the 2016 new york state primary: what demographics and voting trends tell us
TRANSCRIPT
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8/18/2019 The 2016 New York State Primary: What demographics and voting trends tell us
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Mapping New York’s
Presidential Primary(with an emphasis on NYC)
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Presentation at City Limits/Gotham Gazette
discussion
“Our Turn: The 2016 Campaign Comes to !C"
#te$en %oma&e's(i
C)! *apping #er$ice
The Graduate Center / City )ni$ersity o+ e' !or(
''',e&ectionat&as,nyc
http://www.electionatlas.nyc/http://www.electionatlas.nyc/
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Who Can Vote in New YorkState?
5! million registered Democrats.
"# million registered Republicans.
It’s a closed primary, so the other "$
million registered voters in NYS "%& are shut out.
Data source: NYS Board of Elections, as analyzed by Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center
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'emorati enrollment
It’s a Democratic state no countybelo" 2#$ Democrats.
Do"nstate is largest concentration%
•2.& million Dems in NY'(•)lmost 1 million on *I + estchestercombined.
Some concentrations in upstatecounties -omp/ins, )lbany0 + cities-ualo, Rochester, Syracuse0.
Data source: NYS Board of Elections, as analyzed by Center for Urban Research, CUNY Graduate Center
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*P enrollment
6utside cities, 768 enrollment issubstantial -generally !#$ or moreper county0.
ut density is /ey%•9amilton 'o. has largest $ 768 -4:$0, butonly "+5,, -ep./lians in countycovering 0+%,, s1 mi.
•roo/lyn;s voter pop. is only
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Who will likely 2ote?
8ast elections can guide us though“past per+ormance is no guarantee o++uture resu&ts" especially in this
particularly unpredictable season.
In most recent presidential primaries%
•'em t.rno.t in ",,3 was !%&•*P t.rno.t in ",0" was %&
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4ow the 2ote res.lts willmatter
Pop.lar 2ote "ho ="ins> the state(bragging rights( momentum to"ard
conventions.
'elegate o.nt allocated mainly by'ongressional district( direct impacton "ho gets nominated ?or generalelection.
6ea lea2es "hat "ill local results
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",,3 'emorati primary
'linton v 6bama
'linton "on popular vote @4&$ to
3#$, and received 1!: o? 2!2delegates
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",07 'emorati primary
'uomo v eachout
Sanders loo/ing at eachout resultsA
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Primary 2oters in NYC
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8de 9lasio e:et;?
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6rends+ and ",0%
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Bor more in?o, contact%
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Steven Romale"s/i212C