euromonitor emerging markets

Download Euromonitor emerging markets

Post on 13-May-2015

2.833 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Euromonitor Emerging Markets 2010

TRANSCRIPT

  • 1.Emerging Market Consumers:A comparative study of LatinAmerica and Asia-Pacific Euromonitor International ESOMAR Latin America 2010

2. Table of Contents Emerging markets and the global recessionDemographic dynamicsIncome inequality and the rise of the middle classSpending prioritiesConsumers in 2010 and beyond 3. Emerging markets and the global recessionImage for 2010 4. 2010: Recovery is driven by emerging markets Real GDP growth: % growth over previous period, annualised 11Emerging economies % real GDP growth over previous 6 World2009: 89quarter, annualized2010: 17Advanced economies Number of countries 1 expected to see negative real GDP2007Q22008Q12006Q12006Q22006Q32006Q42007Q1 2007Q32007Q4 2008Q22008Q32008Q42009Q12009Q22009Q32009Q42010Q12010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q4 growth-4 -9 Source: IMF 5. Winners and losersAnnual % real GDP growth in G20: 2009-2010 China IndiaIndonesia Brazil Saudi Arabia Mexico TurkeyRussiaSouth KoreaUSACanada AustraliaSouth AfricaJapanArgentina Germany FranceUnited KingdomEU-27Italy -10.0 -5.0- 5.0 10.0 15.0 2009 2010Source: IMF 5 6. Latin AmericaRecovery in Latin America is not homogenous across countries. Commodity-exporting countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru) are expected to perform better in the region, while commodity importers face a slower recovery. Real GDP growth in selected markets: 2008-2009, Growth over previous period Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009Q4 2009Argentina 1.2 1.81.3 -0.50.1 0.10.1 na Brazil1.8 1.21.4 -3.4-1.01.41.7 2.0 Chile 1.8 1.9-1.3 -2 -0.7 -0.31.1naColombia -0.4 0.60.2 -1.30.1 0.80.2naMexico1.2 -0.4 -0.1-1.9-6.90.32.5 2.0Source: National statisticsNote: Data are seasonally adjusted 7. BrazilSelected macro-economic indicators: Brazils economy suffered a contraction2010-2011 in 2009, largely as a result of slowing global demand for Brazilian exports,2010 2011 particularly of raw commodities.12 Nonetheless, the economy has9.9 rebounded owing to the strong capital 10 inflows and good policy management8.6 by the government. 8 6 The unemployment rate in Brazil4.74.54.1 dropped to 6.8% in December 2009 43.7 returning to the same level recorded in December 2008. 2 Growth of private consumption fell0Real GDPInflationUnemployment during 2009, but is supported by lowGrowthRate borrowing costs, tax cuts and aggressive government spending. Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics 8. Mexico Selected macro-economic indicators: The recession in Mexico ended in Q3 2010-2011 2009. This was a reflection of the improvement in industry and services20102011 caused by the revival of external and 7 domestic demand. 6.3 65.7Swine flu alone cost the country more5 4.7 than US$2 billion. The recession in the 4.0 43.5 USA led to a sharp drop in exports and remittances and the recovery is3.0 3 dependent on the strength of the US manufacturing sector. 21 Consumer spending fell by 8.0% in 2009 owing to tighter credit, a drop in 0Real GDP InflationUnemployment wages and remittances. Spending Growth Rate should begin to rise again in 2010, increasing by 1.8%.Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics 9. Asia Pacific Asia recovered from the downturn faster than other regions owing to the highly effective policy responses taken by governments. While deflationary pressures and a strong yen could stifle Japan's recovery, China continues to display a strong recovery backed by robust growth in private demand. Real GDP growth in selected markets: 2008-2009, Growth over previous periodQ1 2008 Q2 2008Q3 2008 Q4 2008Q1 2009 Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2009 China 10.610.1 9.0 6.86.1 7.99.1 10.7India 2.0 0.82.2 -0.3 1.4 2.53.0naIndonesia 1.8 1.71.5 0.21.1 1.31.5 1.5SouthKorea 1.1 0.40.2 -5.1 0.1 2.63.2 0.2Vietnam 7.5 5.75.9 5.73.1 4.55.8 7.4 Source: National statistics Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. Data for China and Vietnam are year-on-year and are not seasonally adjusted 10. ChinaSelected macro-economic indicators: Chinas growth continues to remain 2010-2011 buoyant aided by a strong rebound of 20102011 exports, robust growth in private demand and continued increases in 12 foreign investments. 10.0 9.7 10Domestic spending is driven by the8 stimulus package and the relaxation of restrictions on bank lending.6 4.5 4.5 Concerns about asset price bubbles4 3.0 3.5 still persist. Timely monetary tightening will not only help sustain growth but2 also avoid overheating.0Real GDPInflation Unemployment Growth RateSource: IMF/ILO/National statistics 11. IndonesiaSelected macro-economic indicators: Indonesia's economy performed better 2010-2011 than that of many other large Asian2010 2011 countries in 2009 thanks to its large 109.4 domestic market and relatively modest 9.1 dependence on exports. The 9 government has been introducing a8 range of more liberal policies to boost76.2 economic activity, investment and6 5.4 employment. 4.8 5.054 Unemployment fell to 7.9% at the3 end of 2009 the lowest rate in nine years.21 Good harvests have boosted farm0Real GDPInflation Unemployment incomes and commodity exporters Growth Rate are benefiting from the surge in China's infrastructure investment.Source: IMF/ILO/National statistics 12. Demographic dynamicsDemographic dynamics 13. A tale of two regions Latin Asia- America Pacific 14. Stark differences in major marketsChina 2010Brazil1.3 billion Total population 195 million 38.8 years Median age 28.8 years 16.4% % aged 0-14 25.6% 9.7%% aged 65+6.8% 1.8 Fertility rate1.8 Shanghai - 12.0 million Largest citySao Paulo 11.4 millionSource: UN/National statistics 15. Income inequality and the rise of the middle class 16. Fundamental differences in income distribution between the two regions Households with an annual income overAverageUS$15,000:householdAsia-Pacific:income:7.3%Asia Pacific:Latin America: Gini Index US$11,15933.2% Asia Pacific:Latin America: 0.413US$16,254 Latin America: 0.500 Source: National statistics 17. Income inequality in Latin America impacts on the size of the middle classMiddle class households: 2009 40%% of households with an income between 34% 75% and 125% of the median income 35% 31% 30% 29% 28%27% 24% 24%23% 23% 25%22% 21% 20%19%15%10%5%0%Source: National statistics 18. It also means the Latin American rich are richer than the Asia-Pacific rich Average disposable income of decile 10 households: 2009VenezuelaBrazilTaiwanSouth KoreaMexicoMalaysiaChile Peru Colombia Argentina EcuadorAzerbaijanKazakhstan ChinaThailand Turkmenistan PhilippinesBoliviaPakistan IndonesiaIndia Vietnam- 25,00050,000 75,000 100,000 US$ per household Source: National statistics 19. With some startling extremesThe ratio of a decile 10 income to a decile 1 income: 2009Brazil Colombia Peru Ecuador ChinaMalaysia PhilippinesBoliviaThailand Argentina TurkmenistanMexicoVenezuela VietnamIndiaSouth Korea IndonesiaChileTaiwanAzerbaijanPakistanKazakhstan- 5.0 10.015.0 20.0 25.0 30.035.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Source: National statistics 20. Spending priorities 21. Income inequality has a huge impact on spending patterns Average spending of a decile 5 household: 2009NecessitiesDiscretionary spending12,000 A middle income household in LatinAmerica spends 44% more than10,000the equivalent household inUS$ per householdEmerging Asia 8,0006,000 Despite this, the proportion of 4,000 budget devoted to necessities is 49%2,000 52%similar: 49% in Latin Americaand 52% in Emerging Asia - Latin AmericaEmergingAsiaSource: National statistics 22. How does the spending of the rich compare? Average expenditure of a decile 10 household: 2009 100% Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 90% Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages% of total household expenditure 80% Miscellaneous Goods & Services 70% Hotels & Catering 60% Education 50% Leisure & Recreation 40% Communications 30% Transport20% Health Goods & Medical Services10% Household Goods & Services 0% HousingChinaBrazil Clothing & Footwear Source: National statistics 23. And the poor? Average expenditure of a decile 1 household: 2009 100%Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco 90%Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages% of total household expenditure 80%Miscellaneous Goods & ServicesHotels & Catering 70%EducationLeisure & Recreation 60%Communications 50%TransportHealth Goods & Medical Services 40%Household Goods & Services 30%HousingClothing & Footwear 20%10% 0% China BrazilSource: National statistics 24. Consumers in 2010 and beyond 25. Technology & Communications 26. Emerging markets increasingly plugged inInternet Users 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 Asia Pacific 800000 Latin America 600000400000200000 02010 2015 2020 27. Staying connected on the goMobile Phone Subscriptions 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000Asia Pacific2000000Latin America1500000 1000000500000 0201020152020 28. Health & Wellness 29. Better living through nutrition Health & Wellness China - RMB mn450000400000350000300000250000200000150000100000 50000 02009 2014 30. Better living through nutrition Health & Wellness Brazil - R$ mn75000500002500002009 2014 31. Focus on prevention and dietary gapsVitamins and Dietary SupplementsVitamins and Dietary Supplements RMB mn Rs mn800004000070000350006000030000500002500040000 2009 20000200930000 2014 150002014200001000010000 50000 0 ChinaIndia 32. Focus on prevention and dietary gapsVitamins and Dietary SupplementsVitamins and Dietary SupplementsR$ mnMx$ mn3000 9800 96002500 94002000 920015002009 9000 20092014 8800 20141000 8600 500 8400 0 8200 Brazil Mexico 33. Eco-Awareness 34. Translating awareness into sales Competitive pricing Packaging redesign Concentrated products Communicating benefits 35. Retail evolution 36. Expansion of chained retailing Asia Pacific Asia PacificOutlets 2009 Outlets 2014 Hypermarkets 4048 6786Supermarkets 124477 154445Discounters1043 1545Small Grocery Retailers 11349185 11608480 Food/Drink/TobaccoSpecialists 37472833803238 37. Expansion of chained retailing Latin AmericaLatin AmericaOutlets 20

Recommended

View more >