8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 13

1 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

Key Facts About Florida

Voting DemographicsHow Changing Demographics and DAPA-Affected Voters

Could Impact the 2016 Elections

By Charles Posner and Lizet Ocampo December 11 2015

Te Unied Saes is undergoing a hisoric demographic shif People o color are

expeced o make up a majoriy o he populaion by 2044 bu he poliical implicaionsare already being el1 By 2016 demographic shifs will be influenial in shaping elec-

oral oucomes in many saes including Florida as voers o color become an increas-

ingly significan share o he elecorae

Moreover DAPA-affeced voers991252US ciizens o voing age living wih unauhor-

ized amily members who would be eligible or emporary relie rom deporaion

under Presiden Barack Obamarsquos Deerred Acion or Parens o Americans and Lawul

Permanen Residens or DAPA program991252will comprise sizable and poenially

decisive porions o key and emerging batleground sae elecoraes across he counry

including in Florida

The electoral impacts of a changing elec torate

In Florida voters of color comprise a larger portion of the electorate each year

bull Te whie elecorae dropped rom 81 percen o eligible voers in 1980 o 667 per-

cen in 2012 I is projeced o decrease urher o 645 percen by 20162

bull In 1980 4 percen o eligible voers in he sae were Laino in 2012 166 percen

were By 2016 he Florida elecoraersquos share o Laino eligible voers is expeced o

have increased by anoher 16 percenage poins o 182 percen3

8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 23

2 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

Floridarsquos changing demographics are making it lean more toward Democratsmdash

but it is still a toss-up

bull In 2004 Republican presidenial candidae George W Bush had a 12-percenage-

poin advanage over Democraic candidae John Kerry among Laino voers lead-

ing 56 percen o 44 percen4 In 2012 Democraic candidae Barack Obama won

60 percen o Laino voes while Republican Mit Romney received 39 percen a21-poin margin5

bull I Democras are able o hold ono 2012 levels o suppor rom voers o color

and urnou raes remain he same in 2016 (see Figure 1 2016 Simulaion 1) he

Democraic margin o vicory in Florida could yield a Democraic vicory o 507

percen o Republicansrsquo 488 percen in he presidenial elecion6

bull I voersrsquo pary preerences revered back o wha hey were in 2004 (see Figure 1

2016 Simulaion 2) when Republicans had higher levels o suppor rom voers o

color Republicans would see he presidenial race in Florida swing in heir avor win-ning by 515 percen o 488 percen7

bull I voers o color have pary preerences o 2004 and whie voers have pary

preerences o 2012 (see Figure 1 2016 Simulaion 3) Republicans will perorm

he sronges Te margin o vicory or a Republican candidae would be nearly 9

percenage poins

Source Anna Chu and Charles Posner How the Rising Share of Latino Voters Will Impact the 2016 Elections (Washington Center for AmericanProgress Action Fund 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressactionorgissuesimmigrationreport20151209126852

how-the-rising-share-of-latino-voters-will-impact-the-2016-elections

FIGURE 1

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in presidential elections

Democrats

2004

2012

2016 Simulation 1

2016 Simulation 2

2016 Simulation 3

Republicans

47

50

507

488

455

52

49

488

515

541

8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 33

3 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

The poli tical power of deferred action

In addition to the overall demographic shifts in Florida DAPA-affected voters

comprise a significant proportion of the statersquos electorate

bull In 2016 Florida voers who are personally affeced by DAPA will number more han

59000 Te projeced number o Floridarsquos DAPA-affeced voers in 2016 is 80 perceno Presiden Obamarsquos 2012 margin o vicory in he sae8

Full implementation of the deferred action initiatives would result in significant

economic gains for Florida

bull I DAPA Deerred Acion or Childhood Arrivals or DACA and DACA expansion

were all implemened Floridarsquos gross domesic produc would increase by $94 bil-

lion Florida residensrsquo cumulaive incomes would increase by $62 billion and more

han 11000 jobs would be creaed all cumulaively over 10 years9

Charles Posner is the Policy Manager at the Center for American Progress Action Fund

Lizet Ocampo is the Associate Director of Immigration at the Action Fund

Correction December 15 2015 Tis fact sheet has been updated to clarify the effect of

changing demographics on Floridarsquos voting electorate

In 2016 there will be

more than 59000

DAPA-affected voter

in Florida

Endnotes

1 Ruy Teixeira William H Frey and Rob Griffin ldquoStates ofChange The Demographic Evolution of the American Elec-torate 1974ndash2060rdquo (Washington Center for American Prog-ress Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Insti-tute 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementreport20150224107261states-of-change

2 Rob Griffin William H Frey and Ruy Teixeira ldquoInteractive The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate1980ndash2060rdquo Center for Americ an Progress February 242015 available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementnews20150224107166interactive-the-demographic-evolution-of-the-american-electorate-1980-2060

3 Ibid

4 NBC News ldquoExit Poll - Decision 2004 - Exit poll - presidentFloridardquo available at httpwwwnbcnewscomid5297152 (last accessed December 2015)

5 Florida exit poll data from CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Floridardquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateFLpresident (lastaccessed December 2015)

6 Anna Chu and Charles Posner ldquoHow the Rising Share ofLatino Voters Will Impact the 2016 Electionsrdquo (WashingtonCenter for American Progress Action Fund 2015) availableat httpswwwamericanprogressactionorgissuesimmi-grationreport20151209126852how-the-rising-share-of-latino-voters-will-impact-the-2016-elections

7 Ibid

8 Manuel Pastor Tom Jawetz and Lizet Ocampo ldquoDAPA Mat-ters The Growing Electorate Directly Affected by ExecutiveAction on I mmigrationrdquo (Washington Center for AmericanProgress 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationreport20151119125787dapa-matters

9 Silva Mathema ldquoInteractive State-by-State Analysis of theEconomic Impact of DACA DAPA and DACA ExpansionrdquoCenter for American Progress June 15 2015 available athttpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationnews20150615114894state-by-state-analysis-of-the-economic-impact-of-daca-dapa-and-daca -expansion

8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 23

2 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

Floridarsquos changing demographics are making it lean more toward Democratsmdash

but it is still a toss-up

bull In 2004 Republican presidenial candidae George W Bush had a 12-percenage-

poin advanage over Democraic candidae John Kerry among Laino voers lead-

ing 56 percen o 44 percen4 In 2012 Democraic candidae Barack Obama won

60 percen o Laino voes while Republican Mit Romney received 39 percen a21-poin margin5

bull I Democras are able o hold ono 2012 levels o suppor rom voers o color

and urnou raes remain he same in 2016 (see Figure 1 2016 Simulaion 1) he

Democraic margin o vicory in Florida could yield a Democraic vicory o 507

percen o Republicansrsquo 488 percen in he presidenial elecion6

bull I voersrsquo pary preerences revered back o wha hey were in 2004 (see Figure 1

2016 Simulaion 2) when Republicans had higher levels o suppor rom voers o

color Republicans would see he presidenial race in Florida swing in heir avor win-ning by 515 percen o 488 percen7

bull I voers o color have pary preerences o 2004 and whie voers have pary

preerences o 2012 (see Figure 1 2016 Simulaion 3) Republicans will perorm

he sronges Te margin o vicory or a Republican candidae would be nearly 9

percenage poins

Source Anna Chu and Charles Posner How the Rising Share of Latino Voters Will Impact the 2016 Elections (Washington Center for AmericanProgress Action Fund 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressactionorgissuesimmigrationreport20151209126852

how-the-rising-share-of-latino-voters-will-impact-the-2016-elections

FIGURE 1

Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida

Democratic and Republican shares of votes in presidential elections

Democrats

2004

2012

2016 Simulation 1

2016 Simulation 2

2016 Simulation 3

Republicans

47

50

507

488

455

52

49

488

515

541

8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 33

3 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

The poli tical power of deferred action

In addition to the overall demographic shifts in Florida DAPA-affected voters

comprise a significant proportion of the statersquos electorate

bull In 2016 Florida voers who are personally affeced by DAPA will number more han

59000 Te projeced number o Floridarsquos DAPA-affeced voers in 2016 is 80 perceno Presiden Obamarsquos 2012 margin o vicory in he sae8

Full implementation of the deferred action initiatives would result in significant

economic gains for Florida

bull I DAPA Deerred Acion or Childhood Arrivals or DACA and DACA expansion

were all implemened Floridarsquos gross domesic produc would increase by $94 bil-

lion Florida residensrsquo cumulaive incomes would increase by $62 billion and more

han 11000 jobs would be creaed all cumulaively over 10 years9

Charles Posner is the Policy Manager at the Center for American Progress Action Fund

Lizet Ocampo is the Associate Director of Immigration at the Action Fund

Correction December 15 2015 Tis fact sheet has been updated to clarify the effect of

changing demographics on Floridarsquos voting electorate

In 2016 there will be

more than 59000

DAPA-affected voter

in Florida

Endnotes

1 Ruy Teixeira William H Frey and Rob Griffin ldquoStates ofChange The Demographic Evolution of the American Elec-torate 1974ndash2060rdquo (Washington Center for American Prog-ress Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Insti-tute 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementreport20150224107261states-of-change

2 Rob Griffin William H Frey and Ruy Teixeira ldquoInteractive The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate1980ndash2060rdquo Center for Americ an Progress February 242015 available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementnews20150224107166interactive-the-demographic-evolution-of-the-american-electorate-1980-2060

3 Ibid

4 NBC News ldquoExit Poll - Decision 2004 - Exit poll - presidentFloridardquo available at httpwwwnbcnewscomid5297152 (last accessed December 2015)

5 Florida exit poll data from CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Floridardquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateFLpresident (lastaccessed December 2015)

6 Anna Chu and Charles Posner ldquoHow the Rising Share ofLatino Voters Will Impact the 2016 Electionsrdquo (WashingtonCenter for American Progress Action Fund 2015) availableat httpswwwamericanprogressactionorgissuesimmi-grationreport20151209126852how-the-rising-share-of-latino-voters-will-impact-the-2016-elections

7 Ibid

8 Manuel Pastor Tom Jawetz and Lizet Ocampo ldquoDAPA Mat-ters The Growing Electorate Directly Affected by ExecutiveAction on I mmigrationrdquo (Washington Center for AmericanProgress 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationreport20151119125787dapa-matters

9 Silva Mathema ldquoInteractive State-by-State Analysis of theEconomic Impact of DACA DAPA and DACA ExpansionrdquoCenter for American Progress June 15 2015 available athttpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationnews20150615114894state-by-state-analysis-of-the-economic-impact-of-daca-dapa-and-daca -expansion

8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 33

3 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics

The poli tical power of deferred action

In addition to the overall demographic shifts in Florida DAPA-affected voters

comprise a significant proportion of the statersquos electorate

bull In 2016 Florida voers who are personally affeced by DAPA will number more han

59000 Te projeced number o Floridarsquos DAPA-affeced voers in 2016 is 80 perceno Presiden Obamarsquos 2012 margin o vicory in he sae8

Full implementation of the deferred action initiatives would result in significant

economic gains for Florida

bull I DAPA Deerred Acion or Childhood Arrivals or DACA and DACA expansion

were all implemened Floridarsquos gross domesic produc would increase by $94 bil-

lion Florida residensrsquo cumulaive incomes would increase by $62 billion and more

han 11000 jobs would be creaed all cumulaively over 10 years9

Charles Posner is the Policy Manager at the Center for American Progress Action Fund

Lizet Ocampo is the Associate Director of Immigration at the Action Fund

Correction December 15 2015 Tis fact sheet has been updated to clarify the effect of

changing demographics on Floridarsquos voting electorate

In 2016 there will be

more than 59000

DAPA-affected voter

in Florida

Endnotes

1 Ruy Teixeira William H Frey and Rob Griffin ldquoStates ofChange The Demographic Evolution of the American Elec-torate 1974ndash2060rdquo (Washington Center for American Prog-ress Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Insti-tute 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementreport20150224107261states-of-change

2 Rob Griffin William H Frey and Ruy Teixeira ldquoInteractive The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate1980ndash2060rdquo Center for Americ an Progress February 242015 available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementnews20150224107166interactive-the-demographic-evolution-of-the-american-electorate-1980-2060

3 Ibid

4 NBC News ldquoExit Poll - Decision 2004 - Exit poll - presidentFloridardquo available at httpwwwnbcnewscomid5297152 (last accessed December 2015)

5 Florida exit poll data from CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Floridardquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateFLpresident (lastaccessed December 2015)

6 Anna Chu and Charles Posner ldquoHow the Rising Share ofLatino Voters Will Impact the 2016 Electionsrdquo (WashingtonCenter for American Progress Action Fund 2015) availableat httpswwwamericanprogressactionorgissuesimmi-grationreport20151209126852how-the-rising-share-of-latino-voters-will-impact-the-2016-elections

7 Ibid

8 Manuel Pastor Tom Jawetz and Lizet Ocampo ldquoDAPA Mat-ters The Growing Electorate Directly Affected by ExecutiveAction on I mmigrationrdquo (Washington Center for AmericanProgress 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationreport20151119125787dapa-matters

9 Silva Mathema ldquoInteractive State-by-State Analysis of theEconomic Impact of DACA DAPA and DACA ExpansionrdquoCenter for American Progress June 15 2015 available athttpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationnews20150615114894state-by-state-analysis-of-the-economic-impact-of-daca-dapa-and-daca -expansion