the economic outlook€¦ · silicon valley,” joel kotkin, professor of urban studies at chapman...

Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics | beaconecon.com

Christopher Thornberg, PhDFounding Partner, Beacon EconomicsDirector, UCR SoBA Center for Economic Forecasting and Development

The Economic OutlookFocus on the NationNovember 2019

Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics

Macro-Economic Growth

Trends

Bendsand


State Rankings

14-19 18-19 Current1Utah 3.5% 3.6% 1558.12Nevada 3.4% 3.3% 1426.43Idaho 3.1% 3.0% 769.14Florida 2.9% 2.9% 8892.75Washington 2.8% 3.1% 3528.16Arizona 2.8% 2.8% 2861.57Colorado 2.6% 2.1% 2802.78Oregon 2.5% 2.3% 1942.89California 2.4% 1.9% 17378.9

10South Carolina 2.3% 1.6% 2181.7

Employment Growth

9095

100105110115120125130

2005

:Q1

2006

:Q1

2007

:Q1

2008

:Q1

2009

:Q1

2010

:Q1

2011

:Q1

2012

:Q1

2013

:Q1

2014

:Q1

2015

:Q1

2016

:Q1

2017

:Q1

2018

:Q1

2019

:Q1

Index of Real GSP

United States California


State Rankings

14-19 18-19 Current1Delaware 4.7% 1.8% 890.72Nevada 4.0% 5.4% 845.93Washington 4.0% 1.3% 1167.14Oregon 3.8% 1.3% 923.45Nebraska 3.6% 2.6% 871.96California 3.3% 2.0% 1107.77Minnesota 3.2% 2.8% 1025.78South Carolina 3.2% 1.0% 836.29Arizona 3.1% 0.3% 911.5

10Oklahoma 3.1% 2.1% 870.7

Earnings Growth

10.0%10.5%11.0%11.5%12.0%12.5%13.0%13.5%14.0%14.5%

1961

:Q1

1964

:Q4

1968

:Q3

1972

:Q2

1976

:Q1

1979

:Q4

1983

:Q3

1987

:Q2

1991

:Q1

1994

:Q4

1998

:Q3

2002

:Q2

2006

:Q1

2009

:Q4

2013

:Q3

2017

:Q2

California Share National Personal Income


State Incomes

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

Inco

me

(Tho

usan

ds, $

)

CA Median Household Income 2018 Gr (3 Yr)

Total HH’s 12.90 Mil. 1.4%

Less than $25K 16.5% -2.9

$25K to $49.9K 17.6% -2.6

$50K to $99.9K 27.9% -0.8

$100K or More 37.9% 6.3


A (Temporary) Revenue Glut

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1994

-95

1996

-97

1998

-99

2000

-01

2002

-03

2004

-05

2006

-07

2008

-09

2010

-11

2012

-13

2014

-15

2016

-17

Billio

ns

State Revenues from Taxes

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

1994

-95

1996

-97

1998

-99

2000

-01

2002

-03

2004

-05

2006

-07

2008

-09

2010

-11

2012

-13

2014

-15

2016

-17

Share by Source

PIT Sales Corp


§Hyper-Cyclical§Progressive / Regressive§ Tax on Effort vs Tax on

Wealth§ Inflation for Goods

relative to Inflation for Services

§Evolutionary vs revolutionary reform

A (Temporary) Revenue Glut

1 Mississippi 24.8% 14 Alabama 18.7%

2 West Virginia 23.1% 15 Rhode Island 18.6%3 New Mexico 22.8% 16 Montana 18.5%

4 Vermont 22.5% 17 North Dakota 17.7%5 Wyoming 22.3% 18 Iowa 17.5%6 Alaska 21.9% 19 Michigan 17.5%7 Arkansas 20.6% 20 Louisiana 17.2%8 Maine 20.1% 21 Minnesota 17.2%9 Hawaii 19.2% 22 Idaho 16.8%10 New York 19.1% 23 California 16.7%11 Oregon 19.0% 24 Ohio 16.7%12 Kentucky 18.9% 25 New Jersey 16.6%13 South Carolina 18.8% 26 Oklahoma 16.5%

Tax Revenues as % GSP


California Employment

Source: California EDD 8

13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

18000

Jul-9

9Ju

l-01

Jul-0

3Ju

l-05

Jul-0

7Ju

l-09

Jul-1

1Ju

l-13

Jul-1

5Ju

l-17

Jul-1

9

(Tho

usan

ds)

Nonfarm EmploymentAug-19 18-19 17-18

Total Nonfarm 17519.7 1.8% 1.9%NR/Construction 923.4 3.8% 5.7%Prof Sci Tech 1330.1 3.6% 2.8%Education 386.5 3.1% 2.5%Health Care 2434.3 2.8% 3.2%Admin Support 1164.4 2.6% 3.2%Information 558.4 2.6% 2.8%Hospitality 2032.9 2.5% 1.4%Logistics 680.7 1.9% 5.2%Government 2624.6 1.6% 0.5%Management 257.2 1.2% 2.9%Manufacturing 1336.8 1.0% 0.9%Financial Activities 840.8 0.6% 0.6%Other Services 575.5 0.3% 1.4%Wholesale Trade 697.7 -0.2% 0.5%Retail Trade 1676.5 -0.7% 0.0%


Local Employment Base

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Ja

n-0

9

Sep-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Ja

n-1

1

Sep-1

1

Ma

y-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Sep-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Sep-1

5

Ma

y-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Sep-1

7

Ma

y-1

8

Indexed Payroll Job Growth 09-19

California Los Angeles (MD) Inland Empire

Orange County (MD) San Diego Oakland (MD)

San Jose Sacramento San Francisco (MD)

19-Sep 5 Yr 1 Yr

Inland Empire 1,551,000 3.5% 2.3%

San Francisco 1,191,200 3.5% 3.4%

Fresno 366,900 3.1% 3.4%

San Jose 1,164,000 2.7% 3.1%

Sacramento 1,022,600 2.7% 1.8%

East Bay 1,204,600 2.5% 1.9%

San Diego 1,518,600 2.3% 1.8%

Orange County 1,673,700 2.2% 1.1%

Modesto 180,100 2.1% 0.6%

Santa Rosa 212,100 1.9% 1.1%

Los Angeles 4,569,800 1.6% 1.1%

Ventura 310,400 1.1% 0.4%


Myth Busting

10

California's economy recently grew to become the world's fifth-largest economy if it were its own country.

Sounds like great news, but that wealth mostly benefits the very rich in the tech sector.

"Almost all the income growth and high-end job growth took place in Silicon Valley,”

Joel Kotkin, professor of Urban Studies at Chapman UniversityMay 18, 2018

Share New FT Employees 2014-2017

2017 Tot Ch < 50k Ch 50-100k Ch 100k+County Total 12,831.3 8.8% 69.0 417.4 548.1Coast SC 5,748.9 6.9% 18.6 161.4 193.3Bay 2,503.5 10.1% -35.4 53.7 212.0Balance 4,578.9 9.4% 85.8 202.4 142.8

Inland SC 1,608.6 9.4% 33.1 62.5 42.0North Inland 1,137.0 12.5% 33.6 55.8 37.4North Coast 575.2 11.9% 10.7 27.6 22.8Central Coast 721.7 8.9% 0.6 29.7 28.4Central Valley 536.5 9.6% 7.8 26.9 12.2


Economic Activity

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

$8.0

$9.0Q

1-95

Q4-

96Q

3-98

Q2-

00Q

1-02

Q4-

03Q

3-05

Q2-

07Q

1-09

Q4-

10Q

3-12

Q2-

14Q

1-16

Q4-

17Q

3-19

Bill

ions

Non-Residential Permits

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan-

07

Dec

-07

Nov

-08

Oct

-09

Sep

-10

Aug

-11

Jul-1

2

Jun-

13

May

-14

Apr

-15

Mar

-16

Feb

-17

Jan-

18

Dec

-18

Mill

ions

Total Passenger Traffic


Trade

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

$20,000Ja

n-08

Nov

-08

Sep

-09

Jul-1

0M

ay-1

1M

ar-1

2Ja

n-13

Nov

-13

Sep

-14

Jul-1

5M

ay-1

6M

ar-1

7Ja

n-18

Nov

-18

California Port Activity2018 YTD

2019 YTD

TOTAL ALL COMMODITIES 107,705 105,019 -2.5%

Electric Machinery Etc 15,339 15,476 0.9%

Industrial Inc Computers 17,188 14,890 -13.4%

Optic Photo Etc Med 8,753 9,081 3.8%

Vehicles 6,084 7,263 19.4%

Aircraft Spacecraft 4,059 5,307 30.8%

Nat Etc Pearls Prec 6,255 4,456 -28.8%

Edible Fruit & Nuts 4,298 4,445 3.4%

Plastics And Articles Thereof 4,444 4,016 -9.6%

Meat And Edible Meat Offal 3,864 3,803 -1.6%


Slowing Labor Markets

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-

11Se

p-11

May

-12

Jan-

13Se

p-13

May

-14

Jan-

15Se

p-15

May

-16

Jan-

17Se

p-17

May

-18

Jan-

19

Payroll Job Growth

US CA

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Jan-

93Fe

b-95

Mar

-97

Apr-9

9M

ay-0

1Ju

n-03

Jul-0

5Au

g-07

Sep-

09O

ct-1

1N

ov-1

3D

ec-1

5Ja

n-18

CA Labor Force Growth


Local Labor Markets

14

CurrLow

90-15 CurrLow

90-15Modesto 6.2 7.4Hanford 7.8 8Yuba 6.9 8.1Sacramento 3.6 3.8Redding 4.6 5.7San Francisco 2.1 2.3Chico 4.9 5.7Fresno 7.3 7.4Inland Empire 4.0 4.8Oakland 2.9 3.0Stockton 6.0 6.7San Jose 2.5 2.6Ventura 3.5 4.2Napa 2.7 2.7California 4.1 4.7SLO 2.8 2.8Merced 8.2 8.7Santa Barbara 3.5 3.5Salinas 5.9 6.4Santa Cruz 4.6 4.6Los Angeles 4.4 4.7Orange Cnty 2.7 2.6Vallejo 3.8 4.1Santa Rosa 2.6 2.5

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.0

1976

-01-

0119

79-0

9-01

1983

-05-

0119

87-0

1-01

1990

-09-

0119

94-0

5-01

1998

-01-

0120

01-0

9-01

2005

-05-

0120

09-0

1-01

2012

-09-

0120

16-0

5-01

California Unemployment Rate


Population Trends

-300,000-250,000-200,000-150,000-100,000

-50,0000

50,000100,000150,000200,000

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Net Migration

Net Domestic Migration Net Migration

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

State Population Growth Rate


Housing Costs

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000Q

1-88

Q4-

89Q

3-91

Q2-

93Q

1-95

Q4-

96Q

3-98

Q2-

00Q

1-02

Q4-

03Q

3-05

Q2-

07Q

1-09

Q4-

10Q

3-12

Q2-

14Q

1-16

Q4-

17

Median Home Prices

CA US

Apartment Asking Rent (Avg)

Rent 5 Yr GrSan Francisco (MD) $ 3,194 27.6%San Jose $ 2,736 29.0%Oakland (MD) $ 2,295 32.2%Santa Cruz $ 2,121 27.5%California $ 2,087 29.4%Los Angeles (MD) $ 2,043 32.4%Orange County (MD) $ 1,968 19.1%Seattle $ 1,873 50.2%San Diego $ 1,850 25.9%Ventura $ 1,824 20.8%Santa Rosa $ 1,717 24.7%Honolulu $ 1,649 18.5%Santa Barbara $ 1,642 24.2%Carmel/Monterey $ 1,583 31.6%United States $ 1,471 25.9%Denver $ 1,461 38.9%Inland Empire $ 1,393 25.4%


0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

Maine…

Vermont…

North D

akota…

West Virginia…

Montana…

New

Jersey…

Texas…

Haw

aii…

California…

Utah…

Housing Units per Capita (2017) -Top 5 and Bottom 5 States)

housing units/pop (2017) US Average

California = 2nd Lowest Housing Unit to Population Ratio

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Percent of Adults by Age Group Living With Parents -

California

25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years

51 California 8.3%50 Washington 8.5%49 Oregon 9.3%48 Maryland 9.9%47 Nebraska 9.9%46 Mass 10.0%45 Utah 10.1%44 Ohio 10.3%43 Colorado 10.3%42 Connecticut 10.6%41 DC 10.6%40 New Jersey 11.0%

2017 Housing Vacancy


New Housing Supply

Source: CIRB 18

05000

1000015000200002500030000350004000045000

Q1-

95Q

3-96

Q1-

98Q

3-99

Q1-

01Q

3-02

Q1-

04Q

3-05

Q1-

07Q

3-08

Q1-

10Q

3-11

Q1-

13Q

3-14

Q1-

16Q

3-17

New Home Permits

Single-family Multi-family

Method 1Total 722,022 Per Year 206,674 Current 111,185 Shortfall 100,489

Method 2Total 911,001 Per Year 263,667 Current 111,185 Shortfall 157,482

How Much Housing Needed?

Housing Needed to maintain 2% State Job Growth

BacklogAvg Growth 291Avg Vacancy 676Total 967

High Growth 1,408Avg Vacancy 676Total 2,084

Texas Growth 1,849Avg Vacancy 676Total 2,525


Why the problem? Incentives

19

Hypothetical City Full Service - with 6% UUTSingle-family

ResidentialMulti-familyResidential Industrial Retail

Property Value2 8,000,000 17,100,000 3,000,000 9,000,000 Residential Cost per DU 400,000 180,000 Property Size (acres) 5 5 5 5Retail Square footage per acre - - - 10,000 Residential Units 20 95 n/a n/aProperty Tax AB8 share of 1%3 16.3% 16.3% 16.3% 16.3%Utility User Tax Rate5 6% 6% 6% 6%Transient Occupancy Tax Rate n/a n/a n/a n/a

CITY TAX REVENUEProperty Tax Revenue 13,040 27,873 4,890 14,670 Property Tax Rev (InLieu of VLF) 3,600 7,695 1,350 4,050 Sales Tax Revenue4 7,560 7,560 - 82,500 Business License Tax6 - 5,500 5,500 5,500 Franchise Fees7 340 1,615 1,275 1,063 State Subventions & other revs8 2,380 9,247 296 887 TOTAL REVENUES 35,200$ 75,222$ 24,903$ 116,121$

CITY EXPENDITURESPolice Department 9,000 42,750 4,950 14,063 Fire Department 6,040 28,690 3,322 9,438 Public Works 1,200 5,700 1,320 3,750 Planning & Community Devlpmt 800 3,800 880 2,500 Parks & Community Services 2,600 12,350 429 1,219 Library 1,500 7,125 n/a n/aGeneral Government 2,540 12,065 1,298 3,688 TOTAL EXPENDITURES 23,680$ 112,480$ 12,199$ 34,656$

NET 11,520$ (37,258)$ 12,704$ 81,465$ per unit 576$ (392)$

NOTES

10. Enterprise services such as water, sewer, and garbage are not included. These services are funded by user fees, such that costs equate to revenues.

11. Expenditure estimates are based on current statewide median values for full service urban cities corellated with a consensus of recent project fiscal impact analyses.

Theoretical Comparison of Annual Costs and Revenues from Different Development Proposals

1. All revenue and expenditure estimates are based on a consensus of recent fiscal impact analyses, city budgets and reports to the state Controller.

2. Property values assume $400,000 per single family home, $180,000 per multi-family unit, $180/sf for retail, $600,000 per acre for industrial.

3. City property tax share is the average share of 1% property tax revenues paid in non-redevelopment areas. This rate differs from city to city depending on (among other things) the service responsibility of the city and the pre-Prop13 property tax rate.

6. Business License Tax estimated at $0.10 per sf for commercial uses. Multifamily residential is assumed to be rental property. Assumes comparable rates similar to statewide average among these cities. (Actual rates were not determined)

7. Franchise tax revenue at $17 per dwelling unit equivalent (DUE) and 1DUE/800sf commercial.

5. Some cities do not impose Utility User Taxes. Rates and applicability (e.g. electricity, gas, water and telephone,etc.) vary.

8. State subventions include per-capita based allocations such as MVLF and gas tax (residential only) and HOPTR (residential). These are assumed at $27 per residential DUE. Fines&forfeitures at $1.20/DUE, PropTransferTax at $0.55/$1000AV with 15yr turnover,Prop172 at 33% of PropTax(ERAF) times 11.5% (ratio of Prop172 to ERAF).

9. City is a "full service city" including police, fire and library services.

4. Sales and use tax: retail project assumes 10,000 square feet of retail per acre with taxable sales of $220 per square foot, 75% of which is "new sales" (not moved intra-city). Tax rate to city is 1% of taxable sales. Residential project assumes $126per capita retail sales captured in city.

Rev 11/2005 MJGC CaliforniaCityFinance.com FiscalComparison050518 11/29/2007 1:36 PM

Hypothetical City Full Service - with 6% UUTSingle-family

ResidentialMulti-familyResidential Industrial Retail

Property Value2 8,000,000 17,100,000 3,000,000 9,000,000 Residential Cost per DU 400,000 180,000 Property Size (acres) 5 5 5 5Retail Square footage per acre - - - 10,000 Residential Units 20 95 n/a n/aProperty Tax AB8 share of 1%3 16.3% 16.3% 16.3% 16.3%Utility User Tax Rate5 6% 6% 6% 6%Transient Occupancy Tax Rate n/a n/a n/a n/a

CITY TAX REVENUEProperty Tax Revenue 13,040 27,873 4,890 14,670 Property Tax Rev (InLieu of VLF) 3,600 7,695 1,350 4,050 Sales Tax Revenue4 7,560 7,560 - 82,500 Business License Tax6 - 5,500 5,500 5,500 Franchise Fees7 340 1,615 1,275 1,063 State Subventions & other revs8 2,380 9,247 296 887 TOTAL REVENUES 35,200$ 75,222$ 24,903$ 116,121$

CITY EXPENDITURESPolice Department 9,000 42,750 4,950 14,063 Fire Department 6,040 28,690 3,322 9,438 Public Works 1,200 5,700 1,320 3,750 Planning & Community Devlpmt 800 3,800 880 2,500 Parks & Community Services 2,600 12,350 429 1,219 Library 1,500 7,125 n/a n/aGeneral Government 2,540 12,065 1,298 3,688 TOTAL EXPENDITURES 23,680$ 112,480$ 12,199$ 34,656$

NET 11,520$ (37,258)$ 12,704$ 81,465$ per unit 576$ (392)$

NOTES

10. Enterprise services such as water, sewer, and garbage are not included. These services are funded by user fees, such that costs equate to revenues.

11. Expenditure estimates are based on current statewide median values for full service urban cities corellated with a consensus of recent project fiscal impact analyses.

Theoretical Comparison of Annual Costs and Revenues from Different Development Proposals

1. All revenue and expenditure estimates are based on a consensus of recent fiscal impact analyses, city budgets and reports to the state Controller.

2. Property values assume $400,000 per single family home, $180,000 per multi-family unit, $180/sf for retail, $600,000 per acre for industrial.

3. City property tax share is the average share of 1% property tax revenues paid in non-redevelopment areas. This rate differs from city to city depending on (among other things) the service responsibility of the city and the pre-Prop13 property tax rate.

6. Business License Tax estimated at $0.10 per sf for commercial uses. Multifamily residential is assumed to be rental property. Assumes comparable rates similar to statewide average among these cities. (Actual rates were not determined)

7. Franchise tax revenue at $17 per dwelling unit equivalent (DUE) and 1DUE/800sf commercial.

5. Some cities do not impose Utility User Taxes. Rates and applicability (e.g. electricity, gas, water and telephone,etc.) vary.

8. State subventions include per-capita based allocations such as MVLF and gas tax (residential only) and HOPTR (residential). These are assumed at $27 per residential DUE. Fines&forfeitures at $1.20/DUE, PropTransferTax at $0.55/$1000AV with 15yr turnover,Prop172 at 33% of PropTax(ERAF) times 11.5% (ratio of Prop172 to ERAF).

9. City is a "full service city" including police, fire and library services.

4. Sales and use tax: retail project assumes 10,000 square feet of retail per acre with taxable sales of $220 per square foot, 75% of which is "new sales" (not moved intra-city). Tax rate to city is 1% of taxable sales. Residential project assumes $126per capita retail sales captured in city.

Rev 11/2005 MJGC CaliforniaCityFinance.com FiscalComparison050518 11/29/2007 1:36 PM


Local Employment Base

Match the payroll employment growth rate (letters) (1994-

2019) to the California region (numbers)

A) Coastal SC

B) Central Coast

C) Bay Area

D) Inland NC

E) Inland SC

1) 31.8%

2) 34.2%

3) 40.4%

4) 52.6%

5) 81.0%

Pop 2019 Sh St GrGrowth

94-19

Inland So-Cal 6,371 26.8% 55.6%

Inland No-Cal 5,826 19.9% 40.9%

Greater Bay 7,845 17.7% 23.8%

Central Coast 1,455 2.9% 20.2%

So-Cal Coast 17,684 32.0% 18.2%

Regional Population Growth 1994-2019


Regional Residential Permits

Source: CIRB 21

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Perm

its Is

sued

NorCal Residential PermitsYTD as of Q2

Multifamily Single-family

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

Perm

its Is

sued

SoCal Residential PermitsYTD as of Q2



The Local Picture


Employment

Source: EDD

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Sep

-04

Sep

-05

Sep

-06

Sep

-07

Sep

-08

Sep

-09

Sep

-10

Sep

-11

Sep

-12

Sep

-13

Sep

-14

Sep

-15

Sep

-16

Sep

-17

Sep

-18

Sep

-19

Em

plo

ym

ent (T

housands)

Total Nonfarm EmploymentIndustry

SLO Sep. 2019 Emp

Year over Year % Growth

2018/19 2017/18

Total Nonfarm 119.7 1.6 0.4Manufacturing 8.3 5.1 6.7Hospitality 19.9 4.3 0.1

Prof./Business 11.3 3.7 1.8

Government 24.9 3.2 -0.2

Edu/Health 18.1 1.3 -2.2

Logistics 4.0 0.4 3.2

Finance 3.9 0.2 0.2

Wholesale Trade 2.6 0.2 -3.5

Information 1.3 -0.1 -7.5

Retail Trade 13.9 -3.4 0.1

Construction 7.5 -5.0 3.8


IndustryQ2-2019

Emp. SLO


SLO SB Monterey

Total Private 96,770 1.8 1.2 0.5Hospitality 18,890 3.0 1.2 3.1Education/Health 17,340 3.4 2.9 2.9Retail Trade 14,100 0.2 -1.2 0.3Manufacturing 7,700 3.1 3.2 1.9Construction 7,690 4.4 6.0 -0.4Professional/Business 6,470 -1.0 4.8 -1.4Agriculture 4,890 -1.1 -5.9 -4.7Admin Support 4,150 3.7 4.0 12.2Other Services 3,790 2.6 3.8 4.4Finance 3,760 -1.2 1.0 -0.8Wholesale Trade 2,670 1.8 -2.5 -0.8Information 1,310 0.6 -2.6 1.5

How Does SLO Compare?

Source: QCEW


Household Income

Source: ACS

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

$, T

hous

ands

Median Household Income

California Santa Barbara San Luis Obispo

Income

Share of Population(2018) 3-Year Change

SLO CA SLO CA

Total Households (000s) 106.2 13,072 1.4% 1.4%

Less than $25,000 16.2% 16.5% -3.3 -2.9

$25,000 to $49,999 17.6% 17.6% -1.7 -2.6

$50,000 to $74,999 18.3% 15.6% 0.0 -0.8

$75,000 to $99,999 12.0% 12.3% -1.6 0.0

More than $100,000 36.0% 37.9% 6.5 6.3


Education and Earnings

Source: ACS

EducationMedian Earnings (2018, $) 3-Year Change

SB SLO MON SB SLO MON

< HS 23,572 24,482 23,045 11.1 1.6 12.3

HS Grad 31,019 31,357 31,302 14.3 12.4 8.5

Some College 36,468 42,031 37,013 0.2 20.1 2.7

Bachelor’s 58,147 55,339 58,492 10.9 9.8 13.3

Graduate 82,153 72,716 83,676 17.5 11.8 20.7


Spotlight: Health Care

Source: QCEW, sanluisobispo.com

38000

40000

42000

44000

46000

48000

50000

80009000

10000110001200013000140001500016000

Q1-09Q1-1

0Q1-1

1Q1-1

2Q1-1

3Q1-1

4Q1-1

5Q1-1

6Q1-1

7Q1-1

8Q1-1

9

Healthcare Employment and WagesSan Luis Obispo

Employment Wage

The French Hospital Medical Center multi-million dollar expansion

- 17 Additional physicians- 297 staff members including nurses,

pharmacists, technicians and much more

- Add an additional $35.2 million in pay and benefits for the non-physician staff

- Add roughly 85,000 in square feet - 56 new private patient rooms - 10 more intensive care unit beds

- Double the hospital’s capacity for patients

Further Healthcare Developments:


Spotlight: Higher Education

EnrollmentSan Luis Obispo (2018)

3-Year % Growth

SLOSanta

BarbaraCalifornia

College 37,839 17.8% 3.6% -1.6%

Grad. School

1,978 -36.1% -4.7% 6.6%

Community Colleges play an important role in San Luis Obispo.

- 35% of California’s high school graduates enrolled in a community college after graduation.

- Cuesta College has increased the Promise Scholarship enrollment by 36% in Fall 2019, San Luis Obispo high school graduates two years of fee-free education at Cuesta.

- Cuesta has seen major renovations and construction in it’s SLO and North County campuses.


Business Activity

Source: HdL

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Q2-09

Q2-10

Q2-11

Q2-12

Q2-13

Q2-14

Q2-15

Q2-16

Q2-17

Q2-18

Q2-19

Mill

ions

of $

Sales Tax ReceiptsCategory Q2-2019

($, Mil.)


2018/19 2017/18

Total 14.1 2.7 -0.3

Business & Industry 2.4 32.5 -29.3

Food & Drugs 0.8 8.1 -2.3

Restaurants & Hotels 2.0 2.8 0.5

Fuel & Service Stations 1.5 2.7 15.9

General Consumer Goods 2.5 -1.3 -1.5

Autos and Transportation 1.8 -4.8 1.1

Building & Construction 1.3 -8.7 11.7


SLO Airport – Continuously Growing

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Jan-1

6

Apr-16Ju

l-16

Oct-16

Jan-1

7

Apr-17Ju

l-17

Oct-17

Jan-1

8

Apr-18Ju

l-18

Oct-18

Jan-1

9

Apr-19Ju

l-19

Pass

enge

rs

Passenger CountSan Luis Obispo Regional Airport

New Flight Routes since 2017:

- Nonstop Route to Seattle (Alaska Airlines)

- Roundtrip to San Francisco (United Airlines)

- Nonstop to Denver (United Airlines)

In April 2018 – another flight to Denver was added, as well as substituting larger planes for existing routes (360 additional passengers per day).


Agriculture Production and Exports

Source: International Trade Administration and San Luis Obispo County Department of Agriculture

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

YOY

Gro

wth

(%)

Tota

l Exp

ort V

alue

($, M

illion

s)

Crop ExportsCounty of San Luis Obispo

Total Export Value YOY Growth

Commodity 2018 ($ Mil.) 2017 ($ Mil.) % Change

Total 1,035.5 924.7 12.0

Fruit & Nut 656.6 566.6 15.9

Vegetable 230.3 210.7 9.3

Nursery 81.2 82.8 -1.9

Animal 48.6 47.9 1.4

Field 18.8 16.7 12.6

Ag. Production by Commodity, County of San Luis Obispo


Fruit & Nut Crop Production

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics and San Luis Obispo County Department of Agriculture

Commodity 2018 ($ Mil.) 2017 ($ Mil.) % Change

Total 656.6 566.6 15.9

Wine Grapes 276.0 267.7 3.1

Strawberries 268.4 228.2 17.6

Avocados 46.1 27.3 68.9

Other 40.4 26.2 54.2

Lemons 24.5 16.0 53.1

Walnuts 1.2 1.3 -7.7

Fruit & Nut Production by Type, County of San Luis Obispo

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

YOY

Cha

nge

(%)

Vineyard and Winery EstablishmentsCounty of San Luis Obispo

Wineries Vineyards


Hotel Activity

Statistics And Trends Of Rooms Business In Central CoastCBRE Hotels

AVERAGE DAILY RATE OCCUPANCY PERCENT VAR2019 2018 VAR2019 2018

MONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2019

BY LOCATION REVPAR VAR2019 2018

PISMO BEACH $199.77 -4.4%$208.93 80.01% 76.12% 5.1% $159.84 0.5%$159.04

SAN LUIS OBISPO $168.72 -1.9%$172.02 73.93% 74.98% -1.4% $124.74 -3.3%$128.98

PASO ROBLES $141.45 -4.5%$148.16 75.52% 75.20% 0.4% $106.83 -4.1%$111.41

NORTH COASTAL $218.19 -2.3%$223.39 75.63% 74.51% 1.5% $165.03 -0.9%$166.44

OVERALL AVERAGE $181.32 -3.3%$187.52 76.86% 75.40% 1.9% $139.37 -1.4%$141.39

JANUARY TO SEPTEMBER 2019


REVPAR VAR2019 2018

PISMO BEACH $204.35 1.2%$201.93 76.26% 74.97% 1.7% $155.83 2.9%$151.39

SAN LUIS OBISPO $167.14 4.5%$159.92 76.38% 77.46% -1.4% $127.67 3.1%$123.87

PASO ROBLES $138.38 0.6%$137.56 71.72% 73.45% -2.4% $99.24 -1.8%$101.03

NORTH COASTAL $199.82 2.9%$194.17 64.75% 63.88% 1.4% $129.39 4.3%$124.04

OVERALL AVERAGE $178.29 2.5%$173.99 73.48% 73.60% -0.2% $131.00 2.3%$128.06

Statistics And Trends Of Rooms Business In Santa BarbaraCBRE Hotels


MONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2019

BY LOCATION REVPAR VAR2019 2018

SANTA BARBARA / MONTECITO $254.78 3.9%$245.18 86.50% 87.42% -1.1% $220.37 2.8%$214.34

TOWN $237.51 -4.6%$248.87 86.22% 77.26% 11.6% $204.77 6.5%$192.29

CARPINTERIA $115.99 -2.1%$118.49 69.23% 74.60% -7.2% $80.30 -9.2%$88.39

GOLETA $183.25 0.7%$181.91 85.40% 78.69% 8.5% $156.50 9.3%$143.15

LOMPOC/SANTA MARIA VALLEY $143.28 -7.9%$155.58 67.04% 73.59% -8.9% $96.05 -16.1%$114.49

LOMPOC / SANTA MARIA VALLE $120.18 -11.9%$136.45 66.86% 73.64% -9.2% $80.35 -20.0%$100.48

OVERALL AVERAGE $187.64 -0.9%$189.44 79.03% 78.42% 0.8% $148.29 -0.2%$148.55

JANUARY TO SEPTEMBER 2019


REVPAR VAR2019 2018

SANTA BARBARA / MONTECITO $250.76 5.4%$237.81 79.87% 77.12% 3.6% $200.28 9.2%$183.40

TOWN $210.09 -0.3%$210.82 79.23% 79.50% -0.3% $166.47 -0.7%$167.61

CARPINTERIA $118.46 4.4%$113.51 65.55% 74.13% -11.6% $77.65 -7.7%$84.14

GOLETA $181.05 0.7%$179.81 79.52% 79.09% 0.5% $143.96 1.2%$142.21

SOLVANG / SANTA YNEZ VALLE $148.02 -1.5%$150.35 67.40% 67.02% 0.6% $99.76 -1.0%$100.77

LOMPOC / SANTA MARIA VALLE $117.64 -3.6%$121.97 63.65% 65.33% -2.6% $74.88 -6.0%$79.68

OVERALL AVERAGE $182.56 2.1%$178.88 74.34% 74.84% -0.7% $135.71 1.4%$133.87


IndustryQ2-2019 Est.

SLO


SLO SB Monterey

Total Private 10,100 3.6 2.5 4.0

Hospitality 1,100 5.5 3.4 2.3

Education/Health 2,430 3.6 1.2 5.3

Retail Trade 1,050 -0.7 0.8 0.3Manufacturing 490 3.4 3.3 3.4Construction 1,060 5.1 5.6 4.3Professional/Business 1,040 8.7 5.2 4.2Agriculture 340 4.6 1.5 3.8Admin Support 450 4.9 1.3 3.0Other Services 610 2.9 1.8 6.2Finance 900 2.6 5.0 5.0Wholesale Trade 310 3.4 2.1 0.3Information 110 6.9 -0.5 8.9

Business Formation: How Does SLO Compare?

Source: QCEW


Venture Capital

Source: PitchBook

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

De

al C

ou

nt

Capital In

veste

d (

$, M

il.)

San Luis Obispo County

Capital Invested Deal Count

Company Deal Size ($, Mi.)

Primary Industry Vertical

Hortau 20.0Electronic

Equip.

AgTech, Saas,

TMT

WhiteFox Defense

Tech.12.0

Aerospace/De

fense

Cybersecurity,

Industrials

WhiteFox Defense

Tech.12.0

Aerospace/De

fense

Cybersecurity,

Industrials

VoloAgri 10.2 Other Ag. AgTech, TMT

HaptX 8.3Electronic

Equip.

Augmented

Reality, Virtual

Reality


Equip.

AgTech, Saas,

TMT


Equip.

AgTech,

SaaS, TMT

Top 10 Deal Sizes Since Jan. 2018


§ Designed to promote economic development along the Central Coast – the Hourglass Project is a coalition of private industry leaders and government officials who have come together to promote high quality jobs.

Some of the goals of the project include:

1. Outline goals for regional jobs, as well as develop a regional playbook for implementing the goals.

2. Develop jobs in fast-growing and high paying industries

3. Policy development that would support economic opportunity on the Central Coast

4. Create a regional economic/business database for the Central Coast.

Spotlight: The Hourglass Project

Source: Hourglass Project


Nonresidential Rents and Vacancies

Source: REIS

OfficeCost of Rent Vacancy Rate

Q2-2019 1-Year Growth Q2-2019 1-Year Change

Santa Barbara 26.2 1.6 10.0 -2.8

San Luis Obispo 19.2 1.0 10.3 0.0

Retail

Santa Barbara 27.8 0.8 7.6 1.5

San Luis Obispo 21.6 0.7 10.7 0.2


Commercial Permits

Source: HdL

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2018

YTD

2019

YTD

Valu

es ($

, Tho

usan

ds)

Commercial Permit Valuation

*YTD references year-to-date as of Q2

Permit TypePermit Valuation ($) YoY %

Growth2019 YTD 2018 YTD

Commercial 37,346 11,589 222

Retail 23,068 2,956 681

Alterations 19,523 29,358 -33

Hotel 11,186 8,300 35

Office 1,570 334 370


Labor Market

Source: EDD

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sep-0

4

Sep-0

5

Sep-0

6

Sep-0

7

Sep-0

8

Sep-0

9

Sep-1

0

Sep-1

1

Sep-1

2

Sep-1

3

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

5

Sep-1

6

Sep-1

7

Sep-1

8

Sep-1

9

%

Unemployment Rate

Monterey Santa Barbara San Luis Obispo

90

95

100

105

110

115

Sep

-04

May

-05

Jan-

06S

ep-0

6M

ay-0

7Ja

n-08

Sep

-08

May

-09

Jan-

10S

ep-1

0M

ay-1

1Ja

n-12

Sep

-12

May

-13

Jan-

14S

ep-1

4M

ay-1

5Ja

n-16

Sep

-16

May

-17

Jan-

18S

ep-1

8M

ay-1

9

Inde

x at

100

Labor Force GrowthIndexed at 100

Monterey Santa Barbara San Luis Obispo


Population Growth is Slowing Down

Source: DOF

City 2019Pop.

1-Year Growth 5-Year

Growth% Abs.

Unincorporated 121,855 0.3% 351 1.2%

Atascadero 30,405 0.2% 52 3.3%

Paso Robles 31,244 0.1% 40 1.3%

San Luis Obispo 46,802 0.1% 61 1.9%

Arroyo Grande 17,876 0.0% -4 1.1%

Pismo Beach 8,239 -0.1% -12 3.3%

Grover Beach 13,533 -0.6% -84 0.3%

Morro Bay 10,439 -0.6% -59 0.3%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

245,000

250,000

255,000

260,000

265,000

270,000

275,000

280,000

285,000

200420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

1620

1720

1820

19

YO

Y G

row

th

Tota

l Popula

tion

Population GrowthCounty of San Luis Obispo

Population YOY Growth

Population by City, San Luis Obispo County

0.1% YOY


Population Composition

Source: DOF

Age2018 10-Year Change

San Luis Obispo Santa Barbara Monterey San Luis Obispo Santa

Barbara Monterey

Total population 284,010 446,527 435,594 7.1% 10.1% 6.7%

under 25 33.1% 38.1% 36.2% -1.2 -0.2 -2.5

25 to 34 11.6% 13.3% 14.2% -1.6 0.1 -0.8

35 to 44 10.7% 11.3% 13.1% -0.9 -1.1 -0.4

45 to 54 10.7% 10.8% 11.7% -4.3 -2.6 -1.5

55 to 64 13.7% 11.3% 11.1% 2.1 1.3 1.6

65 to 74 12.5% 8.4% 7.9% 5.5 2.4 2.7

75 and older 7.8% 6.9% 5.7% 0.4 0.1 0.8


Education and Earnings

Source: ACS

Education Attainment(Pop. 25+)

Educational Attainment (2018) 3-Year Change

SB SLO MON SB SLO MON

Total Pop. (000s) 277.2 190.1 277.9 1.2% 1.5% 1.4%

< HS 8.9% 18.5% 27.6% -1.8 -3.2 1.0

HS Grad 19.8% 18.8% 21.0% 0.8 3.1 -2.1

Some College 36.5% 27.8% 26.6% -2.2 -2.5 -1.5

Bachelor’s 21.8% 20.0% 14.7% 1.1 0.9 1.5

Graduate 12.9% 14.7% 10.1% 2.1 1.8 1.1


Residential Real Estate

Source: DataQuick

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q2-04

Q4-05

Q2-07

Q4-08

Q2-10

Q4-11

Q2-13

Q4-14

Q2-16

Q4-17

Q2-19

Hom

e S

ales

Med

ian

Hom

e P

rices

($, T

hous

ands

)

Existing Single-family Homes

Median Prices Home Sales

Region Median Prices ($)

1-Year % Growth

Paso Robles 524,173 12.5

San Luis Obispo MSA 629,971 5.2

Arroyo Grande 695,626 -0.5

San Luis Obispo 774,761 -1.9

Atascadero 520,268 -3.8

Grover Beach 519,479 -8.7


Apartment Rents and Vacancies

Source: REIS

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Q1-09Q4-0

9Q3-1

0Q2-1

1Q1-1

2Q4-1

2Q3-1

3Q2-1

4Q1-1

5Q4-1

5Q3-1

6Q2-1

7Q1-1

8Q4-1

8

$

Cost of Rent

Santa Barbara San Luis Obispo

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q1-09Q4-0

9Q3-1

0Q2-1

1Q1-1

2Q4-1

2Q3-1

3Q2-1

4Q1-1

5Q4-1

5Q3-1

6Q2-1

7Q1-1

8Q4-1

8

%

Vacancy Rates

Santa Barbara San Luis Obispo


Affordability

Source: ACS

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

%

Gross Rent as % of Household Income

San Luis Obispo Santa Barbara Monterey

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

%

Median Monthly Owner Cost as % of Household Income

San Luis Obispo Santa Barbara Monterey


Construction in SLO

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Q1

-0

9

Q4

-0

9

Q3

-1

0

Q2

-1

1

Q1

-1

2

Q4

-1

2

Q3

-1

3

Q2

-1

4

Q1

-1

5

Q4

-1

5

Q3

-1

6

Q2

-1

7

Q1

-1

8

Q4

-1

8

Esta

blishm

ents

Em

plo

ym

ent

ConstructionEmployment and Establishments

Employment Establishments

Source: QCEW, The Tribune: sanluisobispo.com

3 Active Projects:

- 160 homes in San Luis Obispo

- Almost 20 homes in Atascadero

- Over 140 active home projects in Paso

Robles, to be completed by mid 2020.

Downtown SLO is ramping up:

- Mixed-use space including housing and

commercial space are currently in

development in Downtown SLO.


Residential Permits

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2018

YTD

2019

YTD

Num

ber o

f Per

mits

Total PermitsSan Luis Obispo


City

Single-family Multifamily

2019 YTD

2018 YTD

2019 YTD

2018 YTD

SLO County Unincorp. 188 111 0 0

San Luis Obispo 61 43 7 65

Morro Bay 20 33 0 0

Atascadero 14 10 0 0

Paso Robles 14 13 7 0

Arroyo Grande 9 12 4 0

Grover Beach 8 8 2 15

Pismo Beach 7 4 0 2


Housing Stock

Source: DOF 48

San Luis ObispoCities


2019 (000s)

3-Year Growth

2019 (000s)

3-Year Growth

County Total 90.0 1.7 22.0 2.0

Pismo Beach 4.0 3.2 1.0 2.5

Atascadero 9.1 2.2 2.5 3.2

Unincorporated 40.6 1.9 3.5 0.4

San Luis Obispo 11.2 1.4 8.6 2.8El Paso De Robles 9.2 1.4 2.4 2.0

Arroyo Grande 6.0 1.1 1.2 0.0

Morro Bay 5.0 1.0 1.0 2.5

Grover Beach 4.2 0.9 1.4 0.3

County


2019 (000s)

3-Yr Growth

2019(000s)

3-Yr Growth

San Luis Obispo 90.0 1.9 22.0 3.4

Santa Barbara 103.8 1.9 48.1 3.3

Monterey 98.1 1.2 37.1 1.0

Ventura 216.5 0.5 61.8 2.5


Using the Right Tool at the Right Time

Industrial Workforce Environmental

Recession Risk Mitigation Social Support Public Investments

RecoveryRebuilding

Supply Chains, Customer Bases

General Training

PPP Investments, LR

Planning

Early Expansion

Industry Outreach, Seed

Investments

Occupational Training

Expanding Public Assets,

Filling Economic Gaps

Late Expansion

Technology Adoption

Career Pathways

Housing / Infrastructure


Housing = Economic Development

010002000300040005000600070008000

Q1-

95Q

2-96

Q3-

97Q

4-98

Q1-

00Q

2-01

Q3-

02Q

4-03

Q1-

05Q

2-06

Q3-

07Q

4-08

Q1-

10Q

2-11

Q3-

12Q

4-13

Q1-

15Q

2-16

Q3-

17

Residential Permits LA County

Single Famile Multi-Family

2% Job Growth90,000 Jobs

1.5 Jobs / HH60,000

24,400


§2% LF Growth: 2700§Number Housing Units: 2250§Permits Needed: 2475§Permits :Last Year: 850

A Simple Calculation

SUPPLEMENTAL DENSITY BONUSAllow up to 100% Bonus

• Project Eligibility Requirements:

üAchieves 35% State Bonus and

üLocated within a Priority Development Area or Station Area and

üLocated within appropriate General Plan Land Use Designation

• Density above 35% granted for:

üAffordable Housing or

üAffordable Housing and Community Benefits52

Programmatic and Policy Updates53

$24,000

$9,000

10Months

3Months

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

Original Downtown

Design Review Process

53City Council Ordinance ORD-2018-012, May 22, 2018

8

2

4

1

6

3

NORMAL EXPRESS

EXPRESS PERMITTING PROGRAMPlanning Engineering Building

~ 18 Months

~ 6 Months

High Density Residential Incentive Program (Market Rate)

54

54

Parking/Commercial

Parking/Commercial

Parking/Commercial

Parking/Commercial

Parking/Commercial

2nd Floor

3rd Floor

4th Floor

5th Floor

6th Floor

7th Floor

8th Floor

9th Floor

10th Floor

0%$13,167

25%$9,875

40%$7,900

50%$6,584

67%$4,389

Downtown Zoning CD-7 and CD-10Market Rate Example

Per Door Park and CFF Fee


What can Beacon do for you?

55

Housing, Land Use, & Real Estate

Advisory

Sustainable Growth and

Development

Economic & Revenue

Forecasting

Economic, Fiscal and Social Impact

Analysis

Regional and Sub-Regional Analysis

Litigation and Testimony

For more information, see Slide 2.

Continue the conversation.

Contact Dr. Chris Thornberg directly at [email protected] or 310.571.3399

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Portfolio Spotlight

56

Housing, Land Use, &

Real Estate Advisory

Economic & revenue

forecasting

Litigation and

testimony

Sustainable Growth &

Development

Impact (Economic,

Fiscal, Social) & EB5

Analysis

Regional and Sub-

Regional Analysis

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Past Clients:

• City and County of Los Angeles• City and County of Riverside • East Bay Economic Dev. Agency

Beacon has evaluated the impact of entities like universities, music festivals, infrastructure projects, and real estate development projects. Beacon has also conducted impact analyses that combine more than one of the above like that of L.A’s Olympic bid.

Past Clients:

• University of Southern California• Metropolitan Water District• LA 2024 Olympic Bid Committee

Beacon conducts industry and policy analysis on topics like green innovation, tech and workforce development, and industry sector strategies. Beacon has strong in-house expertise around housing policy and economic development support.

Past Clients:

• California Apartment Association• Long Beach Downtown Dev. Corp.• Santa Cruz Workforce Dev. Board

Beacon Economics

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the economic outlook€¦ · silicon valley,” joel kotkin, professor of urban studies at chapman...

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