the challenge of improving knowledge about earthquakes · the challenge of improving knowledge...
TRANSCRIPT
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WORK PACKAGE 2 [WP2]
THE CHALLENGE OF IMPROVING
KNOWLEDGE ABOUT
EARTHQUAKES
1st Symposium
November 28th, 2017
Jessie MAYOR, EDFEmmanuelle NAYMAN, EDF
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OUTLINE
1. Tasks & Objectivesa. Motivations & Methodsb. Overviewc. Interactions with other Work Packages
Focus on…
2. Data Mining actions
3. Archeo Seismicity actions
4. Quantification of Magnitude & Depth Estimation actions
5. Conclusions & Outlooks
1st symposium- November 28th, 2017 2
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Motivation 1: input for seismotectonic zonation – WP1
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SEISMOTECTONIC ZONATION IN DETERMINISTIC & PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES
Simulated GR law
Averaged GR law
Determination of Recurrence ModelsRegionalization
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Motivation 2: input for estimation of max. magnitude – WP5
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MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE IN DETERMINISTIC & PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES
PSHA in Europe (SHARE project)
Zentner (2017) – WP5
Generalized Extreme Value (GEV)Data = 5.0 ≤ 𝑀𝑤 ≤ 7.0Mmax = 7.002
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Motivation 3: input for GMPE & prediction of IDP – WP3
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𝑙𝑜𝑔10 𝑆𝐴 𝑓 = 𝑐1 +𝜔
2𝑐𝑄𝑅 + 𝑆𝑖𝑡𝑒 + 𝑐3𝑀𝑤 + 𝑐4𝑀𝑤
2
+ (c5+c6Mw)f2 + c9 + c10Mw f0
Δ𝐼 = 𝐼0 𝑀𝑤 , ℎ − 𝐼
= 𝑐1𝑅 + 𝑐2 + 𝑐3𝐼0 𝑀𝑤 , ℎ log10(𝑅 + 1)
Slaughterville, OK (SA, 1Hz)
GMPE (i.e: Atkinson & Boore, 2006)
Macroseismic attenuation model(i.e: Arroucau et al., 2006)
over-prediction
under-
prediction
Pasyanos, 2014
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Objectives & Tasks
6
MAIN OBJECTIVE
Reduce uncertainties of the 3-D location and the size (M) of the earthquake
To achieve this goal:
• Acquire new data,
• Improve data quality,
• Develop methodologies
AVAILABLE DATA
Historical and Instrumental
METHOD
• Data-Mining
• Archeoseismicity
• Numerical approach
Manchuel et al., (2017)
Catalog FCAT-17: product of SIGMA1
WP 2: Improve the knowledge of seismic sources
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TASKS & OBJECTIVES
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WP2 Overview
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91st symposium - November 28th, 2017
FOCUS ON DATAMINING ACTIONS
EXPECTED LIVRABLES
Guidelines & new methodology
Action applied to SisFrance historical database
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DISPERSED
CENTRALIZED
WEB CRAWLER
TEXT MINING
OCROptical Character Recognition
EXTRACTED
STRUCTURED
NEW DATABASEUNDER EXPERT VALIDATION
ENRICH HISTORICAL SEISMOLOGICAL DATABASE
DATA IN
DATA OUT
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DISPERSED
CENTRALIZED
DATA IN
DATA OUT
WEB CRAWLER
TEXT MINING
OCROptical Character Recognition
EXTRACTED
STRUCTURED
NEW DATABASEUNDER EXPERT VALIDATION
ENRICH HISTORICAL SEISMOLOGICAL DATABASE
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DISPERSED
CENTRALIZED
WEB CRAWLER
TEXT MINING
OCROptical Character Recognition
EXTRACTED
STRUCTURED
NEW DATABASEUNDER EXPERT VALIDATION
ENRICH HISTORICAL SEISMOLOGICAL DATABASE
DATA IN
DATA OUT
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DISPERSED
CENTRALIZED
WEB CRAWLER
TEXT MINING
OCROptical Character Recognition
EXTRACTED
STRUCTURED
NEW DATABASEUNDER EXPERT VALIDATION
ENRICH HISTORICAL SEISMOLOGICAL DATABASE
DATA IN
DATA OUT
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151st symposium - November 28th, 2017
FOCUS ON ARCHEO-SEISMICITY ACTIONS
EXPECTED LIVRABLES
Guidelines & new methodology
Action applied to specific earthquake in Bas-Dauphine region, France
Post-doc
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EARTHQUAKE DESTRUCTION RECONSTRUCTIONVULNERABILITY RISK
HISTORY
Testimonies on damages &
Building Reconstruction
MACROSEISMIC ANALYSIS
IMPACTS & INTENSITY
Earthquake parameters
assessment
HISTORICO-SOCIO-CULTURAL DATA
Evolution of restoration practices after
seismic damages
STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING
Analysis of the behavior ofthe buildings
Assessment of the seismicvulnerability of the structure
Reading and analysishistorical building
Structural analysis of historical building under seismic load
Modelling
FOCUS ON ARCHEO-SEISMICITY ACTIONS
COMPUTING
Numerical modelling Ambiant noise analysis (free
field and buildings) Photogrammetric model
ARCHAEOLOGY & GEOLOGY
Analysis & identification of the buildingphases and building materials
Restoration practices Reconstitution of the construction process
From RECAP project
A pluridisciplinary approach
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181st symposium - November 28th, 2017
FOCUS ON QUANTIFICATION OF M & H ESTIMATIONS
EXPECTED LIVRABLES
PhD thesis
Action applied to Pyrenees data
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191st symposium - November 28th, 2017
FOCUS ON QUANTIFICATION OF M & H ESTIMATIONS
CONTEXT: Low-to-Moderate seismic region(i.e: Northern Europe)
Mw from SIHEX project (France)• SIGMA-1 : development of a methodology « Mw
from crustal coda waves » = analog signal(Denieul et al., 2015)
• Large period of observations ++• Qualitative method --
Mw from classical approach• Based on the low frequency radiated
energyimpossible for low event• Empirical & local method (Mw = Mw ± 1)
Cara et al., 2015
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201st symposium - November 28th, 2017
FOCUS ON QUANTIFICATION OF M & H ESTIMATIONS
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2. INVERSION through
MONTE CARLO method
DATA
1. COMPUTATION OF FAST
GREEN’S FUNCTION OF RTE
Attenuation properties
SIGNAL PROCESSING
SIMULATION
EXTRACTION OF THE SOURCEMAP of Mw & comparison
with SIHEX map
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CONCLUSIONS & OUTLOOKS
211st symposium - November 28th, 2017
WP2: KEEP IN MIND • WP2 = reduce uncertainties in 3-D
location and size (M) of the earthquake
• WP2 = diversified approaches (datamining, archeoseismicity, numerical method)
• WP2 = macroseismic & instrumental data
OUTLOOK
• Dec. 2017: toward FCAT-21 brainstorming session
• 2018: datamining process processing chain
• 2018: internship on macroseismic database to detectsite effect
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THANK YOU, QUESTIONS?
221st symposium - November 28th, 2017
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
June Nov. June Nov. June Nov. June Nov. June Nov.
DATA MINING
ARCHEOSEISMICITY
SITE EFFECTS IN HISTORICAL DATABASE
M & H OF HISTORICAL DATABASE
CZECH CATALOGUE
3D CRUST VELOCITY MODEL
QUANTIFICATION OF M & H
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THANK YOU
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Appendix
241st symposium - November 28th, 2017
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TASKS & OBJECTIVES
251st symposium - November 28th, 2017
Interactions with other Work Packages