promoting inclusive growth under the transformation agenda

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PROMOTING INCLUSIVE GROWTH UNDER THE TRANSFORMATION AGENDA. Bright E. Okogu Director-General Budget Office of the Federation. 1 st Covenant University International Conference on African Development Issues, Nigeria May 5, 2014. HOW DID WE GET HERE?. Dependency on oil exports. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • PROMOTING INCLUSIVE GROWTH UNDER THE TRANSFORMATION AGENDABright E. Okogu

    Director-GeneralBudget Office of the Federation1st Covenant University International Conference on African Development Issues, Nigeria

    May 5, 2014

  • HOW DID WE GET HERE?Dependency on oil exportsHigh food importation/food insecurityHousing DeficitPoor InfrastructureHigh InflationFalling Reserves1234567High Recurrent ExpenditureRising Domestic Debt89High unemployment*

    Macro-indicator1960-19691970-2003Real GDP Growth (%)2.93.1Inflation (%)3.321.4Surplus (+)/Deficit (-) (% of GDP)10.0-4.5Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) 6.511.6Balance of Payments (% of GDP)N/A-3.3333*External Reserves ($'bn) 0.23.9

  • HOW DID WE GET HERE?*

  • WHERE WE ARE*

  • WHERE WE ARE (2)*

  • INEQUALITY: NIGERIA AND THE REST OF THE WORLD CIA, WORLDBANK, and NBS DATASouth Africa: 0.63Brazil: 0.54China: 0.42India: 0.33Indonesia: 0.38Turkey: 0.40Malaysia: 0.46Mexico 0.47Nigeria: 0.48 (NBS)Source: CIA, 2013Source: WorldBank*

  • INEQUALITY! Maternal Mortality RateNIGERIA AND THE REST OF THE WORLDNigeria still ranks poorly on the list of countries with high maternal and infant mortality rates with a ratio of 545-630 per 100,000 live births on the maternal mortality index (2010) indicating that women were being shut out of the impressive economic growth. This has improved somewhat in 2013*

  • NIGERIAS ECONOMIC REFORMS*

  • NIGERIAS ECONOMIC REFORMS (2)*

  • NIGERIAS ECONOMIC REFORMS (3)

    BUT GROWTH HAS NOT BEEN INCLUSIVE ENOUGH!Strong economic performance across various sectors is creating jobs across the nation. A total of 1.6 million jobs were created in the past yearLarge number of new entrants into the labour force (about 1.8 million p.a.)GDP shows that the country is not so poor. But we recognize that income distribution needs to be fairer.This is a challenge of public policy that the Transformation Agenda is addressing.

    *

  • WHAT ARE WE DOING TO MAKE GROWTH MORE INCLUSIVE?*Fiscal consolidation and OptimizationJob CreationStrong, Inclusive, non-inflationary growthPillars of the Transformation AgendaStrong macro-fiscal foundation has been laid; Progress with structural reforms and job creations, but needs deepening

  • WHAT ARE WE DOING TO MAKE GROWTH MORE INCLUSIVE? (2)*HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENTEducationHealthLabour and ProductivityWomen and Youth DevelopmentGOVERNANCESecurityPublic Service ReformAnti-CorruptionForeign Policy and Economic DiplomacyREAL SECTORAgricultureManufacturingOil & GasSolid MineralsINFRASTRUCTUREPowerTransport (Roads, Rail, Inland Waterways & Seaports)HousingWater for Irrigation and IndustriesJob creationPoverty ReductionNational Food SecurityNational Social securityStrong NoninflationaryEconomic Growth

  • WHAT ARE WE DOING? (2)Sectoral Reforms*

  • WHAT ARE WE DOING? (3)Sectoral Reforms*

  • WHAT ARE WE DOING? (4)Sectoral Reforms*

  • WHAT ARE WE DOING? (5)The SURE-P Model*

  • WHAT ARE WE DOING?(6)The SURE-P Model*

  • WHAT ARE WE DOING? (7)The SURE-P Model*

  • WHAT ARE WE DOING? (8)Other Special Initiatives to promote Jobs and Growth*

  • PURSUING INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN A GLOBALIZED WORLDA comment on Maskins Alternative TheoryGlobalisation = enhanced international productionRecognizes 4 skill levelsAssumes two countries (Rich and Emerging)Structure with multiplicity of tasks in a production process but assumes that higher skill levels (A and B) are obtained in Rich countryEmerging countries are endowed with lower level skills (C and D) Higher skill levels earn more than lower skills levelRaising the skill levels of (lower skill workers) can reduce inequality

    Some complicationsBeyond improving skills, globalization has its own inherent challengesLimited market access in global context (other barriers)Requisite technology not always available & expensive to acquire

    *

  • PURSUING INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD (2)*

  • CONCLUDING THOUGHTS1232*

    **The balance of payments is from 1998 to 2003*Issues relating to the Dutch-Disease Syndrome can be discussed here as well as fiscal indiscipline***According to the NBS, Nigerias inequality, measured by gini-coefficient, rose from 0.43 in 2004 to 0.48 in 2010*Source: United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects and the Institute for Health Metric Reports of 2010 published in 2012The World Bank puts the number at 630****************

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