the mobility revolution - zero emissions, zero accidents, zero ownership
TRANSCRIPT
@LNeckermann 1
The Mobility Revolution: Zero Emissions, Zero Accidents, Zero Ownership
Liverpool, 16 June 2016
@LNeckermann 2
Our cities are growing by the hour
@LNeckermann 3
Number of cars per 1,000 people vs Percent of population living in megacities
With urbanisation comes decreased vehicle ownership
Source: Sivak and Schoettle 2011, from Shroders “The End of the Road”
@LNeckermann 4
We are losing our love for driving
Peak Car? Kilometers driven per capita
@LNeckermann 5
Our Reality : We would rather be working (or eating, or texting).
@LNeckermann 6
A Short History of The Mobility Revolution
Tomorrow: all mobility is electric, autonomous and on-demand. The Mobility Revolution is here.
@LNeckermann 7
Zero Emissions reality check for OEMs: Tesla outsells its competitors
@LNeckermann 8
Audi A3 eTron, Q7 Plug-in BMW i3, i8, 3 Series Plug-in, X5 eDrive, Cadillac ELR, Chevrolet Spark, Volt, Bolt Citroën C-Zero, Peugeot i-On Ford C-Max, Focus, Fusion Honda Accord Hyundai Sonata Kia Soul McLaren P1 Mercedes B-Class, C 350eS550e, GLE, E-Class Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Outlander Plug-In Nissan Leaf, eNV200 Porsche Cayenne, Panamera, 918 Renault Twizy, Kangoo, Zoe Smart Electric Drive Tesla Model S, Model X Toyota Prius (+20 other hybrid models) Volkswagen e-Up, GTE, Passat GTE Volvo S60, XC90 T8
Zero Emissions: Every other car company splurging to catch up
@LNeckermann 9
Zero Accidents: autonomous vehicle development accelerating, too
@LNeckermann 10
Driving IS the distraction… so why should we do it?
Fatal Accident Causes: • Alcohol 31% • Speeding 30% • Distracted Driver (incl. Texting) 21% • Drugs 7% • Fatigue 2.5% • Ice, Rain, Debris 3.5%
"People may outlaw driving cars because it's too dangerous. You can’t have a person driving a two-ton death machine” Elon Musk
@LNeckermann 11
Companies that have committed to fully-autonomous vehicle projects
Source: CB Insights image,2016; Vision Systems Intelligence, 2016
Excerpted list; does not include suppliers, universities, research institutes, governments
@LNeckermann 12
Corporate Travel: Uber has overtaken Taxis and Car Rental
Source: Certify, Bloomberg
@LNeckermann 13
Autonomous
Human Driven
Owned Shared
I own a car, but it drives me
I don’t own a car or drive a car, I rely on driverless mobility-on-demand
I own a car and drive it myself I don’t own a car but I use carsharing
I don’t own a car, I rely on Uber, Lyft
Plotting the path forward: “I don’t own a car… I don’t drive a car”
By 2025
2020
2016 2017
2017
Source: Neckermann Strategic Advisors
@LNeckermann 14
Virtually every carmaker has dubbed itself "mobility company"
"The role of a traditional automaker changes dramatically. We become a piece of the mobility ecosystem." Bill Ford, Chairman Ford
"We are driving to be both a product and mobility company and, ultimately, to help change the way the world moves." Mark Fields, CEO Ford "…An industry that, for 100 years, has relied on vehicles that are stand-alone, mechanically controlled and petroleum-fueled to ones that will soon be interconnected, electronically controlled and fueled by a range of energy sources." Mary Barra, CEO GM
@LNeckermann 15
NEXT Future Transportation for an urban world
@LNeckermann 16
The Mobility Revolution: Zero Emissions, Zero Accidents, Zero Ownership
Liverpool, 16 June 2016