metro atlanta real estate market trends july 2013

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Greater Metro Atlanta Market

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Real estate market trends for the Greater Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market. See the latest real estate statistics and the performance of Prudential Georgia Realty.

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Page 1: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Greater

Metro Atlanta

Market

Page 2: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

125,000 Homes Sold In 2006. 60,000 Homes Sold in 2010. 2013 Closings Down Due To Low Inventory And Higher Fallout Rates.

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40000

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100000

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Metro Atlanta Homes Sold

Page 3: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Listed Inventory June 2011 – June 2013

Residential Detached - Metro Atlanta

• Inventory Levels Down 19% from June 2012, 48.7% from June 2011

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Page 4: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

6.2

4.9 5.0

4.34.0 4.1

3.8

4.4

3.9 4.0 3.9

4.64.2

3.5 3.4 3.3

3.8

7.4

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Jan

FebM

arA

prM

ayJu

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ugSep

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ovD

ecJa

nFeb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Metro Atlanta – Months Of Supply

(Based Upon Closed Sales)

6 Months Is Considered A Normal Market

Page 5: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

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5

10

15

20

25

30

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45

< $100K $100K-

$200K

$200K-

$500K

$500K-

$750K

$750K-$1

Mil

$1 mil - $2

Mil

$2 Mil +

Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory (Based On Closed Sales)

It Is A Sellers Market Below $500K In Most Areas.

6 Months Supply Is Considered A Normal Market

Page 6: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Investors See The Opportunity To Buy Low, Lease & Sell High For Single Family Properties!

This Is Causing A Shortage Of Inventory Under $200,000.

Page 7: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Average Sales Price Up 38.5% In 2013

$184$201

$217$233

$241$255

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Metro Atlanta 2013 Average Sale Prices

Page 8: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Average Sales Price Increasing From Bottom Of 2011

$241$253

$261$268

$209

$189 $190$176 $183

$221

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Metro Atlanta Average Annual Sale Price Trend

Page 9: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Chart Shows Index Results January 2010 Through April 2013 (As Reported June 2013)

80

85

90

95

100

105

110Jan

Mar

May

Ju

l

Sep

Nov

Jan

Mar

May

Ju

ly

Sep

t

Nov

Jan

Mar

May

Ju

ly

Sep

t

Nov

Jan

Mar

Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta

Up 20.8% in Last 12 Months!

Page 10: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

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1401995

1996

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Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta

• Peak was July 2007. Current Home Values Remain Below The

Normal Trend Line. But Prices Are Slowly Correcting!

Page 11: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

-0.3 -0.3

2.41.8

2.11.8

-1.0

-6.2

2.6

1.72.0 2.1

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

U.S. GDP

Georgia GSP

Georgia Economy Outperforming

The National Economy In 2013 (Terry College of Business – University of Georgia)

Page 12: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

• Georgia Lost 325,000 Jobs In The Great Recession.

• 2012 Restarted Positive Job Growth Trend!

-250,000

-50,000-25,000

68,400 63,30076,500

94,400

-300000

-250000

-200000

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

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100000

150000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

More Jobs In Georgia! (Data From Terry College of Business/ UGA& Georgia State Economic Forecasting Center)

Page 13: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Major Group Moves

And More Coming …

Page 14: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Rustbelt To Sunbelt

Page 15: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

4,944,939

7,377,951

8,256,323

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ARC 20-Cty Population

Forecast Population Growth 20-County Forecast Area

Page 16: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close

To Their Children & Grandchildren.

Source :Census Bureau

Total Population

Rank of Share

Under 20 20-64 65+ 25-39 45-59

Dallas 6,144,489 3 9 25 1 24

Atlanta 5,271,550 5 6 27 2 19

Phoenix 4,179,427 4 24 15 3 26

Denver 2,466,591 11 5 24 4 12

Riverside 4,081,371 1 27 22 5 27

Houston 5,629,127 2 10 26 6 21

Portland 2,174,631 19 4 19 7 7

Seattle 3,309,347 22 1 20 8 3

Sacramento 2,091,120 12 13 14 9 20

Washington 5,306,125 14 3 23 10 11

Los Angeles 12,875,587 6 17 18 11 23

San Diego 2,974,859 8 14 16 12 25

San Francisco 4,203,898 26 2 10 13 4

Orlando 2,032,496 18 15 8 14 22

Minneapolis 3,208,212 10 7 21 15 6

Chicago 9,522,879 7 16 17 16 18

New York 18,815,988 21 12 6 17 15

Boston 4,482,857 23 8 9 18 10

Cincinnati 2,134,864 9 19 13 19 14

Baltimore 2,668,056 17 11 11 20 9

Detroit 4,467,592 13 18 12 21 5

Philadelphia 5,827,962 16 21 5 22 13

St. Louis 2,802,282 15 20 7 23 8

Miami 5,413,212 24 26 3 24 17

Tampa 2,723,949 25 25 1 25 16

Cleveland 2,096,471 20 23 4 26 2

Pittsburgh 2,355,712 27 22 2 27 1

Metro Atlanta Has The:

•#2 Population Age 25-39

•#5 Population Under 20

Page 17: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Atlanta is 56% Cheaper To Buy!

Metro Atlanta Is 56% Better To Buy Than Rent

Page 18: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

• New Household Formation Dropped From 1.2 Mil (2006) To 400,000 (2008)

• Growing To 1.2 Million In 2013. Lots Of Pent-Up Demand.

• 4 Million Students Per Year Graduate From College For Next 10 Years!

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015

U. S. Household Formation Trends Demand For 1st Time Buyers Will Be Strong!

Source: U.S. Census, JCHS Household Growth Projections, Goldman Sachs

Page 19: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Prices Improving and Mortgage Rates Rising. But Home Affordability Remains Historically Favorable.

207

187 187197 194

160 154146 141

116

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Q1

2012

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2013

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

National Housing Affordability Index (Combination of home prices and mortgage rates)

Page 20: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Average Rates Around 8%

Page 21: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

4.9 4.9

3.9

4.9

4.4

3.8

4.7

5.0

4.4

4.8

3.5

4.6

4.4

4.2

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5.5

Freddie Mac & Mortgage Bankers Association

30-Year Fixed Rate Forecast (June 2013)

2010 – 2014 Quarterly Averages

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Freddie Mac

MBA

Page 22: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Amount Of

Mortgage

3.5%

Mortgage

30-Year

Cost

5%

Mortgage

30-Year

Cost

8%

Mortgage

30-Year

Cost

$200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120

$300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360

$400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600

$500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480

$1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320

Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A

Significant Difference In Home Affordability

Page 23: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Metro Atlanta

New Homes

Charts Provided By SmartNumbers and ViaSearch

Page 24: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Metro Atlanta Closings

Blue – Resale Red – New Homes

New Homes Closings Up 55% From Last Year. Resale Units In 2012 At Levels Not

Seen Since 2006. But Almost 50% Of Resale Units From Investors Under $200k.

Page 25: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Buyer Types For New Homes

First Time Buyers And Baby Boomers Remain Most Active Segments.

We Are Looking To See The 1st & 2nd Move-Up Buyers Return.

Page 26: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

New Home Permits

New Home Starts Growing Steadily!

Page 27: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Metro Atlanta Inventory (Black Arrow Is Population Trend)

Population Trends Growing Faster Than Inventory

Page 28: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Prudential

Georgia

Realty

Ranked #1 In Homes Sold – 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and YTD 2013

Page 29: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

876

4540

719

5299

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PGR Market

June 2013 Closings Vs. June 2012 Closings

• PGR Closings Were Up 21.8% Compared To June 2012.

• The Market Was Down 14.3% Compared To June 2012.

• PGR Pendings Were Up 33.4% Compared To June 2012!

PGR

Outperforms

The Market

By 36.1%!

Page 30: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

4161

25600

3711

26718

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PGR Market

YTD 2013 Closings Vs. YTD 2012 Closings

(Data As of June 2013)

PGR

Outperforms

The Market

By 16.3%!

• PGR Closings Were Up 12.1% Compared To YTD 2012.

• The Market Was Down 4.2% Compared To YTD 2012.

• PGR Pendings Were Up 25.3% Compared To YTD 2012!

Page 31: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Information Provided By Trendgraphix. PGR Numbers Internal.

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PGR HNR KW-AP CB MB SS AFH

YTD Transactions – June 2013

FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent

6%

4.8% 4.5%

3.9% 3.6%

2.4%

1.6%

Page 32: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Information Provided By Trendgraphix.

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PGR HNR KW-AP CB MB SS AFH

YTD Listing Sales – June 2013

FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent

Page 33: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Information Provided By Trendgraphix.

Buyer Sales Units – June 2013

FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent

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PGR HNR KW-AP MB CB SS AFH

Page 34: Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends July 2013

Information Provided By Trendgraphix. PGR Numbers Internal.

Current Listing Inventory – June 2013

FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent

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PGR HNR KW-AP MB CB AFH SS