the ancient mediterranean environment between science and history

© 2013 The Trustees of Columbia University in the City of New York ISBN 978 90 04 25343 8

The Ancient MediterraneanEnvironment between Science

and History

Edited by

W.V. Harris

LEIDEN • BOSTON2013


CONTENTS

List of Tables and Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viiNotes on Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiiiAbbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xviiPreface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix

What Kind of Environmental History for Antiquity? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1W.V. Harris

PART ONE

FRAMEWORKS

Energy Consumption in the RomanWorld . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Paolo Malanima

Fuelling Ancient Mediterranean Cities: A Framework for CharcoalResearch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Robyn Veal

PART TWO

CLIMATE

What Climate Science, Ausonius, Nile Floods, Rye, and Thatch Tell Usabout the Environmental History of the Roman Empire . . . . . . . . . . . 61Michael McCormick

Megadroughts, ENSO, and the Invasion of Late-Roman Europe by theHuns and Avars . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89Edward R. Cook

The RomanWorld and Climate: Context, Relevance of ClimateChange, and Some Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103Sturt Manning


vi contents

PART THREE

WOODLANDS

Defining and Detecting Mediterranean Deforestation, 800bce to700ce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173W.V. Harris

PART FOUR

AREA REPORTS

Problems of Relating Environmental History and Human Settlementin the Classical and Late Classical Periods: The Example ofSouthern Jordan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197Paula Kouki

Human-Environment Interactions in the Southern TyrrhenianCoastal Area: Hypotheses from Neapolis and Elea-Velia . . . . . . . . . . . 213Elda Russo Ermolli, Paola Romano, andMaria Rosaria Ruello

Large-Scale Water Management Projects in Roman Central-SouthernItaly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233Duncan Keenan-Jones

PART FIVE

FINALE

The Mediterranean Environment in Ancient History: Perspectivesand Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259AndrewWilson

Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327


ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE ROMANWORLD*

Paolo Malanima

Economic development has been supported, over the last two centuries, bya technical revolution in the use of power and energy. The introduction ofmodern machines, able to deliver huge quantities of work per unit of timeon the one hand, and the availability of cheap fossil energy sources on theother, have enormously increased productive capacity. Both changes werethe necessary although not sufficient conditions for the notable discontinu-ity in the economic history of the human populations and were the maindeterminants of a huge increase of output. The scarce availability both ofmechanical power and energy set a limit to the growth potential of pre-vious agricultural economies from the 5th millennium bc until the startof modern growth two centuries ago, and was the direct determinant ofphases of decline or collapse. We cannot but agree with the view presentedby E.A. Wrigley on pre-modern agricultural or ‘organic’ societies. His opin-ion is that ‘societies before the Industrial Revolutionwere dependent on theannual cycle of plant photosynthesis for both heat and mechanical energy.The quantity of energy available each year was therefore limited, and eco-nomic growth was necessarily constrained’.1 This was the main reason whydecreasing returns to labour prevailed in past agricultural civilisations, asthe English classical economists maintained.The topic of energy consumption as a whole has been only marginally

investigated in the case of the Roman world (though there has been someattention to particular energy sources such as wood). Previous attemptsto quantify energy consumption do not allow one to understand the pro-cedures followed.2 It is obviously impossible to present definite figures ofenergy consumption, since local conditions and the relations betweenhuman beings and the environment differed so much within the Roman

* I thank Elio Lo Cascio for his comments on a previous draft of this paper. I alsothank the participants in the conference ‘Growth and Factors of Growth in the AncientEconomy’, January 28–29, 2011, held in Chicago (with the support of the Federal Reserve Bankof Chicago), and particularly Alain Bresson and Joel Mokyr, for their comments.

1 Wrigley 2013, 1. See also Wrigley 2010 on the same topic.2 See the Appendix.


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Empire. It is possible, however, to present plausible data and plausible con-fidence intervals around the figures. This is a first step towards a comparisonof energy consumptionwithin past societies and between past societies andthe present world.The purpose of the presentwork is to focus on energy consumption in the

early Roman Empire; and, in particular, to identify the energy sources (§1),to quantify their exploitation (§2–3), and their constraints to the growthpotential (§4–5). The last section (§6)will bedevoted to thedynamics of theancient energy systems, that is the innovations in the technical exploitationof energy and its availability. The Appendix will present the procedurefollowed in the quantification of energy consumption in the Roman Empireand discuss alternative estimates.

1. The Input of Energy

Often it is not completely clear what actually were the sources of energyin past agrarian civilizations.3 The consequence is that any quantificationbecomes imprecise or, indeed, quite impossible. Although certainty is unat-tainable on the subject, a plausible order of magnitude is not out of reach.4There were three main inputs of energy in pre-modern agrarian civiliza-

tions from about 5000bc until 1800ad: food, firewood and fodder for workinganimals.5

Food has been the primary source of energy since the beginning of thehuman species. A second source, firewood, began to be exploited as fuelbetween 1,000,000 and 500,000 years ago. From thenuntil the Industrial Rev-olution it was the main provider of heat.6 The third source, fodder for draftanimals, began to supply mechanical work in the agricultural civilizationsbetween 5000 and 4000bc, that is since the exploitation of animal poweron a wide scale in agriculture and transportation. These were still the main

3 Here I refer to the energy sources with a cost (often an opportunity cost). Solar lightis important for our survival, but is free and then excluded from our calculations. The sameholds true for the vegetation of a forest, when not exploited by the humans. Water and windpower, when exploited through mills and sails (expensive to build), is included, while it isexcluded when not exploited for some productive activity. See, however, the Appendix formore information on the subject.

4 I have discussed this topic in greater depth inMalanima (forthcoming). See the follow-ing Appendix on the quantification of energy consumption in the early Roman Empire.

5 I have examined the transitions among energy systems in greater depth in Malanima2010.

6 Perlès 1977; Goudsblom 1992.


energy consumption in the roman world 15

energy carriers of ancient Mediterranean civilization. The discovery of fireon the one hand and the exploitation of draft animals on the other, markedtwo main changes in the history of technology. The most recent change hasbeen the spread of thermal machines over the last two centuries. In thelong period between the first exploitation of animal power in agricultureand the steam engine, so for almost seven millennia, no radical change, ormacroinvention,7 occurred in the exploitation of energy, although severalminor changes took place.Food consumption has not changed so very much during the long his-

tory of mankind, at least in term of calories. Even in the case of ancientGreek and Roman civilizations, we can assume a daily average consump-tion of 2–3,000 calories;8 as recent estimates indicate. In particular, ‘the dietof the Mediterranean region with its high population density was probablymarked bymuch lower overall meat consumption’.9 Porkmeat ‘was a promi-nent food of the urban high-income strata of society, whereas the poorerancient Romanpopulation consumedprimarily vegetarian food’.10Althoughwithin awide geographic area such as the Roman Empire differences in dietwere remarkable, the intake of calories was necessarily similar.11Regional variations in firewood consumption were much wider and de-

pended on two main variables: temperature and industrial demand. InMediterranean civilizations the amount of 1kg. of wood (that is about 3,000kcal.) per head per day can be assumed as the lowermargin of a likely range,given the relatively high temperature in this area of the world. Calculationsof industrial consumption by metallurgy and other industries (such as pot-tery, glass and tile production) and services (such as baths) suggest thatanother half kg. could be added to this daily amount, at least in regionswith widespread industrial activity. This half kg. more is, however, a rela-tively high estimate, based on what we know on early Modern Europe.12For the early Roman Empire only rough estimates on wood consumptionby metallurgy are possible.13Differences in firewood consumption certainlyexisted within the Roman world and derived from the regional differences

7 I use here the word ‘macroinvention’ following Mokyr 1990.8 Here I use the terms of kilocalorie (kcal.) or calorie as synonyms, although they are not.

Actually, a kilocalorie (the correct unit of measure when we speak of food or heat) is 1,000calories.

9 Koepke and Baten 2008, 132.10 Koepke and Baten 2008, 142.11 See Jongman 2007b.12 Kander et al. 2013.13 See the Appendix.


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in temperature and industrial development. A range between 1 and 2kg.,that is between 3,000 and 6,000 calories per head per day, seems plausi-ble.14 According to a calculation of biofuels consumption on a world scaleabout 1850, that is when wood was still the main fuel, the per capita aver-age was 2.3kg. and this average was far lower in the South.15 When takinginto account the high temperatures in the SouthernMediterranean and theexistence of regions with poor industrial activity, a lower estimate of fire-wood consumption of about 3,000 kcal. per head per day, that is 1kg., seemsplausible for the Roman Empire. A consumption of 6,000 kcal, equivalentto 2kg. of wood, could however have been reached in cold regions, in themountains, or in areas with relatively high industrial activity.16As to the contribution by draft animals to the energy balance, an estimate

can be based on the ratio between their consumption of fodder (expressedin some energy measure) and population. We follow, in this case, the sameprocedure we use today to establish the average consumption of oil in acountry: that is, dividing the oil consumed among the population. The onlydifference being that in pre-modern agrarian civilizations, we are mainlydealing with biological converters and that their fuel is food intake. Fromthe available information on the size of ancient working animals17 and thedraft animals-population ratio,18 we then estimate how much energy wasconsumed per head dividing the calories of fodder intake by the population.The range of a plausible consumption is 1,000–2,000 kcal. per head per day.The only energy carriers not provided by the land through photosynthe-

sis in ancient agricultural civilizationswerewind, used to drive sailing ships,and water, exploited for mills as from the 3rd century bc.19 An estimate ofthe consumption of the energy of wind and water is difficult.20 We know,however, for the earlyModernAge, that their contribution to the energy bal-ance hardly represented more than 1 percent of the total energy consumed.It seemsplausible to assume thatwatermills and sailing shipswere notmorenumerous in theRomanEmpire than inmedieval and earlymodern Europe.

14 The article byHarris 2011a is important for the quantification of firewood consumption.15 Fernandes et al. 2007 (see the auxiliary material for the article in http://onlinelibrary

.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GB002836/suppinfo). The consumption of biofuels in the Medi-terranean regions was lower than the average.

16 See the lower energy consumption proposed by Smil 2010, reported in the Appendix tothis paper.

17 On the topic see in particular Kron 2000, 2002, and 2004. See also Ward-Perkins 2005,Ch. VII and Fig. 7.3.

18 This ratio is hard to establish for ancient economies. See, however, the Appendix.19 Wilson 2002a and 2008b and Lo Cascio and Malanima 2008.20 But see the Appendix.



Inmere quantitative terms, the role of wind andwater in pre-modern agrar-ian societies was negligible, although they were very important from thetechnological viewpoint. Actually, sailing ships and watermills were theonly engines whose mechanical work did not derive from the metabolismof food.21 Together these engines provided 100 percent of the mechanicalenergy by non-biological converters.

2. A Quantification

Table 1 presents a likely consumption range for the ancient Mediterraneanin the age of the early Roman Empire, that is the 1st century and the first halfof the 2nd, up until the Antonine Plague. As we see, energy consumptionis comprised between 6,000 and 11,000 kcal. per capita per day (or 9.2–18.4Gigajoules per year). We see also that half of consumption consisted of foodfor humans and draft animals, the other half of firewood.

Table 1. Energy consumption in the early Roman Empire (in Gj. per capita per yearand kcal. per capita per day).

Gj/year Kcal/day %Sources of energy Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max.Food for humans 3.1 4.6 2,000 3,000 33 27Fuel 4.6 9.2 3,000 6,000 50 55Fodder for animals 1.5 3.0 1,000 2,000 17 18

Total 9.2 16.8 6,000 11,000 100 100

Sources: see text and Appendix.

Today World energy consumption is 50,000 kcal. per capita per day or 76.5gigajoules (Gj.) per year. In Europe it is notably higher: 100,000 kcal. per day(153 Gj. per year). At the beginning of modern growth, in the early decadesof the 19th century, World average consumption per capita was 7–10,000kcal. per day (10–15 Gj. per year) and the European 15,000 kcal. per day(23 Gj. per year).22 Around 1850, consumption per head of the three mainsources of energy (food, firewood and fodder) in Northern Mediterranean

21 Technical change inmaritime technology was continuous and certainly contributed toenhance the exploitation of wind power, although, in mere quantitative terms, the energyconsumed by sailing ships remained modest. See now, on changes in maritime technology,Harris and Iara 2011.

22 Malanima 1996 and 2010.


18 paolo malanima

countries (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy) ranged between 11,500 and 13,500kcal. per day.23 A Mediterranean average including Northern Africa andthe Near East (for which we have no data until 1970) would certainly belower.24 Thus, a plausible result is that per capita energy consumption inthe ancient Roman world was 5–6 times less than the World average in2000 and 10 times less than the European average at the same date. It wasalso a little lower than that of the Northern Mediterranean countries at thebeginning of industrialisation. The Roman Empire includedmany Southernregions, where the consumption of firewoodwas certainly lower than in theMediterranean countries of Europe at the start of industrialisation.It is hard to specify the impact of the production of energy on the envi-

ronment in the early Roman Empire. If we assume that food productionrequired half a hectare per capita,25 firewood half a hectare of forest and fod-der for draft animals another half hectare, then per capita requirement was1.5 hectares. This estimate is nothing but a plausible average (based mainlyon late medieval-early modern European examples, where the productivityof fields, meadows and forests was quite similar to that in Roman antiq-uity).In around 165ad, the Roman Empire measured 3,800,000km2.26 Accept-

ing the previous calculations regarding consumption and soil per head, toprovide energy for the 70 million inhabitants living in the Empire 1,050,000km2were necessary, which is 25–30 percent of the total. If we assume a pop-ulation of 100million, plausible as well for themiddle of the 2nd century ad,the need of soil to support energy production becomes 1,500,000km2, whichis 40 percent of the Empire. If we exclude the mountains (lands more than600 metres high), which in the Mediterranean regions cover 20–25 percentof the total area and were hard to exploit, the extent of the agrarian soilin the Roman Empire becomes about 3,000,000km2. In this case, accord-ing to the two previous population estimates, the share covered by fields,exploitable woods andmeadows becomes respectively 33 and 50 percent ofthe total area. These shares naturally rise if we subtract from the total extentnot only themountains, but also hilly lands hard to cultivate, marshes, lakesand urban areas.

23 Kander et al. 2013.24 For these countries the series elaborated by IEA (International Energy Agency) start

only from the 1970s.25 Fallow land is not included.26 I take both the extent of the Empire and the inhabitants from Scheidel 2007, 48.



3. Efficiency and Energy Intensity

Only a part of energy input is actually transformed into useful energy (orenergy services, that is mechanical work, light and useful heat). How greatthis share is depends on the efficiency of the converters of energy, that islabour (L) and capital goods (K ). The thermodynamic efficiency (η) of thesystem of energy can be represented through the following ratio betweenthe energy services (Eu) and the total input of energy (Ei):

η = EuEi

Today, in our developed economies, this ratio is about 0.35; that is 35 percentof the input of energy becomes actualmechanical work, light or useful heat.In past agricultural civilizations, the efficiency was much lower. A plausi-ble calculation is easier for the past, when biological converters prevailed,than for the present. Today, in fact, the variety of machines, with diverseyields, make any estimate hard. The ratio between useful mechanical workand input of energy into biological converters, such as humans andworkinganimals, is around 15–20 percent.27 Part of the intake of energy in the form offood is not digested and is expelled as waste, whilst the main part is utilizedas metabolic energy in order to repair the cells, digest and preserve bodyheat. A human being or animal consumes even when inactive. The use offirewood is even less efficient. The greater part of the heat is dispersed with-out any benefit for those who burn the wood. Its yield is about 5–10 percent.Overall, the efficiency of a vegetable energy system based on biological con-verters, such as that of ancient civilizations, was around 15 per cent at themost: that is 1,000–1,500 kcal. were transformed into usefulmechanicalworkor heat; the rest was lost. Thermal machines are much more efficient thanbiological converters such as animals and humans.Another measure of efficiency in the use of energy is the ratio between

the energy input and output, that is GDP. It represents the energy intensity,or the quantity of energy we need to produce a unit of output (Y ):

i = EiY

27 See the useful Herman 2007.


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This ratio depends on the efficiency of the converters, but, contrary tothe previous ratio, it also depends on the structure of production, thatis the relative importance of the different sectors and subsectors withinthe economy. Some sectors (e.g. industry and especially heavy industry)consume much more energy per unit of output than others (e.g. someservices). If there is a change in the relative importance of any specificsector, energy intensity changes as well, even without any change in thethermodynamic efficiency of the converters. It is apparent that the impactof energy use on the environment depends both on the amount of energyexploitation and on energy intensity; higher intensity implying a higherimpact on the environment. In past agricultural civilizations, for any unitof GDP (e.g. 1 dollar), the expense of energy was higher than today. Around2000, in Western Europe, energy intensity was 7–8 Megajoules per dollar.28In past agrarian economies it was at least twice as much, since mechanicalconverters of energy are more efficient than biological converters. In 1800Western Europe, that is before the start of industrialization, it was 12–14Megajoules per dollar. Assuming that in the early Roman Empire energyintensity was the same as in pre-modern European societies, the level of percapita GDP would be about 1,000 dollars (1990 intern. $ Purchasing ParityPower).29

4. The Energy Constraints

Vegetable energy carriers, such as those exploited in past pre-modern civ-ilizations, are reproducible. The sun’s energy enables a continuous flow ofexploitable phytomass and the circulation of water and wind. Although theavailability of these carriers was and is endless,30 and the energy systembased on them was and is sustainable, their increase was hard and time-consuming. A large part of working time in pre-modern economies wasaimed at providing energy. All in all, the expense31 for energy (food, firewoodand fodder) could represent 60–70 percent of the average income. In pre-modern economies consumption represented, at least, 80 percent of GDP.32

28 International 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars Purchasing Parity Power.29 See on the topic Lo Cascio and Malanima 2009; forthcoming.30 Actually, it is not endless, but the Sun’s light will still reach the Earth for 5 billion years.31 Including the opportunity cost when a source of energy is provided directly by the

consumer himself.32 Malanima 2009, chap. VII.



Although this 80 percent was not devoted completely to providing energy,the expense for food and firewood was remarkable.Since all sources of energy came from the soil and soil is not endless, the

consequence during epochs of demographic rise was a fall in soil per workerand then decreasing returns to labour. The main change taking place fromthe start of modern growth has been the elimination of the dependenceof the energy system on the soil’s constraint. When demand increases, itis much easier to provide coal, oil or natural gas, than the vegetable carri-ers utilized in past agrarian economies. Since in pre-modern organic veg-etable energy systems, the transformation of the Sun’s radiation by plantsinto phytomass, thanks to photosynthesis, was central and climatic condi-tions can heavily influence the output of energy, climatic phases markedthe past history of mankind. Short-term deviations from the average tem-perature or precipitations resulted in dramatic increases or falls in energyavailability: the well-known years of plenty and the frequent famines of theagricultural economies. Long-run changes were much less felt or were evenunnoticed, although they influenced agricultural production, thus the over-all availability of energy, and, consequently, total output and populationtrends.The second important constraint of all pre-modern energy systems was

the low power of the converters, which resulted in a low working capacityper unit of time. The high standard of living ofmodern societies is the resultof the higher output per unit of time or higher labour productivity. Thepower of aman in everyday work is the same as a 40-watt lamp, or 0.05–0.07Horse Power (HP). Thepower of a horse is 15–20 timeshigher. In pre-moderncivilizations, the most powerful engines were watermills, whose power wasabout 3 HP, and sailing ships, which could even reach 50 HP.33 To clarifythis central point about the differences between past and modern energysystems, wemust remember that the power of an average car (80 kilowatts)is equal to the power of 2,000 people and that the power of a big generatingelectric station (800megawatts) is the same as that of 20million people. Theelectric power of a medium sized nation such as Italy in 2000 equals 80,000megawatts, which is the same power as that of 2 billion people. Today, anuclear plant or a nuclear bomb can concentratemillions of HP, or theworkof many generations of humans and draft animals, into a small space and afraction of time.

33 I neglect here the employment of power for military purposes. A catapult was aningenious concentration of power.


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While the adoption of new energy carriers in the past two centuries hasgreatly expanded the quantity of energy at our disposal, an equally keydevelopment has been new technology (machinery) able to concentratelarge amounts of work in particular locations in order to carry out specifictasks. This concentration of work allows humans to accomplish tasks thatwere barely imaginable just a few lifetimes ago. It was the first step towarda new control of the natural forces at a level inconceivable in past agrariancivilizations.

5. Innovations

The progress of technology in the ancient Mediterranean world did notreveal interruptions or declines:34 ‘the use ofmachineswasmorewidespreadin ancient Greece and Rome, together with ancient China, than in any othercivilization until certainly the 12th or perhaps the 14th century A.D. inWest-ern Europe’.35 On the other hand, looking at the problem of technical inno-vation from the viewpoint of energy, Roman technology consisted primarily,as J-P. Vernant wrote, ‘in the application of the human and animal forcethrough a variety of tools, and not in the utilisation of the forces of naturethrough the use of machines’.36 The introduction of new tools, that is micro-inventions, was continuous. In a sense this flow of innovationsmade humanwork more efficient, although this increase in efficiency, from the specificviewpoint of energy and power, was modest indeed.As suggested by A. Bresson, in the 1st century ad,37 Hero’s work demon-

strates the knowledge of all the main elements for constructing a steamengine, such as the conversion from rotatory to alternating movement, thecylinder and piston, non-return valves and gearings: ‘the main technicalelements embodied in the Newcomen engine were, if not in function atleast well known in the Hellenistic age’.38 We can wonder, however, howwidespread this knowledge actually was.With the exception of Hero’s work,no other mention of the use of steam is available in ancient literary texts orarchaeological remains.We know that in England coal began to be used on a wide scale from

the 1st century ad both for domestic usage and for the melting of metals.

34 Greene 2000; Schneider 2007.35 Wilson 2008b, 362.36 Vernant 1957, 207.37 Described in Pneumatica 2.11.38 Bresson 2006, 72.



Fig. 1. Dated remains of coal in England 1–500ad (%of the total dated remains every50 years). Source: based on data in Smith 1997.

Coal has been recovered from 70 archaeological sites in England andWales.Its chemical analysis has allowed these remains to be dated (Figure 1).39Although we cannot quantify the level of consumption, we can specify thechronology of its exploitation. When the Romans conquered England, coalwas already exploited. Its utilization spread and attained a maximum levelfrom the 2nd until the 4th century. At least until the 5th century ad, coalcontinued to be used on a wide scale. Later it almost disappeared.Coal, however, is very unevenly distributed across the globe, and, apart

from Australia, is almost entirely found in a few parts of the Northernhemisphere, that is, North America, North-Western and Eastern Europe,Russia and China. The centres of ancient civilizations and especially theMediterranean regions are not comprised in the geography of coal. The highprice of firewood on the one hand and the lack of coal on the other didnot allow the transition towards a new energy system in a Mediterraneancivilization.40

39 The decline of the curve in Figure 2 coincides with economic decline in Britain. See thetrend of the British economy described by Ward-Perkins 2005, Ch.V.

40 Bresson 2006, 77.


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6. An Energy Crisis?

It is still hard to quantify the rise in population during the millenniumspanned by ancient Mediterranean civilizations. While historians do notagree on the figures, they do agree, on the trend of population. In 800bc,some 20 million people lived around the Mediterranean Sea, whereas in150ad the population of theRomanEmpire numbered 70million,41 althoughthe estimate of 100million could be equally plausible, given the uncertaintyof any estimate for that period. Such a level of populationwas again attainedby the European continent (without Russia), only in the early modern cen-turies. Although a calculation of the carrying capacity of theMediterraneanworld is risky, the estimates proposed above regarding the extent of landnecessary to support the population in energy sources do suggest that therising population put pressure on resources. Data on decreasing returns tolabour are, however, scanty and uncertain.It has been suggested that body size diminished inWestern Europe from

150ad, after a period of rise.42On the topic, however, there is no certainty atall. Koepke and Baten write that ‘during Roman times we have more or lessstagnating heights’.43 If stature actually diminished, probably it diminishedlater in Central and Northern Europe (e.g. Germany) than in the Mediter-ranean regions.44A wider knowledge begins to be available on climate and we can start to

speculate on the possible influence of climatic changes on the availabilityof energy sources. On this topic as well, the evidence is still contradictory,however.For a long time the rising pressure of population was supported by rising

temperatures in the Mediterranean and the whole of the Northern hemi-sphere, during theAncient Climatic Optimum.45Historians agree on the exis-tence of a Roman Warm Period.46 Research on ice carrots from Greenlandice core and the ratio of two oxygen isotopes (18O/16O) provides a recordof ancient water temperature and then climatic oscillations. On this basischanges in temperature have been reconstructed over several million years.Annual changes from the 1st century bc are represented in Figure 2.

41 Scheidel 2007, 47.42 This is the opinion expressed by Jongman 2007a, based on data collection by Geertje

M. Klein Goldewijk. See also Kron 2005 and 2008.43 Koepke and Baten 2008, 150.44 Koepke n.d.45 Haas 2006, 147–150.46 Sallares 2007, 19. See also the long-term view in Blender et al. 2006.



Fig. 2. Oxygen isotopes in the ice carrot GISP2 (Greenland glacier ice core) 60bc–350ad. Source: Rossignol 2012, 97.

We can see that the two centuries bc were favourable from a climaticviewpoint. Temperatures were high during that period and remained sountil the middle of the 2nd century ad. Some historians suggest that, after150ad temperatures diminished remarkably, as the curve in Figure 2 shows.Very little, however, is known about the evolution of climate in theMediter-ranean.Rossignol has claimed that ‘a remarkableworseningof the climatic condi-

tions’ occurred from about 150ad. Themiddle of the 2nd century ‘witnessesthe end of a warm period during which the ratio of the oxygen isotopeshad attained levels which would only be reached again in the 20th cen-tury’.47 The presence in the ice carrots of sulphuric acid, dated between 153and 162, reveals the influence of volcanic eruptions on the fall in tempera-tures.48Higher temperaturesmean that the season for harvesting vegetablesis longer; that land can be cultivated at higher altitudes and further North.49Soil per worker rises when temperatures are milder.The opinion expressed by S.W. Manning is more cautious: ‘A range of

records indicate that a stable and reasonably positive (warm, and in a num-ber of areas or cases also mainly moist) climate regime was in place for theperiod from about the 2nd century bc through the 2nd century ad. This

47 Rossignol 2012, 96. See also Manning this volume, Fig. 8.48 Rossignol and Durost 2007.49 See also Weinstein 2009.


26 paolo malanima

Fig. 3. Intensity of precipitations between 400bc and ad400 (and range of error)(mm. per year). Source: Büntgen et al. 2011, 581.

unusual status, reducing some of the typical variability, uncertainty andrisks of theMediterraneanclimate regime for farming,wouldhavebeencon-ducive to the growthof theRomanworld. Itwas also anespecially favourabletime (warm, moist) for both agricultural and demographic expansion incentral and northern Europe’.50 According to Manning, ‘the stability of theprevious several centuries ended; agricultural uncertainty and bad yearswould have increased’. It is hard, however, to specify the turning pointtowards decreasing temperatures. The 2nd century does not reveal, in hisopinion, a clear declining trend.Precipitation has been reconstructed for the region of Israel51 and for

Germany and Switzerland.52 We know that it diminished and the climatebecame drier when the temperature was falling (Figure 3). In Central Eu-rope, precipitation peaked in 100bc, but from then on diminished, reachinga minimum in ad300 (100 millimetres less than in the second century bc).The climate became ‘increasingly dry’.53 According to Manning, ‘the 2nd to

50 Manning this volume.51 Orland et al. 2009.52 Büntgen et al. 2011, 581.53 Schmidt and Gruhle 2003a and 2003b.



5th or 6th centuries ad seem to be relatively arid in several areas of theeastern Roman empire, and the indications of less favourable climate condi-tions further East into central Asiamayhave been one of the forcings behindthemovements of populations that led to invasions/migrations into the lateRoman world’.54The pressure of population on the energy resources both to provide food

(and then widen the arables) and firewood resulted in a decline of theforested areas.55 ‘By the end of the Republic, most of the areas of Italy thatwere accessible to Romehad lostmost of their stands of tall trees, but exceptfor some metal-working centres, most places had stabilized their fuel sup-plies. Patches of eroded land continued to multiply, however, all the waythrough the high-imperial period of prosperity’.56 In Spain, ‘climate dete-rioration’ would have hampered ‘vegetation recovery after fire and exacer-bate[d] human impact (deforestation) in general’.57 In such cases, because ofthe need to meet the inelastic demand for food, the livestock andmeadowsdiminish (although for the ancient world nothing certain can be said on thematter). Intensification occurred in agriculture and convertible husbandryspread to support the demographic rise at least in Italy.58 For a comparison,in Europe, between 1500 and 1700, the 40 percent rise in population, from80 to 120 million,59 resulted in a 20 percent decrease in agricultural productper capita (that is energy, since the greater part of energy came from thefields).60Population pressure on the energy sources diminished certainly after the

Antonine Plague, that spread between 160 and 170ad,61 as archaeologicalwood remains from Central Europe seem to suggest (Figure 4).By themselves, neither population rise nor climatic changes are necessar-

ily connected to phases of economic decline. Their coincidence can, how-ever, deeply influence the economy and provoke destructuration and finallycollapse.

54 Manning this volume.55 See, however, the reconstruction by Kaplan et al. 2009. See also Ruddiman and Ellis

2009.56 Harris 2011a, 139.57 Kaal et al. 2011, 172.58 Forni and Marcone 2002.59 Russia is included in these estimates of population.60 Kander et al. 2013.61 See especially Lo Cascio 2012.


28 paolo malanima

Fig. 4. Estimates of forest clearance in Central Europe (Germany, North-EasternFrance) from archaeological wood remains 200bc–400ad (decadal data; any pointof the diagram represents the intensity of the felling). Source: Büntgen et al. 2011,580.

Conclusion

The energy system of ancient Mediterranean civilizations was the sameas that of all agrarian societies. Despite the increase in useful knowledgeand the extensive development of the agrarian energy basis, supported bya favourable climatic phase, this system was finally unable to support theincreasing needs of the rising population (as always in agrarian civilisa-tions). If we follow the economic approach by the classical economists,rephrased by E.A. Wrigley with particular reference to energy, an increasingpressure on the resources by the risingpopulationwouldhavebeen followedby decreasing returns and then diminishing energy availability, after somecenturies of rising population. Data showing a clear economic trend for thefirst centuries of the Empire are almost entirely lacking, but an unfavourableclimatic phase, beginning probably, but not certainly, in the second half ofthe 2nd century ad, contributed to a decline.Much later, during the Little Ice Age, in the early modern centuries, the

reaction to a similar crisis was a much wider use of coal.62 This main changedeveloped in England since the 16th century. Then, in the 18th century, thesteam engine began to interact with the new, rising input of energy. This

62 The topic is discussed in Malanima 2010 and 2011.



interaction initially began to involve the Central and Northern Europeanregions and subsequently also the regions far from the centre of the greatchange then in progress. The combination of changes in power and energywas the basis ofmodern growth. Just as inmany other pre-modern societies,the structure of the energy system prevented ancient Mediterranean civi-lizations from following a similar path. Ancient growth found in its energybasis a main constraint to its further economic progress.


30 paolo malanima

Appendix

Estimates of Energy Consumption in the Early Roman Empire

A wider analysis of per capita energy consumption in the early RomanEmpire is presented in Malanima (forthcoming). The topic of energy con-sumption in pre-modern economies is also discussed in Malanima 1996,2006, 2009, 2010, 2011 (www.paolomalanima.it).As seen above (§1–2), sources of energy of pre-modern, agricultural econ-

omies are the following:

1. food;2. fuel (almost always firewood);3. fodder for working animals;4. water and wind power.

1. FoodFood consumption has always been the most stable energy carrier everexploited since the beginning of the human species. In the following dia-gram (Figure 5), I report the series presented by Jongman (2007b, 599), oncalorie consumption in present day populations. Taking into account theage structure in Roman antiquity, with more young people than today, therange of 2–3,000 calories seems plausible. Considering yields per hectare,to cover the needs of a family of 5 people, about 5 hectares were necessary,including fallow lands. Thus a family needed between 2.5–3.3 hectares ofcultivated land (excluding fallows): i.e. from half to two-thirds of a hectareper person (for data on yields, and soil per capita necessary to satisfy fooddemand, see Forni and Marcone 2002, on agriculture in Roman Italy).

2. FirewoodAs said in §1, firewood consumptiondepends on temperature and industrialuse. One kg. ofwood can be seen as the lowest possible level of consumption(as also stated by Harris 2011a; see also data in Pireddu 1990, 27). Althoughhard to quantify, firewood consumption was low where temperatures werehigh andhighwhere temperatureswere low (see, for instance, data inWarde2006, referring to early modern Europe). If, to simplify, we assume thatin a Mediterranean climate, each individual consumed 1 cubic metre ofwood per year, that is 625kg., including industrial uses as fuel (1.7kg. perday), this amount of wood could be provided by the yearly growth of halfa hectare of forest (Chierici 1911, 232–233). Assuming that the populationof the Roman Empire in around 165ad was 70 million inhabitants for an



Fig. 5. Food consumption by modern populations according to age (kcal.) Source:Jongman 2007b, 599.

area of 3,800,000km2, and that every inhabitant consumed 1 cubic metreof firewood (including wood from prunings), then the total requirementwas 70 million cubic metres. It could be provided by a wooded area of350,000km2, or 9–10 percent of the total inhabited surface of the Empire.With a population of 100 million inhabitants, the wooded area rises to500,000km2, or about 13 percent of the total. A city such as Rome, with 1million inhabitants in the age of Augustus, needed 50km2 of forest to coverits needs.As to industrial consumption, we can only provide some calculations

fromwhat we know about the output of metallurgy. Let us assume that ironproduction was between 80,000 and 160,000 tons per year (cf. Harris 2011a)and, at the lowest, a consumption level of 30kg of firewood (transformedinto charcoal) per kg. of iron (Smil 1994, 144–156). Charcoal, known in Egyptas early as the 3rd millennium bc, was widely used in Greek-Roman antiq-uity (Wikander 2008, 138). For the production of 80,000 tons of iron, thequantity of firewoodwould thus be 2,400,000 tons (converted into charcoal).In cubic metres, the requirement was 3,840,000 (assuming 625kg. per cubicmetre, and then dividing 2,400 million kg. by 625). With a yearly productiv-ity of half a cubic metre per hectare of forest, in order to produce 3,840,000cubicmetres, 1,920,000hectares or 19,200km2werenecessary.Assuming ironoutput being twice as high, the need amounts to 38,400km2 of forest. This


32 paolo malanima

area is only 5–10 percent of the total forest required by the population forheating and cooking. As said before (§1), other industries (such as pottery,glass and tile production) and services (such as baths) exploited wood. Anestimate is, in this case, impossible. Fuels different from firewood repre-sented a negligible share of the total. Thus, our estimate for a Southern,Mediterranean civilization such as the Roman Empire is between 1 and 2kg.of wood, that is 3,000–6,000 calories per capita per day.

3. FodderThe estimate of fodder consumed by draft animals is more complex. Fromthe viewpoint of energy, an ox or some other working animal is like amachine. It metabolizes vegetables to accomplish a task. In order to estab-lish the average consumption in energy sourcesperhead, the input of energyby a draft animal must be divided by the family members that exploit it.We know that improved fodder management and nutrition determined aremarkable increase in the size of animals during Graeco-Roman antiquity.Ley farming and meadows supplied animals with better fodder than in thelateMiddle Ages and early modern times (Kron 2000). Oxen were taller andheavier than in Medieval and early modern Europe: about 400kg instead of2–300 (Kron 2002 and 2004).We can establish a ratio between working animals and population in

ancient Mediterranean civilizations from the technical relationship sug-gested by ancient agronomists between land andworking animals. In the 1stcentury bc, Varro recalls the opinions of Cato and Saserna about the needof a yoke for every 80–100 iugera (20–25 hectares) (On agriculture 1.21–22).Since a yoke is composed of two oxen, the relationship is therefore a work-ing animal per 10–12.5 hectares. A century later, Columella tells of two yokesof oxen for a farm of 200 iugera (or 50 hectares) (On agriculture 2.12.1–7).Again we find a ratio similar to that suggested by Varro and relatively closeto the animal-land ratio found in earlyModern Europe. Since a peasant fam-ily required a farm of about 3–5 hectares to support its living (as shown in§1 of this App.), we could divide among the 10–15 members of two averagefamilies endowedwith a farm of 3–5 hectares each, the calories from fodderconsumedby oxen (25–30,000 kcal per animal per day) andwewould obtainthe result of 1,700–3,000 kcal. per head. We would have to add to this esti-mate horses (on which see Vigneron 1968), mules, donkeys and camels, andwe would also have to include urban inhabitants (excluded from the previ-ous draft animals-peasant families ratio) in the denominator of our ratio. Allthings considered, a range of 1,000–2,000 calories per day per capita seemsplausible.



4.Wind andWaterTheonly possibility of estimating the consumptionofwater andwindpoweris to start from power (work done per unit of time -1 second-). In the case ofa large sailing ship, with a carrying capacity of 400 tons, a rare example inthe ancient world, where the majority of sailing ships were below 100 tons(Greene 1986, 26), a relationship existed between tonnage and power. Thepowerof sucha ship (400 tons)was about 50HP (Malanima2006).Assuming(absurdly!) that this power was exploited fully for 24 hours and 365 days peryear, energy per year would be 438,000 HPh (Horse Power hour is a measureof energy), that is, 770,000 kcal. per day. We would now need a plausibleratio between ships and boats on one hand and population on the other.Even assuming the ratio existing in early modern Europe to be correct, theresult would be less than 1 percent of the entire energy consumption percapita.The watermill was the most powerful engine existing on land. Generally

its power did not exceed 2–3 HP, although examples of big mills (Munro2003) or the combination of several mills in powerful sets of engines are notlacking (Brun 2006; Wikander 1979, 2000 and 2008). The mechanical workproduced by a watermill endowed with the power of 2 HP is about 64,749kj. (15,000 kcal.) per day, and since a man consumes 2,550–3,000 kcal. perday as food, consumption of gravitational energy by a watermill is 6 timesthe energy consumption of food per capita. In late medieval and early mod-ern Europe, a ratio existed between watermills and population: 1 watermillevery 250 people. Otherwise stated, any small village of 50 families had itsownmill (on the topicMakkai 1981 is important). If we divide amill’s energyconsumption by 250, the result is 60 kcal. Certainly, the use of mechanicalenergy to grind cereals was a remarkable achievement of ancient civiliza-tion. Its contribution to the energy balance was, however, modest in merequantitative terms. Althoughwedonot know the inhabitant-watermill ratioin the ancient world, and even allowing for the existence of the same latemedieval ratio, which seems too high for antiquity, as early as the firstcenturies of the Roman Empire, the result is that the contribution to theenergy balance was indeed modest (Reynolds 1983; Lo Cascio and Malan-ima 2008).Let us consider that previous calculations on mills and ships assume

full-time work (24 hours per day), which is implausible. Contributions tothe energy balance assumingmore realistic working time imply a reductionof the available energy per head.


34 paolo malanima

The Estimates by IanMorris

Different estimates of energy consumption have been provided by IanMor-ris (2010a and 2010b). According toMorris (2010a, 28), the sources to be takeninto account for a calculation of energy consumption (including the onesused in modern economies) are the following:

Food (whether consumed directly, given to animals that provide labour, orgiven to animals that are subsequently eaten);

Fuel (whether for cooking, heating, cooling, firing kilns and furnaces, orpowering machines, and including wind and waterpower as well as wood,coal, oil, gas, and nuclear power);

Rawmaterials (whether for construction, metalwork, potmaking, clothing orany other purpose).

We can see that there is a similarity between this list and the sources takeninto account in this paper. However: 1. I do not include feed ‘given to ani-mals that are subsequently eaten’, since it is already included in the 2–3,000kcal. of food for humans (and it would be a duplication of the same sourcein our calculations). These animals certainly put a high pressure on carryingcapacity. If agricultural produce is not consumed directly by the population,but consumed by animals which are then eaten by the humans, the pres-sure on land is higher. In any case those animals are only used as food andare not exploited in agriculture or transport. They are part of human food;which enters the energy balance. As a consequence, I include only feed forworking animals; 2. it is not clear howMorris computes the contribution bywind and water power; 3. rawmaterials cannot be considered as energy car-riers and are not included in my estimates (or in those of the InternationalEnergy Agency or the US Energy Information Administration). Morris fol-lows, however, Cook 1971, who includes ‘vegetable fiber’, which brings ‘solarenergy into the economy through photosynthesis’ (134). See also Cook 1976,51 and 135. Rawmaterials, however, are not used as providers of energy. Fire-wood, is also generated by photosynthesis, hence when used as an energycarrier I include it in my calculations. When timber is used as raw materialfor construction, it is not included, despite being produced by photosynthe-sis. It is not an energy carrier in this case.The results by Morris are quite different from those presented in the

previous pages. In the following Table 2 some data are reported from twoseries presented by Morris (2010b, 628).



Table 2. Energy consumption in advanced regions of the West and East accordingto I. Morris. 8000bc–2000ad (thousands of kcal. per capita per day).

West East(000) (000)

2000 230 1041900 92 491800 38 361700 32 331500 27 301000 26 29.5200ad 30 261ad 31 27200bc 27 248000 6 5

Source: Morris 2010b, 628.

Around2000, the averageworld energy consumptionwas 50,000 calories perday. According toMorris’ estimate, in 200bc someparts of theWorld alreadyexceeded this level even without fossil fuels.In both works by Morris (2010a and 2010b), previous data (reported in

Table 2) for the year 2000 actually refer to the most advanced countriesin the West (USA) and in the East (Japan). In addition, data for previousyears refer to ‘the most developed core within the West’ (Morris 2010b, 42),whose borders, however, are not clearly defined. In any case, Morris’ resultsare too high. In 1800, according to recent research, energy consumption inWestern Europe (a highly developed part of the globe) was not 38,000 kcal.(as maintained by Morris), but about 15,000 (average for Sweden, Norway,The Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, Portugal and Italy) (Kander et al.2013 and data published in Gales et al. 2007). In 1900, for the same countriesof Western Europe, the average was 41,500 kcal. per day per capita, and not92,000 (as in the previous Table 2). In England itwas 95,000.Morris’ estimatefor 1900 is only plausible if by ‘West’ we refer only to England. Aswe see, datafor the Roman Empire are also quite different from ours. Even if we take themost advanced part of the Roman Empire, Italy, in 1861, that is, the year ofthe Unification of the country, energy consumption per capita was 11–12,000calories (Malanima 2006), less than half the estimate proposed byMorris forthe West (31,000) in 1ad.Energy intensity represents the ratio between energy consumption and

GDP. InWestern Europe from 1800–1820 it was 12–15Megajoules per 1 dollar(1990 international Gery-Khamis dollars), when per capita GDP was 1,200


36 paolo malanima

dollars (according to the series by Maddison 2007, in 1990 internationalGeary-Khamis dollars PPP). If we assume the very high estimate of 1,500dollars for Roman Italy (taking into account that recent estimates hardlyexceed 1,000 dollars, as shown in Lo Cascio and Malanima 2009 and forth-coming), the resulting estimate of energy intensity, taking Morris’ estimateof 31,000 kcal. per head per day (and then 11,315,000 kcal. per year, or 47,342Gigajoules), is 32Mj. per dollar, and thusmore than twice that ascertained in1800 for Western Europe. With a GDP per capita of 1,000 dollars in the earlyRoman Empire, the implied energy intensity becomes 47 Mj. per dollar. Fora comparison, in 2000, World energy intensity was 11.5 Mj. per dollar (1990Geary-Khamis int. dollars) and in Europe it was 5.5 Mj. per dollar.Vaclav Smil (2010, 107–113) proposed estimates of energy consumption in

ancient Rome that are far lower than those by Morris. Here is the commentby Morris on Smil’s views: ‘Roman total energy capture would be some-where between 4,600 and 7,700 kcal/cap/day [according, that is, to Smil’scalculations]; if we assume that roughly 2,000 kcal/cap/day of this was food(whichmeans ignoring the archaeological evidence for relatively high levelsof expensive calories frommeat, oil, and wine), that leaves just 2,600–5,700kcal/cap/day to cover all other energy consumption’. To justify this estimate,Smil suggests that Roman fuel use was just 180–200kg. of wood equivalentper capita per year, or ‘roughly 1,750–2,000 kcal/cap/day’. Smil’s estimateof firewood consumption certainly seems too low. On the whole, however,Smil’s estimates are closer to mine than are those by Morris.


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