the future of energy and energy for the future
TRANSCRIPT
Ashok KhoslaDevelopment Alternatives
and IUCN, Club of Rome, ZERI
The Future of Energyand
Energy for the Future
IAEA, Vienna15 September 2009
Development Alternatives
Living Together …
Energy Justice – Energy Security for All
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Energy Security
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Development Alternatives… Shelterless in the Village
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Development AlternativesEvery Drop
Counts !
Development Alternatives– No Clean Drinking Water
> 1,300 million people
Development AlternativesDevelopment Alternatives
ïIn a Permanent Trap
ïPoverty
ïResource Destruction
ïNo Income ïNo Markets
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1,500,000 !
Development AlternativesDevelopment Alternativesï(Source World Bank)
Each figure represents 10 million persons living on $1 a day or less at 1985 prices.
900 million people in Asia-Pacific are poor and it is 70% of the worlds poor people.
Poverty Poverty –– 3 Billion3 Billion
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Footprint
Bio-Capacity
The Ecological Footprint of an Industrialized
Country
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2010
World
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Living Together ?
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Energy for the Future
Energy is ONE Part of a VERY LARGE Global EcoSystem
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The Energy Problematique
Ø Energy for What ?Ø Energy for Whom ?Ø Energy from Where ?
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The Immediate Convergence
Water
Climate Change
Biodiversity How Sustainable Is Our Energy Economy?
Food
Financial System
Peak Oil
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National Development
. . . for whom?
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Energy SourcesØ ConventionalØ Fossil Fuels – Oil, Gas, Coal, etcØ NuclearØ Large Hydro
Ø FutureØ SolarØWindØ Geothermal, OceanØ Small Hydro
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Energy Efficiencies - Conservation
• Rated Efficiencies • First Law – Saving, HK
• Potential Efficiencies• Second Law – Appropriate Use
• Latent Efficiencies• Different technologies
• Systemic Efficiencies• Different Lifestyles
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Energy Applications
Ø Power GenerationØ TransportØ ConstructionØ Lighting, Cooking, Heating
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Energy and Other Resources
ØWaterØ EcosystemsØ Climate ChangeØ Pollution
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People, Economics,Resources
and the Environment
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Oil and gas peaksOil production peaks before 2020
Source: Defeyes, 2001: Hubbert’s Peak
Econ. growth (%) 0 2,8 5
Year of depletion 2260 2075 2055
Gas
Source: Meadows et al. 2004: Limits to Growth - The 30-Year Update
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Ecological Rucksacks
Raw Material
Rucksack
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Deserts Growing by50 Thousand Sq Km per
year
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Richest fifth
Poorest fifth
85%
8%
3.5%
2%
1.5%
Each horizontal band represents an equal fifthof the “World’s people
People Income
Our Income Distribution
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Causes
Ø Consumption PatternsØ Production SystemsØ Mindsets and TechnologiesØ Short Time Horizons ØExpectations of High Financial Returns
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Energy Costs of Food – von Weizsaecker
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Richest fifth
Poorest fifth
85%
8%
3.5%
2%
1.5%
Each horizontal band represents an equal fifthof the “World’s people
People Income
Our Income Distribution
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Population Growth – The Three Scenarios
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The First World
Some 2 Billion People Mining the Landscape of its
Treasures, Productive Capacity and Health
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The Fundamental Choices: North
BAU ?or
Fine-Tuning ?or
Systemic Change ?
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The Third World
Some 3 to 4 Billion People Surviving on a Landscape of
Poverty, Inequity, Vulnerability and Environmental Degradation
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The Fundamental Choices: South
to Copy-cat?or
to Piggy-back ?or
to Leap-frog?
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The Pursuit of Global Competitiveness
Automatically Promotes Copy-Cat
Strategies
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Development AlternativesEfficiency in Agriculture
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Big Engineering Works
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Mining the Earth
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High Pressure on the Environment
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Choice and Production of Food on Ecological Costs
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Richest fifth
Poorest fifth
90%
8%
3.5%
2%
0.5%
Each horizontal band represents an equal fifthof India’s people
People Income
Resulting Income Distribution
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The Copy-Cat Outcomes
Ø Increased Income DisparitiesØ Massive Degradation of EnvironmentØ Large Footprint, External
DependenceØ Loss of Cultural and Social CapitalØ More Exclusion, Alienation, ViolenceØ Overshoot and Collapse
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Footprint
Bio-Capacity
The Ecological Footprint of a
Highly Industrial Economy
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The Likely Results of a Copy-Cat Approach
Qua
lity
of L
ife
Years
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Population Growth – The Three Scenarios
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The Pursuit of Creating National Wealth
Largely NeedsPiggy-Back Strategies
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Factor 4
Potential Efficiency
ØTechnical HK or FTØMainly Energy SavingØFiscal IncentivesØBasic Caring
Development AlternativesFactor 4 –
von Weizsaecker
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Automobiles
Energy and Material Efficiency
Development AlternativesEnergy Efficiency
Light Bulbs
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Richest fifth
Poorest fifth
85%
8%
3.5%
2%
1.5%
Each horizontal band represents an equal fifthof the “World’s people
People Income
Resulting Income Distribution
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Footprint
Bio-Capacity
The Ecological Footprint of a Steady State Economy
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Likely Results of a Piggy-Back Approach
Qua
lity
of L
ife
Years
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Population Growth – The Three Scenarios
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The Pursuit of Gross National Happiness
Necessarily Depends On Leap-Frog
Strategies
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Latent Productivity
Clean TechnologiesMainly Material SavingInnovation Incentives
Wide AwarenessRegulation
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Designed for Carbon Neutrality
Ø Zero CFCs
Ø Low Carbon
Emissions
Ø No Pollution
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TARA
WOODSTOVES
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Development Alternatives Rs 250 per Sq Ft
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Vertical Shaft Brick Kiln:50% CO2 Reduction
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Development Alternatives DESI PowerDESI Power
Development AlternativesCheck DamsCheck Dams
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Richest fifth
Poorest fifth
Each horizontal band represents an equal fifth of the world’s people
People Income
Sustainable Distribution of Global Income
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Footprint
Bio-Capacity
The Ecological Footprint of a Sustainable Economy
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Expected Results of a Leap-Frog Approach
Qua
lity
of L
ife
Years
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Population of India – The Three Scenarios
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The Next Wave: Factor 50
Systemic Impact
Breakthrough TechnologiesZero Emission
Demand Side ManagementCatastrophe Driven
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After Factor 10:Horse Jump ?
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DISRUPTIVETECHNOLOGY
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Transport Systems
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Energy Use in Transportation(Operational)
Ener
gy p
er p
ax-k
m (n
ot to
sca
le)
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Energy Use in Transportation(Operational + Infrastructure)
Ener
gy p
er p
ax-k
m (n
ot to
sca
le)
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Energy Use in Transportation(Operational + Infrastructure
+ Rucksacks)En
ergy
per
pax
-km
(not
to s
cale
)
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The Five Kingdoms of Nature
*• Animals
• Plants
• Fungi
• Algae
• Bacteria*
ZERI
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Water Supplyfor New York City
circa 1997
Development AlternativesDevelopment AlternativesWater Treatment Plant
Development AlternativesDevelopment AlternativesWater Treatment Plant?
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6.5 Billion Dollars + 300 Million Every Year
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700 Million Dollars -One Time Investment
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New York City: Value of Waterworks
Catskills: US $ 0.7 BillionEngineered: US $ 6.5 Billlion
(Plus US$ 0.3 Billion/year)Saving: US $ 6 Billion
Date: 1997Estimated by: City of New York
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SavannahTropical
Forest
Biodiversity
SustainableCommunities
Drinking Water
Carbon Sink
Biodiesel
Development AlternativesInnovation Conference Boston 20 May 2008
Introduction
Innovation Today
Case StudiesFlame RetardantAnti-bactericidePacemakerPropeller DesignWater EfficiencyWhite color
Solutionsfrom Nature
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how can we have waterwithout any pumps?
Welwitschia mirabilis in the Namib Desert
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Anti-friction and Anti-abrasion without Ball Bearings or Lubricants(Outperforms Steel !)
Technical University of Berlin
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ENERGY EFFICIENT BUILDING
Warne, Nyquist, Pearce, Arup, etc.
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Cambridge Biostability
Vaccines without Refrigeration
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AUTOMOBILES
Daimler
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Ways Forward&Research Agenda
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NR resources: 6 tons(incl. rucksacks)
CO2 emission: 2 tons
Ecological footprint: 1.8 Ha
ENERGY USE 2 kW ?
By 2050: Limits per Capita per Year
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Human Fertility and Energy Use
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
P e r C a p i t a E n e r g y U s e ( K g O i l E q u i v p e r Y e a r )
Low Medium Good High
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HDI and Population Growth
02468
10121416
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Billi
on P
eopl
e in
3rd
Wor
ld
Current HDI Medium HDI Good HDI High HDI
2.0%1.5%
1.0%0.7%
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3rd World in the Year 2050
If Low HDI (br = 2.0%) Continues: 13.5 BillionWith rise to Medium HDI (br = 1.5%) 10.5 BillionWith rise to Good HDI (br = 1.0%) 8.2 BillionWith transition to High HDI (br = 0.7%) 7.0 Billion
Several Billion Extra People
BAU
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Otherwise, We Will Need 2 Additional Worlds by 2030