the energy challenge adopting clean tech - how quickly will (can) the world change? prof ray wills...
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The energy challenge adopting clean tech - how quickly will (can) the world change?
Prof Ray Wills
Director and PartnerDuda&Wills
Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia
Chief AdviserSustainable Energy Association of Australia
Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
Shaun A. Marcott,* Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Alan C. Mix 2013, Science 339, 1198
Adoption of technology
The natural turnover and retirement of appliances, buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years.
However, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’
The transition to sustainable energy, like many new technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes favoured by: policy measures and regulation; consumer sentiment; pricing advantage.
Roger’s diffusion curve
Technology adoption rates – US Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
Marked decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication
between consumers - blogspace Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs Regulation Energy security
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
Global renewables 2013?
Data UNEP
Electricity generation - Europe
Electricity generation - UK
Electricity generation - Australia
Australian electricity demand 2012…
Data AEMO
Electricity market projections – WA
Sustainable energy and energy efficiency
Energy efficiency in all forms Distributed, renewable energy Known costs, resource life 1000++ years Stored energy in commodities, desal Energy storage key to:
improved energy delivery increased reliability reduced emissions
Technology energy use
www.epri.com
Global electricity growth
Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010
How clean are Europe’s cars?
Global renewables
Rapid change - Personal mobility
Fuel efficiency, other energy sources Transport Energy storage key New technologies may be disruptive
Private transport
Electric mass transit
Siemens Bordeaux light rail
Bombardier wireless light rail
Slim Ride -15 passengers Series 700 Shinkansen
train – 285 km/h
Electric mass transit
Commercialvehicles
Smith Newton electric truck Mega electric diesel hybrids London Bus Haul Pak + Earthmover Honda prime mover BYD Electric forklift Oshkosh Military Vehicle
Flying and floating fuels
February 25, 2008 – Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight
October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New Synthetic Fuel on Plane
February 14, 2011 – Qantas follows US Military to algae biofuels
September 13, 2011 – US Navy announces by 2016 Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels, is able to operate independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption
Smart grids, smart houses (and farms) Integrated energy planning
Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators
Green cities
Global Tianjin Eco-City China Ulsan Ecocity Korea Masdar City UAE
Australia City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 City of Melbourne Stirling City Centre, Perth City of Fremantle Yanchep – 2 x 100 000
Local government critical
Solar on Australian homes
955,614 solar installs in Australia, total 2.31 GW of capacity; output estimated 2500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to November 2012.
WA - 127 000 rooftops with solar, a total of 275 MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 6300 homes, 11.7 MW of capacity Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode
6055) next two largest - similar numbers ~ 4000 homes and ~ 8 MW.
Solar on Australian homes
WA - 104 000 rooftops with solar, a total of 218 MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) - over 5200 homes and 9.4 MW of capacity Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode
6055) next two largest - similar numbers 3200 homes and 6.4 MW.
Solar on WA homes
City of Cockburn
Solar on your home
Solar in South Australia
When the winds of change blow,some people build walls
and others build windmills.
Chinese proverb