pur guide jeffrey kotkin, vice president – investor relations
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PUR Guide Jeffrey Kotkin, Vice President – Investor Relations. APRIL 25, 2012. Who Is The Investing Public?. Buy Side Sell Side. Mutual FundsInvestment Banks Pension FundsBrokerage Firms BanksIndependent Analysts Investment AdvisorsCredit Rating Agencies Insurance Companies - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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PUR GuideJeffrey Kotkin, Vice President – Investor Relations
APRIL 25, 2012
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Who Is The Investing Public?
Buy Side Sell Side
Mutual Funds Investment BanksPension Funds Brokerage FirmsBanks Independent AnalystsInvestment Advisors Credit Rating AgenciesInsurance CompaniesNonprofit TrustsIndividual InvestorsEmployee Stock Ownership Plans
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What Do They Have Invested in NU?
$4,013Common Equity
(Book Value)
$5,264Short and Long Term
Debt
$116Preferred
Stock
As of 12/31/11 (in millions)
Let’s Look At The Common Stock First
79%10%
3% 8%
470 Institutions that file
with the SEC
38,000 registered
holders
9,000 active and retired employees in
retirement plan
177 Million SharesAs of 12/31/11
Other individual
and institutional
holders
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How Have NU Shares Done vs. the Market?
11%
-23%
7%3%
-38%
23%
12%17%
7%
-1%
9%
24%
43%
-3%
14%
4%
13%7%
13%
-30%
2%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
NU S&P 500 Dow Utilities
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 March 2012
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Steady Dividend Growth$0
.10 $0
.15
$0.1
65
$0.1
75
$0.1
875
$0.2
0
$0.2
125
$0.2
375
$0.2
5625
$0.2
75
$0.2
9375
$0.1
25
$0.1
375
$0.00
$0.04
$0.08
$0.12
$0.16
$0.20
$0.24
$0.28
12/99-6/01
9/01-6/02
9/02-6/03
9/03-6/04
9/04-6/05
9/05-6/06
9/06-6/07
9/07-6/08
9/08-12/08
2009 2010 2011 2012(Mar.)
Quarterly Dividends Per Share
Major Buy Side Institutions and Related Mutual Funds
1. Vanguard 11.1 million
2. BlackRock Fund Advisors 10.2 million
3. Wellington Management 10.1 million
4. State Street 9.7 million
5. J.P. Morgan Asset Management 8.4 million
6. BlackRock Advisors 4.3 million
7. Goldman Sachs Asset Management 3.3 million
8. Wells Fargo Advisors 3.3 million
9. Fidelity 2.8 million
10. D. E. Shaw 2.7 million
NU Shares Held 12/31/11
Index FundActively Managed FundHedge Fund
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Employee Ownership Of NU Shares
• 401(k): 702,000 shares owned by 2,437 employees/retirees choosing NU Common Share Fund as option
• ESOP: 4.07 million shares owned by approximately 8,445 employees/retirees through 3% match of 401(k) contributions
• TRAESOP/PAYSOP: 688,000 shares owned by 1,800 employees/retirees; 1980’s vintage tax-advantaged stock ownership plan
• ESPP II: 1.1 million shares bought by employees since 2001 through 5% discount (originally 15%) on share purchases
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What Do Analysts Say About NU Shares?
Firm Analyst Rating Est. 2012 EPS Est. 2013 EPS Price Target
Wells Fargo Neil Kalton Buy $2.40 $2.60 $40.50
BOA/Merrill Lynch Steve Fleishman Buy $2.36 $2.55 $40.00
Williams Capital Chris Ellinghaus Buy $2.46 $2.61 $40.00
UBS Jim von Riesemann Hold $2.52 $2.58 $36.00
Wunderlich Jay Dobson Hold $2.35 $2.54 $37.00
Wellington Shields Maury May Buy $2.37 $2.55 $39.50
BMO Capital Mike Worms Hold $2.44 $2.61 $35.00
Gabelli Tim Winter Buy $2.45 N/A $35.00
Goldman Sachs Michael Lapides Buy $2.46 $2.62 $39.00
Deutsche Bank Jonathan Arnold Hold $2.35 $2.55 $36.50
ISI Group Greg Gordon Hold $2.40 $2.55 $38.50
Macquarie Andrew Weisel Hold $2.36 $2.54 $37.00
US Capital Advisors Dan Fidell Buy $2.45 $2.60 $38.00
Edward Jones Paul Franzen Buy $2.45 N/A N/A
Brean Murray Michael Gaugler Buy $2.48 $2.60 $45.00
Average $2.42 $2.55 $38.36
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Price/Earnings Ratio: A Common Way To Value Stock
Price Divided By Adjusted NU Earnings
• 2011 NU Earnings $36.00/$2.38 = 15.1
• 2012 NU Earnings $36.00/$2.42 = 14.9
• 2013 Consensus NU Earnings $36.00/$2.58 = 14.0
• 2014 Consensus NU Earnings $36.00/$2.72 = 13.2
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$116 Million Of Preferred Stock
• All at CL&P• All perpetual• All issued between 1947 and 1968• Interest rates range between 3.80% and 6.48%• In times of stress, subordinated to debt, ahead of common• Owned by about 1,400 holders, many individual investors
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How Is Our Debt Rated?
Standard & Poor’s/Fitch Moody’sAAA AaaAA+ Aa1AA Aa2AA- Aa3A+ A1A CL&P Bonds (F), PSNH Bonds (F) A2 A- CL&P Bonds (S), PSNH Bonds (S) A3 PSNH Bonds, CL&P Bonds
CL&P Unsecured (S&F), WMECO Unsecured (S&F) Baa1BBB+ NU Unsecured (S&F) Baa2 CL&P, PSNH, WMECO, NU UnsecuredBBB CL&P Preferred (S&F) Baa3 CL&P Preferred
BB+ Ba1BB Ba2BB- Ba3B+ B1B B2B- B3CCC+ Caa1
Inve
stm
ent
Gra
deN
on-In
vest
men
tG
rade
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What Kind Of Long-Term Debt Do We Have?
$2,981$513
$765
$301$390
In Millionsas of 12/31/11
Spent nuclear fuel
obligations at CL&P, WMECO
Tax-exempt bonds, notes at CL&P, PSNH,
WMECOParent
Company Notes
Taxable first mortgage bonds at CL&P, PSNH,
Yankee Gas
WMECO Unsecured
Notes
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Where Is NU’s Credit Access (in millions)
$500
$300
$400
CL&P
RegulatedCompanies NU
Total = $1.2 Billion
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