The Energy Transition in Emerging MarketsSelect insights

February 2019

Dario Traum

Head of Policy, EMEA

1 January 30, 2019

Investment

2 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF

OECD vs non-OECD clean energy new asset finance

51 6479 91 87

108

150123

152120

69

91

111 7973

93

102

98

92

102

120

155

190

169159

201

252

221

244

222

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ billion

OECD

Non-OECD

Non-OECD countries have recorded more investment every year since 2012

3 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes non-OECD nations, plus Chile, Mexico and Turkey.

Emerging market clean energy new asset finance

32 37 4155 59

81

116

91

118

84813

8

9

12

13

9

9

8

10

1017

11

52

6979

93 91

115

160

127

167

128

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ billion

Non-EU Europe

Middle East & North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Rest of the Americas

Brazil

Rest of Asia

India

China

China’s slowdown is compensated by more investment in other regions

4 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes 100 non-OECD nations, plus Chile, Mexico and Turkey.

26 27 30 31 31 3237

29 31 30

70

77 76 73 72 72 7166

74 72 73

33

103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008-2017

Number of countries

<$100m

>$100m

Number of countries recording more than $100 million in clean energy asset finance

Emerging market investment remains too low and too concentrated

5 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: utility scale projects are typically larger than 1.5MW. Includes 103 non-OECD nations, plus Chile, Mexico and Turkey.

9

1720

2730

3235

3840

44 4547

53 54

2 2 35

810

17

25

35

57

6365

76

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Number of emerging markets with at least one solar/wind asset finance

Wind

Solar

Number of developing nations with at least one utility-scale solar/wind clean energy financing, 2004-2017

The continuous decline in the cost of PV has opened many emerging markets to the technology

6 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: nominal yearly investment figures used against 2017 GDP.

Germany

JapanSpain

U.K.

U.S.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5-year renewables asset finance as a share of 2017 GDP

Five-year clean energy asset finance as a share of 2017 GDP in major OECD nations

7 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: nominal yearly investment figures used against 2017 GDP.

Brazil

Chile

China

India

Mexico

Turkey

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5-year renewables asset finance as a share of 2017 GDP

Five-year clean energy asset finance as a share of 2017 GDP in leading developing nations

Energy transition leaders amongst emerging markets have recorded higher investment levels

relative to the size of their economy than their OECD peers

8 January 30, 2019

Capacity and

generation

9 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF, Climatescope. Note: non-fossil fuel and non-wind/solar capacity additions were accounted for by nuclear, geothermal, biomass, and large hydro

projects.

Share of annual capacity additions by technology in emerging markets

Wind and solar

Fossil fuels

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2017 was the first time solar and wind installations toped fossil fuels across emerging markets

10 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF, Climatescope

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Uruguay

Honduras

Costa Rica

Morocco

Chile

Brazil

Germany

Japan

U.S.

Share of wind and solar generation in select markets

Emerging markets count amongst the world leaders in solar and wind penetration

11 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF, Climatescope

4.5 4.9 5.3 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4

2.22.2

2.22.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.61.7

1.81.9

2.0 2.1 2.1 2.22.3

0.50.5

0.50.5 0.5 0.6

0.60.7

1010

1112 12

1313

14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

'000 TWh

Geothermal

Fossil Fuels (Other)

Solar

Biomass & Waste

Small Hydro

Wind

Oil & Diesel

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Natural Gas

Coal

Annual generation by technology in emerging markets

12 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF, Climatescope

68% 13% 3% 3% 4%

China India Russia South Africa Indonesia Ukraine

Turkey Taiwan Vietnam Kazakhstan Other

Coal cumulative installed capacity in emerging markets by country

The coal challenge in emerging markets is highly concentrated

13 January 30, 2019

Foreign investment

14 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF

10-year foreign renewables asset finance by region, $ billion

Latin America and its renewables auctions programs have attracted the most foreign investor interest

15 January 30, 2019

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Includes 100 non-OECD nations, plus Chile, Mexico and Turkey.

Region of origin of emerging market foreign direct investment

Europe’s utilities and development banks are the most active foreign investors in emerging markets

16 January 30, 2019

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