the past, present, and future of nuclear power - …...nuclear power – the past, present and...
TRANSCRIPT
The Past, Present, and Future of Nuclear
PowerA Regulator’s Perspective
Chairman Gregory B. JaczkoU.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
May 18, 2010
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What is the Nuclear Regulatory Commission?
5 Commissioners 4000 Staff – and we are
hiring Created in 1954 as the
Atomic Energy Commission Regulation and promotional
pieces split into the Department of Energy and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
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What do we do?
The NRC’s mission is to regulate civilian uses of nuclear material Protect public health and safety Promote common defense and
security Protect the environment
Major activities Licensing Oversight Research Rulemaking Incident Response
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Where do we fit in the federal government?
The NRC mostly reports to the Congress
The President appoints Commissioners who are confirmed by the Senate
The President designates one of the Commissioners as Chairman – That’s me
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Nuclear Power – The Past, Present and Future?
“Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter....”
Lewis Strauss, Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, 1954
“Once claimed to be too cheap to meter, nuclear power is now too expensive to matter.”
The Economist Magazine, 2001
2010 and beyond?
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THE PAST(putting more scientific rigor to
regulation)
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Historical Approach to Licensing and Oversight
Deterministic
Single failure criteria
Redundancy
Diversity
Defense-in-depth
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Operational Experience
Prior to 1975, fire treated as a industrial hazard
Browns Ferry Fire March 22, 1975 fire in cable
spreading room and reactor building
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Fire Damage 117 Conduits 26 Cable Trays 1611cables 628 safety related 114 common to both Units
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Response to Fire
Backfit requirements on plants Many exemptions requiring compensatory measures Directed toward assuring plant shutdown and core
cooling Very prescriptive
Defines defense in depth for fires Prevent fires Detect, control and extinguish fires Protect equipment for plant shutdown and cooling
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More Operational Experience
1979 198615
What happened to all the plant applications
More than 200 license applications for plants 104 operating today
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1955
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1975
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1985
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1995
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2010
Construction Permits Issued
Operating Licenses Issued
Operating Units
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Beginnings of Risk-Informed Regulation Recognition of challenges to
reactor safety from accidents outside the design basis
WASH-1400, “Reactor Safety Study – An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants,” 1975 Early attempt to measure
plant risk Results showed low risk, but
the study was controversial at the time
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Beginnings of Risk-Informed Regulation Policy Statement, “Safety Goals for the Operations of Nuclear
Power Plants,” 1986 How safe is safe enough? Qualitative Health Objectives
Individual members of the public should be provided a level of protection from the consequences of nuclear power plant operation such that individuals bear no significant additional risk to life and health
Societal risks to life and health from nuclear power plant operation should be comparable to or less than the risk of generating electricity by viable competing technologies and should not be a significant addition to other societal risks
Quantitative Health Objectives The risk to an average individual in the vicinity of a nuclear power plant of prompt
fatalities that might result from reactor accidents should not exceed one-tenth of one percent (0.1%) of the sum of prompt fatality risks resulting from other accident to which members of the U.S. population are generally exposed
The risk to the population in the area of nuclear power plant of cancer fatalities that might result from nuclear power plant operation should not exceed one-tenth of one percent (0.1%) of the sum of cancer fatality risks resulting from all other causes
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Beginnings of Risk-Informed Regulation
NUREG-1150, “Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants,” 1990
Systematic study of internal and external events for Surry, Peach Bottom, Sequoyah, Grand Gulf, and Zion
Indicated that the current generation of nuclear power plants exceeds NRC safety goals Average probability of an individual early fatality per reactor per year
NRC Safety Goal: 5 x 10-7 Typical PWR: 2 x 10-8 Typical BWR: 5 x 10-11
Average probability of an individual latent cancer death per reactor per year: NRC Safety Goal: 2 x 10-6 Typical PWR: 2 x 10-9 Typical BWR: 4 x 10-10
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Beginnings of Risk-Informed Regulation Policy Statement, “Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Methods in Nuclear Regulatory Activities,” 1995 Encouraged the use of PRA in all regulatory matters
“the use of PRA technology should be increased to the extent supported by the state-of-the-art in PRA methods and data and in a manner that complements the NRC’s deterministic approach”
Potential applications of PRA should be implemented in a consistent and predictable manner that promotes regulatory stability and efficiency
A probabilistic approach to regulation enhances and extends the traditional deterministic approach Allows consideration of a broader set of potential challenges to safety Provides a logical means to prioritize challenges based on risk significance Allows consideration of a broader set of resources to defend against the
challenges
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THE PRESENT(better regulatory science)
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Potential Mixed Generations of Reactors
104 operating nuclear power plants 22 new plant applications 4 design certifications issued (ABWR, System 80+,
AP600, AP1000) 3 design certifications applications under review 2 design certification amendments under review Proposed design reviews for small modular reactors DOE federal loan guarantees to support the construction
of $18 billion worth of nuclear plants Cost for a single nuclear power plant $6-$10 billion
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Safety of the Operating Reactors
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6 “New” Plants in last 15 Years Increase in safety and operational performance 5700 MWe from power uprates
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Yearly
Cumulative
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Potential New Reactors
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THE FUTURE?(politics)
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The Politics
The Congress is considering greater restrictions on emissions of green house gases
The House has passed legislation The Senate has not considered legislation Nuclear could benefit from putting a price
on carbon emissions
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The Deal for Climate Legislation
The easiest way to get things done in Washington is to have Democrats and Republicans agree
Energy issues are regional Could enough coal state Democrats support a
price on carbon if there is support for new nuclear power?
Could enough pro-nuclear Republicans agree to setting a price for carbon?
Stay tuned…
US NRC – Places to Work First out of 250 other Federal Agencies Among our “Best in Class” ratings, the NRC was: #1 Large Agency Rankings #1 Strategic Management #1 Effective Leadership #1 Work / Life Balance #1 Among African Americans #1 Among Hispanics #1 Among Women #1 Among Employees Under 40 #1 Pay and Benefits
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