the development advisor 2009 annual atlanta market review
DESCRIPTION
THE DEVELOPMENT ADVISOR 2009 ANNUAL ATLANTA MARKET REVIEW. ABSORPTION. ABSORPTION. SALES PRICE. SALES PRICE. SALES PRICE. FORECLOSURES – NEW CONSTRUCTION. FORECLOSURES – RESALE. CURRENT INVENTORY. CURRENT INVENTORY. PERMITS – SINGLE FAMILY. SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS – 2006 – 4Q09. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
THE DEVELOPMENT ADVISOR
2009 ANNUAL ATLANTA MARKET REVIEW
ABSORPTION
All Sales Condominium /
Townhome Single Family Combined
4Q08 2,866 12,586 15,452change +36.6% +11.4% +16.1%4Q09 3,915 14,018 17,9333Q09 4,006 15,659 19,6652Q09 3,515 15,466 18,9811Q09 2,493 11,684 14,177
ABSORPTION
New Construction
Condominium / Townhome Single Family Combined
YTD - 2008 3,283 10,021 13,304change -17.3% -22.6% -21.3%
YTD - 2009 2,714 7,755 10,469
Resale Only
YTD - 2008 11,255 48,960 60,215change -0.3% +0.2% +0.1%
YTD - 2009 11,215 49,072 60,287
SALES PRICE
SALES PRICE
SALES PRICE
New Construction
Condominium / Townhome Single Family
YTD - 2008 $215,618 $319,518change -9.8% -11.2%
YTD - 2009 $194,576 $283,887
Resale Only YTD - 2008 $151,101 $196,397
change -17.4% -16.0%YTD - 2009 $124,765 $165,099
FORECLOSURES – NEW CONSTRUCTION
Single Family Absorption (Closed
Units) % of Total New
Construction Sales Sales Price
YTD - 2008 997 9.9% $226,256change +130.3% +199.0% +8.7%
YTD - 2009 2,296 29.6% $245,840
Condominium / Townhome
YTD - 2008 184 5.6% $115,416change +223.9% +292.9% +24.8%
YTD - 2009 596 22.0% $144,000
FORECLOSURES – RESALE
Single Family Absorption (Closed
Units) % of Total Resale
Sales Sales Price
YTD - 2008 15,779 32.2% $119,422change +15.4% +15.2% -11.7%
YTD - 2009 18,205 37.1% $105,457
Condominium / Townhome
YTD - 2008 3,091 27.5% $105,370change +36.0% +36.4% -19.8%
YTD - 2009 4,203 37.5% $84,550
CURRENT INVENTORY
ALL ACTIVE LISTINGS:
Condominium / Townhome Single Family Combined
As of end 4Q08 18,191 57,305 75,496change -18.3% -27.1% -25.0%
As of end 4Q09 14,858 41,755 56,613As of end 3Q09 16,429 50,721 67,150As of end 2Q09 16,872 48,890 67,762As of end 1Q09 18,327 53,537 71,864
CURRENT INVENTORY
NewConstruction
Condominium / Townhome Single Family Combined
As of end 4Q08 5,248 11,275 16,523change -41.5% -53.2% -49.5%
As of end 4Q09 3,069 5,274 8,343As of end 3Q09 3,848 6,775 10,623As of end 2Q09 4,064 7,470 11,534As of end 1Q09 4,933 9,837 14,770
Resale Only
As of end 4Q08 12,943 46,030 58,973change -8.9% -20.7% -18.1%
As of end 4Q09 11,789 36,481 48,270As of end 3Q09 12,581 43,946 56,527As of end 2Q09 12,808 41,420 54,228As of end 1Q09 13,394 43,700 57,094
PERMITS – SINGLE FAMILY
SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS – 2006 – 4Q09
PERMITS – MULTI-FAMILY
MULTI-FAMILY PERMITS – 2006 – 4Q09
THE DEVELOPMENT ADVISOR
2009 ANNUAL ATLANTA MARKET REVIEW
Condominium Approval and Consumer Financing in a Changing Environment
Dave NielsenNational Condominium Sales Manager
City Club Buckhead
February 25, 2010
15
Condominium Project Approval Standards
Governing Factors GSE Policy MI Policy Lender Policy
Government Sponsored Enterprises FNMA FHLMC FHA VA
• Mortgage Insurance Companies
16
Fannie Mae
Policy - Highlights Presale Budget Review
HOA delinquency & 10% reserves
Owner occupancy Single Entity Ownership
Exceptions/Variances Sub phasing & presale Budget & Reserves Commercial space allowance Developer rentals – 10% entity & owner occupancy
17
FHA
New Policy – Effective 12/7/09 All projects “Existing & New Construction” require approval For 2010 – 30% presale For 2010 – 50% exposure with some allowance to 60% 10 year structural warranty not required 2+ unit projects allowed Detached no longer requires approval Right of refusal can be allowed 25% commercial space allowance 10% line item required for reserves 10% single entity ownership 15% maximum HOA delinquency
Few if any exceptions allowed
18
FHA
Approval Processes DELRAP
Lender Delegated Review & Approval Process
HRAP HUD Review & Approval Process
19
VA
Policy 70% Presale Requirement Will allow new construction project in Flood Zone Will NOT accept any Right of Refusal language Will not reciprocate with FHA approvals unless the FHA
approval was approved prior to 12/7/09
20
Reciprocity
• FNMA will no longer accept FHA approvals• FHA never did accept FNMA• VA will not accept FHA
• Three separate and distinct “GSE” approvals may now be required for single project.
21
MI Companies
Starting to see some enhancements – slowly Probably lender/portfolio specific? 95% LTV availability Credit overlays Agency project approval requirements
22
What does it all mean?
Maintain an understanding of requirements Understand your local market Variances require careful analysis and a plan Be ready & willing to make amendments/changes Be very proactive and pre-emptive
THE DEVELOPMENT ADVISOR
2009 ANNUAL ATLANTA MARKET REVIEW
For more information, visit
www.NRTDevelopmentAdvisors.com and
www.CBVirtualViews.com.