the emotional brain, joseph ledoux, simon&schuster, 1996

The Emotional Brain, Joseph LeDoux, Simon&Schuster, 1996

Bounded RationalityBounded Rationality

When we don’t have all the time, all the When we don’t have all the time, all the

information, or all the intellectual ability to information, or all the intellectual ability to

make a completely fact-based analytical make a completely fact-based analytical

decision.decision.

When we don’t have all the time, all the When we don’t have all the time, all the

information, or all the intellectual ability to information, or all the intellectual ability to

make a completely fact-based analytical make a completely fact-based analytical

decision.decision.

((Models of Bounded Rationality, Models of Bounded Rationality, Herbert Simon,Herbert Simon, MIT Press, 1982)MIT Press, 1982)

MENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKINGMENTAL SHORTCUTS IN DECISION MAKING

Optimism BiasOptimism Bias

It won’t happen to meIt won’t happen to me



Judgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and BiasesJudgment Under Uncertainty; Hueristics and Biases Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982 Kahneman, Tversky, Slovic. Cambridge U Press 1982

"How concerned are you about the possibility there will "How concerned are you about the possibility there will

be more major terrorist attacks in the U. S.? Does that be more major terrorist attacks in the U. S.? Does that

worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too much or not

at all?”at all?”

A Great DealA Great Deal SomewhatSomewhat Not Too MuchNot Too Much Not at AllNot at All 29% 45% 17% 8%29% 45% 17% 8%

"How concerned are you about the chance that "How concerned are you about the chance that you you

personallypersonally might be the victim of a terrorist attack? might be the victim of a terrorist attack?

Does that worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too Does that worry you a great deal, somewhat, not too

much or not at all?”much or not at all?”

A Great DealA Great Deal SomewhatSomewhat Not Too MuchNot Too Much Not at AllNot at All 10% 25% 35 % 29% 10% 25% 35 % 29%

ABC News 9/5-7/06ABC News 9/5-7/06




FramingFraming

How the issue is initially describedHow the issue is initially described



FramingFraming

How the issue is initially describedHow the issue is initially described



RepresentativenessRepresentativeness

Applying partial information by fitting Applying partial information by fitting it into existing patterns.it into existing patterns.

RepresentativenessRepresentativeness

Applying partial information by fitting Applying partial information by fitting it into existing patterns.it into existing patterns.



Anchoring and AdjustmentAnchoring and Adjustment. .

Our judgment depends on where an Our judgment depends on where an initial value is set.initial value is set.

Anchoring and AdjustmentAnchoring and Adjustment. .

Our judgment depends on where an Our judgment depends on where an initial value is set.initial value is set.



Anchoring and AdjustmentAnchoring and Adjustment

9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = ? 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = ?





Loss AversionLoss Aversion

Equivalent loss and gain don’t feel Equivalent loss and gain don’t feel the same.the same.

Loss AversionLoss Aversion

Equivalent loss and gain don’t feel Equivalent loss and gain don’t feel the same.the same.


TWO INTERVENTIONS FOR TREATING A TWO INTERVENTIONS FOR TREATING A POTENTIALLY LETHAL HEALTH CONDITION.POTENTIALLY LETHAL HEALTH CONDITION.

Program AProgram A

90% SHORT-TERM 90% SHORT-TERM SURVIVAL RATESURVIVAL RATE

Program AProgram A

90% SHORT-TERM 90% SHORT-TERM SURVIVAL RATESURVIVAL RATE

Program BProgram B

100,000 PEOPLE OUT OF 100,000 PEOPLE OUT OF A MILLION WILL DIE A MILLION WILL DIE

IMMEDIATELYIMMEDIATELY

Program BProgram B

100,000 PEOPLE OUT OF 100,000 PEOPLE OUT OF A MILLION WILL DIE A MILLION WILL DIE

IMMEDIATELYIMMEDIATELY


• The Fallacy of the Small SampleThe Fallacy of the Small Sample

• Problems with probabilityProblems with probability

• The Fallacy of the Small SampleThe Fallacy of the Small Sample

• Problems with probabilityProblems with probability



Which sequence of Which sequence of HHeads or eads or TTails is more ails is more likely?likely?

A. H T H T H T H T H T H T H TA. H T H T H T H T H T H T H T

B. H H T H T T H T T T H H H TB. H H T H T T H T T T H H H T

Which sequence of Which sequence of HHeads or eads or TTails is more ails is more likely?likely?

A. H T H T H T H T H T H T H TA. H T H T H T H T H T H T H T

B. H H T H T T H T T T H H H TB. H H T H T T H T T T H H H T



Awareness Awareness ((The Ready Recall EffectThe Ready Recall Effect))

The The more quickly more quickly you can call something to you can call something to consciousness the more influence it has on consciousness the more influence it has on

your judgments your judgments

Awareness Awareness ((The Ready Recall EffectThe Ready Recall Effect))

The The more quickly more quickly you can call something to you can call something to consciousness the more influence it has on consciousness the more influence it has on

your judgments your judgments


INNUMERACYINNUMERACY

Which risk is greater?Which risk is greater?1 in 100,1 in 100,

1 in 10,0001 in 10,0001 in 101 in 10

Which risk is greater?Which risk is greater?1 in 100,1 in 100,

1 in 10,0001 in 10,0001 in 101 in 10


IF THE ODDS OF WINNING A LOTTERY ARE 1 IF THE ODDS OF WINNING A LOTTERY ARE 1 IN 1,000, IN 1,000,

WHAT WHAT PERCENTAGEPERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO PLAY OF PEOPLE WHO PLAY THE LOTTERY WINTHE LOTTERY WIN

IF THE ODDS OF WINNING A LOTTERY ARE 1 IF THE ODDS OF WINNING A LOTTERY ARE 1 IN 1,000, IN 1,000,

WHAT WHAT PERCENTAGEPERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO PLAY OF PEOPLE WHO PLAY THE LOTTERY WINTHE LOTTERY WIN


IF ONE PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO PLAY IF ONE PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO PLAY A LOTTERY WIN, A LOTTERY WIN,

AND 1000 PEOPLE PLAY, AND 1000 PEOPLE PLAY, HOW MANY PEOPLE WIN?HOW MANY PEOPLE WIN?

IF ONE PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO PLAY IF ONE PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO PLAY A LOTTERY WIN, A LOTTERY WIN,

AND 1000 PEOPLE PLAY, AND 1000 PEOPLE PLAY, HOW MANY PEOPLE WIN?HOW MANY PEOPLE WIN?


1. 1. Which is the bigger risk? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10 Which is the bigger risk? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10

1 IN 101 IN 10 (1 IN 5 WERE WRONG) (1 IN 5 WERE WRONG) 2. 2. 1 in 1,000, = .001, expressed as a percentage = ….1 in 1,000, = .001, expressed as a percentage = ….

.1% .1% (8 IN 10 WERE WRONG)(8 IN 10 WERE WRONG)3. 3. 1% of 1,000 = ….1% of 1,000 = ….

10 (10 (4 IN 10 WERE WRONG)4 IN 10 WERE WRONG)(80 % OF TEST SUBJECTS HAD A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR ABOVE.(80 % OF TEST SUBJECTS HAD A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR ABOVE.

1. 1. Which is the bigger risk? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10 Which is the bigger risk? 1 in 100, 1 in 10,000, 1 in 10

1 IN 101 IN 10 (1 IN 5 WERE WRONG) (1 IN 5 WERE WRONG) 2. 2. 1 in 1,000, = .001, expressed as a percentage = ….1 in 1,000, = .001, expressed as a percentage = ….

.1% .1% (8 IN 10 WERE WRONG)(8 IN 10 WERE WRONG)3. 3. 1% of 1,000 = ….1% of 1,000 = ….

10 (10 (4 IN 10 WERE WRONG)4 IN 10 WERE WRONG)(80 % OF TEST SUBJECTS HAD A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR ABOVE.(80 % OF TEST SUBJECTS HAD A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA OR ABOVE.

Cultural CognitionCultural Cognition

Humans are Humans are social animalssocial animals

Tribe success = Tribe success = OUR successOUR success

BIRG/ CORFBIRG/ CORF


Four basic preferences forFour basic preferences for how society is supposed to operate.how society is supposed to operate.

Individualist Individualist CommunitarianCommunitarian

Hierarchist Hierarchist Egalitarian Egalitarian

Cultural CognitionCultural CognitionRank yourself from 1 – 10. 1 means you absolutely disagree. 10 means you absolutely agree. Write Rank yourself from 1 – 10. 1 means you absolutely disagree. 10 means you absolutely agree. Write

your answers down somewhere. You‘ll need to add themyour answers down somewhere. You‘ll need to add them

1. The government interferes too much in our everyday lives.1. The government interferes too much in our everyday lives.2. Government needs to make laws that keep people from hurting themselves. 2. Government needs to make laws that keep people from hurting themselves. 3. The government should stop telling people how to live their lives. 3. The government should stop telling people how to live their lives. 4. The government should do more to advance society's goals, even if that means limiting the 4. The government should do more to advance society's goals, even if that means limiting the

freedom and choices of individuals. freedom and choices of individuals. 5. Too many people today expect society to do things for them that they should have to do for 5. Too many people today expect society to do things for them that they should have to do for

themselves. themselves. 6. People should be able to rely on the government for help when they need it. 6. People should be able to rely on the government for help when they need it. 7. Society works best when it lets individuals take responsibility for their own lives7. Society works best when it lets individuals take responsibility for their own lives without telling them what to do. without telling them what to do. 8. It's society's responsibility to make sure everyone's basic needs are met.8. It's society's responsibility to make sure everyone's basic needs are met.9. People who are successful in business have a right to enjoy their wealth as they see fit.9. People who are successful in business have a right to enjoy their wealth as they see fit.10. Taxes should be higher on the wealthy as a fair way of getting them to share the benefits 10. Taxes should be higher on the wealthy as a fair way of getting them to share the benefits

society gives them. society gives them.

Cultural CognitionCultural CognitionRank yourself from 1 – 10. 1 means you absolutely disagree. 10 means you absolutely agree. Write Rank yourself from 1 – 10. 1 means you absolutely disagree. 10 means you absolutely agree. Write

your answers down somewhere. You‘ll need to add them up.your answers down somewhere. You‘ll need to add them up.

1. Our society would be better off if the distribution of wealth was more equal. 1. Our society would be better off if the distribution of wealth was more equal. 2. Nowadays there is as much discrimination against whites as against blacks. 2. Nowadays there is as much discrimination against whites as against blacks. 3. We need to dramatically reduce inequalities between the rich and the poor, whites and people 3. We need to dramatically reduce inequalities between the rich and the poor, whites and people

of color, and men and women. of color, and men and women. 4. It seems like blacks, women, homosexuals and other groups don't want equal rights, they want 4. It seems like blacks, women, homosexuals and other groups don't want equal rights, they want

special rights just for them. special rights just for them. 5. It's old-fashioned and wrong to think that one culture's set of values is better than any other 5. It's old-fashioned and wrong to think that one culture's set of values is better than any other

culture's way of seeing the world. culture's way of seeing the world. 6. The women's rights movement has gone too far. 6. The women's rights movement has gone too far. 7. We live in a sexist society fundamentally set up to discriminate against women. 7. We live in a sexist society fundamentally set up to discriminate against women. 8. A lot of problems in our society today come from the decline in the traditional family, where the 8. A lot of problems in our society today come from the decline in the traditional family, where the

man works and the woman stays home. man works and the woman stays home. 9. Parents should encourage young boys to be more sensitive and less rough and tough. 9. Parents should encourage young boys to be more sensitive and less rough and tough. 10. Society as a whole has become too soft. 10. Society as a whole has become too soft.


More accurately predicted positions than More accurately predicted positions than liberal/conservative political self-identification liberal/conservative political self-identification on issues such as; on issues such as;

Climate change, raising the minimum wage,Climate change, raising the minimum wage, mandatory cervical cancer vaccine, mad cowmandatory cervical cancer vaccine, mad cow disease, gun control, abortion, estate tax, capitaldisease, gun control, abortion, estate tax, capital punishment, universal health care, warrantlesspunishment, universal health care, warrantless wiretapping, nuclear power, nanotechnologywiretapping, nuclear power, nanotechnology

http://www.culturalcognition.net/projects/second-national-risk-culture-study.htmlhttp://www.culturalcognition.net/projects/second-national-risk-culture-study.html

Cultural Cognition andCultural Cognition andperception of risks and benefits from perception of risks and benefits from

nanotechnologynanotechnology

For more information on For more information on Cultural Cognition…Cultural Cognition…

http://www.culturalcognition.net/

the emotional brain, joseph ledoux, simon&schuster, 1996

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