the future of electricity in the energy system of the future

Hans De Keulenaer, European Copper Institute

[email protected]

The future of electricity in the energy system of the future- A big picture view

Wind-to-Wheel SymposiumMay 26, 2011Barcelona

mailto:[email protected]

www.leonardo-energy.org

Content

About Leonardo ENERGY Energy sustainability – an elusive concept 4 integrated visions on energy

– What do they have in common? Implications for electricity


About Leonardo ENERGY

Global Community for Sustainable Energy Professionals

Advocacy for good practice in regulation & standards

Resources for continuous professional development of energy professionals– Application notes & white papers– Webinars– E-learning courses


http://www.leonardo-energy.org/


What is energy sustainability?

Sustainable energy is the provision of energy that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. (Wikipedia)

Mark Jaccard: 2 conditions

1. Good prospects for enduring indefinitely the type & level of energy services it provides

2. Extraction, transformation, transport & consumption must be benign to people and ecosystems


How much energy do we need?

2,400 kgoe/pp/year = 100 GJ/pp/year = 76 kWh/pp/day


Integrated vision on energy #1


The 70 kWh plan for the UK


How much EROEI is enough?


The Challenge of Finance

Technology GW B$/GW B$

3.8 M wind turbines of 5 MW 19,000 2.0 38,000

49,000 CSP plants of 300 MW 14,700 3.0 44,100

40,000 PV power stations of 300 MW 12,000 1.0 12,000

1.7 billion solar roofs of 3 kW 5,100 2.5 12,750

270 hydro power stations of 1.3 GW 351 3.0 1,051

5,350 geothermal plants of 100 MW 535 2.5 1,338

720,000 wave devices of 0.75 MW 540

490,000 tidal devices of 1 MW 490

Capacity numbers from the Jacobson reportCost figures from L D Harvey – Energy & the New Reality

Total investment needed more than 100,000 B$(world GDP ~ 60,000 B$)


How much do we spend on energy?

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Cost of delivered energyTaxes

EU-27 cost of energy ~ 1,250 Billion Euro(GDP 12,396 Billion Euro)

Spanish cost of energy ~ 100 Billion Euro(GDP 1,081 Billion Euro)


Energy taxes

% energy tax revenue

Electricity to industryElectricity to consumersGas to industryGas to consumersTransport fuelOther oil


How much energy do we really need?


The dream

1. Physical and technical availability, on a large scale

2. Cost-effective3. Low environmental impact4. Socially acceptable & safe


The Hydrogen Economy

Pros Flexible system

– Can be produced in many ways

– Versatile in use Storage

Cons Significant losses

through many conversions in production, storage & use


The Bio-Energy Economy

Pros 100% renewable

energy source & carrier in one

Easy storage Rural development

Cons Land use:

– Low EROEI– Competition with food

Water use Low value-added jobs


The problem with biomass

Mc Kay: complete agricultural surface in UK can yield a maximum of 36 kWh/person/day• 7 kWh/p/d (1/5th of agro-land) is the maximum

we can realistically hope for• But we need a total of at least 80 kWh/p/d• Biomass “does not add up”

Heinberg: bioenergy sources have EROEIs of around 5:1 too low to be of good use


The electrical society

Pros Many ways to produce

electricity Single infrastructure

to cover all needs (and already largely existing)

High efficiency in use

Cons Storage is difficult Impact of the

electricity system on landscape

Change in end-use systems:– Electric vehicles– Heat pumps for homes


On what can we (probably) agree?

Time is pressing Energy efficiency is vital A diversified, cost-effective solution Rapid growth for renewables Increased interconnection capacity New way to operate energy systems Need for flexibility Increasing role of electricity The promise of wind, PV and CSP


Wildcards – geothermal power

Geothermal energy can provide up to 10 times current global energy production.

World Energy Assessment:– 600,000 EJ ‘useful

accessible resource’– 5,000 EJ resource– 500 EJ reserve


Wildcards – ocean energy

If we could harness 0.1% of the power of the oceans, we could support the energy needs of 15 billion people.

Mackay: 45 kW/m power in wave-front

World Energy Assessment:– 7,400 EJ potential (7,200

from OTEC)


Wildcards - hydropower

Canada, home to about 475 hydroelectric plants with a

current capacity of 70,000 MW, producing about 355 TWh/yr

According to a study commissioned by the Canadian Hydropower Association, Canada has

163,000 MW of untapped hydropower potential

http://goo.gl/yzvhO

http://goo.gl/yzvhO


End-uses for energy

Electricity

HeatTransport


How much energy for 1 kWh of electricity?


How much energy will we need for a kWh?

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

France Germany Netherlands Poland Spain Sweden UnitedKingdom

bld performancecalc 2009 RE=1calc 2020 RE=1calc 2050 RE=1 REFcalc 2050 RE=1 [r]evolution


Environmental performance for heating solutions for the passive house

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Standard (1) LEH (1) PH (1) with heat pump

PH (1) with NSH today

PH (1) with NSH 2030

Em

issi

on

of

CO

2-eq

uiv

alen

ts

(to

n)

Carbon dioxide (ton) Global Warming Potential (CO2e) [ton CO2-Equiv.]


Heating homes tomorrow


Renewables-powered industrial processes


Electricity

Heating & CoolingTransport

Electricity & other energy uses

Reduction through low

energy & passive buildings

Heat pumps, reversible

airconditioning

EV, HEVPublic transport

Electric process heat

New services (teleworking, web conferencing, building automation, …)

Reduction through

increased fuel efficiency & fuel

switching

?

the future of electricity in the energy system of the future

Technology

energy systemsneed

energy taxes

eurospanish cost of

d harvey energy

bioenergy economypros100

low energy passive buildings

type level of energy

future of electricity