the next digital disruptions
TRANSCRIPT
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The next digital disruptions
Lee RainiePew Research Center
Director Internet, Science and Technology Research
Presented to: Future of the NetMilan, Italy
October 5, 2015
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Networked IndividualismThe move to looser, far-flung networks
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Personal networks are:More important – trust
Differently composed – segmented, layeredMediators and feedback providers
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Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation
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1) In U.S. - 89% use the internet (46% in 2000) 70% - broadband @ home (3% in 2000) Italy – 7-in-10 use internet (38% in 2007)2) In U.S. - 92% use cell phone (53% in 2000) 68% -- smartphone (35% in 2011) Italy – More than 90% use cell phones 60% - smartphones3) In U.S. 65% use social networking sites (3% in
2005) Italy – more than 60% use social networking
A few basics on the Triple Revolution in U.S. and Italy - % of adults
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May 3, 2023 7www.pewresearch.org
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www.pewresearch.org
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www.pewresearch.org
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www.pewresearch.org
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Future disruptions
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Digital Life in 2025
The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives
for good and ill
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Upsides: enhanced health, education, convenience, productivity, safety, and vastly more useful
information and self-awareness. Downsides: privacy challenges, over-hyped
expectations, and tech complexity.
The Internet of Things Will Thrive by 2025
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Theme 1) There will be a global, immersive, invisible, ambient
networked computing environment built through growth of smart sensors,
cameras, software, databases, and artificial intelligence.
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Theme 2) There will be smart agent and augmented-reality enhancements
to the real-world input that people perceive through the use of portable / wearable / implantable technologies.
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Theme 3) Social and business encounters and personal and business enrichment will be
shaped by virtual reality and telepresence.
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Theme 4) There will tagging, databasing, and intelligent analytical mapping of the physical and social
realms.
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Darksides
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Theme 1) The nature of work will change in unprecedented ways as robots and artificial intelligence assume greater
roles in job functions
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Theme 2) Privacy will be more at risk and something perhaps only the
privileged will enjoy.
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Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves and have-nots may expand,
resulting in resentment and possible violence.
http://vis4.net/blog/posts/mapping-internet-and-population/
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Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing; there’s
laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity, pornography, dirty tricks, crime, and those who practice them have new capacity to make life
miserable for others.
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Theme 5) Humans and their organizations may not respond quickly
enough to challenges presented by complex networks.
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Grazie mille!