.83202503

6Australia19203003.43.63.31.12.92.53203003

124United Kingdom59214003.22.22214002

26Hong Kong, China7236706.94.40236700

42Finland5241103.32-0.20.23.32.14241104

86Netherlands16247602.32.63.43.71.61.2247600

43France59249402.31.520.41.10.12249402

11Belgium102538021.621.62.20.71253801

112Sweden9256202.31.21.5-1.92.8-0.7256200

45Germany82258502.21.61.70.81.21258501

7Austria8268502.221.1-0.71.91.31268501

125United States2702934032.924.32293402

106Singapore3300606.68-6.22.15.48.80300600

60Japan1263238041.31.3-24.20.2323800

34Denmark5332602.32.83.11.72.91.9332600

91Norway4343302.83.9-0.24.53.35.62343302

113Switzerland74008020.4400800

The World589748903.22.42.71.22.15

Low-income Countries35155206.67.34.13.57.81121

Medium-income Countries149629502.61.92.6-0.22.51.69

Medium and Low-income countries501112503.53.33.41.73.74.212

High-income countries885255103.12.10.31.52

Sheet3

93 countries

US$/personAgr%gdpAgrGDP%GDPAgrind

15203

28804850-21.4-13.1-21.4-16.4

350041310-12.7-6.9-12.7-10.2

360042430-10.8-8.5-10.8-15.9

39004410-7.1-14.1-7.1-13

339052300-6.9-7-6.9-8.1

370052200-5.9-6.1-5.9-7.8

39705230-5.2-3.3-5.2-0.6

45106330-4.91-4.9-4.7

16807410-4.9-2.5-4.9-2.7

243074520-4.4-1-4.4-8.2

246073390-4.3-2.1-4.3-5.9

30807340-4.3-0.4-4.33.6

457084510-3.8-0.2-3.81.1

481081230-3.1-3.3-3.1-5.5

20091520-3.15.4-3.16.8

23009490-2.7-10.