emerging trends and applications of iot in post … trends and applications of iot in...

Emerging Trends and Applications of IoT in

Post-Smartphone Era

Jui-Lin (Ray) YangDeputy Program Director

ITRI / IEK

9/7/2016

Five Must-know for Semiconductor Industry in

Internet of Things, in 2014 the same forum• Wearable: huge opportunity for combining semiconductor devices

and indirect-approach algorithm. Semiconductor companies

should consider to extend its arm to OS platform.

• Smart Home: a potential new war between the OTT and

semiconductor "pipe" companies.

• Vertical market: Even if it's inevitable to be a "pipe", wireless

connectivity solution vendors are still provided to address

business opportunity of resolving unfulfilled needs.

• Infrastructure: The foreseen distributed architecture and local

computing/server node shall create new business opportunity for

semiconductor industry.

• China: in IoT if you cannot beat it, Join him.

Source: ITRI/IEK(2014/09)

Outline

• Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Overview

• Market trends of IoT in B2C and B2B sectors

• Development trends of IoT and AI applications

• Conclusion

Taiwan Semiconductor Industry

Overview

Taiwan’s key sub-industries of manufacturingSemiconductor is the largest

Manufacturing

Information &

Electronic

Industry

Metal &

Machinery

Industry

Semiconductor

Sub-Industry

Chemical

Industry

Food, Textile &

Other Industry

Machine Tools

Sub-Industry

Petrochemical

Sub-Industry

Textile

Sub-Industry

Production value (share):

19,183(100%)

Unit: NT$ billion (2014)

6,284 (32.8%)

5,344 (27.9%)

5,305 (27.7%)

2,249 (11.7%)

2,203 (11.5%)

150.9 (0.8%)

1,842 (9.6%)

411 (2.1%)

Source: DGBAS ; ITRI/IEK(2015)

2014 Semi industry ranked first in value-

added among Taiwan’s manufacturing sectors

Ma

nu

fac

turi

ng

Va

lue

-Ad

de

d R

ate

(%

)

Fixed Assets Investment / Production Value (%)

Bubble size represents the production value

Source: MOEA ; ITRI/IEK(2015)

2014

Taiwan IC industry outperformed W/W in last

10 years, and about to reach $74.9B in 2016

Source: TSIA ; ITRI/IEK(2016/08)

2005-2017 CAGR

Taiwan : 7.1%

Worldwide : 3.2%

Foundry contributes the most to Taiwan IC

industry, with fabless the 2nd

Taiwan IC production value distribution


Taiwan IC packaging and testing service

accounts for more than half of W/W SATSWorldwide SATS Revenue


Market trends of IoT in B2C and

B2B sectors

IoT is driving both Smart Living and Productivity

Smart Living

(B2C)

• Smart Living: B2C focus; Data analytics as latest thrust

• Productivity: B2B focus; Industry 4.0 as latest thrust

IT 1.0

Digital

IT 2.0

Internet

IT 3.0

Data

Industry 1.0

Capital

Intensive

Industry 2.0

Technology

Intensive

Industry 3.0

Innovation

Intensive

Industry 4.0

Cyber

Intensive

Productivity

(B2B)

Internet of Things (IoT)

Cloud

Big Data

User Insight

e-Commerce

Cyber

Physical

SystemMachining

3D Printing

Social Network

Internet

Source: Michael Porter(2014); ITRI/IEK(2015)

These are what we have today for Smart Living…

Smart Living

Gas DetectorSmart Lighting

Smoke Detector

IP Cam

Smart Locks

Smart Plug

Smart Meter

Smart Appliance

Thermostat

In Home Display

Smart ClothSmart Shoes

Smart Blood Glucose MeterSmart Feeding BottleVR HMD

Gesture Recognition

Game Console

Home Energy

Management

Home Security and

Safety

Healthcare and

Fitness

Information and

Entertainment

Robotics Fitness Tracker

Personal

Drone


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Automotive Health and Fitness

Home Energy Management Home Security and Safety

Information and Entertainment

Potential in automotive, home security, and

smart energy sectors

Source: Gartner ; ITRI/IEK(2016/09)

CAGR(2016~20): 25.4%

CAGR(2016~20): 59.4%

CAGR(2016~20): 48.4%

CAGR(2016~20): 42.4%

CAGR(2016~20): 16.3%

Millions of IoT endpoint

unit shipments

Smartwatches

HMD

Wearable Cameras

Bluetooth Headsets

Wristbands

Smart GarmentsSports Watches

Other Fitness Monitors

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%

Wearable device’s potential in smartwatch,

head-mounted display, and smart garments

CAGR(%) 2015~2020

Millions of

unit

shipments

in 2020


Fitness Wearables

Smart Watches

Smart Glasses and HMD/camerasOther Wearables

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 200%

High BOM of smartwatch and HMD creates

larger wearables semiconductor revenue

CAGR(%) 2015~2020

Wearables

semiconductor

revenue in

2020 ($M)


Sports watches, smart

garments, wristbands…

Bluetooth headsets,

miscellaneous wearables…26% of semi revenue

18% of semi revenue

28% of semi revenue

Smart

Business

Security & Safety Manufacturing &

Natural Resources

Utilities & Energy

Management

Transportation &

Automotive

Smart Electric Meters

Smart Plant Integrity

(Process Sensor)

Smart Gas Meters

Farming Equipment

Subsystem

Connected Field

Devices-Manufacturing

Asset Tracking-

Freight Pallets

Heavy Truck

subsystem

Shipment

Condition

Monitor

Motion Sensor

Commercial

Security Cameras

Electronics

Door Locks

Oil / Gas Well Sensor

These are what we have for Smart Business…


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Physical Security Manufacturing & Natural Resources

Transportation & Automotive Utilities & Energy Management

Potential in utilities, security, and

transportation sectors

CAGR(2016~20): 31.1%

CAGR(2016~20): 39.6%

CAGR(2016~20): 15%

CAGR(2016~20): 51.7%

Millions of IoT endpoint

unit shipments


Source: NHTSA(National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ) ; ITRI/IEK(2016/09)

Today

L1：Driver

Assistant

L2：Partial

Autonomy

L3：Limited

Self-driving

L4：Full Self-

driving

L5：Self-

driving only

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Adaptive Cruise

Control

Autonomous braking

ACC&LKA

Park Assist

Traffic Jam

Highway

Parking

Road Train

Self-driving & Human-driven

car

Self-driving car only

Assistance

Control speed or direction

Control speed and

direction

Control、Judgment、Partial Processing

Control、Judgment、Fully Processing

NHTSA defines 5 levels for driving automation, and most of existing ADAS in smart vehicle can

only reach Level 2 to control speed or direction via Adaptive Cruise Control, Autonomous braking,

Lane Keeping Assist, and Park Assist.

ADAS will continue to upgrade thus bring about huge opportunities for semiconductor industry.

Autono

mous

Vehicle

ADAS

ADAS developments for drivers’ &

passengers’ safety


Sensing, Understanding, Action as

3 key requirements for autonomous vehicle Sensing: Variety of sensors (CMOS Image /IR Sensor、mm Wave Radar、LIDAR、Ultrasound...) will need to work

together thus a multi-sensing fusion solution is required

Understanding: Sensor fusion solution will need to work with high performance CPU/GPU with AI(Machine Learning,

Deep Learning) capability to understand the environment completely around the car

Action: the controller/actuator/communication system will start to work and process to realize autonomous functions

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

L1：Driver

Assistant

L2：Partial

AutonomyL3：Limited

Self-driving

L4：Full Self-

driving

L5：Self-

driving only

Sensing

Understanding

Action

Stereo Cameras(CIS、FIR)

mm Wave Radar、Ultrasound

LIDAR

High Performance CPU/GPU

AI (Machine Learning、Deep Learning…)

Big Data、Cloud Computing

Actuator、Controller

V2V Communication

Other Connected Car Communication

Protocol

NO-Off Feet-Off Hands-Off Eyes-Off Minds-OffAutonomous Vehicle

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Automotive — ADAS Automotive — Infotainment Head-Mounted Displays Security Camera

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

55.1%

47.5%

21.4%

114.1%

Millions of unit shipments

Imaging processing a key element across

applications


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Automotive — ADAS Automotive — InfotainmentHead-mounted display Security Camera

Millions of Dollars


ADAS and HMD are among the fast

semiconductor revenue growth segments

Development trends of IoT and AI

applications

Apple

Google

Intel

Infineon

Nvidia

Qualcomm

Ambarella

TI Xilinx

ARM

Synopsys

ASE

SPIL MTKTSMC

Baidu

Alibaba

Tencent

y = 55.013x - 3.1396

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

X-axis: Gross Margin as of fiscal year 2015

Y-axis: P/E Ratio as of 2016/07/E


The higher gross margin, the higher P/E

(positive correlation) with some exception

Intel

Infineon

Nvidia

Qualcomm

Ambarella

TI

Xilinx

ARM

Synopsys

ASE

SPILMTK

TSMC

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bubble size represents the revenue of 2015

P/E Ratio seems to be not closely related to

Sales Revenue




Intel

Infineon

Nvidia

Qualcomm

Ambarella

TI

Xilinx

ARM

Synopsys

ASE

SPIL

MTKTSMC

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Any potential M&A you expected?




Bubble size represents the market cap. of 2016/08/E

Olli- Local Motors’ first self-driving vehiclePowered by IBM Watson

• Olli, an electric-powered mini bus, can carry up to 12

people designed by Local Motors

• The cars will start operations first in Washington DC,

before expanding to deployments in Miami-Dade

County and Las Vegas later this year (2016)

Source：IBM

3D-Printed：Use 3D printing to bring

down the cost of making cars

IBM Watson：IBM Watson’s

capabilities help to improve the

passenger experience and allow

natural interaction, but do not control

or navigate or drive Olli

Sensors: About 30 sensors

embedded in the vehicle to collect

transportation information

Self-Learning：Olli’s knowledge will

grow based on those interactions

that generate data been collected

and analyzed afterwards

Vast amount of data generated by IoT is a

driving force to deep learning development

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Physical Security Manufacturing & NaturalResources

Transportation &Automotive

Utilities & EnergyManagement

2018 2019 2020

Millions of IoT units

Installed base- B2B


Pay attention on emerging IoT in Information

& Entertainment of B2C sector

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Automotive Health and Fitness Home EnergyManagement

Home Security andSafety

Information andEntertainment

2018 2019 2020Source: Gartner ; ITRI/IEK(2016/09)

Millions of IoT units

Installed base- B2C

Conclusion

Image / Video Processor, AI chip…

FO

Cost

PKG Size

Performance

Die Partition

3D Stacking

Thermal

Management

Power

Consumption

Integration


• Besides exploring emerging semiconductor

opportunities derived from DNNs especially in

edge computing, I would rather suggest

Foundry / OSAT, as a user, to consider in the

future to adopt deep learning technology to

maintain your leading edge position of

solutions, while dealing with thermal and

mechanical and electrical issues, with the

advisory support of smart machines, to help

your clients time-to-market and to increase

your competitive advantages and values with

higher margin and market capitalization.


http://ieknet.iek.org.tw/

Given the rapid pace of change in cutting-edge technology and industry development， the timeliness and comprehensiveness of the information included in this presentation cannot be guaranteed by ITRI. Users of this presentation shall bear full liability for any injury or loss that may be sustained as a result. The Copyright of this presentation belongs to ITRI and none of this presentation， either in part or in whole， in any form， may be reproduced， publicly transmitted， modified or distributed or used by other means without permission from ITRI.

Thank you

Ray, Jui-Lin Yang

Deputy Program Director

[email protected]

+886-3-5919207

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