the next digital disruptions
TRANSCRIPT
The next digital disruptions
Lee RainiePew Research Center
Director Internet, Science and Technology Research
Presented to: Future of the NetMilan, Italy
October 5, 2015
Networked IndividualismThe move to looser, far-flung networks
Personal networks are:More important – trust
Differently composed – segmented, layeredMediators and feedback providers
Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation
1) In U.S. - 89% use the internet (46% in 2000) 70% - broadband @ home (3% in 2000) Italy – 7-in-10 use internet (38% in 2007)2) In U.S. - 92% use cell phone (53% in 2000) 68% -- smartphone (35% in 2011) Italy – More than 90% use cell phones 60% - smartphones3) In U.S. 65% use social networking sites (3% in
2005) Italy – more than 60% use social networking
A few basics on the Triple Revolution in U.S. and Italy - % of adults
May 2, 2023 7www.pewresearch.org
www.pewresearch.org
www.pewresearch.org
www.pewresearch.org
Future disruptions
Digital Life in 2025
The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives
for good and ill
Upsides: enhanced health, education, convenience, productivity, safety, and vastly more useful
information and self-awareness. Downsides: privacy challenges, over-hyped
expectations, and tech complexity.
The Internet of Things Will Thrive by 2025
Theme 1) There will be a global, immersive, invisible, ambient
networked computing environment built through growth of smart sensors,
cameras, software, databases, and artificial intelligence.
Theme 2) There will be smart agent and augmented-reality enhancements
to the real-world input that people perceive through the use of portable / wearable / implantable technologies.
Theme 3) Social and business encounters and personal and business enrichment will be
shaped by virtual reality and telepresence.
Theme 4) There will tagging, databasing, and intelligent analytical mapping of the physical and social
realms.
Darksides
Theme 1) The nature of work will change in unprecedented ways as robots and artificial intelligence assume greater
roles in job functions
Theme 2) Privacy will be more at risk and something perhaps only the
privileged will enjoy.
Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves and have-nots may expand,
resulting in resentment and possible violence.
http://vis4.net/blog/posts/mapping-internet-and-population/
Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing; there’s
laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity, pornography, dirty tricks, crime, and those who practice them have new capacity to make life
miserable for others.
Theme 5) Humans and their organizations may not respond quickly
enough to challenges presented by complex networks.
Grazie mille!