the role of computing in climate science
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The Role of Computing in Climate Science. Dr. Robert Bishop CERN 29 January 2010. Climate is the thin edge of the wedge!. The Bigger Picture. We have been treating the sciences as separate stovepipes and silos for over 200 years!. In Research In Publishing In University Faculties - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The Role of Computing in Climate Science
Dr. Robert Bishop
CERN 29 January 2010
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Climate is the thin edge of the wedge!
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The Bigger Picture
CLIMATE
ENVIRONMENT
BIOSPHERE
EARTH
SOLAR SYSTEM
CIVILISATION
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We have been treating the sciences as separate stovepipes and silos
for over 200 years!
• In Research• In Publishing • In University Faculties • In Government Departments
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21C: Integration vs Dis-Integration
The Whole Earth
• Seamless• Multi-science • Multi-scale (spatial & temporal)
The New Grand Challenge
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Before the Age of ComputingIn 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson, a mathematician and meteorologist, proposed an immersive giant globe to
numerically forecast weather. This “factory” would employ 64,000 human computers to sit in tiers around
the interior circumference of a giant globe.
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Yokohama Earth Simulator Opened March 2002, NEC SX-6
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WW Dedicated Climate Machines(TAKEN FROM THE NOVEMBER 2009 TOP500 SUPERCOMPUTER SITES)
Worldwide
Ranking
Organisation
Country
Peak
Teraflops Sustained
Teraflops Supplier
# 31 JAMSTEC JAPAN 131.07 122.40
NEC
SX-9
# 33 ECMWF UK 156.42 115.90
IBM
Power 575
# 34 ECMWF UK 156.42 115.90
IBM
Power 575
# 35 DKRZ GY 151.60 115.90
IBM
Power 575
# 54 NAVO USA 117.13 90.84
CRAY
XT5
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Proposed ICES Computing Resources
• Dedicated High Performance Computing - 20 year transition: petaflop(1015)-exaflop(1018)-zettaflop(1021flops)
• High-resolution 3D interactive immersion
- auditorium level viewing with remote viewing & remote steering
• Low cost (nuclear) power from France• Ultra-high-speed networking from ITU• Green Computing, Cloud Computing
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HPC Computing Choices
• Homogeneous vs heterogeneous architectures• Multi-core, CPU-GPU, FPGA, ASICs or full custom• Cluster vs SMP, distributed vs shared memory• Power management, flops/megawatt• Software tools, compilers and middleware • ICES Speed-up requirement ~ 1000 x real-time
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ICES Modeling Challenges
• Algorithm development• Coupling, feedbacks and linkages• Representation of physical processes • Uncertainty estimates & management • Massive data ingest, management & re-analysis• Data availability, quality control & harmonization• Ensembles, statistical & stochastical methods• Initial & boundary condition determination • Output validation & verification• Multi-Decadal focus
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ICES Fundamentals
• 200 professionals including many seconded experts• Climate/Weather/Environ/Geo/Bio/Social Sciences• Analytics, decision making, discovery, innovation• Research, teaching, training, capacity building• Advanced modeling and simulation• Dedicated Supercomputing• Visually Intensive
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ICES and Disaster Risk Reduction
SOCIALSYSTEMS
SOLARSYSTEM
EARTHSYSTEM
BIOSPHERE
ENVIRONMENT
CLIMATE &WEATHER
InundationNatural Hazards
Precursor SignalsCommunity- Resilience
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ICES Organisation Structure
• Geneva-based • Not-for-profit Foundation• Public-Private Partnership• Multi-institute actor’s network
- WMO/WCRP/GEO, National Climate Services, Research Centers
• Governance from scientists & Int’l Orgs.
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Why Geneva?
• Science literate, educational infrastructure• International city, neutral country, trusted• Proximity to policy bodies:
WMO, UNEP, WHO, WTO, WEF, UNCTAD,
WBCSD, ITU, ICRC, UNHCR, IUCN, WWF
Partnerships with EPFL, Uni GE, CERN
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Learn from CERN
• New tools• New platforms • New knowledge• New organization• Global networking• ‘CLOUD’ experiment
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ICES Funding
• PHASE 1 (2010~2015) $350M from sources: 1/2 public, 1/2 private
• PHASE 2 (2016~2020) $450M from sources: 1/3 public, 1/3 private, 1/3 products and services, such as:
- test bed for large scale construction projects - industry specific services - disaster risk reduction - ‘what if’ scenarios
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ICES Foundation Members
BOARD MEMBERS: Bob BishopPresident André KaplunSecretary Julien PittonTreasurer
BANKERS: UBS
AUDITORS: PricewaterhouseCoopers
EXPERT COMMITTEE: in formation
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Helping guide the successful transformation of human society in an era of rapid climate change and frequent natural disasters.