the role of earthquake impact assessment in mitigation, response and recovery
DESCRIPTION
Congressional Hazards Caucus and Congressional Hazards Caucus Alliance Briefing. The Role of Earthquake Impact Assessment in Mitigation, Response and Recovery. Amr S. Elnashai, FREng Bill and Elaine Hall Endowed Professor Director of MAE Center. Earthquake Risk Management in the MAE Center. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
The Role of Earthquake Impact Assessment in Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Congressional Hazards Caucus andCongressional Hazards Caucus Alliance Briefing
Amr S. Elnashai, FREng
Bill and Elaine Hall Endowed ProfessorDirector of MAE Center
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Earthquake Risk Management in the MAE Center
Current projects St. Louis Illinois Central USA Istanbul
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
State-Level Impact Assessment
Worst-case impact assessment for each state
Estimates for State and counties Damaged structures Damage and functionality
Essential facilities Roads, bridges and other
transportation infrastructure Utility facilities, pipeline
distribution networks, electric service
Fire ignitions Debris Social impacts (shelter and
casualties) HAZMAT vulnerability Direct Economic losses
Five Detailed site-specific studies of rural and urban sites
Alabama
67 Counties
Arkansas
75 CountiesIllinois
102 Counties
Indiana
92 Counties
Kentucky
120 Counties
Mississippi
82 Counties
Missouri
115 Counties
Tennessee
95 Counties
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
City-Level Impact Assessment
Five Detailed site-specific studies of rural and urban sites
St. Louis, MO Cairo, IL Memphis, TN Wickliffe, KY Charleston, MO
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Objective
Provide the Most Credible Estimates of Impact of New Madrid and Wabash Valley Earthquakes with Associated Uncertainty
…. Estimates that can Stand Scientific
and Political Scrutiny
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
The Total Earthquake Risk Cycle
Risk Identification
Consequence Assessment
Planning and Mitigation
Response to Incident
Recoveryto Normality
Hazard-Generated Needs
Response-Generated Needs
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
?Preference Plots
Comparison of Alternatives for C2M Structures
050
100150200250300350400450500
No Action Rehab_LS Rehab_IO New
Alternatives
Eq
uiv
ale
nt
Co
st (
$ M
illio
n) Rehab+Repair Cost
Loss of Function
Life Loss
Overall
?Preference Plots
Comparison of Alternatives for C2M Structures
050
100150200250300350400450500
No Action Rehab_LS Rehab_IO New
Alternatives
Eq
uiv
ale
nt
Co
st (
$ M
illio
n) Rehab+Repair Cost
Loss of Function
Life Loss
Overall
Components of Impact Assessment
HAZARD
Description of the ground shaking
INVENTORY
Assets that are subjected to the Hazard
FRAGILITY
Sensitivity of the assets to damagefrom intensity of shaking
00.25
0.50.75
1
23456789100
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
Sa (g)
No. of Stories
F( S
a )
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Tools: HAZUS and MAEviz
HAZUS is FEMA’s Loss Assessment Software It includes three levels, I, II and III
MAEviz is the MAE Center specialized loss assessment software
It is complementary to HAZUS It has transportation modeling and
decision-support capabilities
Level 2 (User-supplied Data Analysis)
Level 1 (Default Data Analysis)
Level 3 (Advanced Data and Models Analysis)
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
HAZUS Advanced Analysis
Preliminary Results
For 240 out of 745 Counties
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
General Building Stock
Ground failure more than doubles damage to regional buildings, making it the single most critical factor influencing building damage, particularly collapse
Building stock data is based on aggregated census tract data and improved data is likely to increase damage and economic loss as the number of buildings increases
At Least Moderate Complete At Least Moderate Complete At Least Moderate CompleteLight Wood Frame 61,126 142 64,049 442 118,148 63,242Unreinforced Masonry 48,854 5,734 73,852 13,754 76,534 21,673Mobile Home 109,736 3,564 99,089 13,839 101,097 22,667
Level I Improved Level I Level II
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Transportation Facilities
Railway Bridge DamageAt Least Moderate^̀0.0 - 0.15^̀0.15 - 0.3^̀0.3 - 0.45^̀0.45 - 0.6^̀0.6 - 0.75Airport Facilitiy DamageAt Least Moderateo 0.0 - 0.15o 0.15 - 0.3o 0.3 - 0.45o 0.45 - 0.6o 0.6 - 0.75o 0.75 - 0.96Railway Segment DamageAt Least Moderate
0.0 - 0.050.05 - 0.10.1 - 0.150.15 - 0.20.2 - 0.25
^̀^̀^̀̂̀
^̀
^̀
^̀̂̀^̀̂̀
^̀̂̀^̀̂̀
^̀̂̀^̀
^̀
^̀^̀^̀
^̀̂̀^̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀
^̀̂̀
^̀̂̀
^̀̂̀
^̀̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂
^̀
^̀
^̀̀̂̀̂̂̀
^̀ ^̀̂̀
^̀̂̀
^̀̂̀
^̀^̀ ^̀ ^̀̂̀
^̀̂̀
^̀̀̂̀̂^̀̂̀
^̀
^̀ ^̀^̀^̀
^̀
^̀^̀
^̀
^̀
^̀
^̀̂̀^̀
^̀
^̀^̀
^̀̂̀̂̀̂̀
^̀
^̀^̀
^̀^̀
^̀
^̀^̀̂̀
^̀̂̀
^̀̂̀^̀̂̀^̀
^̀^̀̂̀^̀
^̀^̀
^̀̀̂̀̂
^̀ ^̀
^̀
^̀
^̀
^̀^̀ ^̀
^̀^̀
^̀̂̀̂̀̂̀
^̀ ^̀̀̂̂̀̂̀̀̂̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̀̂^̀̂̀^̀
^̀̀̂̂̀^̀̀̂
^̀^̀
^̀ ^̀
^̀
^̀̀̂̂̀
^̀̂̀ ^̀̂̀
^̀̂̀̂̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂`̀̂^̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̂̀`
^̀
^̀̂̀̂̀
^̀^̀^̀^̀^̀̂̀^̀^̀
^̀̀̂^̀̂̀̀̂ ^̀^̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̀̂̀̂̂̀^̀
^̀̂̀̀̂̀̂̂̀̂̀ ^̀^̀̀̂̀̂̂̀
^̀^̀^̀̂̀
^̀̀̂^̀^̀^̀
^̀̀̂^̀̂̀̂̀̂̀
^̀
^̀̀̂̀̂^̀̂̀̂̀̀̂̂̀^̀
^̀̂`^̀̂`̀̂^̀̂̀ ^̂̀̀̂̀̂̀̂̂̀̂̀`̂`
^̀^̀
^̀
^̀^̀̀̂̀̂̂̀̂̀̀̂
^̀^̀^̀
^̀̀̂^̀^̀̂̀̂̀̂̀
^̀̂`̀̂̀̂^̀̂̀
^̂̀̂̀`^̂̀`
^̀̂̀̂̀̀̂̀̂̂̀̀̂^̀^̀^̀^̀̂`̂̀̀̂̀̂̀̂
^̀^̀̀̂^̀^̀^̀ ^̀
^̀^̀̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂
^̀
^̀̀̂^̀
^̀̂̀̂`̀̂̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀^̀ ^̀^̀
^̀̂̀̂̀
^̀̂̀^̀^̀
^̀^̀^̀^̀^̂̀`^̀̀̂̀̂^̀^̀̂̀
^̀^̀̀̂^̀
^̂̀`^̀^̀̀̂̀̂^̀
^̀̂̀̂̀
^̀^̀^̀
^̀̀̂̀̂
^̀̂`^̀̂̀^̀
^̀̂̀̂̀^̀
^̀^̀
^̀̀̂
^̀̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂ ^̀^̀ ^̀ ^̀
^̀̂̀
^̀̂`̀̂^̀̂̀̂̀̂̀̂̀
^̀̀̂̀̂̂̀̂̀̂̀̀̂^̀̂̀^̀
o
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
oo
oo
oooo o
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
oooo
ooo
o
ooo
ooo
o
ooo
o
o
o
ooo
oo
o
o
o o
oo
o
o
o
oooo
o o
o
oo
o
oo
oo
ooo
o
oo
o
o
o ooo
o
o
oo
ooo
o
o
oo
oooo
oo
oo
oo
oo
o
oo
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
oo
oo
oooooo
oo
o oo
oo
ooo
oo
o
ooo
o
o
oooooo
o
oo
oo
oo
oo
o oo
o
ooo
o
oooo
o
oo
o
o oo
o
oo
o
oo
oo
ooo
o
o
o
ooo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
oooo
oooo
o
o
ooo oooo
o
oooo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
oo
oo o o
oo
o
oooo
oo
o
oo
o
oo
oo
oo
oo
o o
o
oo
oo
ooooooo
o
ooo
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
o o
ooo o
ooo
oo
o
o
oo ooo
ooo
oo
ooo
o
oo
ooooo o
oooo
o
ooo
o
o
o
oo
ooo
o oo
o o
o
o ooooo
oooooo
o
o
oo
o
o
ooo ooo
oooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo o
o
oo
o
oo o
o o
o
ooo
o
oo
o
oo
o
oo
o
ooo
ooo
ooooo
oo
o
o ooo
oooo
o
ooooooo
ooo
ooo oooo
oo
ooo
oo
oo
o
ooo
oo
o
ooo
o
oo
o
o
ooo
ooo
o o oo o
o
oooo o
oo
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oooo o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
oo o o
oo
ooo
o
o
ooo
oooo
o
o
o
ooo oo
o
ooo
oooo
o
o
o
oo
oo
oooo
oo
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
ooo
oo
oo oo
o
o
oo
o
oo oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
Level I Improved Level I Level IIHighway Bridges 379 1,179 1,987Railway Facilties 42 46 85Port Facilities 38 114 138Airport Facilities 6 48 64
30,000 bridges in region, Level II incurs greatest number of bridges with at least moderate damage
Improved inventories are likely to show more structures than HAZUS default
Better inventories will elicit more damage and economic loss
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Transportation Networks
Over 86,000 miles of highways in 230 county study region
Effect is CATASTROPHIC Dense Memphis
transportation grid is most vulnerable to southwest source event
Updated roadway fragilities and regional inventory is likely to increase regional highway damage
Highway Segment DamageAt Least Moderate
0 - 0.040.04 - 0.080.08 - 0.120.12 - 0.160.16 - 0.200.20 - 0.25
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Utility Facilities
Wastewater facilities are largest inventory category and thus most facilities damaged – waste water services will be hit very hard
Underestimation of utility inventory, making damage and loss estimates less reliable
Improved inventory is likely to increase damage rates at all levels
Waste Water Facilities Damage
At Least Moderate%2 0.0 - 0.2%2 0.2 - 0.4%2 0.4 - 0.6%2 0.6 - 0.8%2 0.8 - 1.0
Electric Power Facility Damage
At Least Moderate%L 0.0 - 0.2%L 0.2 - 0.4%L 0.4 - 0.6%L 0.6 - 0.8%L 0.8 - 1.0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0 #0#0
#0 #0#0#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0 #0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0 #0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0#0#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0 #0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0#0
#0 #0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0#0 #0#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0#0
#0
#0#0#0 #0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0#0#0
#0#0
#0 #0
#0 #0
#0#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0#0 #0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0#0
#0#0#0#0#0
#0#0#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0#0
#0
#0#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0
#0#0 #0#0
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2
%2 %2
%2
%2%2%2%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2%2%2%2%2
%2
%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2
%2%2%2 %2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2%2%2%2%2
%2%2
%2%2%2
%2%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2 %2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2 %2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2 %2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2%2%2%2%2%2%2 %2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2 %2%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2 %2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2 %2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2%2%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2%2
%2 %2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2 %2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2 %2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2 %2 %2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2
%2%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2 %2
%2%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2 %2%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2 %2%2 %2%2 %2
%2
%2%2%2%2%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2 %2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2 %2%2
%2
%2%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2%2%2%2%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2 %2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2 %2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2 %2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2%2 %2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2%2%2
%2%2%2%2
%2
%2%2%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2 %2%2%2
%2%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2 %2%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2 %2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2%2%2%2%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2%2 %2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2%2%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2 %2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2 %2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2
%2%2%2
%2
%2%2
%2
%2
%2%2 %2
%2
%2 %2
%2
%2
%2
%L%L%L %L%L
%L
%L
%L%L%L%L%L
%L %L
%L
%L%L
%L%L
%L
%L
%L
%L
%L
%L
%L
%L%L
%L
%L
%L
%L%L
%L
%L
%L
%L
%L%L
%L%L%L
%L
%L%L%L%L
%L
%L %L%L
%L
%L
%L
%L
%L%L
%L
%L%L
%L%L%L
%L%L%L
%L
%L%L
%L%L
%L
%L
%L
%L
%L
%L%L
%L
%L%L
%L
%L
%L
%L%L
%L%L%L
%L%L%L
%L
%L
%L
%L%L
%L
%L
%L
%L%L%L%L
%L
%L
%L
%L
%L%L%L
%L
%L
%L%L %L %L%L%L%L%L %L%L
%L
%L %L
%L%L
%L%L
%L %L%L
%L%L%L%L
%L
%L %L
%L%L%L%L%L %L
%L%L
%L%L
%L%L
%L%L
%L
%L
%L%L
Facility Type Level I Improved Level I Level IIPotable Water 8 36 36Waste Water 47 180 180Natural Gas 2 12 12Oil 8 12 12Electric Power 5 17 17Communication 25 111 111
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Utility Networks
All utility networks are based on assumed pipeline lengths, not actual field surveys
Addition of HSIP pipelines for major distribution lines only
Overall pipeline damage is unreliable, additional network data will indicate a major increase in damage
Total Pipeline Length (kms)
Number of Leaks
Number of Breaks
Potable Water 500,560 39,540 58,974Waste Water 300,336 31,273 46,643Natural Gas 200,224 33,430 49,860
Natural Gas Pipelines
Oil Pipelines
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Social Impacts and Essential Facilities
Fire ignitions at approximately 50 for higher levels of analysis
Debris generation increases from 7 to 18 million tons
These numbers are likely to increase as building inventories and regional demographics are updated to current values
Level I Improved Level I Level IIDisplaced Households 18,837 27,513 118,743Temporary Housing 5,849 8,095 34,181Casualties 13,616 21,026 36,350
Very significant impact on hospitals, fire and police stations as analysis levels increase, thus fewer services in hardest hit areas are available
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Direct Economic Losses
The southwest extension event produces the greatest regional losses at every level of analysis
These values provide a lower bound due to uncertainties in each of the three components of earthquake impact assessment
It is highly probable that inventory improvements, updated fragilities and refining regional hazard will increase direct economic losses
Direct Loss Cetegory Level I Improved Level I Level IIBuildings $12,942,294,000 $19,656,812,898 $34,383,750,000Transportation $575,128,000 $1,286,888,816 $5,044,643,000Utility $2,033,110,000 $8,506,970,890 $11,034,740,000Total $15,550,532,000 $29,450,672,604 $50,463,133,000
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
HAZUS Advanced Analysis
Parameters Influencing Impact Analysis
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Factors Influencing Assessment Improvement
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Fin
al Im
pac
t V
alu
e/C
urr
ent
Imp
act
Val
ue
Rat
io
Hazar
d Def
initio
n - W
abas
h
Hazar
d Def
initio
n - N
ew M
adrid
Region
al an
d Lo
cal S
ite C
ondit
ions
Essen
tial F
acilit
ies In
vent
ory
Trans
porta
tion
Facilit
ies In
vent
ory
Trans
porta
tion
Networ
k Inv
ento
ry
Cell P
hone
Tow
er In
vent
ory
Utility
Facilit
ies In
vent
ory
Utility
Networ
k Inv
ento
ry
Tasks
Current Impact
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Factors Influencing Assessment Improvement
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Fin
al Im
pac
t V
alu
e/C
urr
ent
Imp
act
Val
ue
Rat
io
Hazar
dous
Mat
erial
s Fac
ilities
Hazar
dous
Mat
erial
s Che
mica
l Inve
ntor
y
Buildin
g Fra
gilitie
s
Trans
porta
tion
Fragil
ities
Utility
Networ
k Fra
gilitie
s
Specia
l Stru
cture
s Inv
ento
ry
Dynam
ic Tra
ffic M
odeli
ng
Site-S
pecif
ic Stu
dies
High-R
ise B
uildin
g Fra
gilitie
s
Cell T
ower
Fra
gilitie
s
Tasks
Current Impact
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Upcoming Activities
Planned Work Finalize regional hazard for New Madrid and Wabash scenarios Determine hazard for site-specific scenarios Obtain best available inventory for as many categories as
possible of the following: Hazardous materials facilities and storage Highway bridges – including long-span bridges Essential facilities Pipeline networks Electric power networks Cell phone towers and communications facilities Levees
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Upcoming Activities
Planned Work – cont’d Development of analytical fragilities for high-rise buildings
for St. Louis and Chicago Development of fragilities for communications systems Develop detailed response and recovery models Implement the Temporary Housing Optimization module in
MAEviz Use of MAEviz for local assessments, including
transportation traffic modeling, utilities networks flow, decision-making tool and uncertainty quantification
Mid-America Earthquake CenterAssessment, Mitigation, Response and Recovery
Q and A