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IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
The Next Wave of Mobile Services and Experiences
Stephen SuGeneral Director
Industrial Economics and Knowledge Center (IEK)Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI)
Jun 20, 2012
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed 1
Contents
• Introduction of ITRI/IEK
• Trends: From Service to Experience
• Key Emerging Mobile Industries
• Conclusion: Moving Forward with Taiwan
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed 2
IEK is a key linkage center within ITRI
ITRI College ITRI South & Central
• Electronics & Optoelectronics• Information & Communications• Mechanical & Systems• Material & Chemical• Green Energy & Environment• Biomedical Technology and Device
• Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center (IEK)
• Creativity Lab
• Nanotechnology Research Center
• Center for Measurement Standards
• Display Technology Center
• Service System Technology Center
• Cloud Computing Center for Mobile Application
Business Development Units• ITRI International Center• Technology Transfer Center• Comm. and Industry Service Center
Core Labs(Technology & Innovation)
Focus Centers(Technology Integration)
Linkage Centers(Industry-oriented)
• Total Staff : 5,763• Total Patents: 16,668• Spin-offs: 71• Start-ups: 171
Source: ITRI (2012/03)
71 spin-off companies, and 171 companies from Open Lab since 1973
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Increasing ITRI/IEK research focus onconsumer needs and application scenarios
Source: IEK of ITRI (2012/03)
http://ieknet.iek.org.tw
IEK
Electronics& SystemResearch
Mechanical & SystemsResearch
EnergyResearch
Materials & Chemical Research
Life Style &HealthcareResearch
City TechnologyApplications
Government Policy & Regional Research
Products and solutions opportunities
Consumer needs and applications scenarios
Market and industry trends
Technology development roadmap
Technology foresight
3
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed 4
Contents
• Introduction of ITRI/IEK
• Trends: From Service to Experience
• Key Emerging Mobile Industries
• Conclusion: Moving Forward with Taiwan
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Mobile Trend: Consumer surrounded by Mobile Data
Mobile Data grows 10 times (Year 2011~2015)
Source: Cisco; NSN; IEK of ITRI (2012/06)
Mobile Data grows 1,000 times (Year 2011~2020)
Mobile Video takes 66% of Mobile Data (Year 2014) Driven by high-end Video Needs
5
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Mobile Trend: Infrastructure for Mobile Broadband era
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011~
EDGEDL: 474 kbpsUL: 474 kbps
Evolved EDGEDL: 1.9 MbpsUL: 974 kbps
HSDPADL: 14.4 MbpsUL: 384 kbpsIn 5 MHz
HSDPA/HSUPADL: 14.4 MbpsUL: 5.76 MbpsIn 5 MHz
Rel 7 HSPA+DL: 28 MbpsUL: 11.5 MbpsIn 5 MHz
Rel 8 HSPA+DL: 42 MbpsUL: 11.5 MbpsIn 5 MHz
LTE 2x2 MIMODL: 173 MbpsUL: 58 MbpsIn 20 MHz
LTE 4x4 MIMODL: 326 MbpsUL: 86 MbpsIn 20 MHz
EV-DO Rev 0DL: 2.4 MbpsUL: 153 kbpsIn 1.25 MHz
EV-DO Rev ADL: 3.1 MbpsUL: 1.8 MbpsIn 1.25 MHz
EV-DO Rev BDL: 14.7 MbpsUL: 4.9 MbpsIn 5 MHz
UMB 2x2 MIMODL: 140 MbpsUL: 34 MbpsIn 20 MHz
Fixed WiMAX
Wave 1DL: 23 MbpsUL: 4 Mbps10 MHz 3:1 TDD
Wave 2DL: 46 MbpsUL: 4 Mbps10 MHz 3:1 TDD
IEEE 802.16m
3GPP GSM EDGE Radio Access Network Evolution
3GPP UMTS Radio Access Network Evolution
3GPP Long Term Evolution
CDMA2000 Evolution
Mobile WiMAX Evolution
LTE-Advanced
WiMAX 2
Source: GSA; IEK of ITRI (2012/06)
Note:ITU’s definition to 4G(2010.10) includes LTE, WiMAX and HSPA+
6
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Mobile Trend : Smart Devices work with Cloud Vision
Offline(Reality)
Online(Virtual)
MobilePayment Member
NFC & MEC
LocalLocation PlaceLBS & Check In
SocialRelationshipSocial Media
Cloud Integration Services
O2O
M2M
Easy of Use
Clever Marketing
Differentiation
Effective Distribution
Fashionable Design
Personal Cloud will become widely adopted by 2015
Source: IEK of ITRI (2012/06) 7
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Market Premium
Irrelevant
Relevant
Undifferentiated
Differentiated
Competitive
Position
Consumer
Demand
Commodities
Goods
Services
Experience
Productize
Productize
Pricing
Customize
Customize
Make
Extract
Deliver
Stage
Trend: Paradigm shiftingfrom “Services” to “Experience”
Source: IEK of ITRI (2011/03) 8
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Trend: Service -based Applications Ecosystems for “Experience”
Source: IEK of ITRI (2011/09)
System & service integration
Cultural Innovations
Business Operations
Value-add ApplicationsSystem
Platform
Core C
ompetencies ( -
)
Material sourcing Basic R&D…
DesignArchitec-tureIP manage-ment…
Production Manage-mentCost controlLogistics…
MarketingChannel manage-mentServices…
Value chain clustering
Basic core competencies
Brandmarketing
ProductionCompo-nents
Material
Industry Value Chain (1990-2010)
1970
1990
9
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Trend: Changing market valuationfor new ecosystems
Industry Value Chain
Core C
ompetencies
Source: Cheng Wu; IEK of ITRI (2012/05)
Market Cap (2012/5)
Network:Cisco $89B, Juniper $18B
Software:Microsoft $245B, Oracle $127B, IBM $219B
Web Services:Facebook $81B, Groupon $8B, Zynga $7B, Linkedin $10B
New Ecosystems:Apple $495B, Google $195B
Server/Chip:HP $42B, Intel $122B, Dell $26B
10
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Leverage new ecosystems forhigh -margin and high -barrier competition
11
Communication
Information
ShoppingEntertainment
Safety
Connected HomeM2M
Source: IEK of ITRI (2012/06)
Cultural Innovations
Business Operations
Value-add ApplicationsSystem
Platform
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Ecosystems
Cultural Innovations
Business Operations
Value-add Applications
System Platform
Commuting via subway and bus, Online shopping
Retailing, Home delivery, Public transportation
QR code, Apps for mobile purchasing
and payment
Smart handheld system, Cloud
system
Example: Service -based Applications Ecosystems for Retail
Source: IEK of ITRI (2012/03)
Korea Homeplus Service Scenario
12
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Example: Service -based Applications Ecosystems for education
Source: IEK of ITRI (2012/05)
Learning Service Scenario Ecosystems
Cultural Innovations
Business Operations
Value-add Applications
System Platform
Personalization learning habits
Library, School, e-reader services
e-Library, e-Textbook, Apps for online
reading
Smart handheld system, Cloud
systemDesktop computer
e-Reader
Studying
Reading
e-learning Platforme-learning Platform
Portable Device
Cloud-based interactive learning and creation
13
Individual learning at library
Group learning and creation via Cloud
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed 14
Contents
• Introduction of ITRI/IEK
• Trends: From Service to Experience
• Key Emerging Mobile Industries
• Conclusion: Moving Forward with Taiwan
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
ICTization and virtualization ofnew distribution channels
Source: Cheng Wu from “The New ICT Enabled Consumer and Social Networking Economy” (2012/05)
15
Phase I
Phase II
Phase IIIVirtual Store Fronts (Online service or payment)
• Amazon, Netflix, Wal-Mart
Integration of Online and Offline Ecosystem (O2O)
• Sociality, Locality and Mobility• Discovery and Personalization• Emergence of “Smart Enterprise Back Office”
End to end control (Apple, Google)• Direct to Consumers (D2C) push• Smart phone application economy• Control of smart gadgets and back office CRM
Traditional Distribution Channels
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed 16
Shipment trend of Mobile Devices
418.5 633.3 878.92011(e) 2013(f) 2015(f)
Smartphone
Unit: Million
41.3 90.9 100.0 2011(e) 2013(f) 2015(f)
Tablet PC
Unit: Million
Smartphones
Tablet PC
50
100
150
500
1,000
• CPU::::Snapdragon S2• Display ::::4.7 inch• GPU::::Adreno 205• RAM::::512MB• GSM/HSPA+• OS::::Windows Phone
7.5, Mango
HTC Titan Smartphone
Major Products in Taiwan
Asus Transformer Tablet PC
• Dimension:271 x 176 x 12.9 mm
• Display: 10.1 inch with IPS
• Weight: 680g
Source: IEK of ITRI (2012/02)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed 17
Shipment trend of Touch Panels
2011(e) 2013(f) 2015(f)Touch Panel
Unit: Million
8,700 12,298 14,0572011(e) 2013(f) 2015(f)
Touch Panel
Unit: Million USD
Touch Panel Shipments
500
1000
1500
1,000
2,000
Touch Panel Revenues
1,055 1,475 1,872
Future applications of Touch Panel
Source: Display Search; IEK of ITRI (2012/02)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Em
bedd
ed
2015 20202012
Interior Display
Smart Mirror
OLED TV
AMOLED Smart Phone
AutomotiveAR Display
TransparentAR Handheld
Flexible Smart Paper
Flexible AMOLED Phone
Immersive Display
E-readerTouch
FoldableHandheld
Public Video Wall
Future applications in flexible displayThin、、、、Transparent 、、、、Flexible 、、、、Smart
18
Por
tabl
e
Source: IEK of ITRI (2012/02)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed 19
Emerging Industries for Cloud Services
Cloud Service Market
Computing and storage Resources providing an application platform as a service
VirtualizedResources
ManagedOperations
ElasticResourceCapacity
UtilityPricing
ManagementAutomation
Third-partyOwnership
Self-ServiceProvisioning
Economic Elements ::::
Pay-as-you-go,Pay-as-you-grow,no CAPEX
Architectural Elements ::::
Simple, abstract environment for development
Strategic Elements ::::
Focus on core business,Leave the rest tosomeone else.
Cloud Services for Business Users
Source: IEK of ITRI (2012/02)
Unit: Billions US$
28 43 64
2011(e) 2013(f) 2015(f)
40
80
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed 20
Internet News
Weather, Traffic Alerts
GPS Map
Video Streaming
Document
IT Services (CRM 、、、、ERP)
Mobile Office
Social Network
Online Gaming
Data Storage
Video Conferencing
Concurrent
Video Surveillance
Emerging Industries for Digital Convergence
Insurance agent RetailMedicalEducation Car agentLetting agent Interior design Business
Source: IEK of ITRI (2012/02)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed 21
Contents
• Introduction of ITRI/IEK
• Trends: From Service to Experience
• Key Emerging Mobile Industries
• Conclusion: Moving Forward with Taiwan
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed 22
Nankang Software Park
Hsinchu Science Park
Central Taiwan Science Park Taichung Precision Park
Changhua Coastal Industrial Park
Southern Taiwan Science Park & Yongkang Technology Industrial Park
Kaohsiung Linhai & Software Industrial park
1.5 h N to S
Complete ICT industrial value chains and clustering within Taiwan
Global ICT products/services made by Taiwan
World No. 1- Foundry - IC Packaging & Testing- Mask ROM- PND - xDSL CPE, Cable CPE - WLAN, Motherboard - Server, LCD monitor- NB, Desktop PC
World No. 2 - IC Design - Large size (>10”)TFT LCD- Small size (<10”)TFT LCD- TN/STN LCD- OLED Panel- DSC
Source: IEK of ITRI (2012/02)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Taiwan industrial developmentshifting to innovation focus
23
1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s
Labor intensive
Light industries
Heavy industries
Capital intensive
Technology intensive
Knowledge intensive
Innovation focus
US$ 35,604
10X in 30 yrs
US$ 3,570
GDP per capita (PPP 1)
1: Adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for proper country comparison. In 2010, nominal GDP per capita is US$ 18,588.
Source: IEK of ITRI (2011)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Brand and manufacturing are two growth engines for future Taiwan industries
• Require long-term investment�Leverage
China�SE as
springboard� International
talentsInnovative R&D
&Service
Integration
Brand
Manufacturing
• Innovative R&D as fuel• Service integration as guidance
• Leverage manufacturing capabilities for regional manufacturing HQ�Smart
manufacturing system�Service oriented�Cloud system
24 24Source: IEK of ITRI (2011/09)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Leverage ICT strengthsto maximize team -up effort
• Today: Mobile devices manufacturing capabilities, a nd key components supplier• Next: Develop localized ecosystems to enhance produ ct differentiation and key
components• Future: Become the leading development and innovati on hub in the world
Key
Components
Mobile
Device
Localized EcosystemsProduct Differentiation
PlatformApplications
& Services
Enhance Key Components
Innovation of Applications and Services
System integration
Smart TV Interface Open Systems
Display, Memory…
25Source: IEK of ITRI (2012/06)
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Taiwan pivotal in pilot testing future ecosystems for China and global markets
Leadership in global market
(e.g. ICT)
Pilot test ecosystems before entering to China
(e.g. Digital Convergence )
Joint force for global market (e.g. Telecom)
26
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
Moving forward with Taiwan
27
Value of Taiwan as a global partner:
• Complete industrial value chains and clustering
• Industrial development shifting to innovation focus
• Brand and manufacturing as two growth engines
• Leverage ICT strengths to maximize team -up effort
• Pivotal in pilot testing future ecosystems
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
http://ieknet.iek.org.tw/
Stephen SuGeneral [email protected]+886-3-591-2548
Thanks
Chao-Yin ChiDeputy Division [email protected]+886-3-591-4451
IEK產業經濟與趨勢研究中心
Copyright 2012All Rights Reversed 29
Present Position:� General Director, Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center (IEK) of
Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI)
Professional Experiences:� Principal, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Shanghai� Sr. Director, Consumer Electronics, Primax Electronics Ltd., Taipei� Director, Corporate Development, Primax Electronics Ltd., Taipei� Case Leader, Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Hong Kong� Applications Engineer, Semiconductor Group, Motorola, Phoenix
Education:� Senior Executive Program for China (SEPC) by Harvard, CEIBS, Tsinghua University� MBA from Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, USA� Electrical Engineering MS from California Institute of Technology, USA� Electrical Engineering and Computer Science BS from UC Berkeley, USA
Professional Specialty:� Strategy, operations Improvement, organization change management, business process
redesign, new product development and marketing, investment due diligence, manufacturing management
� Chairman of Committee on Regulations and Standards, Cloud Computing Association in Taiwan (CCAT) (2010-Present)
� Executive Director, Asia Pacific Industrial Analysts Association (APIAA) (2011-Present)
Stephen Su ( 蘇孟宗)