the phd factory - nature.pdf

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cientists who attain a PhD are rightlyproud they have gained entry toan academic elite. But it is not as eliteas it once was. The number of sciencedoctorates earned each year grew bynearly 40% between 1998 and 2008,

to some 34,000, in countries that are membersof the Organisation for Economic Co-opera-tion and Development (OECD). The growthshows no sign of slowing: most countries arebuilding up their higher-education systemsbecause they see educated workers as a keyto economic growth (see The rise of doctor-ates). But in much of the world, science PhDgraduates may never get a chance to take fulladvantage of their qualifications.

In some countries, including the United

States and Japan, people who have trained atgreat length and expense to be researchers con-front a dwindling number of academic jobs, andan industrial sector unable to take up the slack.Supply has outstripped demand and, althoughfew PhD holders end up unemployed, it is notclear that spending years securing this high-level qualification is worth it for a job as, forexample, a high-school teacher. In other coun-tries, such as China and India, the economiesare developing fast enough to use all the PhDsthey can crank out, and more but the qualityof the graduates is not consistent. Only a fewnations, including Germany, are successfully

tackling the problem by redefining the PhD as

training for high-level positions in careers out-side academia. Here,Natureexamines graduate-education systems in various states of health.

JAPAN: A SYSTEM IN CRISIS

Of all the countries in which to graduate with ascience PhD, Japan is arguably one of the worst.In the 1990s, the government set a policy totriple the number of postdocs to 10,000, andstepped up PhD recruitment to meet that goal.The policy was meant to bring Japans science

capacity up to match that of the West butis now much criticized because, although itquickly succeeded, it gave little thought towhere all those postdocs were going to end up.

Academia doesnt want them: the numberof 18-year-olds entering higher education hasbeen dropping, so universities dont need thestaff. Neither does Japanese industry, which hastraditionally preferred young, fresh bachelorsgraduates who can be trained on the job. Thescience and education ministry couldnt evensell them off when, in 2009, it started offeringcompanies around 4 million (US$47,000)

each to take on some of the countrys 18,000

unemployed postdoctoral students (one ofseveral initiatives that have been introducedto improve the situation). Its just hard to finda match between postdoc and company, saysKoichi Kitazawa, the head of the Japan Scienceand Technology Agency.

This means there are few jobs for the currentcrop of PhDs. Of the 1,350 people awardeddoctorates in natural sciences in 2010, just overhalf (746) had full-time posts lined up by thetime they graduated. But only 162 were in theacademic sciences or technological services,; ofthe rest, 250 took industry positions, 256 wentinto education and 38 got government jobs.

With such dismal prospects, the numberentering PhD programmes has dropped off(see Patterns of PhD production). Everyone

tends to look at the future of the PhD labourmarket very pessimistically, says KobayashiShinichi, a specialist in science and technol-ogy workforce issues at the Research Centerfor University Studies at Tsukuba University.

CHINA: QUANTITY OUTWEIGHS QUALITY?

The number of PhD holders in China is goingthrough the roof, with some 50,000 peoplegraduating with doctorates across all disci-plines in 2009 and by some counts it nowsurpasses all other countries. The main prob-lem is the low quality of many graduates.

Yongdi Zhou, a cognitive neuroscientist at

the East China Normal University in Shanghai,

THE PHD FACTOYThe world is producing morePhDs than ever before.Is it time to stop?

EVERYONE TENDS TO LOOK AT

THE FUTURE OF THE PHD LABOUR

MARKET VERY PESSIMISTICALLY.

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identifies four contributing factors. Thelength of PhD training, at three years, is tooshort, many PhD supervisors are not wellqualified, the system lacks quality control andthere is no clear mechanism for weeding outpoor students.

Even so, most Chinese PhD holders canfind a job at home: Chinas booming economy

and capacity building has absorbed them intothe workforce. Relatively speaking, it is alot easier to find a position in academia inChina compared with the United States, saysYigong Shi, a structural biologist at TsinghuaUniversity in Beijing, and the same is true inindustry. But PhD graduates can run intoproblems if they want to enter internation-ally competitive academia. To get a covetedpost at a top university or research institutionrequires training, such as a postdoctoral posi-tion, in another country. Many researchersdo not return to China, draining away thecream of the countrys crop.

The quality issue should be helped byChinas efforts to recruit more scholarsfrom abroad. Shi says that more institu-tions are now starting to introduce thesiscommittees and rotations, which willmake students less dependent on a singlesupervisor in a hierarchical system. Majorinitiatives are being implemented in variousgraduate programmes throughout China,he says. China is constantly going throughtransformations.

SINGAPORE: GROWTH IN ALL DIRECTIONS

The picture is much rosier in Singapore.Here, the past few years have seen majorinvestment and expansion in the universitysystem and in science and technology infra-structure, including the foundation of twonew publicly funded universities. This hasattracted students from at home and abroad.Enrolment of Singaporean nationals in PhDprogrammes has grown by 60% over the pastfive years, to 789 in all disciplines and thecountry has actively recruited foreign gradu-ate students from China, India, Iran, Turkey,eastern Europe and farther afield.

Because the university system in Singa-pore has been underdeveloped until now,

most PhD holders go to work outside aca-demia, but continued expansion of theuniversities could create more opportuni-ties. Not all end up earning a living fromwhat they have been trained in, says PeterNg, who studies biodiversity at the NationalUniversity of Singapore. Some have verydifferent jobs from teachers to bankers.

But they all get a good job. A PhD can belucrative, says Ng, with a graduate earningat least S$4,000 (US$3,174) a month, com-pared with the S$3,000 a month earned by astudent with a good undergraduate degree.

I see a PhD not just as the mastery of adiscipline, but also training of the mind,says Ng. If they later practise what they havemastered excellent otherwise, they cantake their skill sets into a new domain andadd value to it.

UNITED STATES: SUPPLY VERSUS DEMAND

To Paula Stephan, an economist at Georgia

State University in Atlanta who studies PhDtrends, it is scandalous that US politicianscontinue to speak of a PhD shortage. TheUnited States is second only to China inawarding science doctorates it producedan estimated 19,733 in the life sciences andphysical sciences in 2009 and productionis going up. But Stephan says that no oneshould applaud this trend, unless Congresswants to put money into creating jobs forthese people rather than just creating supply.

The proportion of people with sciencePhDs who get tenured academic positionsin the sciences has been dropping steadilyand industry has not fully absorbed theslack. The problem is most acute in the lifesciences, in which the pace of PhD growthis biggest, yet pharmaceutical and biotech-nology industries have been drasticallydownsizing in recent years. In 1973, 55%of US doctorates in the biological sciencessecured tenure-track positions within sixyears of completing their PhDs, and only2% were in a postdoc or other untenuredacademic position. By 2006, only 15% werein tenured positions six years after graduat-ing, with 18% untenured (see What shallwe do about all the PhDs?). Figures suggest

JAPAN AUSTRALIA POLAND UNITED

KINGDOM

UNITED

STATESCANADA

GERMANY HUNGARYMEXICOCHINA KOREAINDIADENMARK

17.1%

40%

7.1%8.5%10%

6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 5.2%2.5% 1% 0% 2.2%

e rise of doctoratesMajor expansion of higher education has boosted PhD output in many countries, shown hereas average annual growth of doctoral degrees across all disciplines, 19982006.

India hopes to

dramatically increase

PhDs by 2020.

Expansion of the higher-

education system after the

fall of Communism has

led to growth.

Patterns of PhD production

1990 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

CHINA

GERMANY

49,698

16,296

16,606

25,604

50

60

40

30

20

10

0

98 99 0 0 01 02 0 3 04 05 06 0 7 08

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

30

20

10

0

Rate of productionstagnating incomparison withcompetitors.

UNITED KINGDOM

Trends in annual PhD graduation across all disciplines.All figures given in thousands of PhDs.

5

0

10

15

20 JAPAN

0

5

10

15

20

By some counts, China has

overtaken the United Statesto become the worldsbiggest producer of PhDs.

A policy to increase PhDsin science has not beenmatched by jobs, leadingto a slowdown.

Growth has been fuelled byoverseas doctoral students;recent cost-cutting hasslowed growth.

SOURCE:OECD/CHINESEMINISTRYOFEDUCATION

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that more doctorates are taking jobs that donot require a PhD. Its a waste of resources,says Stephan. Were spending a lot of money

training these students and then they go outand get jobs that theyre not well matched for.The poor job market has discouraged

some potential students from embarking onscience PhDs, says Hal Salzman, a professorof public policy at Rutgers University in NewBrunswick, New Jersey. Nevertheless, produc-tion of US doctorates continues apace, fuelledby an influx of foreign students. Academicresearch was still the top career choice in a2010 survey of 30,000 science and engineer-ing PhD students and postdocs, says HenrySauermann, who studies strategic manage-ment at the Georgia Institute of Technologyin Atlanta. Many PhD courses train studentsspecifically for that goal. Half of all scienceand engineering PhD recipients graduatingin 2007 had spent over seven years workingon their degrees, and more than one-third ofcandidates never finish at all.

Some universities are now experimentingwith PhD programmes that better preparegraduate students for careers outside academia(see page 280). Anne Carpenter, a cellular biolo-gist at the Broad Institute of the MassachusettsInstitute of Technology (MIT) and HarvardUniversity in Cambridge, Massachusetts, istrying to create jobs for existing PhD holders,while discouraging new ones. When she set up

her lab four years ago, Carpenter hired expe-rienced staff scientists on permanent contractsinstead of the usual mix of temporary postdocsand graduate students. The whole pyramidscheme of science made little sense to me, saysCarpenter. I couldnt in good conscience churnout a hundred graduate students and postdocsin my career.

But Carpenter has struggled to justify thecost of her staff to grant-review panels. How doI compete with labora-tories that hire postdocsfor $40,000 instead of a

scientist for $80,000?

she asks. Although she remains committed toher ideals, she says that she will be more opento hiring postdocs in the future.

GERMANY: THE PROGRESSIVE PHD

Germany is Europes biggest producer ofdoctoral graduates, turning out some 7,000science PhDs in 2005. After a major redesignof its doctoral education programmes over thepast 20 years, the country is also well on its wayto solving the oversupply problem.

Traditionally, supervisors recruited PhDstudents informally and trained them to fol-low in their academic footsteps, with littleoversight from the university or research insti-tution. But as in the rest of Europe, the numberof academic positions available to graduates inGermany has remained stable or fallen. Sothese days, a PhD in Germany is often mar-keted as advanced training not only for aca-

demia a career path pursued by the best ofthe best but also for the wider workforce.

Universities now play a more formal role

in student recruitment and development, andmany students follow structured courses outsidethe lab, including classes in presenting, reportwriting and other transferable skills. Just under6% of PhD graduates in science eventually gointo full-time academic positions, and most willfind research jobs in industry, says ThorstenWilhelmy, who studies doctoral education forthe German Council of Science and Humani-ties in Cologne. The long way to professorshipin Germany and the relatively low income ofGerman academic staff makes leaving the uni-versity after the PhD a good option, he says.

Thomas Jrgensen, who heads a programme

to support and develop doctoral education for

the European University Association, basedin Brussels, is concerned that German institu-tions could push reforms too far, leaving stu-

dents spending so long in classes that they lacktime to do research for their thesis and developcritical-thinking skills. The number of Ger-man doctorates has stagnated over the pasttwo decades, and Jrgensen worries about thisat a time when PhD production is growing inChina, India and other increasingly powerfuleconomies.

POLAND: EXPANSION AT A COST

Growth in PhD numbers among Europes oldguard might be waning, but some of the formerEastern bloc countries, such as Poland, haveseen dramatic increases. In 199091, Polishinstitutions enrolled 2,695 PhD students. Thisfigure rose to more than 32,000 in 200809as the Polish government, trying to expandthe higher-education system after the fall ofCommunism, introduced policies to rewardinstitutions for enrolling doctoral candidates.

Despite the growth, there are problems.A dearth of funding for doctoral studies causeshigh drop-out rates, says Andrzej Kraniewski,a researcher at Warsaw University of Technol-ogy and secretary-general of the Polish RectorsConference, an association representing Polishuniversities. In engineering, more than half ofstudents will not complete their PhDs, he says.The countrys economic growth has not kept

pace with that of its PhD numbers, so peoplewith doctorates can end up taking jobs belowtheir level of expertise. And Poland needs tocollect data showing that PhDs from its insti-tutions across the country are of consistentquality, and are comparable with the rest ofEurope, says Kraniewski.

Still, in Poland as in most countries,unemployment for PhD holders is below 3%.Employment prospects for holders of doc-torates remain better than for other higher-education graduates, says Laudeline Auriol,author of an OECD report on doctorateholders between 1990 and 2006, who is now

analysing doctoral-student data up to 2010.

Medical and life sciences

Biological sciences

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Physical sciences

Social sciences

PHDS AWARDED TIME TO COMPLETION EMPLOYMENT OF DOCTORATES

1993 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

0

2

4

6

8

10

Biological sciences

Earth, atmosphericand ocean sciences

Full-time tenured or tenure-track

Physical sciences

United States: What shall we do about all the PhDs?

83 87 91 95 99 03 071979 1981 85 89 93 97 01 05

10

20

30

40

50

%

Years

NumberofPhDs

Postdoc

Full-time nontenured nonfaculty

Part time

The annual number of science and engineering doctorates graduating from US universities rose to almost 41,000 in 2007 (left), with thebiggest growth in medical and life sciences. It took a median of 7.2 years to complete a science or engineering PhD (middle) yet theproportion finding full time academic jobs within 13 years of graduating is dwindling (right).

THE RELATIVELY LOW INCOME OF

GERMAN ACADEMIC STAFF MAKES

LEAVING THE UNIVERSITY AFTER

THE PHD A GOOD OPTION.

SOURCE:SCIENC

EAND

ECONOMICINDICATORS2010

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Still, a survey of scientists by Naturelast yearshowed that PhD holders were not alwaysmore satisfied with their jobs than those with-out the degree, nor were they earning sub-stantially more (see Whats a PhD worth?).

EGYPT: STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE

Egypt is the Middle Easts powerhouse for

doctoral studies. In 2009, the country hadabout 35,000 students enrolled in doctoralprogrammes, up from 17,663 in 1998. But fund-ing has not kept up with demand. The major-ity comes through university budgets, whichare already strained by the large enrolment ofstudents in undergraduate programmes andpostgraduate studies other than PhDs. Universi-ties have started turning to international fundingand collaborations with the private sector, butthis source of funding remains very limited.

The deficit translates into shortages in equip-ment and materials, a lack of qualified teachingstaff and poor compensation for researchers. It

also means that more of the funding burden isfalling on the students. The squeeze takes a tollon the quality of research, and creates tensionbetween students and supervisors. The PhDstudent here in Egypt faces numerous prob-lems, says Mounir Hana, a food scientist andPhD supervisor at Minia University, who saysthat he tries to help solve them. Unfortunately,many supervisors do not bother, and end upadding one more hurdle in the students way.

Graduates face a tough slog. As elsewhere,there are many more PhD holders in Egyptthan the universities can employ as researchersand academics. The doctorate is frequently ameans of climbing the civil-service hierarchy,but those in the private sector often complainthat graduates are untrained in the practicalskills they need, such as proposal writing andproject management. Egyptian PhD holdersalso struggle to secure international researchpositions. Hana calls the overall quality oftheir research papers mediocre and saysthat pursuing a PhD is worthless except forthose already working in a university. But thepolitical upheaval in the region this year couldbring about change: many academics who hadleft Egypt are returning, hoping to help rebuildand overhaul education and research.

Few PhDs are trained elsewhere in the

Middle East less than 50 a year in Lebanon,for example. But several world-class universi-ties established in the oil-rich Gulf States inrecent years have increased demand for PhDholders. So far, most of the researchers havebeen imported after receiving their degreesfrom Western universities, but Saudi Arabiaand Qatar in particular have been building uptheir infrastructure to start offering more PhDprogrammes themselves. The effect will be feltthroughout the region, says Fatma Hammad,an endocrinologist and PhD supervisor atAl-Azhar University in Cairo. Many graduatesare now turning to doctoral studies because

there is a large demand in the Gulf States. For

them, it is a way to land jobs there and increasetheir income, she says.

INDIA: PHDS WANTED

In 2004, India produced around 5,900 sci-ence, technology and engineering PhDs, a fig-ure that has now grown to some 8,900 a year.This is still a fraction of the number fromChina and the United States, and the coun-try wants many more, to match the explosivegrowth of its economy and population. Thegovernment is making major investments in

research and higher education includinga one-third increase in the higher-educationbudget in 201112 and is trying to attractinvestment from foreign universities. Thehope is that up to 20,000 PhDs will gradu-ate each year by 2020, says ThirumalachariRamasami, the Indian governments head ofscience and technology.

Those targets ought to be easy to reach:Indias population is young, and undergraduateeducation is booming (see Nature472,2426;2011). But there is little incentive to continueinto a lengthy PhD programme, and onlyaround 1% of undergraduates currently do so.

Most are intent on securing jobs in industry,

which require only an undergraduate degreeand are much more lucrative than the public-sector academic and research jobs that needpostgraduate education. Students dont thinkof PhDs now, not even masters a bachelorsis good enough to get a job, says Amit Patra, anengineer at the Indian Institute of Technologyin Kharagpur.

Even after a PhD, there are few academicopportunities in India, and better-paid indus-try jobs are the major draw. There is a shortageof PhDs and we have to compete with industry

for that resource the universities have verylittle chance of winning that game, says Patra.For many young people intent on postgraduateeducation, the goal is frequently to go to theUnited States or Europe. That was the coursechosen by Manu Prakash, who went to MIT forhis PhD and now runs his own experimentalbiophysics lab at Stanford University in Califor-nia. When I went through the system in India,the platform for doing long-term research Ididnt feel was well-supported, he says.

Reporting byDavid Cyranoski, NatashaGilbert, Heidi Ledford, Anjali Nayarand

Mohammed Yahia.

Location

Working

conditions

Opportunitiesto advance

Intellectualchallenge

Level ofresponsibility

Degree ofindependence

Contributionto society

35

40

30

25

20

15

10

5

People with a PhDarent much happier

WITHOUT A PHDWITH A PHD

SCALE OF DISSATISFACTION

Whats a PhD worth?

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Asia Europe United States

Salary

Benefits

Number satisfied with their

job 610 years after

achieving their highestqualification.

they gripe about benefits,

but like the intellectual challenge

and most arent much richer.

SatisfiedSatisfied NeutralNeutral

Not Not

PhDs

Salary(US$)

Average salary 610 years after achievinghighest qualification.

Non-PhDs

Job security

Social status

Percentage of doctorate holders dissatisfiedwith employment situation, by reason

SOURCE:OECD

NATURESALARY&

CAREERSURVEY2010

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